Author Archives: mea

Lineup Relief Table Part 2

We recalculated the lineup-relief tables using innings pitched instead of games.  This is a more accurate measure.  The table below is reformatted to show the lineup-relief combo pair,  innings pitched per game and the average runs per inning scored by  lineup, also given up by relief.

Lineup-Relief IP/Game Avg Runs
1-1 2.77 0.481
1-2 2.79 0.493
1-3 2.84 0.500
1-4 2.73 0.522
1-5 2.91 0.540
2-1 2.83 0.438
2-2 2.75 0.476
2-3 2.81 0.468
2-4 2.90 0.501
2-5 2.88 0.502
3-1 2.72 0.416
3-2 2.75 0.440
3-3 2.73 0.454
3-4 2.76 0.477
3-5 2.83 0.495
4-1 2.77 0.415
4-2 2.72 0.426
4-3 2.78 0.438
4-4 2.72 0.466
4-5 2.78 0.458
5-1 2.77 0.388
5-2 2.65 0.413
5-3 2.63 0.407
5-4 2.61 0.421
5-5 2.69 0.467

Not sure the innings pitched/game column means anything for each lineup-relief pair.  The average runs show a low of 0.388 for the worst lineup against the best relief to 0,540 for the best lineup against the worst relief (highlighted in green above).  This should be expected and the range is rather significant and should provide for interesting results in simulation.

Below is the table above condensed making it easier to see the trend.

Lineup-Relief IP/Game Avg Runs
1-5 2.91 0.540
2-4 2.90 0.501
3-3 2.73 0.454
4-2 2.72 0.426
5-1 2.77 0.388

Average runs scored goes down with worse lineups facing better relief squads as we would expect.  The data looks correct so far.  It’s possible that the best lineup against the worst relief has highest IP/Game because the best lineup will  knock out starters faster than worse lineups making relief pitchers pitch more innings regardless of value.

Since we’re here let’s do this for lineup-starters as well.  Same table format as above.

Lineup-Starter IP/Game Avg Runs
1-1 6.81 0.471
1-2 6.38 0.533
1-3 5.99 0.567
1-4 5.84 0.575
1-5 5.87 0.602
2-1 6.74 0.466
2-2 6.44 0.484
2-3 6.00 0.540
2-4 5.85 0.555
2-5 5.90 0.571
3-1 6.85 0.426
3-2 6.52 0.466
3-3 6.09 0.510
3-4 5.93 0.534
3-5 5.95 0.542
4-1 6.86 0.419
4-2 6.49 0.450
4-3 6.13 0.484
4-4 5.92 0.521
4-5 5.95 0.521
5-1 6.94 0.400
5-2 6.70 0.410
5-3 6.18 0.469
5-4 6.07 0.470
5-5 6.02 0.502

The difference between the two extremes in lineup-starter combos is around 0.2 runs per inning.  For lineup-relief combos that difference is around 0.15 runs per inning.  The innings pitched per game column shows how higher tier pitchers pitch more innings which should  be expected.  The high is 6.94 for the 5-1 lineup-starter pair and drops to a low of 5.87 for the 1-5 pair.

Below is a condensed version of the above table.

Lineup-Starter IP/Game Avg Runs
1-5 5.87 0.602
2-4 5.85 0.555
3-3 6.09 0.510
4-2 6.49 0.450
5-1 6.94 0.400

The trend of average runs follows what we expect with the best linups facing the worst starters to score the most runs which decreases as starter value increases and lineup value decreases.  We will use the inning numbers for simulation.

That is all for now.  The next step is running simulations.

Lineup Relief Table Part 1

Finally got first results of lineup-relief.  Doing this required recompiling the entire daily database.  In order to estimate relief value you have to know  the current set of relievers on a team for each day.  Rosters were estimated using the event data from retrosheet.org.

After knowing the roster we can separate relief staffs into our tier system and run that against lineups.  Here are the average runs scored by the lineup for each lineup – relief pair.

Lineup-Relief # Games Avg Runs
1-1 2085 1.33
1-2 2354 1.37
1-3 5810 1.42
1-4 2661 1.43
1-5 3253 1.57
2-1 1828 1.24
2-2 1872 1.31
2-3 4292 1.32
2-4 1740 1.45
2-5 2068 1.45
3-1 5501 1.13
3-2 5238 1.21
3-3 11466 1.24
3-4 4328 1.32
3-5 5105 1.40
4-1 2815 1.15
4-2 2670 1.16
4-3 5226 1.22
4-4 1993 1.27
4-5 2270 1.27
5-1 2696 1.08
5-2 2638 1.10
5-3 5174 1.07
5-4 1835 1.10
5-5 2000 1.25

The Avg Runs above is the number of runs scored in relief per game.  Column 2 is the number of games in this tier combo for this study.  Column one is the lineup – relief tier combo.

3-3 is a completely average lineup against an average relief staff.  The lineup starter combo table published here shows a 3-3 pair has an average of 4.6 runs scored in 9 innings.    If you divide by games instead of innings pitched that number is 3.11 per game.  Adding 1.24 from the 3-3 row above places the average runs scored per game at about 4.35 runs per game which is almost the real average.

Highlighted in green shows the range from worst lineup against best relief to best lineup against worst relief goes from a low of 1.08 to a high of 1.57.  This isn’t very much of a range probably due to the fact that relief pitchers pitch only a third of the innings that starters pitch.  It might make more sense to use runs/innings pitched in these tables.  Tier 1 starters will pitch more innings per game than Tier 5 starters.  We’ll redo these tables later.  We know the innings pitched for both starters and relievers.

Below is a schmoo of best-worst lineup relief to worst-best by selecting rows from the above table.

Lineup-Relief # Games Avg Runs
1-5 3253 1.57
2-4 1740 1.45
3-3 11466 1.24
4-2 2670 1.16
5-1 2696 1.08

Update: I’m a little behind on all of this.  There is an interesting article from Bill James that we will look at and we also need to analyze MVP, Cy Young, and best reliever AL/NL picks which happened awhile ago.  Like All Star picks these are voted on by people who have  biases.  tl;dr We’re 3/4 on MVP, 2/2 picking Cy Young and 2/2 on best reliever for each league.  Only outlier is Jose Altuve which will tie in nicely with the Bill James’ article on WAR.  More to come and we’re almost done with lineup-relief combo tables and ready for simulations and then running the results against the real daily lines.  Until then….

ALCS Game 7

Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in. Tonight is game 7 ALCS and I didn’t want to comment on this anymore but there might be an interesting clue here about the betting markets;. Here is tonight’s game according to the market.

DATE 10_21 8:00_PM NYA HOU
LINEAWAY NYA [ 0.463 ] < 0.461 >
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA
LINEHOME HOU [ 0.558 ] < 0.559 >
STARTHOME 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU

The above is tonight’s game.  Two possibly Tier 2 or Tier 3 starting pitchers.  Both HOU and NYA have Tier 1 lineups so this is a 50/50 game with NYA having a relief advantage.    These same two starters pitched against each other 5 days ago in New York.  Here is what the markets said about that game on 10/16.

DATE 10_16 8:05_PM HOU NYA
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.465 ] < 0.450 >
STARTAWAY 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.556 ] < 0.569 >
STARTHOME 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA

Our analysis then is about the same  except HOU is now favored and by almost the same amount.  There is a concept of home field advantage and home field irrational exuberance.  It’s difficult to discern the two and for now a one game series like this, who knows.  Something to look into in the off season.

And finally, below is the playoff horse race table of the 10 MLB teams in the playoffs this year.  After tonight it will be … and then there are two.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
WAS 22.21 32.34 21.09 11.25 54.55 32
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
CLE 19.30 28.61 17.35 11.26 47.91 42
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 10.42 31.72 19.90 11.82 42.14 46
ARI 15.99 24.49 15.98 8.51 40.48 24
CHN 18.85 19.74 7.41 12.33 38.59 22
COL 19.80 7.53 -0.11 7.64 27.33 12
BOS 7.56 19.71 8.69 11.02 27.27 24
MIN 9.41 -4.08 -6.51 2.43 5.33 8

NLCS Game 5

Looks like the Cubs kept from being swept.  They need 3 more wins in a row.  If every game is even steven, 50/50, their chances of advancing to the World Series is:

P(Cubs win NLCS)  = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8

Not every game will be a 50/50 matchup.  Here are lines for tonight’s game.

DATE 10_19 8:00_PM LAN CHN
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.600 ] < 0.608 >
STARTAWAY 8.27(0.713) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.417 ] < 0.408 >
STARTHOME 0.88(0.521) Jose_Quintana_TOT
------------------------------------
LAN 104 58 CHN 92 70
DELTAWAA 24 WINPCT 0.631 LAN

If this were a regular season game LAN would have a 63.1% chance just from the win/loss records between the two teams.  We would deviate from there.  According to our studies, the regular season deltaWAA table does not apply to the playoff season.

If playoff Clayton Kershaw comes out to pitch tonight like he did in NLCS  Game 6 last year this becomes a 50/50 game or the Cubs could even be favored.   Right now we can’t make any assumptions other than using regular season numbers.  CC Sabathia, a playoff problem pitcher, has pitched well for NYA in the playoffs so far this year as well as Masahiro Tanaka who had a bad regular season.  Lester is pitching far better than his regular season numbers.  Lester has a very positive history in the playoff season.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+023+ 2.79 133.3 2.63 19 5 Jon_Lester_TOT PITCH

The above doesn’t include his data for the playoffs this year.  In December when we get the 2017 playoff data Lester should rise a few notches from rank #23 of all players in the playoffs since 1903.  Past results don’t affect future results.  Past results can  only show capability.

With the disparity between these two starters, the Ouija Board looks right where our simulation would end up had we finished the code.  This will be an off season work in progress and maybe we’ll show some study results every now and then.  If the Cubs win tonight we’ll be back doing this Saturday, and if not, Oh well.  Until then….

ALCS Game 4

Yankees are now tied 2-2 with the Astros in ALCS and today is game 4 of that series.  Here is what the Ouija Board says:

DATE 10_18 5:00_PM HOU NYA
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.545 ] < 0.519 >
STARTAWAY 4.87(0.650) Dallas_Keuchel_HOU
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.476 ] < 0.505 >
STARTHOME -1.72(0.457) Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA

As we mentioned before in ALCS game 1 Masahiro Tanaka has a solid career in MLB and Japan Pacific League but not so good this year.  Tanaka pitched well in game 1 as well as Keuchel.  Both NYA and HOU have Tier 1 lineups.  Today HOU has a starter advantage looking at raw numbers and NYA has a clear relief advantage.  HOU relief lost them game 3 yesterday and from our value chart they were tied with MIN for worst relief of all 10 teams in the 2017 playoffs.

This looks like an even steven game which is where the betting market is right now.  If you think Tanaka will pitch like last season Tanaka then NYA are clear favorites based on the disparity in relief value between the two teams.

Anyway, that is all for today.  Cubs are down 0-3 and it’s very rare a team ever comes back from that in a seven game series in any sport.  The Cubs may play to win one for Joe today or they may want to let this series end tonight and put us out of our misery.  Here is their current line.

DATE 10_18 9:00_PM LAN CHN
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.495 ] < 0.524 >
STARTAWAY 5.77(0.671) Alex_Wood_LAN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.528 ] < 0.524 >
STARTHOME 3.17(0.585) Jake_Arrieta_CHN

Even the line doesn’t know how to bet this game.   As someone said at the local pub last night, after NLDS game 5 the Cubs are playing on House money.  We have nothing to be sad about.

This blog may go silent for awhile.  There’s a lot of code to write and finish for next season.  Until then….