The Game Details view displays information, according to this data model,  used to handicap this game.  Clicking the Details button when available brings up this view.

The Line Score table is shown when available and displays a typical baseball line score record used for over a century with the addition of Total Bases (TB).  Historically the total number of Hits divided by total Runs is almost exactly 2.  The historical ratio of Total Bases divided by Hits approaches almost exactly 3/2 over the last century of baseball.  A team that is efficient with Hits usually has high Total Bases for obvious reasons.  TB is not included in most site’s Line Score outputs.

Line Scores tell the story of one game; a single data point in a season full of data.  Who starts for each team is an important factor in handicapping.  The next table lists the away and home Starters for this game.  The current accrued WAA value from this data model is shown along with an average WAA over the past two years that goes to 0 as a season progress.  Data is sparse early in a season and past seasons are indicative of a player’s potential.  This will be 0 for new players because we have no MLB data on them yet.

IP ( Innings Pitched ) column is a time variable for pitchers.  Tiers are variances in a normal distribution.  All  five starting pitchers for each team are lumped into a distribution and variances (Tiers) are calculated to show how far above or below average a pitcher is compared to his peers.  Starter Tiers are then used in the Tier Combo table below.

The Vegas Lines table shows current state of betting markets in Las Vegas.  Lines are converted into a break even probability showing the Open and Current prices for bets.  If there are two outcomes in an event, the sum of betting the away and home teams should equal 1 according to basic probability.  Basic probability doesn’t apply to casinos.  The sum of Vegas break even probabilities are always much greater than 1 with the excess being the house’s profit on that bet.

The house profit margin guarantees they always win.  In past years this was a consistent 2.4% for almost all games.  With the increase demand in baseball sports betting this margin has increased to 4-5% this season for the first time.  The new wave of bettors don’t care or don’t  know how much more they’re now paying compared to last season.

A break even probability means you will break even betting your team an infinite number of times if that’s the true probability of your team winning.  Unlike a roll of a die or flip of a coin, no one knows the true probability of any sporting event.  We can only guess.  Vegas casinos, the market maker, guess at first then let the market push the line in either direction.   Teams with a fan base that bet with their hearts can push a market where betting on the other team is profitable — assuming that your probability estimation is correct.

Tier Combo (TC) field shows the estimated probability of each game according to this data model.  This field is populated when Lineups become available for each team in a game and simulation can be performed.  Lineups can vary significantly from game to game.  Simulation is disqualified for Starters that are new and will display Not Applicable in that field.

Expected Value (EV) is the Total Win number times our estimated Tier Combo probability.  If that value exceeds 100 then we have an edge on the house assuming our estimation is correct.  All estimations have error and caveats.  In general an EV of greater than +110 would be required to have an edge and even then it could be wrong.  EV is not shown because these numbers are only guidance to use along other information not covered by this data model.

Note: There’s a new concept called openers; relievers who start but only pitch the first inning to get the top of a lineup out.  Right now this data model can’t detect that and all sites will currently blindly list an opener as a starter. The simulator assumes a starter pitches a certain number of innings based upon his value.  An opener basically eliminates the Lineup vs. Starter Combo as a factor in the game.

Tier Combo tables are the heart of  handicapping in this data model.  Starter and Relief variances are subtracted from Lineup variances for home and away teams to come up with 4  integers called Tier Combos.

Tier Combo simulation looks at similar matchups over the last 30 seasons of baseball and calculates a win percentage for each team that can be compared with Vegas’ break even probabilities.

There are caveats.  This model looks at baseball from a single perspective and does not take into account many aspects like current events, weather, righty/lefty matchups, injuries, trends, etc. etc. which are important.  Looking at this data model is like viewing a golf putt from a single angle.  When making a wager or a putt you need to evaluate from more than one angle.  The handicapping in this data model is a success if it convinces you not to make a bet more than it does making a bet.

Perusing the Vegas Standings view should make it apparent that betting baseball is extremely unprofitable for the random bettor.