League Championships start tonight with NLDS Game 1 in about 10 minutes.
WAS SLN 10_11_8:08_PM
WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAS | 24 | 0.476 | 0.552 | X | 2.54 | 0.96 | -0.17 |
SLN | 20 | 0.565 | 0.448 | X | -0.04 | 0.31 | 1.95 |
Vegas has Cardinals favored, TC Sim has WAS favored. Vegas was in complete agreement with TC Sim at the start of the day and then moved towards Cardinals. TC Sim does not take home field advantage into account right now. The playoff version of TC Sim is still a work in progress.
Note: According to ELO SLN will be pitching their two best pitchers in Washington. The strategy here could be that home field suppresses hitting so SLN are saving their aces for away games. Something to look into in off season.
Washington has a better lineup, Cardinals better relief, WAA and Starter about the same.
Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
---|---|---|---|---|
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS | 2.60 | 0.571 | 166.0 | 0.96 |
Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 1.49 | 0.536 | 184.0 | 0.31 |
And above are your about the same starters. Sanchez had a extremely tumultuous career and was terrible 2015-2017. He ranked #45 in 2018 and #128 this season. WAR has him ranked #112.
Nationals Lineup
Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
---|---|---|---|---|
XXXXX | 1.47 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 569 |
XXXXX | -0.86 | Adam_Eaton_WAS | RF | 656 |
+005+ | 8.95 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 646 |
+020+ | 6.19 | Juan_Soto_WAS | LF | 659 |
+085+ | 3.42 | Howie_Kendrick_WAS | 1B-2B-3B | 370 |
XXXXX | 0.06 | Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS | 1B | 190 |
XXXXX | -1.13 | Michael_A._Taylor_WAS | CF | 97 |
XXXXX | -0.88 | Yan_Gomes_WAS | CR | 358 |
XXXXX | 0.00 | Anibal_Sanchez_WAS | none | 0 |
Total | 17.22 | TIER=2.54 |
That’s a very good lineup. Not as good as HOU, MIN, or NYA put up but well above one complete standard deviation above league average. BTW: Lineup tier calculation has been fixed. Took one line of code.
Cardinals Lineup
Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
---|---|---|---|---|
XXXXX | -0.69 | Dexter_Fowler_SLN | RF-CF | 574 |
-174- | -1.72 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 549 |
+129+ | 2.58 | Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN | 1B | 682 |
+084+ | 3.42 | Marcell_Ozuna_SLN | LF | 549 |
XXXXX | -1.07 | Yadier_Molina_SLN | CR | 452 |
-158- | -1.81 | Matt_Carpenter_SLN | 3B | 492 |
XXXXX | 0.88 | Tommy_Edman_SLN | 3B-2B-RF | 349 |
XXXXX | 1.07 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 664 |
XXXXX | 0.00 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | none | 0 |
Total | 2.66 | TIER=-0.04 |
That’s pretty much a league average lineup based upon current MLB lineups at end of September. Not much more to say about that. Game starts in 2 minutes.
A complete roster run down and playoff horse race when we get all four playoff roster. Until then ….