Cubs are in the middle of a 3 game set with the Reds in Cincinnati and this game is kind of interesting so let’s have a look at these two teams again at the beginning of day on August 18, 1984.,
NL_East 19840817
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 70 | 51 | 60.3 | -1.6 | 7.8 | |
| NYN | 67 | 51 | -59.6 | 45.4 | -18.2 | |
| PHI | 63 | 56 | 10.8 | 56.4 | -27.2 | |
| WAS | 60 | 60 | -62.7 | 61.4 | 10.8 | |
| SLN | 60 | 60 | -56.6 | 40.4 | 7.8 | |
| PIT | 52 | 70 | -53.7 | 71.4 | 7.8 |
Cubs in first but only by 1 1/2 games ( 3 WAA ) ahead of the Mets. Cubs PITCH has improved to almost exactly even steven based upon run differential. This means the number of runs scored against them minus Unearned Runs is almost exactly the team league average for all 24 teams on this day.
Let’s look at the Reds team status who happen to be in the NL West even though they reside east of Chicago.
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 52 | 71 | -50.3 | -66.5 | -0.5 |
Bad everything about this team right now. Let’s dive down further into this game.
Tier Data
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 19 | X | 0.659 | X | 4.00 | -1.74 | 0.53 | |
| CIN | -18 | X | 0.341 | X | -2.96 | -0.20 | -3.97 |
Cubs have a maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup, Reds have an almost maxed out Tier -4.00 under water Relief staff. Reds Lineup well under water as well. The differences in WAA, Lineup, Starter, and Relief get fed into Tier Combo simulation which give Cubs a 66% advantage today. Vegas lines would
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -115- | -1.57 | 183.3 | Rick_Sutcliffe | CHN | 6 | -1.74 |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | 2.0 | Ron_Robinson | CIN | 4 | -0.20 |
This is Ron Robinson’s first start of his career. Sutcliffe still climbing out of the hole he dug himself in Cleveland at the beginning of this season. Let’s see what happens.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 710 001 040 | 13 | 33 | 15 | 1 |
| CIN | 100 310 222 | 11 | 18 | 16 | 5 |
Cubs pound 7 runs off Robinson in the first knocking him out after pitching one out. Six of those 7 runs were unearned as the Reds commit 5 errors in this game. Sutcliffe gives up 5 runs in 5 innings which isn’t good but he gets the W regardless. Relief on both sides give up a flurry of runs. Had the Reds not made so many errors Cubs would have lost this game due to poor pitching.
CHN Lineup 198408180
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Bob_Dernier | CF | 455 |
| +023+ | 4.01 | Ryne_Sandberg | 2B | 534 |
| +038+ | 3.57 | Gary_Matthews | LF | 464 |
| +009+ | 5.48 | Leon_Durham | 1B | 402 |
| +100+ | 2.12 | Keith_Moreland | RF | 388 |
| +051+ | 3.25 | Ron_Cey | 3B | 431 |
| +063+ | 2.86 | Jody_Davis | CR | 449 |
| -017- | -3.36 | Larry_Bowa | SS | 324 |
| XXXXX | -0.61 | Rick_Sutcliffe | PR | 37 |
| TOTAL | 17.74 |
CIN Lineup 198408180
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.99 | Gary_Redus | CF | 377 |
| XXXXX | -0.76 | Pete_Rose | 1B | 318 |
| +136+ | 1.64 | Dave_Parker | RF | 494 |
| XXXXX | 1.16 | Cesar_Cedeno | LF | 244 |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Brad_Gulden | CR | 231 |
| -046- | -2.42 | Dave_Concepcion | 3B | 455 |
| -029- | -2.98 | Ron_Oester | 2B | 433 |
| XXXXX | -1.16 | Tom_Foley | SS | 244 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Ron_Robinson | PR | 0 |
| TOTAL | -5.53 |
Lineups are what you would expect based upon each team’s BAT number in teams status above.
CHN START Roster 19840818
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -115- | -1.56 | Rick_Sutcliffe | 183.3 | 0 |
| -129- | -1.41 | Dick_Ruthven | 98.0 | 1 |
| -145- | -1.28 | Dennis_Eckersley | 171.0 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Steve_Trout | 137.3 | 4 |
| +131+ | 1.74 | Scott_Sanderson | 93.3 | 5 |
| TOTAL | -2.34 |
This is actually improving from the last time Cubs starting rotation was posted. Sutcliffe is going to take another hit on his WAA after this game. He does recover it all and some by the end of the season as we’ll see in the next 6 weeks.
CIN START Roster 19840818
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Ron_Robinson | 2.0 | 0 |
| +118+ | 1.91 | Mario_Soto | 185.3 | 1 |
| +114+ | 1.91 | Jay_Tibbs | 53.7 | 3 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Jeff_Russell | 141.0 | 4 |
| XXXXX | 0.86 | Andy_McGaffigan | 56.7 | 6 |
| TOTAL | 4.62 |
CHN RELIEF Roster 19840818
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.97 | Lee_Smith | 75.0 | 0 |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Tim_Stoddard | 74.7 | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | George_Frazier | 83.3 | 1 |
| TOTAL | 1.53 |
Might have to check the code because 3 relievers seems kind of low. If there are more on the roster then some guys have been riding the bench for more than a week. Notice that Rick Reuschel is missing again. In modern baseball these rosters are filled with at least 8 player, all playing frequently.
CIN RELIEF Roster 19840818
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -013- | -3.55 | Tom_Hume | 92.7 | 0 |
| -098- | -1.72 | Bob_Owchinko | 77.3 | 0 |
| +156+ | 1.32 | Johnny_Franco | 61.7 | 0 |
| -004- | -5.29 | Frank_Pastore | 84.7 | 0 |
| XXXXX | 1.03 | Ted_Power | 87.3 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Ron_Robinson | 2.0 | 4 |
| TOTAL | -8.04 |
This concurs with CIN PITCH in team status.
That’s all for now. Reports similar to this with more handicapping detail will soon be up for all games at baseball-handbook.com.
We’re also approaching the 2020 season halfway point at which player ranking can begin in eanrest. More on that later. Until then ….