Category Archives: Lines

NLDS Game 1

League Championships start tonight with NLDS Game 1 in about 10 minutes.

WAS SLN 10_11_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.476 0.552 X 2.54 0.96 -0.17
SLN 20 0.565 0.448 X -0.04 0.31 1.95

Vegas has Cardinals favored, TC Sim has WAS favored.  Vegas was in complete agreement with TC Sim at the start of the day and then moved towards Cardinals.  TC Sim does not take home field advantage into account right now.  The playoff version of TC Sim is still a work in progress.

Note: According to ELO SLN will be pitching their two best pitchers in Washington.  The strategy here could be that home field suppresses hitting so SLN are saving their aces for away games.  Something to look into in off season.

Washington has a better lineup, Cardinals better relief, WAA and Starter about the same.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 0.96
Miles_Mikolas_SLN 1.49 0.536 184.0 0.31

And above are your about the same starters.  Sanchez had a extremely tumultuous career and was terrible 2015-2017.  He ranked #45 in 2018 and #128 this season.  WAR has him ranked #112.

Nationals Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX -1.13 Michael_A._Taylor_WAS CF 97
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
XXXXX 0.00 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS none 0
Total 17.22 TIER=2.54

That’s a very good lineup.  Not as good as HOU, MIN, or NYA put up but well above one complete standard deviation above league average.  BTW: Lineup tier calculation has been fixed.  Took one line of code.

Cardinals Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
-158- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 492
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Miles_Mikolas_SLN none 0
Total 2.66 TIER=-0.04

That’s pretty much a league average lineup based upon current MLB lineups at end of September.  Not much more to say about that.  Game starts in 2 minutes.

A complete roster run down and playoff horse race when we get all four playoff roster.  Until then ….

ALDS Game 5

Update Post Game:  Astros won this game and play the Yankees in ALCS.  A data flow error has been discovered in Lineup tier calculations for all playoff games this year.  HOU below has a maxed out tier 4.00 lineup at +27 tonight and Ray’s lineup was around -0.5 tier number, not -1.59 shown in below table.

As games completed standard deviations were calculated using past playoff lineups when they should have been using the end of September regular season set of lineups.  The error got worse as more playoff games polluted the  lineup dataset, by raising league averages significantly.  This depressed both home and away L tier numbers.  The resultant simulation % estimation  didn’t change much in the below game however.  League championship  tier numbers will be calculated the way they should.

When this season is  in the books, when retrosheet.org releases event data, all this gets recalculated anyway for the historical dataset.  Right now we’re working off current year data which uses a different set of scripts to keep track of everything.

End of update

ALDS Game 5 tonight.  Washington beat Dodgers last night which makes NLCS interesting.

TBA HOU 10_10_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.294 0.340 X -1.59 1.61 1.72
HOU 52 0.737 0.660 X 2.75 4.00 3.46

Vegas has Houston almost 3-1 favorites, TC Sim almost 2-1.  Lineujp value taken from last game.  HOU usually fields a max 4.00 lineup so that and home field advantage should push things up for them with TC Sim.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 3.74 0.777 60.7 1.61
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00

This model has Cole ranked #2 behind Verlander.  WAR has him ranked #10.  Glasnow has a very high Win Percentage based on only 60 innings pitched.  Tiering is done on raw WAA not rates like Win Percentage.

That’s all for now.  Next up some historical playoff numbers to put these two series into perspective.  Until then ….

NLDS Game 5

We covered rosters and lineups for all teams in these two NLDS Game 5s today so let’s just look at the game tables for today.

WAS LAN 10_09_8:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.392 0.412 105 1.38 2.86 -0.17
LAN 50 0.630 0.588 93 2.29 2.50 3.06

Vegas has Dodgers favored a little more than TC Sim.  ELO has LAN 59% favorites, exactly what TC Sim calculated.  If home field advantage was incorporated TC Sim would move towards the 63% what Vegas predicts.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.86
Walker_Buehler_LAN 5.27 0.630 182.3 2.50

Starters around equal although WAR ranks Strasburg #15 and Buehler #187.

SLN ATL 10_09_5:02_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.512 0.478 93 -1.33 4.00 1.95
ATL 32 0.512 0.522 102 1.22 -0.64 2.42

Vegas is at a don’t know flip a coin for this game.  TC Sim agrees.  According to where Vegas data comes from that line started out around 3-1 in favor of ATL and moved to even steven.  That could be an error in Vegas data source however.  Errors are not exclusive to this log book.  🙂

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL -0.15 0.494 117.0 -0.64

This model has Flaherty ranked #7 in MLB, WAR has him #21.   Both models have Foltynewicz unranked so SLN has a very large advantage in pitching which makes up for their large disadvantage in hitting.

That’s all for now.  Unbelievably Houston has to play a game 5 tomorrow.  With a rotation consisting of 3 starters in  top ten and a top of MLB lineup proves that no one can predict the future — unless you’re from the future.  Houston handicapping tomorrow and then we’re on to ALCS and NLCS.  Until then ….

ALDS Game 4

ALDS game 4 in a few minutes. Let’s look at what this data model thinks.

HOU TBA 10_08_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.706 0.667 94 2.91 4.00 3.46
TBA 30 0.323 0.333 103 -1.40 0.38 1.72

TC Sim has HOU at exactly 2-1 or 2/3 which is exactly where ELO has them tonight as well.  After perusing ELO it appears Nate might be predicting this post season better so far but it’s still early.  We’re also working on leads into how to refine this model for the playoffs and regular season.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00
Diego_Castillo_TBA 1.62 0.606 68.7 0.38

Verlander, the #1 player in MLB, both BAT and PITCH, pitches on short rest.  The only thing TBA has going for them is playing at home and how that affects L, S, and R  for playoffs is still a work in progress.  More on this later when we do post mortem.

Tomorrow there are two NLDS game 5s to cover.  Until then ….

Divisional Series Handicapping

This post will simply handicap the 2 ALDS and NLDS games today.   Handicapping playoff games is still a work in progress.  The model used in TC Simulation is based upon historical regular season games but that’s all we have right now.

The game tables below outline  real team WAA, Lineups, Starter, and Relief, values used in simulation.   The intensity in desire to win is far greater in post season than regular season.  Sometimes teams get beaten down so much in playoffs they just give up, sometimes it makes them try harder.  Sometimes great teams simply choke under pressure (hello 2008 Chicago Cubs).   This is hard, if not impossible to model.

That said, below are handicapping tables for the 4 games today with comments interspersed where necessary.

LAN WAS 10_07_6:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.465 0.578 X 2.00 1.07 3.06
WAS 24 0.556 0.422 X 1.48 3.16 -0.17

Vegas has Washington favored, TC Sim the opposite.  The rest of the numbers show how TC Sim came up with its estimation.  WAS has a starter advantage today and that’s about it.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Rich_Hill_LAN 2.79 0.714 58.7 1.07
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.16

Scherzer is the better starter.  Rich Hill didn’t pitch many innings this season.  Tiering is not done on rates like Win Percentage nor should it.

ATL SLN 10_07_3:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.495 0.553 X 1.43 0.57 2.42
SLN 20 0.528 0.447 X -1.02 2.17 1.95

This is probably where home field advantage kicks in.  Cardinals have better starting pitcher.  Atlanta has better lineup.  Relief around the same.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 1.93 0.577 112.7 0.57
Dakota_Hudson_SLN 4.70 0.621 174.7 2.17

Hudson is Cardinals’ second best starter behind Flaherty.  Keuchel’s career years were 2015 and 2017.  Since we’re from the future we know Keuchel gave up two runs already in first two innings.

NYA MIN 10_07_8:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.592 0.501 X 2.85 -0.07 2.96
MIN 40 0.444 0.499 X 2.96 1.46 3.20

Again, on paper these two teams are equal.  MIN is down 2-0 after getting slaughtered in New York so they might be in giving up get it over with mode.  Vegas has NYA heavily favored almost 3/2 tonight.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Luis_Severino_NYA 0.84 0.815 12.0 -0.07
Jake_Odorizzi_MIN 3.46 0.598 159.0 1.46

With only 12 innings pitched by Severino,  this game would be disqualified for handicapping in regular season.

HOU TBA 10_07_1:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.545 0.639 X 3.21 3.71 3.46
TBA 30 0.476 0.361 X -0.82 3.04 1.72

Since we’re from the future we know TBA is up 9-3 in the 6th.  This is probably an example where home field advantage comes into play for playoffs.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.71
Charlie_Morton_TBA 6.19 0.643 194.7 3.04

Two top shelf pitchers pitching today and it looks like the over won on this game already.  Baseball outcomes can be funny sometimes.  Data like this is also not evaluated by TC Simulation in post season either.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH post season

Grienke had a rough go of it in post season and today he gave up 6 runs in 3 2/3 innings which will sink him even further into the playoff abyss.

That is all for now.  Historical playoff data to compare with the current crop of contenders coming soon.  More handicapping tomorrow.  Until then ….