Cubs start yet another 4 game set with the Expos in Montreal after finishing a 4 game series with them 4 days ago at Wrigley Field  Schedulers haven’t been very creative this season.  Not much will have changed since we covered that series here except the Cubs are now solidly in first place after sweeping the Mets.

Note: The Expos have the WAS franchise tag because they move to Washington to become the Nationals and win a World Series one day.

NL East 19840808

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
CHN	68	45	74.7	-7.5	6.1
NYN	62	48	-42.7	31.5	-11.9
PHI	60	52	26.2	38.5	-29.9
SLN	56	57	-42.7	22.5	5.1
WAS	54	58	-67.3	49.5	12.1
PIT	49	65	-48.3	65.5	5.1

Cubs hitting way up since the beginning of Mets series which will show up in their lineup below.  Expos hitting is declining but pitching pretty good which we’ll also see below.

Tier Combo

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
CHN	23	X	0.554	X	3.38	-1.91	-1.19
WAS	-4	X	0.446	X	-0.64	1.96	-1.43

TC Sim gives Cubs a 55% advantage today.  I would have expected it to be higher but Cubs Lineup is far less than their usual maxed out Tier 4.00 which means they’re probably resting players today.  Expos have a starter advantage today and both relief squads equally under water.

Starters

Rank	WAA	IP	Name	TeamId	Rest	Tier
-061-	-2.06	154.0	Dennis_Eckersley	CHN	5	-1.91
+077+	2.39	81.0	Dan_Schatzeder	WAS	5	1.96

We know from being in the future that Eckersley will have a great end to this season.  Those not from the future wouldn’t know this.  Vegas lines would tell us what people are thinking about both these teams right now but we don’t have that data.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID	Linescore	R	TB	H	E
CHN	000 000 000 0	0	4	4	2
WAS	000 000 000 1	1	7	6	2

Now this is a true pitching duel.  Eckersley pitches a complete 9 innings letting up no runs.   Schatzeder pitches 10 innings letting up no runs and actually gets a W that was truly earned.  Apparently Expos manager didn’t want to let their under water relief staff lose this one — and neither did Frey but he succumbed in the 10th.

CHN Lineup 198408090

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	0.92	Bob_Dernier	CF	428
+012+	4.41	Ryne_Sandberg	2B	512
+040+	3.28	Gary_Matthews	LF	435
+082+	2.33	Keith_Moreland	1B	355
+042+	3.25	Jody_Davis	CR	422
XXXXX	-0.42	Henry_Cotto	RF	119
+039+	3.34	Ron_Cey	3B	399
-023-	-3.00	Larry_Bowa	SS	311
XXXXX	-0.55	Dennis_Eckersley	PR	34
TOTAL	13.56

Leon Durham missing today but he did come in late to pinch hit.  Sandberg must have had a good series with the Mets because he’s almost in top ten of MLB, ranked #12, his highest ranking this season.

WAS Lineup 198408090

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	0.61	Tim_Raines	CF	492
XXXXX	-0.23	Max_Venable	LF	15
+151+	1.34	Andre_Dawson	RF	397
+038+	3.34	Gary_Carter	CR	460
XXXXX	-0.08	Dan_Driessen	1B	284
XXXXX	0.23	Tim_Wallach	3B	445
-021-	-3.04	Doug_Flynn	2B	273
XXXXX	-0.55	Mike_Ramsey	SS	38
XXXXX	-0.27	Dan_Schatzeder	PR	21
TOTAL	1.35

This is a slightly below average lineup based on today’s league average for lineups.

CHN START Roster 19840809

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
-061-	-2.06	Dennis_Eckersley	154.0	0
XXXXX	0.42	Steve_Trout	132.3	1
+155+	1.32	Scott_Sanderson	85.0	2
-096-	-1.58	Rick_Sutcliffe	174.3	2
-117-	-1.43	Dick_Ruthven	84.7	3
TOTAL	-3.33

Sanderson back.  Numbers above are from beginning of today which are what you would know in order to bet this game.  Eckersley will be much higher tomorrow which we’ll see in our next matchup post.4 days from now.

WAS START Roster 19840809

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
+077+	2.39	Dan_Schatzeder	81.0	0
XXXXX	0.25	Bill_Gullickson	149.0	1
+076+	2.42	Bryn_Smith	145.0	2
-009-	-3.63	Steve_Rogers	105.3	2
+020+	3.76	Charlie_Lea	171.7	3
TOTAL	5.19

Three decent starters.  If Expos had half way decent hitting and relief they would be in contention with this starting rotation.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840809

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	0.02	George_Frazier	79.6	0
XXXXX	0.73	Lee_Smith	73.3	1
XXXXX	-0.04	Warren_Brusstar	47.7	1
+143+	1.43	Tim_Stoddard	71.7	1
-028-	-2.79	Rick_Reuschel	81.0	4
TOTAL	-0.65

Frazier gave up the only run in this game today.

WAS RELIEF Roster 19840809

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
+103+	1.93	Jeff_Reardon	61.7	1
XXXXX	-0.57	Bob_James	62.0	2
XXXXX	0.08	Joe_Hesketh	1.0	2
XXXXX	-0.40	Rick_Grapenthin	5.0	2
+134+	1.57	Gary_Lucas	48.3	3
-009-	-3.63	Steve_Rogers	105.3	5
TOTAL	-1.02

Expos have excellent PITCH based upon seasonal run differential but it isn’t because of their relief staff.

That’s all for now.  The 2020 data portal starting with a very rough draft prototype of game day handicapping service almost ready.  This will allow you to keep track of any game this season, in progress or in the past.  More on this later.  Until then ….

Cubs play the Mets once again in another 4 game series at Wrigley Field.  Cubs took 3 out of 4 from the Expos but Mets kept the pace and the two teams still very close in NL East.  Let’s look at these two teams again.

NL East 19840805

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
CHN	64	45	58.2	-5.9	8.5
NYN	62	44	-46.7	46.1	-9.5
PHI	58	50	28.2	31.1	-28.5
SLN	55	55	-36.2	19.1	3.5
WAS	52	56	-61.8	48.1	11.5
PIT	47	64	-43.8	60.1	3.5

Pretty much same with respect to BAT, PITCH, and UR for both Mets and Cubs when these two teams last met at end of July.  Seasonal run differential numbers move at a glacial pace for all teams in a league.

This late in the season roster value can be much different than what seasonal run differential may suggest.

Tier Combo

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
NYN	18	X	0.459	X	-1.60	1.68	3.37
CHN	19	X	0.541	X	4.00	-1.61	-1.76

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 54% advantage today which is exactly home field advantage if you knew nothing about either team playing.  We do, however, know a few things about both teams.

Cubs again with a top of MLB maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup which concurs with their BAT in team status above.  Mets starting a better pitcher today and have much better relief which we’ll see below.  This also concurs with their excellent PITCH in team status.

Pitching kept the Mets at the top of NL East this season, hitting has kept the Cubs on top this year so far.

Starters

Rank	WAA	IP	Name	TeamId	Rest	Tier
+096+	2.06	138.0	Dwight_Gooden	NYN	5	1.68
-095-	-1.68	79.0	Dick_Ruthven	CHN	5	-1.61

Luckily for Ruthven he faces an equally under water Mets lineups.  That matchup is even steven.   Dwight Gooden must face Cubs massive maxed out lineup today.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID	Linescore	R	TB	H	E
NYN	000102000	3	15	9	0
CHN	20401002	9	26	13	1

The Cubs top of MLB lineup tags Gooden for 5 earned runs and they knock him out after 4 innings.  Ruthven gives up 1 earned and 2 unearned runs in 5 2/3 innings.  That 1 error in the E column resulted in 2 runs for the Mets.  On average there are almost exactly 2 errors per unearned run based upon all runs in the history of baseball post 1900.

Dwight Gooden had a bad day today but he finishes this season strong ranked #10 in his first year in MLB.  He has many great years following this one as well.  Next year, in 1985, he’s ranked #1 by this data model and WAR.

NYN Lineup 198408060

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	-0.99	Wally_Backman	2B	348
XXXXX	-0.82	Mookie_Wilson	CF	412
+158+	1.32	Keith_Hernandez	1B	438
+079+	2.29	Darryl_Strawberry	RF	410
XXXXX	1.11	George_Foster	LF	397
XXXXX	-0.69	Hubie_Brooks	3B	407
-081-	-1.83	Mike_Fitzgerald	CR	249
XXXXX	-0.63	Rafael_Santana	SS	67
XXXXX	-0.80	Dwight_Gooden	PR	52
TOTAL	-1.04

CHN Lineup 198408060

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	0.78	Bob_Dernier	CF	413
+020+	3.93	Ryne_Sandberg	2B	493
+035+	3.23	Gary_Matthews	LF	421
+004+	5.04	Leon_Durham	1B	368
+130+	1.64	Keith_Moreland	RF	337
+056+	2.75	Jody_Davis	CR	409
+048+	2.90	Ron_Cey	3B	384
XXXXX	-0.46	Dave_Owen	SS	82
XXXXX	-0.29	Dick_Ruthven	PR	32
TOTAL	19.52

Lineup value keeps rising for Cubs.  Keith Moreland makes it into top 160 for first time this season.

The above are values at the start of today; what you would know sitting in the grandstands at Wrigley waiting for this game to start.

NYN START Roster 19840806

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
+096+	2.06	Dwight_Gooden	138.0	0
+152+	1.39	Sid_Fernandes	34.3	1
-024-	-2.79	Bruce_Berenyi	111.7	2
+046+	2.92	Walt_Terrell	145.3	3
+124+	1.72	Ron_Darling	141.3	4
TOTAL	5.30

An above average staff.  Individual starters are tiered per game for simulation so the staff totals above are for informational purposes and used as a column in horse race tables to determine total team roster value.

CHN START Roster 19840806

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
-095-	-1.68	Dick_Ruthven	79.0	0
+160+	1.28	Rich_Bordi	72.0	1
-070-	-1.93	Dennis_Eckersley	154.0	2
XXXXX	0.76	Steve_Trout	126.0	3
XXXXX	-0.92	Rick_Sutcliffe	167.6	4
TOTAL	-2.49

Not much different than from last time but Steve Trout is back.  Eckersley will be much higher next time we see him (just a hunch 🙂

NYN RELIEF Roster 19840806

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
+132+	1.60	Brent_Gaff	43.7	0
+047+	2.90	Doug_Sisk	65.3	0
XXXXX	0.38	Wes_Gardner	4.3	1
+088+	2.16	Jesse_Orosco	61.7	2
XXXXX	-0.10	Tom_Gorman	41.0	2
TOTAL	6.94

This is a very good relief staff.  At Tier 3.37 they are over 1 1/2 standard deviations above league average for team relief.  Relief wasn’t the problem in this game even though the Cubs tagged them for 3 runs.  Cubs got all the runs they needed to win from Gooden.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840806

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	-0.06	Warren_Brusstar	44.7	0
+126+	1.68	Tim_Stoddard	67.0	0
-026-	-2.77	Rick_Reuschel	81.0	1
XXXXX	0.46	Lee_Smith	70.0	1
XXXXX	-0.19	George_Frazier	77.3	2
TOTAL	-0.88

Cubs relief is under water again because Rick Reuschel has returned. Reuschel had a great career but 1984 wasn’t a very good year for him as he finishes ranked #55 in the bottom 160, a list no one wants to be #1.

From our position in the future we know Cubs sweep this series to take a commanding 4 1/2 ( 9 WAA ) game lead over Mets in first place when they start yet another weekend series with the Expos on 8/9.

That is all for now.  Some 2020 season coverage of how TC simulation is working using historical data coming next.  Until then ….

After winning 2 out of 3 from Phillies and Mets losing 3 in a row Cubs have slid into first place at the beginning of August, the beginning of the final third of any baseball season.  Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Expos so let’s take a look at these two teams to get an idea what the next 4 days will bring.

NL East 19840801

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
CHN	61	44	57.1	-8.2	8.0
NYN	59	43	-47.3	41.8	-9.0
PHI	56	48	28.6	28.8	-29.0
SLN	53	53	-33.3	19.8	2.0
WAS	51	53	-59.4	49.8	11.0
PIT	46	61	-39.4	59.8	4.0

Here are the NL East standings at end of day yesterday which would be what your read in the newspaper when waiting for this game to start in the grandstands at Wrigley Field.

Expos (WAS) have terrible BAT and very good PITCH which we’ll see why as we dig down further into this team. The Montreal Expos will one day become the Washington Nationals which is why they are listed under the WAS franchise tag.

Tier Combo

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
WAS	-2	X	0.364	X	-0.36	2.58	-3.12
CHN	17	X	0.636	X	4.00	-1.12	-0.85

Tiers represent how far above or below current league averages for today’s {L}ineups, (S}tarter, and {R}elief.  Lineups get matched with opposing team Starter and Relief and entered into a simulation which runs one million iterations of this game drawing from similar historical data.

Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs an almost 64% advantage today.  If Vegas lines were below 64% Cubs would be a betting opportunity.  If above Expos’ 36% they would be a betting opportunity.  The Expected Value (EV) column calculates how good of a bet it is if you assume the probability generated from TC simulation is correct.  We don’t have data for how Vegas handicapped this game.

Cubs are way ahead in win/loss column (WAA), have a maxed out tier 4.00 lineup today which is 2 complete standard deviations above current league average for team lineups.  Expos have a better starter but much worse relief.

Starters

Rank	WAA	IP	Name	TeamId	Rest	Tier
+039+	3.13	133.0	Bryn_Smith	WAS	5	2.58
XXXXX	-1.16	159.3	Rick_Sutcliffe	CHN	5	-1.12

Sutcliffe is under water from a terrible start to this season at Cleveland.   Cubs are reaping all the benefit from his rise.  Simulation does not give out mulligans nor does it know the future.  Since we’re from the future we know Sutcliffe wins a Cy Young award this season and for good reasons.  Right now, with what we know today, Expos have a starter advantage.

Line Scores

TeamID	Linescore	R	TB	H	E
WAS	000020000	2	17	8	0
CHN	00010110	3	11	6	0

And this becomes somewhat of a pitchers duel. here.  Sutcliffe pitches 8 1/3 allowing only 2 earned runs so his numbers will go up again tomorrow. Smith pitches all 8 innings, all 3 runs earned.

WAS Lineup 198408020

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	1.07	Tim_Raines	CF	460
XXXXX	-0.13	Max_Venable	LF	5
+154+	1.32	Andre_Dawson	RF	368
+032+	3.30	Gary_Carter	CR	428
XXXXX	-0.13	Dan_Driessen	1B	263
XXXXX	0.36	Tim_Wallach	3B	414
XXXXX	-0.21	Derrell_Thomas	SS	163
-026-	-2.75	Doug_Flynn	2B	245
XXXXX	-0.50	Bryn_Smith	PR	49
TOTAL	2.33

Although WAS has an above 0 Total, this late in the season that is more than 1/2 standard deviation below league average.

CHN Lineup 198408020

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	-0.65	Henry_Cotto	CF	95
+015+	4.20	Ryne_Sandberg	2B	476
+031+	3.36	Gary_Matthews	LF	405
+006+	4.75	Leon_Durham	1B	352
XXXXX	0.92	Keith_Moreland	RF	321
+064+	2.58	Jody_Davis	CR	398
+054+	2.77	Ron_Cey	3B	370
-020-	-2.98	Larry_Bowa	SS	303
XXXXX	-0.50	Rick_Sutcliffe	PR	27
TOTAL	14.45

This is very similar to all the other CHN lineups shown here before.

WAS START Roster 19840802

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
+039+	3.13	Bryn_Smith	133.0	0
+018+	3.99	Charlie_Lea	163.7	1
-007-	-4.20	Steve_Rogers	96.0	2
+055+	2.75	Dan_Schatzeder	77.3	3
XXXXX	0.00	Bill_Gullickson	135.7	4
TOTAL	5.67

Three excellent starters and one not so good.

CHN START Roster 19840802

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	-1.14	Rick_Sutcliffe	159.3	0
-090-	-1.66	Dick_Ruthven	79.0	1
+125+	1.57	Rich_Bordi	68.0	2
-042-	-2.29	Dennis_Eckersley	147.4	3
XXXXX	1.05	Scott_Sanderson	81.0	4
TOTAL	-2.47

For some reason Steve Trout is missing as well as Rick Reuschel.

WAS RELIEF Roster 19840802

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	1.07	Gary_Lucas	42.3	1
+157+	1.28	Jeff_Reardon	54.0	2
XXXXX	-0.17	Bob_James	59.0	3
-007-	-4.20	Steve_Rogers	96.0	4
TOTAL	-2.02

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840802

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	0.25	Lee_Smith	67.3	0
XXXXX	-0.34	George_Frazier	75.0	1
XXXXX	-0.23	Warren_Brusstar	42.7	2
+115+	1.74	Tim_Stoddard	65.0	2
TOTAL	1.42

A very slightly above average relief squad based on seasonal numbers but almost 1/2 standard deviation below current league average for team relief.

That’s all for now.  Cubs take 3 out of 4 in this series and will host the Mets on August 6 which we’ll cover.

More coverage of the year 2020 season coming.  The simulator is up and running well.  Handicapping early games using 3 year historical data looks unexpectedly good.  A very rough prototype portal into all data in this model is very close to a beginning.  More to come soon.  Until then ….

It’s back to the future when the Cubs play Pirates again after beating them yesterday even after another relief meltdown. In a normal season July and August are in the wheelhouse for this data model with regards to handicapping. These 2 months are like the boring parts of an Indy 500 or golf tournament. Contestants pace themselves and there is enough data to discern the great from the good from the mediocres from the not so good from the ones bringing up the rear. This is true for team records as well as players. This model beats Vegas the most in July and August.

April and May there is a general lack of data where both teams and players are bunched together making it difficult to discern. In September expanded rosters cause teams way ahead and way behind to work the new guys and not care so much about winning. This model is still ahead of Vegas in September but not as much.

In this bizarre pandemic season we’re a little over a week into it which is like the second week of April in a normal season. We don’t even start compiling a league until after two weeks data are in the books.

By the time we can reliably rank players the season will be half over this year and 3/4 over when handicap can begin so this presents a problem. Somehow Vegas handicaps from day one and the only way that can be done is by relying on historical data.

It has been decided, rather arbitrarily, to use three year split data for players to compile league rosters and lineups and enter them into the simulator. Today we’ll cover this game as if it were a normal mid season game with a full dataset to work from.

Forget the standings for now let’s get to the handicapping.

PIT CHN 08_01_8:15_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
PIT	-33	0.377	0.330	87	-1.44	-1.69	-3.96
CHN	55	0.643	0.670	104	1.89	-1.63	1.40

Cubs won 55 games more than they lost in 2017.2018, and 2019.  Pittsburgh lost 33 more than they won during that period.  Vegas giving Cubs a 64.3% chance of winning today and TC Sim has them higher at 67% which translates into an Expected Value on a 100 unit bet to be 104 which isn’t enough so this game is a discard.

Cubs have a much better lineup, both Starters not so good as we’ll see below, and PIT relief is almost maxed out -4.00 in the wrong direction.  Cubs relief above average.  All of this is based on 3 year data which means Craig Kimbrel is their best reliever. 🙂

Starters

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Mitch_Keller_PIT	-2.92	0.226	48.0	-1.69
Tyler_Chatwood_TOT	-2.75	0.462	328.1	-1.63

Mitch Keller is new to MLB and came up from minors last season and didn’t pitch so well.  He pitched very well in AAA last season however.   Normally new starters coming in mid season cause the entire game to be discarded.  At 48 IP over 3 years means Mitch Keller is close to being an unknown quantity right now.

PIT Lineup

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
XXXXX	-1.55	Adam_Frazier_PIT	LF-2B-RF	1414
XXXXX	-1.60	Kevin_Newman_PIT	SS-2B	628
+072+	8.00	Josh_Bell_PIT	1B	1816
XXXXX	0.48	Colin_Moran_PIT	BAT-3B-2B	980
XXXXX	1.76	Bryan_Reynolds_PIT	LF-RF-CF	546
XXXXX	0.65	Gregory_Polanco_PIT	RF-LF	1113
XXXXX	-0.76	Phillip_Evans_PIT	BAT	61
-121-	-3.97	Jarrod_Dyson_PIT	CF-LF-RF	1079
XXXXX	-1.01	John_Ryan_Murphy_PIT	BAT-CR	300
Total	2.00	TIER=-1.44

Josh Bell had a breakout season last year ranked #19 in MLB according to this data model.

CHN Lineup

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+094+	6.97	Kris_Bryant_CHN	3B-RF-LF	1756
+040+	11.09	Anthony_Rizzo_CHN	1B-2B	1969
+025+	14.26	Javier_Baez_CHN	2B-SS-3B	1714
+149+	5.00	Kyle_Schwarber_CHN	LF	1606
XXXXX	2.90	Willson_Contreras_CHN	CR	1381
XXXXX	1.66	Jason_Heyward_CHN	RF-CF	1559
XXXXX	1.03	Nico_Hoerner_CHN	SS	82
+150+	4.98	Ian_Happ_CHN	CF-2B-LF-RF-3B	1031
XXXXX	-1.43	Victor_Caratini_CHN	CR-1B	545
Total	46.46	TIER=1.89

Cubs still have a lot of good players which is why they’re hitting so well this season so far.  Rank is for all MLB players who made an appearance any time during last 3 seasons.  Cubs have 5 players ranked, 3 in the top 100 in this lineup which is very good.  Tier 1.89 means they’re almost a complete standard deviation above league average for lineups as of today.   Perhaps in a future post we’ll cover top MLB lineups.

That is all for now.  The 1984 Cubs start a new series with the Expos tomorrow.  Until then ….

Today the Cubs start a 3 game series with the Phillies in Chicago after taking 3 out of 4 from Mets in New York over the weekend. Let’s look at this matchup on this day.

NL East 19840729

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
NYN	59	40	-41.5	49.5	-8.9
CHN	59	43	59.8	-12.5	8.1
PHI	55	46	32.8	26.5	-29.9
WAS	50	51	-53.7	48.5	10.1
SLN	50	53	-40.5	14.5	1.1
PIT	44	60	-37.7	54.5	3.1

Phillies 3 1/2 games behind Cubs ( 7 WAA ) so this series is important for them.  Cubs gaining on the Mets so they need to keep winning too.  BAT, PITCH, and UR all about the same as the last time these two teams played a week ago. 

Tier Combo

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
PHI	9	X	0.428	X	2.21	-2.56	2.13
CHN	16	X	0.572	X	4.00	-2.76	0.79

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 57.2 % chance of winning today.  Both starters are equally under water so this game could be considered whatever they call the opposite of a pitching duel.  Both lineups well above current league average for lineups with Cubs once again maxed out, top of MLB.

Starters

Rank	WAA	IP	Name	TeamId	Rest	Tier
-038-	-2.48	115.3	Charles_Hudson	PHI	5	-2.56
-025-	-2.69	140.3	Dennis_Eckersley	CHN	5	-2.76

Dennis Eckersley starts a tremendous run with this game.  In the next two months he will add +4 WAA which is a top of MLB rate.  Unfortunately like golf, this data model does not grant mulligans.

Line Scores

TeamID	Linescore	R	TB	H	E
PHI	100000010	2	16	10	0
CHN	10000110	3	11	8	1

Eckersley gives up 1 run in 7 innings and Cubs’ relief gives up the other run.  Cubs tier 4.00 lineup only scores 3 runs which is below average but enough to win this game which is all that matters in baseball.

PHI Lineup 198407300

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
+126+	1.55	Juan_Samuel	2B	465
+148+	1.32	Von_Hayes	CF	344
+013+	4.24	Mike_Schmidt	3B	415
+135+	1.43	Sixto_Lezcano	RF	213
+154+	1.28	Len_Matuszek	1B	191
+086+	2.08	Ozzie_Virgil	CR	315
XXXXX	-0.94	Glenn_Wilson	LF	291
-071-	-1.85	Ivan_DeJesus	SS	354
XXXXX	-0.32	Charles_Hudson	PR	42
TOTAL	8.79

CHN Lineup 198407300

Rank	WAA	Name	Pos	PA
XXXXX	-0.53	Henry_Cotto	CF	80
+016+	4.16	Ryne_Sandberg	2B	462
+026+	3.51	Gary_Matthews	LF	393
+003+	4.85	Leon_Durham	1B	342
XXXXX	0.92	Keith_Moreland	RF	311
+053+	2.65	Jody_Davis	CR	384
+064+	2.52	Ron_Cey	3B	357
-023-	-2.73	Larry_Bowa	SS	291
XXXXX	-0.44	Dennis_Eckersley	PR	29
TOTAL	14.91

Sandberg and Durham rising in the ranks.  Durham must have had a very productive series with the Mets as he is now ranked #3 in MLB.

PHI START Roster 19840730

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
-038-	-2.48	Charles_Hudson	115.3	0
+038+	3.19	Jerry_Koosman	144.0	1
-037-	-2.49	Shane_Rawley	79.0	2
+066+	2.39	Steve_Carlton	156.3	3
XXXXX	-0.65	Kevin_Gross	90.7	9
TOTAL	-0.04

Two very good starters and two very bad starters.  Phillies must have been on a 4 pitcher rotation.  Kevin Gross pitched in relief today and will fall off this list tomorrow.

CHN START Roster 19840730

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
-025-	-2.67	Dennis_Eckersley	140.4	0
XXXXX	1.07	Scott_Sanderson	81.0	1
+150+	1.30	Steve_Trout	121.7	1
XXXXX	-1.14	Rick_Sutcliffe	159.3	2
-094-	-1.60	Dick_Ruthven	72.3	3
TOTAL	-3.04

Cubs starting rotation getting better which is hard to see from a static snapshot like this.

PHI RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	-0.65	Kevin_Gross	90.7	0
+046+	2.96	Larry_Andersen	57.7	1
+080+	2.14	Al_Holland	74.7	2
XXXXX	-0.17	Don_Carman	5.3	5
XXXXX	0.53	Bill_Campbell	61.0	5
TOTAL	4.81

This is a Tier 2+ relief squad or a little more than one standard deviation above current league average for team relief.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank	WAA	Name	IP	Rest
XXXXX	0.10	Lee_Smith	65.3	0
+092+	1.99	Tim_Stoddard	63.0	0
XXXXX	-0.59	George_Frazier	72.3	2
XXXXX	1.01	Rich_Bordi	59.0	5
TOTAL	2.51

Reuschel must be hurt because he disappeared from both relief and start rosters.  With Reuschel gone Cubs relief rises to above average.

Cubs lose tomorrow and win the next day taking 2 out of 3 from Phillies. Mets lose 3 in a row and by the start of the next series with Expos Cubs will be first in NL East by a very slim margin.  A 4 game series with Expo starts Thursday August 2 which we’ll cover with another matchup post.  Until then ….