Cubs Mets 8/6/1984

Cubs play the Mets once again in another 4 game series at Wrigley Field.  Cubs took 3 out of 4 from the Expos but Mets kept the pace and the two teams still very close in NL East.  Let’s look at these two teams again.

NL East 19840805

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 64 45 58.2 -5.9 8.5
NYN 62 44 -46.7 46.1 -9.5
PHI 58 50 28.2 31.1 -28.5
SLN 55 55 -36.2 19.1 3.5
WAS 52 56 -61.8 48.1 11.5
PIT 47 64 -43.8 60.1 3.5

Pretty much same with respect to BAT, PITCH, and UR for both Mets and Cubs when these two teams last met at end of July.  Seasonal run differential numbers move at a glacial pace for all teams in a league.

This late in the season roster value can be much different than what seasonal run differential may suggest.

Tier Combo

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYN 18 X 0.459 X -1.60 1.68 3.37
CHN 19 X 0.541 X 4.00 -1.61 -1.76

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 54% advantage today which is exactly home field advantage if you knew nothing about either team playing.  We do, however, know a few things about both teams.

Cubs again with a top of MLB maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup which concurs with their BAT in team status above.  Mets starting a better pitcher today and have much better relief which we’ll see below.  This also concurs with their excellent PITCH in team status.

Pitching kept the Mets at the top of NL East this season, hitting has kept the Cubs on top this year so far.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+096+ 2.06 138.0 Dwight_Gooden NYN 5 1.68
-095- -1.68 79.0 Dick_Ruthven CHN 5 -1.61

Luckily for Ruthven he faces an equally under water Mets lineups.  That matchup is even steven.   Dwight Gooden must face Cubs massive maxed out lineup today.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
NYN 000102000 3 15 9 0
CHN 20401002 9 26 13 1

The Cubs top of MLB lineup tags Gooden for 5 earned runs and they knock him out after 4 innings.  Ruthven gives up 1 earned and 2 unearned runs in 5 2/3 innings.  That 1 error in the E column resulted in 2 runs for the Mets.  On average there are almost exactly 2 errors per unearned run based upon all runs in the history of baseball post 1900.

Dwight Gooden had a bad day today but he finishes this season strong ranked #10 in his first year in MLB.  He has many great years following this one as well.  Next year, in 1985, he’s ranked #1 by this data model and WAR.

NYN Lineup 198408060

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.99 Wally_Backman 2B 348
XXXXX -0.82 Mookie_Wilson CF 412
+158+ 1.32 Keith_Hernandez 1B 438
+079+ 2.29 Darryl_Strawberry RF 410
XXXXX 1.11 George_Foster LF 397
XXXXX -0.69 Hubie_Brooks 3B 407
-081- -1.83 Mike_Fitzgerald CR 249
XXXXX -0.63 Rafael_Santana SS 67
XXXXX -0.80 Dwight_Gooden PR 52
TOTAL -1.04

CHN Lineup 198408060

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.78 Bob_Dernier CF 413
+020+ 3.93 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 493
+035+ 3.23 Gary_Matthews LF 421
+004+ 5.04 Leon_Durham 1B 368
+130+ 1.64 Keith_Moreland RF 337
+056+ 2.75 Jody_Davis CR 409
+048+ 2.90 Ron_Cey 3B 384
XXXXX -0.46 Dave_Owen SS 82
XXXXX -0.29 Dick_Ruthven PR 32
TOTAL 19.52

Lineup value keeps rising for Cubs.  Keith Moreland makes it into top 160 for first time this season.

The above are values at the start of today; what you would know sitting in the grandstands at Wrigley waiting for this game to start.

NYN START Roster 19840806

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+096+ 2.06 Dwight_Gooden 138.0 0
+152+ 1.39 Sid_Fernandes 34.3 1
-024- -2.79 Bruce_Berenyi 111.7 2
+046+ 2.92 Walt_Terrell 145.3 3
+124+ 1.72 Ron_Darling 141.3 4
TOTAL 5.30

An above average staff.  Individual starters are tiered per game for simulation so the staff totals above are for informational purposes and used as a column in horse race tables to determine total team roster value.

CHN START Roster 19840806

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-095- -1.68 Dick_Ruthven 79.0 0
+160+ 1.28 Rich_Bordi 72.0 1
-070- -1.93 Dennis_Eckersley 154.0 2
XXXXX 0.76 Steve_Trout 126.0 3
XXXXX -0.92 Rick_Sutcliffe 167.6 4
TOTAL -2.49

Not much different than from last time but Steve Trout is back.  Eckersley will be much higher next time we see him (just a hunch 🙂

NYN RELIEF Roster 19840806

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+132+ 1.60 Brent_Gaff 43.7 0
+047+ 2.90 Doug_Sisk 65.3 0
XXXXX 0.38 Wes_Gardner 4.3 1
+088+ 2.16 Jesse_Orosco 61.7 2
XXXXX -0.10 Tom_Gorman 41.0 2
TOTAL 6.94

This is a very good relief staff.  At Tier 3.37 they are over 1 1/2 standard deviations above league average for team relief.  Relief wasn’t the problem in this game even though the Cubs tagged them for 3 runs.  Cubs got all the runs they needed to win from Gooden.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840806

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -0.06 Warren_Brusstar 44.7 0
+126+ 1.68 Tim_Stoddard 67.0 0
-026- -2.77 Rick_Reuschel 81.0 1
XXXXX 0.46 Lee_Smith 70.0 1
XXXXX -0.19 George_Frazier 77.3 2
TOTAL -0.88

Cubs relief is under water again because Rick Reuschel has returned. Reuschel had a great career but 1984 wasn’t a very good year for him as he finishes ranked #55 in the bottom 160, a list no one wants to be #1.

From our position in the future we know Cubs sweep this series to take a commanding 4 1/2 ( 9 WAA ) game lead over Mets in first place when they start yet another weekend series with the Expos on 8/9.

That is all for now.  Some 2020 season coverage of how TC simulation is working using historical data coming next.  Until then ….