Cubs Phillies Matchup 7/30/1984

Today the Cubs start a 3 game series with the Phillies in Chicago after taking 3 out of 4 from Mets in New York over the weekend. Let’s look at this matchup on this day.

NL East 19840729

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 59 40 -41.5 49.5 -8.9
CHN 59 43 59.8 -12.5 8.1
PHI 55 46 32.8 26.5 -29.9
WAS 50 51 -53.7 48.5 10.1
SLN 50 53 -40.5 14.5 1.1
PIT 44 60 -37.7 54.5 3.1

Phillies 3 1/2 games behind Cubs ( 7 WAA ) so this series is important for them.  Cubs gaining on the Mets so they need to keep winning too.  BAT, PITCH, and UR all about the same as the last time these two teams played a week ago. 

Tier Combo

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PHI 9 X 0.428 X 2.21 -2.56 2.13  
CHN 16 X 0.572 X 4.00 -2.76 0.79  

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 57.2 % chance of winning today.  Both starters are equally under water so this game could be considered whatever they call the opposite of a pitching duel.  Both lineups well above current league average for lineups with Cubs once again maxed out, top of MLB.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-038- -2.48 115.3 Charles_Hudson PHI 5 -2.56
-025- -2.69 140.3 Dennis_Eckersley CHN 5 -2.76

Dennis Eckersley starts a tremendous run with this game.  In the next two months he will add +4 WAA which is a top of MLB rate.  Unfortunately like golf, this data model does not grant mulligans.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
PHI 100000010 2 16 10 0
CHN 10000110 3 11 8 1

Eckersley gives up 1 run in 7 innings and Cubs’ relief gives up the other run.  Cubs tier 4.00 lineup only scores 3 runs which is below average but enough to win this game which is all that matters in baseball.

PHI Lineup 198407300

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
+126+ 1.55 Juan_Samuel 2B 465
+148+ 1.32 Von_Hayes CF 344
+013+ 4.24 Mike_Schmidt 3B 415
+135+ 1.43 Sixto_Lezcano RF 213
+154+ 1.28 Len_Matuszek 1B 191
+086+ 2.08 Ozzie_Virgil CR 315
XXXXX -0.94 Glenn_Wilson LF 291
-071- -1.85 Ivan_DeJesus SS 354
XXXXX -0.32 Charles_Hudson PR 42
TOTAL 8.79

CHN Lineup 198407300

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.53 Henry_Cotto CF 80
+016+ 4.16 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 462
+026+ 3.51 Gary_Matthews LF 393
+003+ 4.85 Leon_Durham 1B 342
XXXXX 0.92 Keith_Moreland RF 311
+053+ 2.65 Jody_Davis CR 384
+064+ 2.52 Ron_Cey 3B 357
-023- -2.73 Larry_Bowa SS 291
XXXXX -0.44 Dennis_Eckersley PR 29
TOTAL 14.91

Sandberg and Durham rising in the ranks.  Durham must have had a very productive series with the Mets as he is now ranked #3 in MLB.

PHI START Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-038- -2.48 Charles_Hudson 115.3 0
+038+ 3.19 Jerry_Koosman 144.0 1
-037- -2.49 Shane_Rawley 79.0 2
+066+ 2.39 Steve_Carlton 156.3 3
XXXXX -0.65 Kevin_Gross 90.7 9
TOTAL -0.04

Two very good starters and two very bad starters.  Phillies must have been on a 4 pitcher rotation.  Kevin Gross pitched in relief today and will fall off this list tomorrow.

CHN START Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-025- -2.67 Dennis_Eckersley 140.4 0
XXXXX 1.07 Scott_Sanderson 81.0 1
+150+ 1.30 Steve_Trout 121.7 1
XXXXX -1.14 Rick_Sutcliffe 159.3 2
-094- -1.60 Dick_Ruthven 72.3 3
TOTAL -3.04

Cubs starting rotation getting better which is hard to see from a static snapshot like this.

PHI RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -0.65 Kevin_Gross 90.7 0
+046+ 2.96 Larry_Andersen 57.7 1
+080+ 2.14 Al_Holland 74.7 2
XXXXX -0.17 Don_Carman 5.3 5
XXXXX 0.53 Bill_Campbell 61.0 5
TOTAL 4.81

This is a Tier 2+ relief squad or a little more than one standard deviation above current league average for team relief.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith 65.3 0
+092+ 1.99 Tim_Stoddard 63.0 0
XXXXX -0.59 George_Frazier 72.3 2
XXXXX 1.01 Rich_Bordi 59.0 5
TOTAL 2.51

Reuschel must be hurt because he disappeared from both relief and start rosters.  With Reuschel gone Cubs relief rises to above average.

Cubs lose tomorrow and win the next day taking 2 out of 3 from Phillies. Mets lose 3 in a row and by the start of the next series with Expos Cubs will be first in NL East by a very slim margin.  A 4 game series with Expo starts Thursday August 2 which we’ll cover with another matchup post.  Until then ….