Cubs Expos 8/2/1984

After winning 2 out of 3 from Phillies and Mets losing 3 in a row Cubs have slid into first place at the beginning of August, the beginning of the final third of any baseball season.  Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Expos so let’s take a look at these two teams to get an idea what the next 4 days will bring.

NL East 19840801

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 61 44 57.1 -8.2 8.0
NYN 59 43 -47.3 41.8 -9.0
PHI 56 48 28.6 28.8 -29.0
SLN 53 53 -33.3 19.8 2.0
WAS 51 53 -59.4 49.8 11.0
PIT 46 61 -39.4 59.8 4.0

Here are the NL East standings at end of day yesterday which would be what your read in the newspaper when waiting for this game to start in the grandstands at Wrigley Field.

Expos (WAS) have terrible BAT and very good PITCH which we’ll see why as we dig down further into this team. The Montreal Expos will one day become the Washington Nationals which is why they are listed under the WAS franchise tag.

Tier Combo

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS -2 X 0.364 X -0.36 2.58 -3.12
CHN 17 X 0.636 X 4.00 -1.12 -0.85

Tiers represent how far above or below current league averages for today’s {L}ineups, (S}tarter, and {R}elief.  Lineups get matched with opposing team Starter and Relief and entered into a simulation which runs one million iterations of this game drawing from similar historical data.

Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs an almost 64% advantage today.  If Vegas lines were below 64% Cubs would be a betting opportunity.  If above Expos’ 36% they would be a betting opportunity.  The Expected Value (EV) column calculates how good of a bet it is if you assume the probability generated from TC simulation is correct.  We don’t have data for how Vegas handicapped this game.

Cubs are way ahead in win/loss column (WAA), have a maxed out tier 4.00 lineup today which is 2 complete standard deviations above current league average for team lineups.  Expos have a better starter but much worse relief.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+039+ 3.13 133.0 Bryn_Smith WAS 5 2.58
XXXXX -1.16 159.3 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 5 -1.12

Sutcliffe is under water from a terrible start to this season at Cleveland.   Cubs are reaping all the benefit from his rise.  Simulation does not give out mulligans nor does it know the future.  Since we’re from the future we know Sutcliffe wins a Cy Young award this season and for good reasons.  Right now, with what we know today, Expos have a starter advantage.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
WAS 000020000 2 17 8 0
CHN 00010110 3 11 6 0

And this becomes somewhat of a pitchers duel. here.  Sutcliffe pitches 8 1/3 allowing only 2 earned runs so his numbers will go up again tomorrow. Smith pitches all 8 innings, all 3 runs earned.

WAS Lineup 198408020

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 1.07 Tim_Raines CF 460
XXXXX -0.13 Max_Venable LF 5
+154+ 1.32 Andre_Dawson RF 368
+032+ 3.30 Gary_Carter CR 428
XXXXX -0.13 Dan_Driessen 1B 263
XXXXX 0.36 Tim_Wallach 3B 414
XXXXX -0.21 Derrell_Thomas SS 163
-026- -2.75 Doug_Flynn 2B 245
XXXXX -0.50 Bryn_Smith PR 49
TOTAL 2.33

Although WAS has an above 0 Total, this late in the season that is more than 1/2 standard deviation below league average.

CHN Lineup 198408020

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.65 Henry_Cotto CF 95
+015+ 4.20 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 476
+031+ 3.36 Gary_Matthews LF 405
+006+ 4.75 Leon_Durham 1B 352
XXXXX 0.92 Keith_Moreland RF 321
+064+ 2.58 Jody_Davis CR 398
+054+ 2.77 Ron_Cey 3B 370
-020- -2.98 Larry_Bowa SS 303
XXXXX -0.50 Rick_Sutcliffe PR 27
TOTAL 14.45

This is very similar to all the other CHN lineups shown here before.

WAS START Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+039+ 3.13 Bryn_Smith 133.0 0
+018+ 3.99 Charlie_Lea 163.7 1
-007- -4.20 Steve_Rogers 96.0 2
+055+ 2.75 Dan_Schatzeder 77.3 3
XXXXX 0.00 Bill_Gullickson 135.7 4
TOTAL 5.67

Three excellent starters and one not so good.

CHN START Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -1.14 Rick_Sutcliffe 159.3 0
-090- -1.66 Dick_Ruthven 79.0 1
+125+ 1.57 Rich_Bordi 68.0 2
-042- -2.29 Dennis_Eckersley 147.4 3
XXXXX 1.05 Scott_Sanderson 81.0 4
TOTAL -2.47

For some reason Steve Trout is missing as well as Rick Reuschel.

WAS RELIEF Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 1.07 Gary_Lucas 42.3 1
+157+ 1.28 Jeff_Reardon 54.0 2
XXXXX -0.17 Bob_James 59.0 3
-007- -4.20 Steve_Rogers 96.0 4
TOTAL -2.02

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.25 Lee_Smith 67.3 0
XXXXX -0.34 George_Frazier 75.0 1
XXXXX -0.23 Warren_Brusstar 42.7 2
+115+ 1.74 Tim_Stoddard 65.0 2
TOTAL 1.42

A very slightly above average relief squad based on seasonal numbers but almost 1/2 standard deviation below current league average for team relief.

That’s all for now.  Cubs take 3 out of 4 in this series and will host the Mets on August 6 which we’ll cover.

More coverage of the year 2020 season coming.  The simulator is up and running well.  Handicapping early games using 3 year historical data looks unexpectedly good.  A very rough prototype portal into all data in this model is very close to a beginning.  More to come soon.  Until then ….