After winning 2 out of 3 from Phillies and Mets losing 3 in a row Cubs have slid into first place at the beginning of August, the beginning of the final third of any baseball season. Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Expos so let’s take a look at these two teams to get an idea what the next 4 days will bring.
NL East 19840801
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 61 | 44 | 57.1 | -8.2 | 8.0 | |
| NYN | 59 | 43 | -47.3 | 41.8 | -9.0 | |
| PHI | 56 | 48 | 28.6 | 28.8 | -29.0 | |
| SLN | 53 | 53 | -33.3 | 19.8 | 2.0 | |
| WAS | 51 | 53 | -59.4 | 49.8 | 11.0 | |
| PIT | 46 | 61 | -39.4 | 59.8 | 4.0 |
Here are the NL East standings at end of day yesterday which would be what your read in the newspaper when waiting for this game to start in the grandstands at Wrigley Field.
Expos (WAS) have terrible BAT and very good PITCH which we’ll see why as we dig down further into this team. The Montreal Expos will one day become the Washington Nationals which is why they are listed under the WAS franchise tag.
Tier Combo
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | -2 | X | 0.364 | X | -0.36 | 2.58 | -3.12 | |
| CHN | 17 | X | 0.636 | X | 4.00 | -1.12 | -0.85 |
Tiers represent how far above or below current league averages for today’s {L}ineups, (S}tarter, and {R}elief. Lineups get matched with opposing team Starter and Relief and entered into a simulation which runs one million iterations of this game drawing from similar historical data.
Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs an almost 64% advantage today. If Vegas lines were below 64% Cubs would be a betting opportunity. If above Expos’ 36% they would be a betting opportunity. The Expected Value (EV) column calculates how good of a bet it is if you assume the probability generated from TC simulation is correct. We don’t have data for how Vegas handicapped this game.
Cubs are way ahead in win/loss column (WAA), have a maxed out tier 4.00 lineup today which is 2 complete standard deviations above current league average for team lineups. Expos have a better starter but much worse relief.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +039+ | 3.13 | 133.0 | Bryn_Smith | WAS | 5 | 2.58 |
| XXXXX | -1.16 | 159.3 | Rick_Sutcliffe | CHN | 5 | -1.12 |
Sutcliffe is under water from a terrible start to this season at Cleveland. Cubs are reaping all the benefit from his rise. Simulation does not give out mulligans nor does it know the future. Since we’re from the future we know Sutcliffe wins a Cy Young award this season and for good reasons. Right now, with what we know today, Expos have a starter advantage.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 000020000 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 0 |
| CHN | 00010110 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 0 |
And this becomes somewhat of a pitchers duel. here. Sutcliffe pitches 8 1/3 allowing only 2 earned runs so his numbers will go up again tomorrow. Smith pitches all 8 innings, all 3 runs earned.
WAS Lineup 198408020
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.07 | Tim_Raines | CF | 460 |
| XXXXX | -0.13 | Max_Venable | LF | 5 |
| +154+ | 1.32 | Andre_Dawson | RF | 368 |
| +032+ | 3.30 | Gary_Carter | CR | 428 |
| XXXXX | -0.13 | Dan_Driessen | 1B | 263 |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Tim_Wallach | 3B | 414 |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Derrell_Thomas | SS | 163 |
| -026- | -2.75 | Doug_Flynn | 2B | 245 |
| XXXXX | -0.50 | Bryn_Smith | PR | 49 |
| TOTAL | 2.33 |
Although WAS has an above 0 Total, this late in the season that is more than 1/2 standard deviation below league average.
CHN Lineup 198408020
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.65 | Henry_Cotto | CF | 95 |
| +015+ | 4.20 | Ryne_Sandberg | 2B | 476 |
| +031+ | 3.36 | Gary_Matthews | LF | 405 |
| +006+ | 4.75 | Leon_Durham | 1B | 352 |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Keith_Moreland | RF | 321 |
| +064+ | 2.58 | Jody_Davis | CR | 398 |
| +054+ | 2.77 | Ron_Cey | 3B | 370 |
| -020- | -2.98 | Larry_Bowa | SS | 303 |
| XXXXX | -0.50 | Rick_Sutcliffe | PR | 27 |
| TOTAL | 14.45 |
This is very similar to all the other CHN lineups shown here before.
WAS START Roster 19840802
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +039+ | 3.13 | Bryn_Smith | 133.0 | 0 |
| +018+ | 3.99 | Charlie_Lea | 163.7 | 1 |
| -007- | -4.20 | Steve_Rogers | 96.0 | 2 |
| +055+ | 2.75 | Dan_Schatzeder | 77.3 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Bill_Gullickson | 135.7 | 4 |
| TOTAL | 5.67 |
Three excellent starters and one not so good.
CHN START Roster 19840802
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -1.14 | Rick_Sutcliffe | 159.3 | 0 |
| -090- | -1.66 | Dick_Ruthven | 79.0 | 1 |
| +125+ | 1.57 | Rich_Bordi | 68.0 | 2 |
| -042- | -2.29 | Dennis_Eckersley | 147.4 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Scott_Sanderson | 81.0 | 4 |
| TOTAL | -2.47 |
For some reason Steve Trout is missing as well as Rick Reuschel.
WAS RELIEF Roster 19840802
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.07 | Gary_Lucas | 42.3 | 1 |
| +157+ | 1.28 | Jeff_Reardon | 54.0 | 2 |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Bob_James | 59.0 | 3 |
| -007- | -4.20 | Steve_Rogers | 96.0 | 4 |
| TOTAL | -2.02 |
CHN RELIEF Roster 19840802
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Lee_Smith | 67.3 | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | George_Frazier | 75.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Warren_Brusstar | 42.7 | 2 |
| +115+ | 1.74 | Tim_Stoddard | 65.0 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 1.42 |
A very slightly above average relief squad based on seasonal numbers but almost 1/2 standard deviation below current league average for team relief.
That’s all for now. Cubs take 3 out of 4 in this series and will host the Mets on August 6 which we’ll cover.
More coverage of the year 2020 season coming. The simulator is up and running well. Handicapping early games using 3 year historical data looks unexpectedly good. A very rough prototype portal into all data in this model is very close to a beginning. More to come soon. Until then ….