Today the Cubs start a 3 game series with the Phillies in Chicago after taking 3 out of 4 from Mets in New York over the weekend. Let’s look at this matchup on this day.
NL East 19840729
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYN | 59 | 40 | -41.5 | 49.5 | -8.9 | |
| CHN | 59 | 43 | 59.8 | -12.5 | 8.1 | |
| PHI | 55 | 46 | 32.8 | 26.5 | -29.9 | |
| WAS | 50 | 51 | -53.7 | 48.5 | 10.1 | |
| SLN | 50 | 53 | -40.5 | 14.5 | 1.1 | |
| PIT | 44 | 60 | -37.7 | 54.5 | 3.1 |
Phillies 3 1/2 games behind Cubs ( 7 WAA ) so this series is important for them. Cubs gaining on the Mets so they need to keep winning too. BAT, PITCH, and UR all about the same as the last time these two teams played a week ago.
Tier Combo
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 9 | X | 0.428 | X | 2.21 | -2.56 | 2.13 | |
| CHN | 16 | X | 0.572 | X | 4.00 | -2.76 | 0.79 |
Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 57.2 % chance of winning today. Both starters are equally under water so this game could be considered whatever they call the opposite of a pitching duel. Both lineups well above current league average for lineups with Cubs once again maxed out, top of MLB.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -038- | -2.48 | 115.3 | Charles_Hudson | PHI | 5 | -2.56 |
| -025- | -2.69 | 140.3 | Dennis_Eckersley | CHN | 5 | -2.76 |
Dennis Eckersley starts a tremendous run with this game. In the next two months he will add +4 WAA which is a top of MLB rate. Unfortunately like golf, this data model does not grant mulligans.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 100000010 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 0 |
| CHN | 10000110 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 1 |
Eckersley gives up 1 run in 7 innings and Cubs’ relief gives up the other run. Cubs tier 4.00 lineup only scores 3 runs which is below average but enough to win this game which is all that matters in baseball.
PHI Lineup 198407300
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +126+ | 1.55 | Juan_Samuel | 2B | 465 |
| +148+ | 1.32 | Von_Hayes | CF | 344 |
| +013+ | 4.24 | Mike_Schmidt | 3B | 415 |
| +135+ | 1.43 | Sixto_Lezcano | RF | 213 |
| +154+ | 1.28 | Len_Matuszek | 1B | 191 |
| +086+ | 2.08 | Ozzie_Virgil | CR | 315 |
| XXXXX | -0.94 | Glenn_Wilson | LF | 291 |
| -071- | -1.85 | Ivan_DeJesus | SS | 354 |
| XXXXX | -0.32 | Charles_Hudson | PR | 42 |
| TOTAL | 8.79 |
CHN Lineup 198407300
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.53 | Henry_Cotto | CF | 80 |
| +016+ | 4.16 | Ryne_Sandberg | 2B | 462 |
| +026+ | 3.51 | Gary_Matthews | LF | 393 |
| +003+ | 4.85 | Leon_Durham | 1B | 342 |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Keith_Moreland | RF | 311 |
| +053+ | 2.65 | Jody_Davis | CR | 384 |
| +064+ | 2.52 | Ron_Cey | 3B | 357 |
| -023- | -2.73 | Larry_Bowa | SS | 291 |
| XXXXX | -0.44 | Dennis_Eckersley | PR | 29 |
| TOTAL | 14.91 |
Sandberg and Durham rising in the ranks. Durham must have had a very productive series with the Mets as he is now ranked #3 in MLB.
PHI START Roster 19840730
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -038- | -2.48 | Charles_Hudson | 115.3 | 0 |
| +038+ | 3.19 | Jerry_Koosman | 144.0 | 1 |
| -037- | -2.49 | Shane_Rawley | 79.0 | 2 |
| +066+ | 2.39 | Steve_Carlton | 156.3 | 3 |
| XXXXX | -0.65 | Kevin_Gross | 90.7 | 9 |
| TOTAL | -0.04 |
Two very good starters and two very bad starters. Phillies must have been on a 4 pitcher rotation. Kevin Gross pitched in relief today and will fall off this list tomorrow.
CHN START Roster 19840730
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -025- | -2.67 | Dennis_Eckersley | 140.4 | 0 |
| XXXXX | 1.07 | Scott_Sanderson | 81.0 | 1 |
| +150+ | 1.30 | Steve_Trout | 121.7 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -1.14 | Rick_Sutcliffe | 159.3 | 2 |
| -094- | -1.60 | Dick_Ruthven | 72.3 | 3 |
| TOTAL | -3.04 |
Cubs starting rotation getting better which is hard to see from a static snapshot like this.
PHI RELIEF Roster 19840730
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.65 | Kevin_Gross | 90.7 | 0 |
| +046+ | 2.96 | Larry_Andersen | 57.7 | 1 |
| +080+ | 2.14 | Al_Holland | 74.7 | 2 |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Don_Carman | 5.3 | 5 |
| XXXXX | 0.53 | Bill_Campbell | 61.0 | 5 |
| TOTAL | 4.81 |
This is a Tier 2+ relief squad or a little more than one standard deviation above current league average for team relief.
CHN RELIEF Roster 19840730
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.10 | Lee_Smith | 65.3 | 0 |
| +092+ | 1.99 | Tim_Stoddard | 63.0 | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.59 | George_Frazier | 72.3 | 2 |
| XXXXX | 1.01 | Rich_Bordi | 59.0 | 5 |
| TOTAL | 2.51 |
Reuschel must be hurt because he disappeared from both relief and start rosters. With Reuschel gone Cubs relief rises to above average.
Cubs lose tomorrow and win the next day taking 2 out of 3 from Phillies. Mets lose 3 in a row and by the start of the next series with Expos Cubs will be first in NL East by a very slim margin. A 4 game series with Expo starts Thursday August 2 which we’ll cover with another matchup post. Until then ….