Category Archives: Career Ranking

Who are these new guys? Part 3

Today the Cubs play White Sox in a doesn’t matter pre season game so there should be new guys on each side.  This post will be another table dump showing each player’s trajectory through A+, AA, and AAA.   Let’s start with starting pitcher for CHA.

Note: It appears Cubs are using a real starting lineup and so far, 3rd inning, there are very few CHN new guys that we haven’t already covered.  Current team affiliation in table title.

Manny Banuelos CHA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +196+ 1.57 Manny_Banuelos_LAN PITCH 0.568 aaa 27
2017 XXXXX -1.43 Manny_Banuelos_ANA PITCH 0.432 aaa 26
2016 XXXXX -0.48 Manny_Banuelos_ATL PITCH 0.429 aaa 25
2016 XXXXX -0.71 Manny_Banuelos_ATL PITCH 0.325 aa 25
2015 XXXXX -0.69 Manny_Banuelos_ATL PITCH XXX mlb
2015 +037+ 3.49 Manny_Banuelos_ATL PITCH 0.685 aaa 24
2014 XXXXX 0.29 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.587 aaa 23
2014 XXXXX -0.92 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.416 aa 23
2014 XXXXX 0.38 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.635 aplus 23
2012 XXXXX -0.13 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.476 aaa 21
2011 XXXXX 0.42 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.555 aaa 20
2011 XXXXX 1.28 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.560 aa 20
2010 XXXXX 0.19 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.556 aa 19
2010 +147+ 1.97 Manny_Banuelos_NYA PITCH 0.700 aplus 19

Manny had a decent season for the Dodgers’ AAA affiliate and now plays for CHA.  At age 27 he probably should be in MLB this season if he can make it.  Gave up 2 earned runs in 1.1 IP so that’s not a good sign.  Don’t know what his current preseason stats are though.

Luis Lugo CHN

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.10 Luis_Lugo_KCA PITCH 0.481 aa 24
2017 XXXXX -1.30 Luis_Lugo_CLE PITCH 0.456 aa 23
2016 XXXXX -0.29 Luis_Lugo_CLE PITCH 0.490 aplus 22
2015 XXXXX -1.34 Luis_Lugo_CLE PITCH 0.452 aplus 21

Luis Lugo is a minor league starter on the Cubs’ AA affiliate and he hasn’t pitched well.  Still very young.  Pitchers can be very finicky from season to season.

Yonder Alonso CHA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +165+ 1.97 Yonder_Alonso_CLE 1B XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 1.55 Yonder_Alonso_TOT 1B XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 1.24 Yonder_Alonso_OAK 1B XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.23 Yonder_Alonso_SEA 1B XXX mlb
2016 -159- -1.81 Yonder_Alonso_OAK 1B XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.92 Yonder_Alonso_SDN 1B XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 0.15 Yonder_Alonso_SDN BAT NA aaa 28
2015 XXXXX -0.08 Yonder_Alonso_SDN BAT NA aplus 28
2014 XXXXX -0.90 Yonder_Alonso_SDN 1B XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX -0.32 Yonder_Alonso_SDN BAT NA aaa 27
2013 XXXXX -0.17 Yonder_Alonso_SDN 1B XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX -0.02 Yonder_Alonso_SDN BAT NA aaa 26
2012 -051- -3.09 Yonder_Alonso_SDN 1B XXX mlb
2011 XXXXX 0.32 Yonder_Alonso_CIN LF XXX mlb
2011 XXXXX -0.04 Yonder_Alonso_CIN BAT 0.498 aaa 24
2010 XXXXX -0.15 Yonder_Alonso_CIN X XXX mlb
2010 XXXXX -0.46 Yonder_Alonso_CIN BAT 0.480 aaa 23
2010 XXXXX 0.38 Yonder_Alonso_CIN BAT 0.560 aa 23
2009 XXXXX -0.15 Yonder_Alonso_CIN BAT 0.476 aa 22
2009 XXXXX 1.09 Yonder_Alonso_CIN BAT 0.604 aplus 22
2008 XXXXX -0.32 Yonder_Alonso_CIN BAT NA aplus 21

Yonder Alonso is a new guy for CHA but not a new guy in MLB.  He had a decent season ranked in top 200 last season and has moved around a lot from team to team during his career.

Eloy Jimenez CHA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 0.53 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.557 aaa 21
2018 +057+ 2.67 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.725 aa 21
2017 XXXXX 0.17 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.545 aa 20
2017 +120+ 1.74 Eloy_Jimenez_CHN BAT 0.692 aplus 20
2017 +120+ 1.95 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.807 aplus 20

He’s the guy Cubs gave up for Quintana in order to shore up a weak starting rotation to make another World Series run in 2017.  The above numbers show how dominant he has been in minors.  That does not necessarily guarantee dominance in MLB.  Sox could call him up this season if they want to make a run for a playoff spot.

Zack Collins CHA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 0.38 Zack_Collins_CHA BAT 0.514 aa 23
2017 XXXXX 0.19 Zack_Collins_CHA BAT 0.581 aa 22
2017 +178+ 1.60 Zack_Collins_CHA BAT 0.572 aplus 22
2016 XXXXX 0.80 Zack_Collins_CHA BAT 0.600 aplus 21

Slightly above average minor league pitcher.  At age 23 he’s very young and could help the Sox next season or maybe even late this season.

Yolmer Sanchez CHA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2017 XXXXX -0.80 Yolmer_Sanchez_CHA 2B-3B XXX mlb

Not sure where Yolmer came from.  He only has one MLB record for 2017 missing 2018 and no minor league records.  Played a full season in 2017 slightly below average.

Tony Barnette CHN

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 1.11 Tony_Barnette_TEX PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 0.38 Tony_Barnette_TEX PITCH NA aa 34
2017 -196- -1.51 Tony_Barnette_TEX PITCH XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.32 Tony_Barnette_TEX PITCH NA aaa 33
2016 +103+ 2.94 Tony_Barnette_TEX PITCH XXX mlb
2009 -004- -6.11 Tony_Barnette_ARI PITCH 0.333 aaa 25
2008 XXXXX 1.99 Tony_Barnette_ARI PITCH 0.558 aa 24

Looks like there’s a 6 year missing gap between 2009, when he totally tanked for the Arizona Diamondbacks AAA affiliate, and 2016.  According to baseball-reference he played in Japan during those seasons.  He pitched well last season but had a rough 2017.  We’ll see how this acquisition turns out this season because past results don’t affect future results.

Junichi Tazawa CHN

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -140- -1.91 Junichi_Tazawa_TOT PITCH XXX mlb
2018 -140- -2.25 Junichi_Tazawa_MIA PITCH XXX mlb
2018 -140- 0.36 Junichi_Tazawa_ANA PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX -0.92 Junichi_Tazawa_DET PITCH NA aaa 32
2017 XXXXX -0.02 Junichi_Tazawa_MIA PR XXX mlb
2017 -159- -1.74 Junichi_Tazawa_MIA PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.04 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.25 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX 1.24 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 1.11 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2012 +108+ 2.67 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2012 XXXXX 1.74 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH 0.685 aaa 26
2011 XXXXX -0.15 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2011 XXXXX 0.71 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH 0.723 aaa 25
2011 XXXXX -0.25 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH 0.451 aa 25
2011 XXXXX -0.80 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH 0.313 aplus 25
2009 -153- -1.85 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2009 XXXXX 0.48 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH 0.691 aaa 23
2009 XXXXX 3.23 Junichi_Tazawa_BOS PITCH 0.648 aa 23

He pitched well for BOS between 2012 and 2014 which includes their 2013 WS run.  2017 and 2018 weren’t very good however.  Hopefully the Cubs can get one last good year out of him.

Kelvin Herrera CHA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +194+ 1.76 Kelvin_Herrera_TOT PITCH XXX mlb
2018 +194+ 1.89 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2018 +194+ -0.08 Kelvin_Herrera_WAS PITCH XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.17 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2016 +139+ 2.42 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2015 +158+ 1.99 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +056+ 3.80 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 0.04 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 1.13 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH 0.818 aaa 23
2012 +075+ 3.23 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH XXX mlb
2011 XXXXX 1.01 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH 0.767 aaa 21
2011 +117+ 2.10 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH 0.762 aa 21
2011 XXXXX 1.28 Kelvin_Herrera_KCA PITCH 0.892 aplus 21

Not sure how CHA acquired Kelvin Herrera but the above shows a pretty decent career as a reliever.  Totally dominated minor leagues looking at Win%

That is all for now.  Will do another one of these in the future picking some game at random.  This is rather labor intensive copy/pasting these tables.  A searchable web site is in the works.  A post about Arenado, Harper, and Bryant coming next.  Who is better?  Until then ….

Hall of Fame Part 3

In this part we’ll cover the other 3 MLB hall of fame inductees from the latest vote which can be seen here.   Below is a bunch of career tables showing year by year valuations for both WAR and WAA value systems.  According to this data model all 3 deserve HOF induction with the weakest being Edgar Martinez who squeaked in on his last year of eligibility.

This data model abhors tables of numbers but there is no other way to present these long careers.  Comments will be interspersed among the tables.  Order is their appearance on the HOF voting ballot according to this baseball-reference web site.

Edgar Martinez WAA

Edgar Martinez is ranked #214 of all post 1900 MLB players according to this data model which just barely gets him in.  The threshold should be somewhere between 200 and 250.  Ranking score for this data model is 1120.  WAR has him ranked much higher with a ranking score of 1974.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1987 XXXXX -0.02 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1988 XXXXX -0.34 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1989 XXXXX -0.15 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1990 XXXXX -0.32 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1991 XXXXX 1.13 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1992 +034+ 5.17 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1993 XXXXX -0.53 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH-3B
1994 XXXXX 0.10 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1995 +005+ 8.53 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1996 +024+ 7.33 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1997 +041+ 5.50 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1998 +117+ 2.88 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1999 +180+ 1.83 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2000 +013+ 8.13 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2001 +030+ 6.36 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2002 XXXXX 0.82 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2003 +129+ 2.77 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2004 -093- -2.44 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
Total 46.75  1120

Edgar Martinez WAR

Below is an extended WAR table available for hitters in WAR.  WAR has an offensive component oWAR and a defensive component dWAR.  The two cannot be added together to make WAR because WAR does not have additive properties.

Normally this model adheres to a Keep It Simple Policy (KISS) meaning fewer entries in a table the better.  The total (or whatever) WAR is used for sorting and ranking both pitchers and batters together, like what is done for this data model throughout.

Year Rank WAR oWAR dWAR PA Name_Tm Pos
1987 XXXXX 0.2 0.4 -0.2 46 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1988 XXXXX -0.1 0.1 -0.2 38 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1989 XXXXX 0.5 0.0 0.6 196 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1990 +022+ 5.5 4.2 1.5 572 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1991 +017+ 6.1 5.5 0.8 642 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1992 +011+ 6.6 7.1 -0.7 592 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1993 XXXXX 0.2 0.5 -0.4 165 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH-3B
1994 +079+ 3.0 2.4 0.5 387 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1995 +006+ 7.0 7.2 -1.4 639 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1996 +021+ 6.4 6.4 -1.1 634 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1997 +020+ 6.2 6.1 -1.3 678 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1998 +044+ 5.6 5.6 -1.4 672 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1999 +046+ 4.9 4.8 -1.1 608 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2000 +029+ 5.6 5.6 -1.2 665 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2001 +051+ 4.8 4.8 -1.1 581 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2002 +163+ 2.6 2.6 -0.8 407 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2003 +117+ 3.3 3.3 -1.2 603 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2004 XXXXX -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 549 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
Total 68.1 1974

WAR has a ranking score of 1974, significantly higher than this data model’s 1120.   We know from his poor dWAR numbers this is totally due to offense which makes him a good direct comparison between the two models.  This model shows why it took him 10 years to get in.  He should have gotten in much sooner according to WAR.

WAR tends to over value hitters based upon anecdotal observation.  We know the sum of WAR hitters consists of 60% of the league total of 1000 year after year.  This might be due to overvaluing oWAR.   Perhaps we’ll explore this further … perhaps not.  It doesn’t really matter.

Roy Halladay WAA

This data model has Roy Halladay ranked #125 out of all post 1900 MLB players so he clearly qualifies for HOF and he gets in on first ballot with 85% of the vote.  He had very bad years in 2000 and 2013 but made all that negative value back and more with many superb top ten years.

WAR and WAA are almost in complete agreement according to ranking scores highlighted in brown.  Both systems pegged him #1 in the bottom 200 in 2000.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1998 XXXXX 0.80 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
1999 +129+ 2.77 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2000 -001- -9.24 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2001 +111+ 2.94 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2002 +014+ 7.58 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2003 +015+ 7.33 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2004 XXXXX 1.09 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2005 +024+ 6.15 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2006 +017+ 7.08 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2007 +061+ 3.97 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2008 +006+ 8.84 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2009 +008+ 8.42 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2010 +003+ 9.37 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2011 +006+ 8.32 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2012 -128- -1.81 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2013 -027- -4.20 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
Total 59.41  1362

Roy Halladay WAR

Year Rank WAR IP Name_Tm Pos
1998 XXXXX 0.4 14.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
1999 +160+ 2.6 149.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2000 -001- -2.8 67.2 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2001 +125+ 3.0 105.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2002 +005+ 7.4 239.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2003 +004+ 8.1 266.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2004 +179+ 2.4 133.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2005 +025+ 5.5 141.2 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2006 +029+ 5.2 220.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2007 +098+ 3.5 225.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2008 +019+ 6.2 246.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2009 +011+ 6.9 239.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2010 +002+ 8.3 250.2 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2011 +001+ 8.9 233.2 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2012 XXXXX 0.9 156.1 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2013 -065- -0.9 62.0 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
Total 65.6  1408

Mike Mussina WAA

Mike Mussina gets voted in after 6 years with 76% vote.  This data model has him ranked #123, almost exactly tied with Roy Halladay above.   WAR has his career valued much higher than all current HOF inductees based upon ranking score.

Even though Mussina and Halladay are virtually tied in career WAA,  Mussina has a much higher ranking score.   Career WAA is the only factor used for ranking purposes, both seasonal and year to year.  Ranking scores are only computed to compare how WAA values a player with WAR.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1991 +134+ 2.10 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1992 +012+ 6.66 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1993 XXXXX -0.99 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1994 +008+ 6.38 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1995 +019+ 6.38 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1996 XXXXX -1.49 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1997 +030+ 5.96 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1998 +065+ 4.79 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1999 +037+ 5.84 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2000 +037+ 5.61 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2001 +026+ 6.64 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2002 XXXXX 1.03 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2003 +055+ 4.77 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2004 XXXXX -0.44 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2005 XXXXX -0.36 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2006 +051+ 4.64 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2007 -099- -2.44 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2008 +049+ 4.51 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
Total 59.59 1776

Mike Mussina WAR

Year Rank WAR IP Name_Tm Pos
1991 XXXXX 2.2 87.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1992 +004+ 8.2 241.0 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1993 XXXXX 1.5 167.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1994 +012+ 5.4 176.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1995 +014+ 6.1 221.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1996 +086+ 3.6 243.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1997 +027+ 5.5 224.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1998 +055+ 5.0 206.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1999 +065+ 4.4 203.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2000 +026+ 5.6 237.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2001 +013+ 7.1 228.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2002 +056+ 4.5 215.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2003 +013+ 6.6 214.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2004 +177+ 2.4 164.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2005 +110+ 3.4 179.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2006 +035+ 5.0 197.1 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2007 XXXXX 1.0 152.0 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2008 +038+ 5.2 200.1 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
Total 82.7  2269

Next season Clemens and Bonds will probably get in breaking the no PEDs seal.  We’ll run through a couple of interesting careers who didn’t make the 75% in the next, and possibly final, part to this series.  Until then ….

Hall of Fame Part 2

It appears the HOF voting table referenced in Part 1 had percentages from last season.  They just held a vote and Mariano Rivera got unanimous vote.  According to this data model the career of Mariano Rivera is slightly below Curt Schilling ( tables at the end).   He is ranked #95 in MLB history which should clearly put him into HOF but HOF voters are a fickle bunch.  They never agree on anything.  How could Rivera get unanimous first ballot?

Simple.  Mariano Rivera is by far the most valuable player in post season history according to this data model and anyone who looks at his play off stats.

Top 10 Players in Playoff Season

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+001+ 9.30 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
+002+ 6.17 Christy_Mathewson_SFN PITCH
+003+ 5.46 Bernie_Williams_NYA RF-DH-CF
+004+ 4.89 Manny_Ramirez_TOT LF
+005+ 4.62 Albert_Pujols_TOT 1B-DH
+006+ 4.37 John_Smoltz_TOT PITCH
+007+ 4.18 David_Ortiz_TOT DH
+008+ 4.05 Curt_Schilling_TOT PITCH
+009+ 4.01 Carlos_Beltran_TOT DH
+010+ 3.78 Babe_Ruth_TOT OF-RF-LF

All playoff games are treated as a single season.  A usual modern season will have around 1500 unique players.  From 1903 to present there have been more than 7800 unique players or around 5x a standard season.

Correction 2/22/2019:  From 1903 – present there are only around 4000 unique players or around 3x a regular season.  I messed up the DB search.

Bernie Williams in the above list had 545 playoff season plate appearances which is almost a full regular season of playing time.   Babe Ruth, on the other hand, had only 167 playoff season plate appearances yet he still ranks #10.  He ranks #67 as a pitcher and if you add the two together, which you can,  Ruth would be ranked #5.  He’s the only player in MLB history with both a stellar PITCH and BAT record.

Due to the fact that there are far more playoff games played now than in the past modern players will eventually rise to the top of this list.  Mariano Rivera will probably never be topped however.   Christy Mathewson started his career in 1900 and held the top spot until Rivera came along.

Let’s look at Mariano’s extended record.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+001+ 9.30 141.0 0.70 0 97 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH

141 innings pitched in 97 games in relief is around two complete reliever seasons and almost a complete season for a starter.  An ERA under 1 is simply phenomenal that may never happen again.  Curt Schilling is also in the top ten at #8.

Below are the details of Mariano Rivera’s career according to both this data model and WAR.

Mariano Rivera Career

WAA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1995 -163- -1.64 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1996 +033+ 6.40 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1997 +070+ 4.07 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1998 +090+ 3.57 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1999 +064+ 4.64 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2000 +101+ 3.49 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2001 +081+ 3.86 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2002 XXXXX 1.62 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2003 +066+ 4.43 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2004 +052+ 4.64 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2005 +031+ 5.38 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2006 +046+ 4.77 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2007 +162+ 2.18 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2008 +044+ 4.83 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2009 +065+ 3.93 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2010 +093+ 3.19 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2011 +095+ 2.88 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2012 XXXXX 0.36 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2013 +110+ 2.65 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
Total 65.25  1960

His best year was 1996, his second season and second best year was 2005.  Overall he was consistently good every single year.  The ranking score highlighted in brown can be directly compared with the ranking score calculated for the WAR value system below.

WAR

Year Rank WAR IP Name_TeamID Pos
1995 XXXXX 0.2 67.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1996 +048+ 5.0 107.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1997 +088+ 3.7 71.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1998 +151+ 2.8 61.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1999 +100+ 3.5 69.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2000 +156+ 2.6 75.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2001 +111+ 3.3 80.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2002 XXXXX 1.6 46.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2003 +097+ 3.6 70.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2004 +068+ 4.2 78.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2005 +074+ 4.0 78.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2006 +083+ 3.9 75.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2007 XXXXX 1.9 71.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2008 +071+ 4.3 70.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2009 +099+ 3.5 66.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2010 +179+ 2.4 60.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2011 +112+ 3.2 61.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2012 XXXXX 0.4 8.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2013 +172+ 2.5 64.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
Total 56.6  1391

With a 1391 ranking score WAR has him less valued than this data model by a significant margin.  I do not have any WAR information about post season and doubt that can even be calculated.

Not much more to say about Mariano Rivera except he totally deserves a unanimous first ballot induction.  In subsequent parts will cover the other inductees and the ones who almost made it.  Until then ….

Hall of Fame Part 1

Curt Schilling was trending on Twitter with people discussing whether or not he should be in the Hall of Fame.  Being winter with no baseball games to follow let’s run this question through this data model.

One thing led to another which led yet again to baseball-reference.com with a table on the current HOF ballot.  In Part 1 of this series we’ll just look at Curt Shilling and then in subsequent parts explore the rest of the players on the ballot. It appears no one was elected except for the old timers in 2019.  The steroid era has hit retirement.

Edit: Apparently the vote percentages listed in the table were from last year.  Mariano Rivera gets unanimous vote and will be the subject of Part 2.

Should Curt Schilling be in the Hall of Fame?

How does one go about evaluating a career?  Here is how a Philadelphia newspaper summed up his entire career:

Schilling spent 20 years in the league as a pitcher, posting a 216-146 record and a career 3.46 ERA with three teams — the Phillies, Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Source: Trump wants Curt Schilling in the Hall of Fame, but his endorsement is a little too late

Can anyone tell if the above description of a pitcher makes him HOF worthy?  In order to do that you would have to see that player in the context of other HOF inductees.  This model ranks all players, hitters and pitchers, together and all careers for players who played in post 1900 are ranked together.

tl;dr Curt Schilling had a career total WAA=70.21 ranking him #85 out of all MLB players who played post 1900.  That puts him in the HOF.  He only got slightly higher than 50% of HOF votes, well short of the required 75%.

Let’s dive into the details…

Curt Schilling

WAA Table

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1988 -093- -2.06 Curt_Schilling_BAL PITCH
1989 XXXXX -0.50 Curt_Schilling_BAL PITCH
1990 XXXXX 1.45 Curt_Schilling_BAL PITCH
1991 XXXXX 0.19 Curt_Schilling_HOU PITCH
1992 +007+ 7.77 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1993 XXXXX 0.55 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1994 XXXXX 0.02 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1995 +129+ 2.35 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1996 +032+ 6.43 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1997 +010+ 8.86 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1998 +023+ 7.12 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1999 +053+ 4.93 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
2000 +056+ 2.27 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
2000 +056+ 2.46 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2001 +011+ 8.29 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2002 +028+ 6.28 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2003 +037+ 5.56 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2004 +024+ 6.32 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
2005 -059- -2.96 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
2006 +120+ 2.67 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
2007 +160+ 2.21 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
Total 70.21 1806

1997 was his best year according to this data model followed by 2001.  The number highlighted in brown is his total career ranking score.  A ranking score is used to compare two different value systems.  The WAR table is shown below also with a ranking score.

A value system must itself be evaluated by how it ranks players with each other.  This data model ranks the top and bottom 200 based upon a sort and reverse sort of the WAA weighting measure.  WAA can go negative as easily as it can go positive.

WAR is different.  Its weighting system rarely dives into negative territory allowing It to be  more forgiving to players.  We can’t directly compare the two weighting systems.  WAR for pitcher adds to 400 league wide, WAR for hitters adds to 600.   WAA adds to 0 for both hitters and batters.

The ranking system is computed as follows:

total ranking score += 200 - rank ( for top 200 players )
total ranking score += rank - 200  ( for bottom 200 players )

The higher you rank in the top 200 the more ranking score you add, vice versa for high bottom 200 ranks.  A rank of #1 in the bottom 200 is least value player in the league.  Let’s look at the WAR table.

WAR Table

Year Rank WAR IP Name_Tm Pos
1988 -064- -0.8 14.2 Curt_Schilling_BAL PITCH
1989 XXXXX -0.1 8.2 Curt_Schilling_BAL PITCH
1990 XXXXX 1.2 46.0 Curt_Schilling_BAL PITCH
1991 XXXXX -0.1 75.2 Curt_Schilling_HOU PITCH
1992 +027+ 5.9 226.1 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1993 +150+ 2.6 235.1 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1994 XXXXX 1.2 82.1 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1995 +164+ 2.2 116.0 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1996 +049+ 4.9 183.1 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1997 +019+ 6.3 254.1 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1998 +031+ 6.2 268.2 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
1999 +047+ 4.8 180.1 Curt_Schilling_PHI PITCH
2000 +036+ 5.1 210.1 Curt_Schilling_TOT PITCH
2001 +006+ 8.8 256.2 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2002 +004+ 8.7 259.1 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2003 +021+ 6.0 168.0 Curt_Schilling_ARI PITCH
2004 +010+ 7.9 226.2 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
2005 XXXXX 0.4 93.1 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
2006 +023+ 5.5 204.0 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
2007 +074+ 4.0 151.0 Curt_Schilling_BOS PITCH
Total 80.7 2003

The above table format is a work in progress.  IP is innings pitched which shows time.  The Total line is total WAR and WAR ranking score highlighted in brown.

WAR has Curt’s best seasons 2001 and 2002.  Their ranking score of 2003 means WAR thinks even more highly of Curt Schilling than this model — but not much.  The two systems are very close on this career.   I do not rank career WAR by weighting factor since WAR does not have additive properties and will return deceptive results.  The ranking score is more  accurate for evaluating a player with regard to WAR.

That is all for now.  More HOF career analysis coming soon.  Until then ….

Minor Leagues Reboot Part 2

In Part 1 we rehashed an old list from 2013 about all the home grown players on the Cardinals from that year.  Today we’ll cover the home grown players on the 2018 Cubs.   Below is a list of all home grown players with > 1 WAA for 2018 — same criteria used in Part 1.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+012+ 7.29 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B
+091+ 2.94 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+092+ 2.94 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+189+ 1.78 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 1.05 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 1.01 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B

Ranks are only given to the top and bottom 200.  The XXXXX rank designation means unranked.   Tables below are revised from Part 1 to show year in first column and age is added for minor league records only.

Javier Baez

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +012+ 7.29 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B XXX mlb
2017 +090+ 3.25 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.88 Javier_Baez_CHN 3B-2B-SS XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.99 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-3B XXX mlb
2015 +021+ 4.12 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.753 aaa 22
2014 XXXXX -0.34 Javier_Baez_CHN SS-2B XXX mlb
2014 +020+ 4.01 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.677 aaa 21
2013 +010+ 4.26 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.841 aa 20
2013 +064+ 3.17 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.681 aplus 20
2012 XXXXX 0.04 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.509 aplus 19

The WinPct column shows Javier Baez had an incredible minor league run.  A rate greater than 0.600 is very good, greater than 0.700 extremely good, and greater than 0.800 top shelf good. Baez struggled his first two years in MLB and then found his groove.

Baez had teammates Kyle Hendricks and Justin Bour on the 2013  AA  Tennessee Smokies.  Baez was only 20 at the time which is very young for AA level.  He had a career year in 2017 and exceeded that year by being the leading MVP candidate, according to this data model, all the way to the last week of 2018.

Anthony Rizzo

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +091+ 2.94 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2017 +033+ 4.85 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B-2B XXX mlb
2016 +021+ 5.44 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2015 +033+ 4.54 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2014 +050+ 3.93 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 0.17 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2012 XXXXX 0.80 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2012 +023+ 4.16 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN BAT 0.781 aaa 22
2011 -161- -1.68 Anthony_Rizzo_SDN 1B XXX mlb
2011 +006+ 6.83 Anthony_Rizzo_SDN BAT 0.818 aaa  21
2010 +021+ 4.37 Anthony_Rizzo_BOS BAT 0.680 aa 20
2010 XXXXX 1.47 Anthony_Rizzo_BOS BAT 0.709 aplus 20
2009 XXXXX -0.50 Anthony_Rizzo_BOS BAT 0.458 aplus 19

Anthony Rizzo came up via Boston and due to  Theo Epstein also coming from Boston, transitive law applies so Rizzo is considered home grown.  He currently has consistent not too flashy numbers just like what Ron Santo put up year after year for the Cubs during his  HOF career.  At age 21 Rizzo tore up AAA for the Padres affiliate.  Cubs were lucky he didn’t play well for San Diego in MLB causing them to trade him.

Kyle Hendricks

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +092+ 2.94 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2017 +047+ 4.26 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2016 +002+ 8.88 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.15 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +131+ 2.33 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +161+ 1.81 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.579 aaa 24
2013 XXXXX 1.57 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.677 aaa 23
2013 +001+ 5.80 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.707 aa 23
2012 XXXXX 0.08 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.521 aplus 22
2012 +038+ 3.86 Kyle_Hendricks_TEX PITCH 0.633 aplus 22
2011 XXXXX 0.06 Kyle_Hendricks_TEX PITCH NA aa

Another Cub who dominated each level of minor leagues.  He should have been Cy Young winner in 2016 but helped win a World Series trophy instead.  Hendricks is currently part of  the top 25 MLB players for the three year  2016, 2017, 2018 career splits according to this data model.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +189+ 1.78 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2017 +163+ 2.08 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.32 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX -0.08 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.486 aaa 24
2015 XXXXX 0.00 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 0.88 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.625 aaa 23
2015 XXXXX 0.67 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.627 aa 23
2014 +169+ 1.64 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.654 aa 22

Carl Edwards was a high level starting prospect but now puts up consistent numbers as a reliever.

Kyle Schwarber

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 XXXXX 1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.76 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.832 aaa 24
2016 XXXXX -0.13 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT XXX mlb
2015 +049+ 3.76 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF-CR XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 0.19 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.554 aaa 22
2015 +059+ 2.73 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.716 aa 22
2014 XXXXX 1.36 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.637 aplus 21

In 2017 Kyle Schwarber was sent down to Iowa because he was suffering a slump and tore up AAA with a greater than 0.800 WinPct.  In 2015 Cubs brought him up sporadically and even playing less than 1/2 season ranked in top 50 of MLB players.  His WinPct, the rate of WAA increase over time is phenomenal that year.  This model does not publish rates for MLB time because the weighting factor (WAA) is all that matters in the top league.  Schwarber had decent but unranked 2017 and 2018.  The 2016 record is an extremely small sample size that does not include his contributions to winning a World Series trophy for the Cubs and making Pete Rose eat a giant plate of crow.

Schwarber has proven upside potential where he could put up MVP numbers next season if he finds his groove.  Nobody can predict the future.

Kris Bryant

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 XXXXX 1.05 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF XXX mlb
2017 +102+ 2.96 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B XXX mlb
2016 +007+ 7.01 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF XXX mlb
2015 +027+ 4.75 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 1.01 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT NA aaa 23
2014 +030+ 3.84 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT 0.748 aaa 22
2014 +003+ 5.63 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT 0.864 aa 22
2013 XXXXX 0.76 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT 0.735 aplus 21

Kris is another home grown Cubs player who tore up all three minor leagues below MLB based on his extremely high WinPct rates in those leagues.  He was MVP ranked #7 out of all players by this data model in 2016.  He dropped off in 2017 and 2018 but still above average.

David Bote

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 XXXXX 1.01 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 1.13 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.582 aaa 25
2017 XXXXX 0.38 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.514 aa 24
2016 XXXXX 0.17 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aaa 23
2016 XXXXX -0.40 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aa 23
2016 +075+ 2.77 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.670 aplus 23
2014 XXXXX 0.32 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aaa 21
2013 XXXXX 0.17 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aplus 20

The age column provides some perspective on prospects and David Bote advanced to MLB at age 25, two years older than other prospects.  He had a good run in A+ in 2016 and the Cubs tried to promote him to AA and then AAA.  He went back to AA in 2017 with average success and then hit well in AAA during the start of 2018.

That is all for now.  Part 3 will cover the 2019 White Sox prospects when we get an idea as to what their roster will look like.  Season simulations up next.  Until then ….