Apparently the Cubs play the White Sox in their final 3 games of this 2020 exhibition season. In past seasons there would be a lot of copy/pasting of tables but now we can just copy/paste links.
Click here for team status.
Not as concise but you can see the Cubs struggling in the BAT category and CHA with good BAT and very good PITCH. Lineups align with BAT for both teams. White Sox have better relief than Cubs who are around league average.
All this boils down into Tier Combos used in simulation giving White Sox a 58% chance of winning today despite Darvish on the mound. Cubs lineup is very underwater at tier -1.58. The new tier combo table shows a color coded comparison between the two teams.
Vegas has Cubs heavily favored at 63.6% making CHA a definite betting opportunity. White Sox are on a 5 game losing streak which may factor into the Vegas line.
Right now White Sox are receiving normal home field advantage which is baked into simulation and cannot be removed for many reasons; the best being this is a one off season and removing it causes a lot of complication in the code base. It is unclear whether or not there is home field advantage with no fans in the stands and with players from both teams sleeping in their home city.
This model favored CHA against Cleveland these last three days going against Vegas and was wrong each game. Losing streaks happen and right now this data model doesn’t correct for them. The results from TC Sim and the Tier Combo table should be considered advisory understanding that this data model compiles probabilities based upon historical data. If you flip a coin heads 4 times in a row the probability of the next flip being heads is the same as the first flip.
That is all for now. Game starts in 20 minutes. Despite what this model says, Go Cubs! Until then ….