Cubs start a three game set against Phillies in Philadelphia. Cubs are currently trailing the Mets by 2 1/2 games ( 5 WAA ) in NL East. Phillies are right behind the Cubs
NL East
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYN | 55 | 37 | -47.0 | 55.8 | -4.6 | 19840722 |
| CHN | 54 | 41 | 49.4 | -18.2 | 6.4 | 19840722 |
| PHI | 53 | 42 | 38.9 | 32.8 | -31.6 | 19840722 |
Phillies have very good BAT and PITCH numbers based upon seasonal run differential. Their fielding is dragging them down however with an astonishing -31.6 UR which is #1 worst in MLB. Those of us from the future know this cripples the Phillies turning them into an 81-81, even steven, WAA=0 team by season end. Unearned runs are real and count equally with earned runs.
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 13 | X | 0.537 | X | 4.00 | -1.57 | -0.39 | |
| PHI | 11 | X | 0.463 | X | 1.91 | -2.41 | 1.19 |
Cubs a couple WAA ahead of the Phillies. If Phillies win today they are tied for second in NL East. Cubs fielding another maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup which we’ll see below. Phillies have a good lineup today as well. Both starters are under water. Cubs relief dropped from last series. We’ll see why below.
Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs around a 54% advantage today mostly due to their Lineup -> Starter Tier Combo advantage which is maxed out at integer +6 in Cubs favor ( 4.00 – [ -2.41 ] = 6 ).
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -092- | -1.49 | 145.0 | Rick_Sutcliffe | CHN | 5 | -1.57 |
| -037- | -2.37 | 66.0 | Shane_Rawley | PHI | 5 | -2.41 |
Sutcliffe still under water but improving since coming to Chicago. He came over from Cleveland with a -3.11 WAA which means he gained around 1.5 WAA in a month. A player who adds 1.5 WAA a month for a 6 month season is close to the very top of MLB.
Shane Rawley is having a bad year. He finishes this year at the exact same WAA as today, WAA = -2.37 and ranked #76 in the bottom 160. This means he pitches exactly average from now until the end of this season.
Let’s see what happens today.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 000003000 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 0 |
| PHI | 000100100 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 0 |
Sutcliffe pitches 8 innings giving up 2 earned runs. Lee Smith comes in and gets the save. Rawley gives up 3 in 5 2/3 innings which was enough for Cubs to win as they don’t score any against PHI relief.
CHN Lineup 198407230
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Bob_Dernier | CF | 381 |
| +026+ | 3.28 | Ryne_Sandberg | 2B | 431 |
| +033+ | 3.09 | Gary_Matthews | LF | 369 |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Keith_Moreland | RF | 281 |
| +055+ | 2.56 | Jody_Davis | CR | 355 |
| +086+ | 2.02 | Ron_Cey | 3B | 333 |
| +013+ | 4.07 | Leon_Durham | 1B | 312 |
| -031- | -2.54 | Larry_Bowa | SS | 275 |
| XXXXX | -0.38 | Rick_Sutcliffe | PR | 21 |
| TOTAL | 13.69 |
Leon Durham still batting low in the lineup. He might still be hurt and Frey wants to limit his plate appearances. Gary Matthews moving up the ranks now at #33. He finishes this year ranked #20 which is very good.
PHI Lineup 198407230
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.61 | Greg_Gross | LF | 102 |
| XXXXX | 1.03 | Von_Hayes | CF | 319 |
| +124+ | 1.47 | Juan_Samuel | 2B | 440 |
| +007+ | 4.64 | Mike_Schmidt | 3B | 392 |
| +115+ | 1.62 | Tim_Corcoran | 1B | 157 |
| XXXXX | -0.76 | Glenn_Wilson | RF | 268 |
| +069+ | 2.31 | Ozzie_Virgil | CR | 295 |
| -083- | -1.60 | Ivan_DeJesus | SS | 333 |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Shane_Rawley | PR | 9 |
| TOTAL | 7.89 |
Mike Schmidt having a good year.
CHN START Roster 19840723
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -092- | -1.49 | Rick_Sutcliffe | 145.0 | 0 |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Steve_Trout | 112.7 | 1 |
| -078- | -1.66 | Dick_Ruthven | 66.0 | 2 |
| -023- | -2.71 | Dennis_Eckersley | 133.4 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Scott_Sanderson | 68.3 | 4 |
| TOTAL | -4.56 |
Cubs starting rotation is what it is at the start of today. We know this gets better but based upon numbers so far, Cubs are second in NL East because of the massive lineups they bring each day.
PHI START Roster 19840723
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -037- | -2.35 | Shane_Rawley | 66.0 | 0 |
| +034+ | 3.09 | Steve_Carlton | 149.3 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.13 | Kevin_Gross | 86.7 | 2 |
| -075- | -1.74 | Charles_Hudson | 111.3 | 3 |
| +032+ | 3.13 | Jerry_Koosman | 130.7 | 4 |
| TOTAL | 2.00 |
Jerry Koosman had his career year in 1969 playing for the Mets. His career lasted from 1967 to 1984. Carlton doesn’t have a very good second half to this season losing almost 2 WAA finishing unranked.
CHN RELIEF Roster 19840723
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.04 | Lee_Smith | 61.3 | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Warren_Brusstar | 42.0 | 1 |
| -019- | -2.94 | Rick_Reuschel | 77.3 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.63 | George_Frazier | 71.3 | 1 |
| +143+ | 1.32 | Rich_Bordi | 57.0 | 2 |
| +091+ | 1.87 | Tim_Stoddard | 58.3 | 3 |
| TOTAL | -0.57 |
Looks like Reuschel is in the bullpen now which brought down relief value for Cubs today.
PHI RELIEF Roster 19840723
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +066+ | 2.33 | Larry_Andersen | 50.3 | 0 |
| +076+ | 2.12 | Al_Holland | 71.7 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.25 | Don_Carman | 4.3 | 3 |
| -045- | -2.18 | Jim_Kern | 13.3 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 0.46 | Bill_Campbell | 60.0 | 3 |
| TOTAL | 2.48 |
The prototype portal into this data model will turn these names into links showing their career which will have links showing their WAA trajectories through the selected season.
Cubs start a 4 game weekend series with the first place Mets on Friday, July 27 which we’ll cover next. Until then ….