Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs Pirates meet once again.  Let’s look at these Pirates.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 50 70 -17.3 -50.9 -19.8 20190816
PIT 65 82 -6.9 -71.8 -21.4 20190913

Pirates went from -20 to -17 gaining 3 games in the last 4 weeks which is pretty good.  Their PITCH however tanked further which was compensated by an increase in BAT.   Unearned runs above average (UR) is horrible. Cubs may get some free runs this series.

PIT CHN 09_13_4:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PIT -17 0.357 0.423 X -0.03 0.09 1.58
CHN 10 0.667 0.577 X 0.43 -0.45 1.99

TC Sim has the Pirates rated much higher than Vegas today even though both systems have Cubs heavily favored.  Vegas is paying $180 on a $100 PIT bet.  L, S, and R columns are all fairly equal.  Cubs have a big advantage in deltaWAA=27 , the difference in WAA between the two teams.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Steven_Brault_PIT 0.92 0.541 100.3 0.09
Jon_Lester_CHN 0.13 0.504 155.7 -0.45

Lester has had some bad outings this season.  Both pitchers hovering around league average.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.92 Steven_Brault_PIT 100.3
XXXXX 0.10 James_Marvel_PIT 5.0
XXXXX 0.02 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 159.3
XXXXX -0.57 Dario_Agrazal_PIT 62.3
-106- -2.10 Trevor_Williams_PIT 131.3
-033- -3.34 Mitch_Keller_PIT 38.0
Total -4.97 0.455

Pirates running with 6 starters in expanded rosters.  This is a pretty terrible rotation which shouldn’t surprise based on PITCH in their team status.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+053+ 4.03 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 60.0
XXXXX 1.72 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 66.0
XXXXX 1.24 Keone_Kela_PIT 25.7
XXXXX 1.09 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT 60.0
XXXXX 1.05 Michael_Feliz_PIT 51.7
XXXXX 0.99 Wei-Chung_Wang_PIT 29.7
XXXXX -0.40 Yacksel_Rios_PIT 8.0
XXXXX -0.50 Kyle_Crick_PIT 49.0
XXXXX -0.92 Yefry_Ramirez_PIT 19.0
XXXXX -1.20 Clay_Holmes_PIT 44.3
-140- -1.85 Alex_McRae_PIT 20.3
-098- -2.14 Parker_Markel_PIT 15.3
-057- -2.79 Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT 29.3
Total 0.32 TIER=1.58

At tier 1.58 this staff is well above average which contradicts PITCH in team status.  This is because they have several well above average relievers and with expanded rosters their below average players don’t drag the staff down.

PIT Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.59 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 466
+133+ 2.37 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF-CF 506
XXXXX -0.53 Melky_Cabrera_PIT RF-LF 374
+015+ 6.30 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 610
XXXXX 1.22 Jose_Osuna_PIT RF-1B-3B 221
XXXXX -0.34 Pablo_Reyes_PIT RF-LF 111
-158- -1.74 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 552
-110- -2.08 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 304
XXXXX 0.00 Steven_Brault_PIT none 0
Total 4.61 TIER=-0.03

This is almost a league average lineup exactly which agrees with BAT in team status.

That is all for now.  One more regular season playoff horse race until the actual playoffs coming in a few days.  Until then ….

Cubs Padres Matchup

Cubs Padres start a series today.  Let’s look at this Padres team.

SDN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SDN 55 62 -38.7 2.1 3.7 20190812
SDN 66 76 -76.3 9.8 3.3 20190909

In the last 4 weeks BAT tanked even further and Padres went from -7 to -10.  Losing 3 games a month is par for the course for last place teams.  That Manny Machado acquisition hasn’t helped their hitting.

CHN SDN 09_09_10:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.583 0.608 104 -0.25 2.32 2.16
SDN -10 0.435 0.392 90 -1.90 -0.52 2.39

Cubs lead in lineup and starter and about tied with relief.  Vegas and TC Sim are pretty much in agreement on this game.  Vegas has the Cubs 58% , TC Sim at around 61% favorites to win.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 4.22 0.623 154.0 2.32
Cal_Quantrill_SDN 0.06 0.503 90.7 -0.52

Hendricks a top notch pitcher but well below max tier of 4.00.

SDN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+085+ 3.15 Chris_Paddack_SDN 129.7
+114+ 2.60 Joey_Lucchesi_SDN 150.0
XXXXX 0.84 Dinelson_Lamet_SDN 57.0
XXXXX 0.55 Eric_Lauer_SDN 136.7
XXXXX 0.04 Cal_Quantrill_SDN 90.7
Total 7.18 0.557

San Diego has a decent starting rotation which is unusual based on past years for them.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+044+ 4.49 Kirby_Yates_SDN 57.7
+181+ 1.89 Craig_Stammen_SDN 74.7
+200+ 1.70 Luis_Perdomo_SDN 63.0
XXXXX 1.43 Andres_Munoz_SDN 21.3
XXXXX 0.84 Michel_Baez_SDN 19.7
XXXXX 0.36 David_Bednar_SDN 3.3
XXXXX 0.23 Ronald_Bolanos_SDN 6.0
XXXXX -0.32 Eric_Yardley_SDN 3.0
XXXXX -0.50 Trey_Wingenter_SDN 46.3
XXXXX -0.53 Matt_Strahm_SDN 107.0
XXXXX -0.76 Javy_Guerra_SDN 0.7
XXXXX -0.78 Robbie_Erlin_SDN 49.7
-070- -2.50 Gerardo_Reyes_SDN 16.0
-068- -2.52 Nick_Margevicius_SDN 55.0
Total 3.03 TIER=2.39

Their tier number for relief is high because, for now, this model only takes the top 8 relievers.  This raises relief league average due to expanded rosters.  New guys come in at 0 pushing down negative relievers.  Right now league average for relief is at +5.8.  At the end of August it was around +3.6.  They have three relievers ranked with Kirby Yates in the top 50.

SDN Lineup 9/8/1019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.46 Greg_Garcia_SDN 2B-3B 304
XXXXX -0.34 Nick_Martini_SDN BAT 36
XXXXX -0.04 Manny_Machado_SDN 3B-SS 583
XXXXX 0.82 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 586
XXXXX -1.24 Wil_Myers_SDN LF-CF 418
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_Naylor_SDN LF-RF 219
-074- -2.27 Austin_Hedges_SDN CR 305
XXXXX -1.05 Luis_Urias_SDN 2B-SS 167
XXXXX 0.00 Eric_Lauer_SDN none 0
Total -4.94 TIER=-1.90

We don’t have to worry much about expanded rosters with lineups because they are what they are.  SDN has close to a -2 tier lineup (their lineup from yesterday), almost a complete standard deviation below league average.  This should be expected from their well below average BAT in team status based on seasonal runs scored.

That is all for now.  A new Cubs status coming soon as they move sideways into the end of a season.  Sideways is better than tanking but it usually does not get a team into playoff season.  Until then ….

Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs Brewers start a weekend series today.  Let’s see what the Brewers have been up to since 4 weeks ago when the Cubs last played them.

MIL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIL 57 53 9.3 -30.1 5.8 20190802
MIL 68 65 -13.6 -27.3 5.2 20190830

Brewers went from +4 to +3 losing a game.  BAT tanked and PITCH remained around the same as well as Unearned Runs above average (UR).

MIL CHN 08_30_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIL 3 0.444 0.449 101 -0.71 -0.32 -0.75
CHN 11 0.574 0.551 96 -0.24 0.61 1.41

Cubs have better real team WAA, around the same under water lineup, betters starter and much better relief.  Tier numbers in L, S, and R columns get fed into simulation and the result aligns closely with Vegas.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.42 0.517 112.0 -0.32
Jose_Quintana_CHN 1.70 0.552 146.7 0.61

Quintana is a better starter than Anderson this season.

MIL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+155+ 1.99 Adrian_Houser_MIL 87.0
+166+ 1.87 Zach_Davies_MIL 131.7
XXXXX 0.42 Chase_Anderson_MIL 112.0
XXXXX 0.25 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 64.3
XXXXX -0.08 Jordan_Lyles_MIL 114.7
Total 4.45 0.539

This is a slightly above average starting rotation.  Starting rotations are not tiered.  Individual starters are tiered for use in simulation.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.29 Josh_Hader_MIL 59.7
XXXXX 1.36 Junior_Guerra_MIL 71.0
XXXXX 0.78 Alex_Claudio_MIL 53.3
XXXXX 0.08 Ray_Black_MIL 6.7
XXXXX 0 Devin_Williams 8.0
XXXXX -0.27 Jay_Jackson_MIL 19.3
XXXXX -0.32 Matt_Albers_MIL 55.0
-158- -1.70 Drew_Pomeranz_MIL 90.0
Total 2.22 TIER=-0.75

This is an under water relief staff.  Hader ranked in top 200 and ranked top 100 for much of this season.

MIL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-049- -2.75 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 536
+197+ 1.64 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 292
+020+ 5.33 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 532
XXXXX 0.80 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 435
XXXXX -0.53 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR-1B 511
XXXXX -0.88 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 153
XXXXX -1.05 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-SS 188
-136- -1.81 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 458
XXXXX 0.00 Chase_Anderson_MIL none 0
Total 0.75 TIER=-0.71

This is a below average lineup based on league averages using current rosters.  Yelich having another stellar year.  Last season he gained +3.5 WAA in September to win MVP.

That is all for now.  End of month 5 Cubs status and playoff horse race coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Mets Matchup

Cubs Mets start another series tonight in New York.  Let’s see what the Mets have been up to since the Cubs last saw them 9 weeks ago.

NYN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYN 37 42 6.8 -29.1 -4.3 20190625
NYN 67 63 -9.3 24.3 6.0 20190827

Nine weeks ago Mets were -5 and today they’re +4 gaining 9 games or almost 1 game per week.  A six month baseball season has 24 weeks.  A team winning +1 per week ends the season +24 or 94 – 68.  If Mets keep this pace the next 5 weeks they’ll end this season at +8 or +10 ( a season can’t end on an odd real team WAA ).

During these 9 weeks Mets BAT went down a little but their PITCH soared as well as their UR.  Mets are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot and right behind the Cubs.  Teams that want to make it past the first round of playoffs usually excel in September.

CHN NYN 08_27_7:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 8 0.524 0.482 92 -0.31 -0.33 1.23
NYN 4 0.500 0.518 104 0.37 2.58 -1.98

Mets have a very good starter pitching tonight and a slightly better lineup based on each team’s last game.  Cubs have better relief.  Cubs lineup last game was slightly under water.  Mets’ was slightly above water.

At 0.524/0.500 in favor of Cubs, Vegas is taking a we don’t know attitude to this game.  TC Sim based on tier numbers from L, S, and R columns  has this game close to even steven as well.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.44 0.514 144.3 -0.33
Marcus_Stroman_TOT 4.43 0.638 144.3 2.58

Darvish had his ups and downs  but still above water.  Stroman is pitching like his 2017 season.

NYN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 7.37 Jacob_deGrom_NYN 162.0
+039+ 4.43 Marcus_Stroman_NYN 144.3
+081+ 2.96 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN 160.0
XXXXX 1.36 Steven_Matz_NYN 128.7
XXXXX 0.17 Zack_Wheeler_NYN 155.3
Total 16.29 0.598

Three starters in top 100.  This is a pitching staff that could breeze through NLDS — except they’ll probably have to face the Dodgers if it comes to that.

NYN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+150+ 2.02 Seth_Lugo_NYN 63.0
XXXXX 1.51 Justin_Wilson_NYN 28.3
XXXXX 0.42 Paul_Sewald_NYN 12.0
XXXXX 0.15 Luis_Avilan_NYN 25.3
XXXXX -0.13 Chris_Mazza_NYN 8.7
XXXXX -1.18 Edwin_Diaz_NYN 48.7
-169- -1.57 Jeurys_Familia_NYN 45.0
-123- -1.87 Brad_Brach_NYN 45.7
Total -0.65 TIER=-1.98

This is an under water relief staff which contradicts PITCH in team status.  The excellent starting rotation above compensates.  At 63 IP Seth Lugo  has put in the most work this season and he’s well above water ranked in top 200.  Justin Wilson, former Cub pitching well also.  Cubs need to knock a starter out in 6th inning or go extra innings to get deep into this staff.  Looks like Mets acquired Brad Brach.  Let’s see how he’s been pitching since being traded.

Brad_Brach_TOT PITCH

Date Rank WAA
0813 -174- -1.45
0817 -138- -1.62
0821 -171- -1.49
0825 -123- -1.87
0827 -123- -1.87

Brach went -0.42 with the Mets so far.

NYN Lineup 08252019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.11 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 525
XXXXX 1.39 Jeff_McNeil_NYN LF-RF-2B-3B 444
+040+ 4.49 Pete_Alonso_NYN 1B 548
+160+ 2.08 Michael_Conforto_NYN RF-CF 515
XXXXX 0.29 J.D._Davis_NYN LF-3B 352
XXXXX -0.29 Todd_Frazier_NYN 3B 403
XXXXX -0.82 Juan_Lagares_NYN CF 232
XXXXX 0.00 Rene_Rivera_NYN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Steven_Matz_NYN none 0
Total 6.03 TIER=0.37

As expected based on their close to average BAT in team status, this is a close to average lineup.  Average team lineup based on current rosters of 30 MLB teams is now +4.36 WAA.

Cubs are up on the Mets in Wild Card and behind the Cardinals in NL Central.  If Mets sweep this series they will overtake Cubs in Wild Card race too.

Not much more to say about this.  Historical playoff handicapping based upon estimated rosters coming soon.  Next Cubs status coming near the end of month 5 of this 2019 MLB season.   Until then ….

Cubs Nationals Matchup

Cubs Nationals play again this weekend at Wrigley.  Cubs got shellacked yesterday.  Let’s take a look at this Nationals team.

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 55 48 6.6 28.9 8.4 20190727
WAS 71 57 52.9 29.3 15.1 20190824

In the last 4 weeks WAS went 16-9 gaining 7 games which is a very good run.  These wins are almost entirely due to hitting as their BAT soared.  UR also way up.  It will be difficult for them to overtake Atlanta but these things have happened before to teams in September.  Let’s look at what tonight’s game looks like.

WAS CHN 08_24_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 14 0.417 0.501 X 1.89 -1.38 -2.82
CHN 10 0.600 0.499 X 0.29 0.97 1.25

Vegas has Cubs favored by almost 60% according to Vegas and Tier Combo simulation has this game almost even steven.  EV is still turned off for now.   WAS has a much better lineup than Cubs which we saw evidence with BAT in their team status.  Cubs have better pitching and surprisingly better relief.  WAS has better WAA (i.e. win/loss record).

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Joe_Ross_WAS -0.97 0.406 46.0 -1.38
Jose_Quintana_CHN 2.21 0.570 142.7 0.97

Quintana is a better pitcher than Ross this season.  If the Cubs knock out Ross early and get into WAS poor relief this game could get interesting.

WAS Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+022+ 5.23 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 161.7
+063+ 3.49 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 165.0
+120+ 2.29 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 130.0
XXXXX 0.42 Erick_Fedde_WAS 71.0
XXXXX -0.99 Joe_Ross_WAS 46.0
Total 10.44 0.582

Three top starters which can easily get a team through a 6 game divisional series.  Ross is their worst starter.  Strasburg or Corbin will most likely pitch a wild card game if it comes to that.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.21 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 57.3
XXXXX 0.48 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 12.3
XXXXX 0.34 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 32.7
XXXXX -0.21 Javy_Guerra_WAS 55.7
XXXXX -0.42 Wander_Suero_WAS 55.3
XXXXX -1.03 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 32.0
-117- -1.95 Matt_Grace_WAS 46.7
-102- -2.08 Kyle_McGowin_WAS 16.0
Total -2.66 TIER=-2.82

Relief is WAS Achilles heel as it was in past seasons.  Although we max out at +4 and -4 now,  an almost -3 tier number is 1.5 standard deviations below league average based on current team rosters.  This is around bottom of MLB.  Whether it’s at the bottom or third from the bottom doesn’t matter.  This relief staff is bad.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.78 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 417
XXXXX -0.67 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 550
+005+ 7.27 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 503
+040+ 4.35 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 519
+081+ 2.88 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 295
XXXXX -1.22 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 429
XXXXX 0.84 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 488
XXXXX -1.28 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 269
XXXXX 0.00 Joe_Ross_WAS none 0
Total 12.95 TIER=1.73

Three guys in the top 100 and almost Tier 2.00 lineup.  Tier 2 is one complete standard deviation above league average based on current team rosters.

Game starts in a few hours.  Almost have a complete historical roster dataset complete which will allow handicapping of past playoff games.  Handicapping old playoff series might be fun as we approach the 2019 playoff season.   Until then ….