Category Archives: Historical Ranking

1919 World Series Part 10

Epilogue

The series is over and the favored White Sox lost.  The Mafia who bet the entire series collected their winnings while players in on the fix were hung out to dry.  This post will cover post season totals for White Sox players throughout the 1919 World Series and then some background into these players.

CHA Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA RP OBP Pos
+010+ 6.57 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 33 11 0.364 OF-LF-RF
+053+ 2.65 Chick_Gandil_CHA 31 6 0.258 1B
XXXXX 0.42 Ray_Schalk_CHA 28 5 0.393 CR
+021+ 4.98 Happy_Felsch_CHA 31 5 0.161 CF-OF
+020+ 5.00 Buck_Weaver_CHA 34 4 0.324 3B-SS
XXXXX -0.08 Swede_Risberg_CHA 30 3 0.233 SS-1B
+017+ 5.17 Eddie_Collins_CHA 35 3 0.257 2B
XXXXX 0.06 Shano_Collins_CHA 16 2 0.250 OF-RF
XXXXX 1.32 Fred_McMullin_CHA 2 0 0.500 3B
XXXXX 0.94 Nemo_Leibold_CHA 20 0 0.150 OF-RF-LF
XXXXX -0.59 Byrd_Lynn_CHA 1 0 0.000 CR
XXXXX 0.53 Eddie_Murphy_CHA 3 0 0.333 BAT

Game box scores typically involve a matrix of numbers which are mostly 0s.  The box score format this model now uses shows Plate Appearance which is a measure of time, Runs and RBIs, a measure of run production, Total Bases, Hits, and Walks, a measure of hitting.  Measures of hitting are game stats, measures of runs are value stats.  Runs win baseball games, hits can score runs with “can” being the key word.

OBP was chosen to display over batting average because it uses plate appearances  which is the measure of time for this data model and it incorporates Walks.  Batting averages are displayed in long form player reports taken from official sources.  Total Bases is used to calculate Slugging Percentage and the dreaded OPS which this model shuns as even a game stat.  Total Bases is useful to display in box scores however and it’s used as a basis for calculating run creation which is fodder for another post this off season.

The above is a consolidated summary table for the entire series sorted by the Run Production (RP) column from highest to lowest.  Run Production is simply Runs + RBIs — not too complicated.  RP is the foundation for calculating WAA.

Shoeless Joe had the highest Run Production of any White Sox player during the 1919 World Series with 11.   Five of those runs came in Game 8 which was a lost cause after the first inning.   Chick Gandil, the organizer of the fix for players comes in at #2.  Although Buck Weaver  hit 0.324 (he had no walks so his OBP=BA) as he claimed in the movie, he had very poor run production.

Top of the order guys like Shano and Eddie Collins, both not in on the fix, hit poorly and had very low run production.  Let’s look at errors and the unearned runs given up because of them.

CHA Errors

Name_TeamID Errors URuns
Happy_Felsch_CHA 2 0
Eddie_Cicotte_CHA 2 2
Swede_Risberg_CHA 4 1
Eddie_Collins_CHA 2 1
Ray_Schalk_CHA 1 1
Chick_Gandil_CHA 1 1
TOTAL 12 6

The White Sox gave up 6 runs over 12 errors.  Historically there are around 2 errors per unearned run.  In 1919 teams gave up an average of 113 unearned runs per team over 140 games or around 0.8 unearned runs per game.  That ratio was around 60/team in 2019 so there were about twice as many errors committed then than now.  Giving up six unearned runs as a team over 8 games is virtually league average and nothing out of the ordinary.  Let’s see what the Reds’ error numbers for this series look like.

CIN Errors

Name_TeamID Errors URuns
Larry_Kopf_CIN 1 1
Morrie_Rath_CIN 2 2
Heinie_Groh_CIN 3 2
Bill_Rariden_CIN 1 0
Edd_Roush_CIN 2 1
Ray_Fisher_CIN 1 1
Jake_Daubert_CIN 2 0
Greasy_Neale_CIN 1 0
TOTAL 13 7

They look about the same even though Reds had a much better Unearned Runs above average than White Sox in regular season.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO ERA
+004+ 8.76 Eddie_Cicotte_CHA 65 87 7 9 7 2.91
XXXXX 0.80 Dickey_Kerr_CHA 57 72 3 4 6 1.42
+047+ 2.81 Lefty_Williams_CHA 49 66 12 12 4 6.61
XXXXX 0.50 Roy_Wilkinson_CHA 22 34 3 4 3 3.68
-052- -1.76 Bill_James_CHA 14 23 3 4 2 5.79
XXXXX 1.22 Grover_Lowdermilk_CHA 3 7 1 1 0 9.00
-001- -5.82 Erskine_Mayer_CHA 3 5 0 1 0 0.00

Cicotte only threw one bad game which was Game 1.  He signaled to the mafia guys the fix was on by hitting the first batter which he did according to retrosheet event data.  Dickey Kerr pitched above his weight and Lefty Williams was the guy who blew three games in a row almost on his own.

Reds still needed 5 to win.  According to the movie the mob guys started stiffing players when they won Game 3  after an awesome pitching performance by Dickey Kerr, the only CHA starter  not in on the fix and the pitcher most likely to lose on his own.

None of the above numbers are unusual.   Nothing here proves or disproves a rigged series or who is in on the fix  just by looking at them.  When you get 8 players in on a conspiracy along with all the handlers funneling money to them it’s a  virtual impossibility this could be kept secret for long — especially after players in on the fix got ripped off by the mob guys just like Charles Comiskey ripped them off over their pennant bonus.

Based upon Eddie Collins’ poor performance one could suspect him being in on it.  It would seem impossible the other players didn’t know — especially catcher Ray Shaik.  In the end, according to the movie, the new commish Kenesaw Mountain Landis proclaimed just knowing there was a conspiracy and not reporting it was punishable.   Buck Weaver may not have taken money but he did nothing to stop it.

It is possible that after CHA won Game 5 and 6 they might have wanted to win out to double cross the mob guys screwing them.  The movie kind of suggested that.  Had Williams not totally blown Game 8 in the first inning the White Sox should have won that with 5 runs and Reds’ weak lineup.  Dickey Kerr would have pitched Game 9 with CHA’s poor relief to back him up.  Eyeballing the handicapping; that game could have been around a 50/50, even steven event.  The mob guys got mad after CHA won a few games, imagine how mad they would be if they lost the series after Cicotte signaled the fix was on with the first CIN batter in Game 1.

The conspiracy didn’t really unfold  until almost the end of the 1920 season.  Comiskey suspended Gandil for that season on his own which may have cost White Sox another World Series appearance.  The rest of the 8 played one more year before being banished from baseball for good.  Let’s look at some careers.

Eddie_Cicotte

Year Rank WAA TeamID Pos
1905 XXXXX -0.27 DET PITCH
1908 XXXXX -0.19 BOS PITCH
1909 +047+ 2.44 BOS PITCH
1910 XXXXX -0.15 BOS PITCH
1911 +046+ 3.11 BOS PITCH
1912 XXXXX -2.46 BOS PITCH
1912 XXXXX 1.49 CHA PITCH
1913 +004+ 9.55 CHA PITCH
1914 +023+ 5.42 CHA PITCH
1915 XXXXX -0.10 CHA PITCH
1916 +027+ 4.05 CHA PITCH
1917 +002+ 9.03 CHA PITCH
1918 XXXXX 0.32 CHA PITCH
1919 +004+ 8.76 CHA PITCH
1920 XXXXX 1.45 CHA PITCH
Total 42.45 1247

Cicotte had a mediocre last season in 1920.  The movie mentioned outlawing the spit ball in 1920  which presumably was a pitch Cicotte relied upon.  He had three tremendous seasons in 1913, 1917, and 1919.  White Sox played the Giants in 1917 in the World Series.  15 years is a decent career.  His total WAA probably doesn’t get him into HOF had he not been banished.

Shoeless_Joe_Jackson

Year Rank WAA TeamID Pos
1908 XXXXX -0.08 OAK BAT
1909 XXXXX 0.29 OAK BAT
1910 XXXXX 1.11 CLE OF
1911 +010+ 7.31 CLE OF
1912 +011+ 6.99 CLE OF
1913 +014+ 5.80 CLE OF
1914 +111+ 1.62 CLE OF-RF-CF
1915 +032+ 2.10 CLE OF-RF-1B
1915 +032+ 2.04 CHA OF-CF-LF
1916 +013+ 5.56 CHA OF-LF-RF
1917 +008+ 5.94 CHA OF-LF-RF
1918 +067+ 1.57 CHA OF-LF
1919 +010+ 6.57 CHA OF-LF-RF
1920 +005+ 9.53 CHA OF-LF
Total 56.35 1887

Shoeless Joe had a career year in 1920 and his total WAA puts him borderline into HOF.  Ron Santo has a career WAA of 56.53 and he just barely made it in.  Had Jackson played a bunch more years he probably would be clearly eligible according to this data model but that’s all water under the bridge now.  Even if they remove his banishment MLB can’t put him in for value he would have gained had he played several more years.

Lefty_Williams

Year Rank WAA TeamID Pos
1913 XXXXX -1.26 DET PITCH
1916 XXXXX -0.94 CHA PITCH
1917 -047- -1.74 CHA PITCH
1918 XXXXX 0.25 CHA PITCH
1919 +047+ 2.81 CHA PITCH
1920 -027- -3.09 CHA PITCH
Total -3.91 -173

Lefty Williams had a terrible 1920.  He was probably traumatized over being threatened by mob guys and standing out as the most visible among the eight after single handedly  blowing 3 World Series games.  White Sox fans probably weren’t very kind to him at home games.  1919 was his career year and it wasn’t that great either.

Buck_Weaver

Year Rank WAA TeamID Pos
1912 -032- -2.37 CHA SS
1913 -051- -1.83 CHA SS
1914 -054- -2.18 CHA SS
1915 XXXXX 0.69 CHA SS
1916 XXXXX -0.19 CHA 3B-SS
1917 XXXXX 0.61 CHA 3B-SS
1918 -043- -1.68 CHA SS-3B
1919 +020+ 5.00 CHA 3B-SS
1920 +043+ 3.36 CHA 3B-SS
Total 1.41 -283

Buck Weaver had a pretty average career with 1919 and 1920 being his best.  We saw above how Buck had a Run Production (R+RBI) of 4 during the 1919 World Series, one of the lowest of the CHA lineup.  He also had a low RP of 4 in 1917 when White Sox played the Giants in that  World Series.  By the time he figured out how to play baseball he got banished.  He wouldn’t have been HOF material but he could have helped the White Sox during the 1920s.

Comiskey suspended Chick Gandil for 1920.  Swede Risberg and Fred McMullen had their short careers ended after all 8 got banished.

That’s all for the 1919 World Series.  It was interesting to do a game by game analysis of this series because it is the only major fixing scandal in over a century of US professional sports.  The numbers we examined during this series don’t prove or disprove this series was fixed.  The only reason we know is because the probability of a leak in a conspiracy is proportional to the number of people involved in that conspiracy.   Now that we know the picture became clear.  And they made a movie and wrote books about it.  It’s also prominently featured in Ken Burns’ 9 part documentary on baseball — along with Disco Demolition. :-)

Probably won’t do a game by game playoff series again but one offs of certain high profile  games might be interesting.  Next up minor league compilation and a look see into who the Cubs and White Sox have (or don’t have) waiting in the wings for next Spring.  Until then ….

1919 World Series Part 9

I Netflixed the movie Eight Men Out on 4/17/2009 according to their records and finally watched it again before making this post about the 8th and last game of the 1919 World Series.  The purpose of this exercise was to integrate regular season data with post season and automate generating these reports accurately for every playoff series and  every game played in baseball since 1919.  I wanted to interpret this data  day by day without outside influence from movie script writers who often take artistic liberties with a story.

After watching Eight Men Out again the lens from which I see  data from these games has changed.

My assumption was that White Sox players may have been coy  providing cover for the fix by winning 3 games.  According to the movie they weren’t supposed to win Game 3. The mafia guys didn’t care about the players, they were betting Reds every game.  Losing Game 3 cost them money as well as possibly games 6 and 7.  The series is now 4-3 and the White Sox need to win the next two.  The mafia needs them to lose.   Let’s look at Game 8, the final game of the 1919 World Series.

CIN CHA 191910090

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN 52 x X X 0.62 1.61 1.93
CHA 36 x X X 4.08 1.10 -2.34

The handicapping report says this game was played in Chicago which meant another 9 hour sleep on the train trip from Cincinnati to Chicago for both teams.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hod_Eller_CIN 3.65 0.566 248.3 1.61
Lefty_Williams_CHA 2.81 0.543 297 1.10

Hod Eller must face a Tier 4 CHA lineup giving White Sox an advantage.  Lefty Williams is pretty much even steven with Reds’ relatively weak lineup.  Under normal circumstances White Sox would again be favored, but not as heavily as when Cicotte pitches.

According to the movie the mob guys threatened to kill Lefty’s wife if he didn’t throw this game which is a pretty big incentive to do what they say.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Score
CIN 4 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 10
CHA 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 5

And Lefty gives up 4 runs in the first and gets pulled and in comes someone from the CHA Tier -2.34 Relief staff, not in the fix,  in the first inning who allow Reds’ weak lineup to score another 6 runs.  CHA scores 5 and according to the movie Shoeless Joe and Buck Weaver may not have been “in on the fix.”  The movie suggests Weaver never received any money even though all the players in on the fix got ripped off by the mafia guys.  ProTip: Don’t make deals with the mafia.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+047+ 2.81 Lefty_Williams_CHA 1 5 4 4 0 SP
-052- -1.76 Bill_James_CHA 14 23 3 4 2 RP
XXXXX 0.50 Roy_Wilkinson_CHA 12 21 2 2 2 RP
TOTAL X X 27 49 9 10 4

Williams got one out, faced 5 players and gave up 4 unearned runs which pretty much meant game over in the first inning.  Then comes the seldom seen CHA relief staff, the dark underbelly of this great White Sox team.  Bill James is ranked #52 in the bottom 100 and gives up 3 earned runs, 1 unearned.  Wilkinson comes in and pitches the final 4 innings giving up 2.  Finally Reds bats faced pitchers they could hit which won them the NL pennant.

The unearned run comes from catcher Ray Schaik, not in on the fix.  His was the only error CHA made in this game.

CHA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
XXXXX 0.94 1 Nemo_Leibold_CHA 5 0 0 1 1 0 OF-RF-LF
+017+ 5.17 2 Eddie_Collins_CHA 5 1 0 4 3 0 2B
+020+ 5.00 3 Buck_Weaver_CHA 5 1 0 3 2 0 3B-SS
+010+ 6.57 4 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 5 2 3 6 2 0 OF-LF-RF
+021+ 4.98 5 Happy_Felsch_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 CF-OF
+053+ 2.65 6 Chick_Gandil_CHA 4 1 1 3 1 0 1B
XXXXX -0.08 7 Swede_Risberg_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 1 SS-1B
XXXXX 0.42 8 Ray_Schalk_CHA 4 0 0 1 1 0 CR
XXXXX 0.53 10 Eddie_Murphy_CHA 1 0 0 0 0 1 BAT
XXXXX -0.27 11 Bill_James_CHA 2 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
XXXXX 0.15 12 Roy_Wilkinson_CHA 1 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
TOTAL 25.65 X TIER=4.11 40 5 4 18 10 2 X

Shoeless Joe had a fantastic day driving in 3 and scoring twice with a solo home run in the third.  Buck Weaver went 2/5 scoring once.  The movie suggested both these players did not lay down. Even Chick Gandil, the alleged organizer of the fix, scored and drove in a run but by the 8th inning they were so far behind it didn’t matter.

The White Sox scored enough runs to win this game had an untainted Lefty Williams pitched to match his regular season performance.

We’ll skip Cincinnati’s box score since they racked up their runs on White Sox extremely poor relief.  Relief wasn’t very important in that era of baseball and only became important around 1980 but that’s fodder for another analysis.  In modern baseball teams typically carry 8 relievers and they all work.  In this World Series there are probably guys sitting on the bench who never played.

That is all for the 1919 World Series; a series that launched a lot of changes in baseball.  Tomorrow an epilogue will be posted looking at player totals and more reflections on the movie about this series.  Until then …

1919 World Series Part 8

White Sox are down 4-2 in a best of 9 series with Reds and today is Game 7 of the 1919 World Series.  The Sox could win this game to pad stats or simply get this entire ordeal over with, go home, and relax until next Spring.  If it were me I’d prefer the latter.  Today Eddie Cicotte, in on the fix,  starts.  He is one of the best players of 1919 ranked #4 with Babe Ruth and Walter Johnson #1 and #2.  Since Cicotte already lost 2 games this series would it be proper for him to lose a third?  Let’s see.

CHA CIN 191910080

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHA 36 x X X 3.75 4.70 -2.34
CIN 52 x X X 0.66 2.51 1.93

The above is a standard handicapping table used for regular season in modern baseball.  Since we don’t know the Vegas line  (Vegas didn’t exist back then) and TC Sim for this era of baseball is a work in progress we can’t calculate Expected Value (EV) — all explained during the 2019  season.

The Lineup (L), Starter (S) starter columns show CHA clear favorites for this game.  Guessing I would say  CHA would be favored greater than 60%.  Relief (R) column is irrelevant in this era of baseball.  Having only L and S columns to worry about greatly simplifies handicapping.  That’s fodder for future off season posts however.

So far, except for Game 6, White Sox would have been heavily favored in each game due to a massive Tier 4 lineup, a top top tier ace of a pitcher, and a pretty decent ranked second pitcher both of whom will pitch 6 of 8 games in this World Series.  Both top pitchers in the CHA rotation were in on the fix and their third starter, who won both games for CHA this series, wasn’t very good.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Eddie_Cicotte_CHA 8.76 0.629 306.7 4.70
Slim_Sallee_CIN 5.14 0.602 227.7 2.51

Slim Sallee is a top notch pitcher who is at Tier 2.51 based upon where he stands among all active MLB starters on end of August rosters.  Although very good he is still below the Tier 4 CHA lineup  he must face.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Score
CHA 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 4
CIN 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

The White Sox score first and early knowing Cincinnati has a weak lineup that probably would never catch up — especially with Cicotte on the mount.  This would indicate it was agreed upon  before hand this would be another pad your stats game.

CHA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
XXXXX 0.06 1 Shano_Collins_CHA 5 2 0 4 3 0 OF-RF
+017+ 5.17 2 Eddie_Collins_CHA 5 1 0 2 2 0 2B
+020+ 5.00 3 Buck_Weaver_CHA 4 1 0 0 0 0 3B-SS
+010+ 6.57 4 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 4 0 2 2 2 0 OF-LF-RF
+021+ 4.98 5 Happy_Felsch_CHA 4 0 2 1 1 0 CF-OF
+053+ 2.65 6 Chick_Gandil_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 1B
XXXXX -0.08 7 Swede_Risberg_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 SS-1B
XXXXX 0.42 8 Ray_Schalk_CHA 4 0 0 1 1 0 CR
XXXXX -1.01 9 Eddie_Cicotte_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
TOTAL 23.76 X TIER=3.75 38 4 4 12 9 0 X

Shoeless Joe, in on the fix, drives in a run with a single in the first and third inning setting the tone for the rest of the day.  Happy Felsch, in on the fix, drives in the other two in the fourth.  Both those runs were unearned to Slim Sallee, the Reds pitcher.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+004+ 8.76 Eddie_Cicotte_CHA 27 37 1 1 4 SP
TOTAL X X 27 37 1 1 4

Cicotte gives up only 1 earned run in a 9 inning complete game with no walks, a stellar performance and what one would expect from the #4 ranked player (both batters and pitchers) in MLB.  Eddie Collins, not in on the fix, committed the only White Sox error in this game and no runs scored because of it.

CIN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
-079- -1.51 1 Morrie_Rath_CIN 5 0 0 1 1 0 2B
XXXXX 0.50 2 Jake_Daubert_CIN 4 0 0 0 0 0 1B
+024+ 4.26 3 Heinie_Groh_CIN 4 1 0 2 1 0 3B
+033+ 3.53 4 Edd_Roush_CIN 4 0 0 0 0 0 CF-OF
XXXXX 0.63 5 Pat_Duncan_CIN 4 0 1 1 1 0 LF-OF
XXXXX 0.40 6 Larry_Kopf_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 0 SS
XXXXX -0.15 7 Greasy_Neale_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 0 OF-RF-LF
XXXXX 0.50 8 Ivey_Wingo_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 3 CR
XXXXX -0.53 9 Slim_Sallee_CIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
XXXXX -0.55 10 Dutch_Ruether_CIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
XXXXX -0.23 11 Dolf_Luque_CIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
XXXXX -0.69 12 Sherry_Magee_CIN 1 0 0 1 1 0 OF-LF
TOTAL 7.63 X TIER=0.66 37 1 1 8 7 3 X

This is a pretty weak lineup by World Series standards which made it difficult for White Sox to lose.  Morrie Rath was tagged for the two unearned runs CHA scored in the 5th.  Those were the only unearned runs in this game.

CIN Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+018+ 5.14 Slim_Sallee_CIN 13 23 2 4 0 SP
+034+ 3.49 Ray_Fisher_CIN 2 2 0 0 1 RP
XXXXX 0.97 Dolf_Luque_CIN 12 13 0 0 5 RP
TOTAL X X 27 38 2 4 6

Slim Sallee gets pulled after 4 1/3 innings pitched giving up 2 earned runs and 2 unearned runs.  Ray Fisher comes in from their starting rotation to put out a fire and then Dolf Luque comes in to pitch the last 4 innings.  Luque throws 5 strikeouts in those 4 innings which is high for this series and high for this era of baseball.  His career takes off next season in 1920.

At 4-3 this series has now turned into a best of three with CHA needing to win the next two in a row.  Game 8 is a definite must lose game for CHA.  I can imagine the gamblers behind the fix are getting a little nervous after this game and going to a game 9 would probably be completely unacceptable.

Not sure what the consequences would have been had the White Sox accidentally won this series.  Since we’re from the future we know they lose Game 8 and the series.  Tomorrow we’ll cover this final game and then do a series Epilogue after that.  Until then ….

1919 World Series Part 7

The White Sox are down 4-1 so they need to win out in order to beat the Reds.  That’s like being down 3-0 in a 7 game series and winning.  It happens but rarely.  We know now which players are in on the fix but back then it may have been a rumor among the many rumors not  true.  Part of getting away with this is making it look real.  The White Sox don’t have to worry about winning this game.  They can pad their stats.  Let’s look at Game 6 of the 1919 World Series.

CHA CIN 191910070

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHA 36 x X X 3.94 -0.12 -2.34
CIN 52 x X X 0.43 3.53 1.93

They played the last game on 10/6/1919 in Chicago and the above shows they played in Cincinnati the next day on 10/7/1919.  Another 9 hour train trip but maybe it was faster back then before Amtrak took over.

Reds have their best pitcher starting today who must face the almost Tier 4 lineup CHA puts up every day.  Let’s look at L->R combos:

L(away) – S(home)  = 3.94 – 3.53 = 0.41 which rounds down to integer 0

The above says CHA lineup is around equivalent to CIN starter.

L(home) – S(away) = 0.43 – ( -0.12) = 0.55 rounded up to integer 1

The CIN L-> S combo > CHA L-> S combo but not by much.  In this era of baseball we can ignore Relief (R) simplifying things.  The two L->S combo integers would be simulated using  historical results (in this case future results) and a Win% would result.  This hasn’t been done yet.

The above suggests CIN would be favored slightly in this game.  This is the only game of all 8  CIN would be favored according to this data model.  Tier Combo integers can tell you who is favored, simulation can tell you by how much.  Simulation is a work in progress for games before 1970.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Dickey_Kerr_CHA 0.80 0.517 212.3 -0.12
Dutch_Ruether_CIN 6.83 0.627 242.7 3.53

White Sox have their worst pitcher starting, who was not in on the fix, going against Reds best pitcher playing in Cincinnati.  And here’s what happened.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score
CHA 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 5
CIN 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

Cincinnati scored early  as one might expect from this L->S matchup.  Then the White Sox came back to win it in the tenth.

There were two errors committed by Swede Risberg (SS), in on the fix, one resulting in an unearned run scored.  Happy Felsch,  also in on the fix, committed the other error but no runs scored.  Those were the only 3 errors committed by either team today.  White Sox committed three errors yesterday too.

it will be interesting to see who committed the most total errors at the end of this.  I read that one of the eight claimed they committed so many errors because they were nervous about being accused as being part of the fix.  That could have been a true statement but only for this game.  If those in on the fix thought winning was OK today then Risberg and Felsch making errors didn’t help their cause.  Those errors may be needed when they really have to lose.

CHA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
XXXXX 0.06 1 Shano_Collins_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 OF-RF
+017+ 5.17 2 Eddie_Collins_CHA 5 0 1 0 0 0 2B
+020+ 5.00 3 Buck_Weaver_CHA 5 2 0 5 3 0 3B-SS
+010+ 6.57 4 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 5 1 1 1 1 1 OF-LF-RF
+021+ 4.98 5 Happy_Felsch_CHA 5 1 1 3 2 0 CF-OF
+053+ 2.65 6 Chick_Gandil_CHA 5 0 1 1 1 1 1B
XXXXX -0.08 7 Swede_Risberg_CHA 5 1 0 0 0 1 SS-1B
XXXXX 0.42 8 Ray_Schalk_CHA 4 0 1 1 1 2 CR
XXXXX 0.00 9 Dickey_Kerr_CHA 4 0 0 1 1 0 PITCH
XXXXX 0.94 10 Nemo_Leibold_CHA 2 0 0 0 0 1 OF-RF-LF
TOTAL 24.77 X TIER=3.94 43 5 5 12 9 6 X

Buck Weaver had a good day going 3/5 scoring twice.  Shoeless Joe scores and gets an RBI.  Even Dickey Kerr the pitcher gets a hit.  Chick Gandil, the alleged organizer of the fix, scored the game winning RBI driving in Buck Weaver, also in on the fix, in the top of the tenth.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
XXXXX 0.80 Dickey_Kerr_CHA 30 42 3 4 2 SP
TOTAL X X 30 42 3 4 2

Dickey Kerr pitched all 10 innings.

CIN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
-079- -1.51 1 Morrie_Rath_CIN 5 0 0 1 1 0 2B
XXXXX 0.50 2 Jake_Daubert_CIN 5 1 0 2 2 0 1B
+024+ 4.26 3 Heinie_Groh_CIN 5 0 0 2 1 1 3B
+033+ 3.53 4 Edd_Roush_CIN 5 1 0 1 1 1 CF-OF
XXXXX 0.63 5 Pat_Duncan_CIN 5 0 2 2 1 0 LF-OF
XXXXX 0.40 6 Larry_Kopf_CIN 5 0 0 0 0 1 SS
XXXXX -0.15 7 Greasy_Neale_CIN 4 1 0 5 3 0 OF-RF-LF
XXXXX -0.69 8 Bill_Rariden_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 0 CR
XXXXX -0.55 9 Dutch_Ruether_CIN 2 1 1 2 1 0 PITCH
XXXXX -0.88 11 Jimmy_Ring_CIN 2 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
TOTAL 6.42 X TIER=0.43 42 4 3 16 11 3 X

Four runs scored on 11 hits and 3 walks.

CIN Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+008+ 6.83 Dutch_Ruether_CIN 15 23 4 4 0 SP
+038+ 3.25 Jimmy_Ring_CIN 15 20 1 1 2 RP
TOTAL X X 30 43 5 5 2

Jimmy Ring who pitched in game 4 3 days ago pitches in relief after 5 innings and goes  another 5 giving up the run that lost this game for CIN.

So the White Sox make this series 4-2; a best of 5 now with them down 2-0.  If the White Sox wanted to lose this game they could have easily folded after the 5th but they didn’t.  Let’s see what Game 7 looks like tomorrow.  Until then ….

1919 World Series Part 6

The White Sox are down 3-1 in a best of 9 World Series so the 8 in on the fix can breathe easier.  Today we’ll cover game 5 of the 1919 World Series.

Game 4 was played on 10/4/1919 and this game will be played 2 days later on 10/6/1919 which means players got a day of rest.  Since MLB didn’t provide a day of rest for travel  to and from Cincinnati one could probably assume it rained on 10/5/2019.   Players wouldn’t have known ahead of time  about this day off because they didn’t have weather apps on their phones to study.

CIN CHA 191910060

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN 52 x X X 0.62 1.61 1.93
CHA 36 x X X 4.08 1.10 -2.34

Lineup and Relief very similar game to game and R is irrelevant in this series.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hod_Eller_CIN 3.65 0.566 248.3 1.61
Lefty_Williams_CHA 2.81 0.543 297 1.10

Hod Eller is another decent mid tier starter slightly better than Lefty Williams who is in on the fix.   Unfortunately for Eller he must face a Tier 4 lineup that is 2 standard deviations above league average.  Fortunately for Eller, most of that lineup don’t want to score runs.  Let’s see what happens.

The White Sox would be favored again for this game based on L->S matchups but not as much as they were in Game 4.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Score
CIN 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 5
CHA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cincinnati finally score runs in the 6th and they score big.  The Tier 4 CHA lineup couldn’t score a single run against a Tier 1.6 pitcher for the second game in a row at home.  Let’s look deeper into this box score.

CIN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
-079- -1.51 1 Morrie_Rath_CIN 4 1 1 1 1 1 2B
XXXXX 0.50 2 Jake_Daubert_CIN 4 0 0 0 0 0 1B
+024+ 4.26 3 Heinie_Groh_CIN 4 1 0 0 0 1 3B
+033+ 3.53 4 Edd_Roush_CIN 4 2 2 3 1 0 CF-OF
XXXXX 0.63 5 Pat_Duncan_CIN 4 0 1 0 0 1 LF-OF
XXXXX 0.40 6 Larry_Kopf_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 0 SS
XXXXX -0.15 7 Greasy_Neale_CIN 4 0 1 0 0 0 OF-RF-LF
XXXXX -0.69 8 Bill_Rariden_CIN 4 0 0 0 0 0 CR
XXXXX 0.48 9 Hod_Eller_CIN 3 1 0 2 1 0 PITCH
TOTAL 7.45 X TIER=0.62 35 5 5 7 4 3 X

Edd Roush drives in two with a triple and scores himself twice.  He must have gotten on with an error also.

CIN Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+028+ 3.65 Hod_Eller_CIN 27 31 0 0 9 SP
TOTAL X X 27 31 0 0 9

Hod Eller pitches a 3 hit shutout.  Hits and Walks are shown in the Lineup box score to keep things simple.  Eller strikes out 9 in this game which is by far the highest of any pitcher this series.

CHA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
XXXXX 0.94 1 Nemo_Leibold_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 1 OF-RF-LF
+017+ 5.17 2 Eddie_Collins_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 2B
+020+ 5.00 3 Buck_Weaver_CHA 4 0 0 4 2 0 3B-SS
+010+ 6.57 4 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 OF-LF-RF
+021+ 4.98 5 Happy_Felsch_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 CF-OF
+053+ 2.65 6 Chick_Gandil_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 1B
XXXXX -0.08 7 Swede_Risberg_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 SS-1B
XXXXX 0.42 8 Ray_Schalk_CHA 2 0 0 1 1 0 CR
XXXXX -0.17 9 Lefty_Williams_CHA 2 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
XXXXX 0.53 10 Eddie_Murphy_CHA 1 0 0 0 0 0 BAT
XXXXX -0.59 11 Byrd_Lynn_CHA 1 0 0 0 0 0 CR
TOTAL 25.48 X TIER=4.08 31 0 0 5 3 1 X

Note: Red means in on the fix.

Buck Weaver gets 2 hits.  Ray Schaik gets the other hit and Nemo Leibold gets the only walk; both not in on the fix.  Buck Weaver’s first hit, a single, came in the first inning with one out so he had plenty of cover.  His second hit was a Triple in the 9th after the game was lost.

A big part of fixing something millions of people are watching, listening to, and reading about is it has to look real.  This lineup that got CHA to the World Series can’t all just go 0 and out each game and call it a day.  Top of the order guys like Weaver and Jackson had plenty of cover down lineup if they got on base.  It would be more treacherous for Gandil, the purported ring leader of the 8, and Risberg to get on base because the bottom and top of the order were not in on the fix, players who really wanted to drive them home.

Based on WAA there probably wasn’t much expectation for Risberg to hit.  He was chosen because he plays shortstop and 2B  was out.  At the end of all of this we’ll look at how all these players performed overall.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+047+ 2.81 Lefty_Williams_CHA 24 30 4 4 3 SP
-001- -5.82 Erskine_Mayer_CHA 3 5 0 1 0 RP
TOTAL X X 27 35 4 5 3

There were only 4 earned runs out of 5 scored meaning one was unearned.  The unearned run came in the 9th off reliever Erskine Mayer who happens to be ranked #1 in the bottom 100, a list no one wants to be #1.  He’s a big reason CHA had such bad PITCH in team status.   Using schlocks to mop up was the purpose of relief in this era of baseball.

Although the White Sox committed 3 errors in this game, only one unearned run came of them and in the 9th inning when the game was pretty much lost, when even White Sox  manager,  not in on the fix, replaced Williams with the worst player in baseball.  Ironically Eddie Collins,  not in on the fix, committed the error which caused this unearned run.

With CHA down 4-1 in a best of 9 series It’s almost impossible for White Sox not to lose.  They would have to win the next 4 in a row.  If each game were a 50/50 toss up they would have a 1/16 chance.  It goes to 1/8 if we assume White Sox are 60% favorites in each game.  There will be plenty of opportunities not to win in the next four games so the fixers can really relax now.  CHA players can also afford to pad some stats and not worry about winning the next game.

Dickie Kerr, the only White Sox starter not in the fix pitches tomorrow.  He won the only game for CHA this series.  The box score for that game next.  Until then ….