Cubs Phillies Matchup 7/23/1984

Cubs start a three game set against Phillies in Philadelphia.  Cubs are currently trailing the Mets by 2 1/2 games ( 5 WAA ) in NL East.  Phillies are right behind the Cubs

NL East

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYN 55 37 -47.0 55.8 -4.6 19840722
CHN 54 41 49.4 -18.2 6.4 19840722
PHI 53 42 38.9 32.8 -31.6 19840722

Phillies have very good BAT and PITCH numbers based upon seasonal run differential.  Their fielding is dragging them down however with an astonishing -31.6 UR which is #1 worst in MLB.  Those of us from the future know this cripples the Phillies turning them into an 81-81, even steven, WAA=0 team by season end.  Unearned runs are real and count equally with earned runs.

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 13 X 0.537 X 4.00 -1.57 -0.39
PHI 11 X 0.463 X 1.91 -2.41 1.19

Cubs a couple WAA ahead of the Phillies.  If Phillies win today they are tied for second in NL East.  Cubs fielding another maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup which we’ll see below.  Phillies have a good lineup today as well.  Both starters are under water.  Cubs relief dropped from last series.  We’ll see why below.

Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs around a 54% advantage today mostly due to their Lineup -> Starter Tier Combo advantage which is maxed out at integer +6 in Cubs favor ( 4.00 – [ -2.41 ] = 6 ).

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-092- -1.49 145.0 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 5 -1.57
-037- -2.37 66.0 Shane_Rawley PHI 5 -2.41

Sutcliffe still under water but improving since coming to Chicago.  He came over from Cleveland with a -3.11 WAA which means he gained around 1.5 WAA in a month.  A player who adds 1.5 WAA a month for a 6 month season  is close to the very top of MLB.

Shane Rawley is having a bad year.  He finishes this year at the exact same WAA as today, WAA = -2.37 and ranked #76 in the bottom 160.  This means he pitches exactly average from now until the end of this season.

Let’s see what happens today.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 000003000 3 16 7 0
PHI 000100100 2 14 6 0

Sutcliffe pitches 8 innings giving up 2 earned runs. Lee Smith comes in and gets the save.  Rawley gives up 3 in 5 2/3 innings which was enough for Cubs to win as they don’t score any against PHI relief.

CHN Lineup 198407230

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.71 Bob_Dernier CF 381
+026+ 3.28 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 431
+033+ 3.09 Gary_Matthews LF 369
XXXXX 0.88 Keith_Moreland RF 281
+055+ 2.56 Jody_Davis CR 355
+086+ 2.02 Ron_Cey 3B 333
+013+ 4.07 Leon_Durham 1B 312
-031- -2.54 Larry_Bowa SS 275
XXXXX -0.38 Rick_Sutcliffe PR 21
TOTAL 13.69

Leon Durham still batting low in the lineup.  He might still be hurt and Frey wants to limit his plate appearances.  Gary Matthews moving up the ranks now at #33.  He finishes this year ranked #20 which is very good.

PHI Lineup 198407230

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.61 Greg_Gross LF 102
XXXXX 1.03 Von_Hayes CF 319
+124+ 1.47 Juan_Samuel 2B 440
+007+ 4.64 Mike_Schmidt 3B 392
+115+ 1.62 Tim_Corcoran 1B 157
XXXXX -0.76 Glenn_Wilson RF 268
+069+ 2.31 Ozzie_Virgil CR 295
-083- -1.60 Ivan_DeJesus SS 333
XXXXX -0.21 Shane_Rawley PR 9
TOTAL 7.89

Mike Schmidt having a good year.

CHN START Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-092- -1.49 Rick_Sutcliffe 145.0 0
XXXXX 0.65 Steve_Trout 112.7 1
-078- -1.66 Dick_Ruthven 66.0 2
-023- -2.71 Dennis_Eckersley 133.4 3
XXXXX 0.65 Scott_Sanderson 68.3 4
TOTAL -4.56

Cubs starting rotation is what it is at the start of today.  We know this gets better but based upon numbers so far, Cubs are second in NL East because of the massive lineups they bring each day.

PHI START Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-037- -2.35 Shane_Rawley 66.0 0
+034+ 3.09 Steve_Carlton 149.3 1
XXXXX -0.13 Kevin_Gross 86.7 2
-075- -1.74 Charles_Hudson 111.3 3
+032+ 3.13 Jerry_Koosman 130.7 4
TOTAL 2.00

Jerry Koosman had his career year in 1969 playing for the Mets.  His career lasted from 1967 to 1984.  Carlton doesn’t have a very good second half to this season losing almost 2 WAA finishing unranked.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.04 Lee_Smith 61.3 0
XXXXX -0.23 Warren_Brusstar 42.0 1
-019- -2.94 Rick_Reuschel 77.3 1
XXXXX -0.63 George_Frazier 71.3 1
+143+ 1.32 Rich_Bordi 57.0 2
+091+ 1.87 Tim_Stoddard 58.3 3
TOTAL -0.57

Looks like Reuschel is in the bullpen now which brought down relief value for Cubs today.

PHI RELIEF Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+066+ 2.33 Larry_Andersen 50.3 0
+076+ 2.12 Al_Holland 71.7 1
XXXXX -0.25 Don_Carman 4.3 3
-045- -2.18 Jim_Kern 13.3 3
XXXXX 0.46 Bill_Campbell 60.0 3
TOTAL 2.48

The prototype portal into this data model will turn these names into links showing their career which will have links showing their WAA trajectories through the selected season.

Cubs start a 4 game weekend series with the first place Mets on Friday, July 27 which we’ll cover next.  Until then ….