Category Archives: Matchups

NLDS Matchups

Here are the NLDS Matchups for today. Not much commenting because I had to wait for lineups and watched the Bears game.

Braves vs. Cardinals

Atlanta beat the Cardinals 3-1 today. Below are last two week stretches for both teams.

ATL Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
ATL	93	57	85.4	36.7	-10.9	20190915
ATL	97	64	71.8	49.0	-8.8	20190930

SLN Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
SLN	83	65	-33.6	113.8	11.1	20190915
SLN	90	71	-31.2	106.1	6.2	20190930

ATL SLN 10_06_4:10_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
ATL	32	0.545	0.604	X	1.60	3.71	2.42
SLN	20	0.476	0.396	X	-0.78	0.16	1.95

EVs will not be displayed because there are other aspects of playoffs that need to be modeled. The L , S and R columns represent Lineups, Starter, and Relief strengths. Atlanta has Cardinals beat in every category. That doesn’t mean Atlanta is guaranteed to win however, just that they have a greater than 50/50 chance. TC Sim calculates that probability and has them favored more than Vegas today.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Mike_Soroka_ATL	7.35	0.689	174.7	3.71
Adam_Wainwright_SLN	1.24	0.532	171.7	0.16

Soroka is a better pitcher than Wainwriight this season. Even WAR agrees.

ATL Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+097+	3.25	Shane_Greene_ATL	62.7
+176+	2.10	Sean_Newcomb_ATL	68.3
+196+	1.81	Max_Fried_ATL	165.7
XXXXX	1.36	Josh_Tomlin_ATL	79.3
XXXXX	1.32	Mark_Melancon_ATL	67.3
XXXXX	1.09	Luke_Jackson_ATL	72.7
XXXXX	0.34	Darren_O’Day_ATL	5.3
Total	11.27	TIER=2.42

Top notch relief staff.

SLN Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+068+	3.78	Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN	74.0
XXXXX	1.55	John_Brebbia_SLN	72.7
XXXXX	1.51	Carlos_Martinez_SLN	48.3
XXXXX	1.34	Ryan_Helsley_SLN	36.7
XXXXX	0.94	Tyler_Webb_SLN	55.0
XXXXX	0.92	Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN	48.7
XXXXX	0.08	Andrew_Miller_SLN	54.7
XXXXX	-0.17	Genesis_Cabrera_SLN	20.3
Total	9.95	TIER=1.95

At almost Tier 2 means SLN has a relief staff around one standard deviation above league average.

ATL Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+030+	5.69	Ronald_Acuna_ATL	CF-LF-RF	715
+192+	1.83	Ozzie_Albies_ATL	2B	702
+013+	6.91	Freddie_Freeman_ATL	1B	692
+102+	3.13	Josh_Donaldson_ATL	3B	659
XXXXX	0.94	Nick_Markakis_ATL	RF	469
XXXXX	-0.29	Matt_Joyce_ATL	RF	238
XXXXX	-0.40	Brian_McCann_ATL	CR	316
XXXXX	1.01	Dansby_Swanson_ATL	SS	545
XXXXX	0.00	Mike_Soroka_ATL	none	0
Total	18.82	TIER=1.60

This isn’t a +30 lineup like 3 ALDS teams put up yesterday but it’s decent.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
XXXXX	-0.69	Dexter_Fowler_SLN	RF-CF	574
-174-	-1.72	Kolten_Wong_SLN	2B	549
+129+	2.58	Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN	1B	682
+084+	3.42	Marcell_Ozuna_SLN	LF	549
XXXXX	-1.07	Yadier_Molina_SLN	CR	452
-158-	-1.81	Matt_Carpenter_SLN	3B	492
XXXXX	0.88	Tommy_Edman_SLN	3B-2B-RF	349
XXXXX	1.07	Paul_DeJong_SLN	SS	664
XXXXX	0.00	Adam_Wainwright_SLN	none	0
Total	2.66	TIER=-0.78

SLN has a below average lineup which reflects their below average BAT in team status above.

Dodgers vs. Nationals

Dodgers are beating Nationals 8-4 right now. Last two weeks team statuses below for each team.

LAN Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
LAN	96	54	97.5	156.6	-15.9	20190915
LAN	105	56	102.8	174.1	-12.8	20190930

WAS Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
WAS	81	66	56.0	31.7	17.1	20190915
WAS	92	69	78.8	42.0	18.2	20190930

LAN WAS 10_06_7:45_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
LAN	50	0.615	0.619	X	2.15	4.00	3.06
WAS	24	0.408	0.381	X	1.65	0.96	-0.17

Vegas and TC Sim almost completely in agreement.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN	9.30	0.729	182.7	4.00
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS	2.60	0.571	166.0	0.96

Patrick Corbin comes in relief to Sanchez in this game because we’re from the future. Corbin’s ranking shown below in Starters section.

LAN Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+070+	3.74	Julio_Urias_LAN	79.7
+161+	2.27	Pedro_Baez_LAN	69.7
+170+	2.16	Ross_Stripling_LAN	90.7
XXXXX	1.64	Kenta_Maeda_LAN	153.7
XXXXX	1.47	Adam_Kolarek_LAN	55.0
XXXXX	1.16	Kenley_Jansen_LAN	63.0
XXXXX	0.69	Dustin_May_LAN	34.7
XXXXX	-0.08	Joe_Kelly_LAN	51.3
Total	13.05	TIER=3.06

This is a top shelf MLB relief staff. WAR has this staff bottom of 8 MLB contenders.

WAS Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+079+	3.51	Daniel_Hudson_WAS	73.0
XXXXX	1.24	Austin_Voth_WAS	43.7
XXXXX	0.69	Tanner_Rainey_WAS	48.3
XXXXX	0.65	Sean_Doolittle_WAS	60.0
XXXXX	-0.04	Wander_Suero_WAS	71.3
XXXXX	-0.59	Hunter_Strickland_WAS	24.3
XXXXX	-1.30	Fernando_Rodney_WAS	47.7
Total	4.16	TIER=-0.17

This is a league average relief staff and a weakness for the Nationals.

LAN Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+090+	3.34	Joc_Pederson_LAN	LF-RF-1B	514
+029+	5.82	Max_Muncy_LAN	2B-1B-3B	589
XXXXX	1.39	Justin_Turner_LAN	3B	549
+008+	7.85	Cody_Bellinger_LAN	RF-1B-CF	661
+064+	3.91	Corey_Seager_LAN	SS	541
XXXXX	1.32	A.J._Pollock_LAN	CF-LF	342
XXXXX	0.10	Gavin_Lux_LAN	2B	82
XXXXX	-1.22	Russell_Martin_LAN	CR	249
XXXXX	0.00	Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN	none	0
Total	22.51	TIER=2.15

Around one standard deviation above average lineup.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
XXXXX	1.47	Trea_Turner_WAS	SS	569
XXXXX	-0.86	Adam_Eaton_WAS	RF	656
+005+	8.95	Anthony_Rendon_WAS	3B	646
+020+	6.19	Juan_Soto_WAS	LF	659
+085+	3.42	Howie_Kendrick_WAS	1B-2B-3B	370
+132+	2.56	Kurt_Suzuki_WAS	CR	309
XXXXX	-1.45	Brian_Dozier_WAS	2B	482
XXXXX	-1.13	Michael_A._Taylor_WAS	CF	97
XXXXX	0.00	Anibal_Sanchez_WAS	none	0
Total	19.15	TIER=1.65

A slightly less lineup than Dodgers.

Starters

Below is a dump of starters for the four NLDS teams according to our source that publishes roster data.

Braves

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+010+	7.35	Mike_Soroka_ATL	174.7
+122+	2.73	Julio_Teheran_ATL	174.7
+187+	1.93	Dallas_Keuchel_ATL	112.7
XXXXX	-0.15	Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL	117.0
Total	11.86	0.592

Cardinals

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+007+	8.04	Jack_Flaherty_SLN	196.3
+048+	4.70	Dakota_Hudson_SLN	174.7
XXXXX	1.49	Miles_Mikolas_SLN	184.0
XXXXX	1.24	Adam_Wainwright_SLN	171.7
Total	15.47	0.596

Dodgers

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+004+	9.30	Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN	182.7
+025+	6.11	Clayton_Kershaw_LAN	178.3
+036+	5.27	Walker_Buehler_LAN	182.3
+120+	2.79	Rich_Hill_LAN	58.7
Total	23.47	0.675

This is an extremely good rotation which one would expect based on their PITCH in team status.

Nationals

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+017+	6.40	Max_Scherzer_WAS	172.3
+026+	5.96	Patrick_Corbin_WAS	202.0
+028+	5.88	Stephen_Strasburg_WAS	209.0
+128+	2.60	Anibal_Sanchez_WAS	166.0
Total	20.84	0.625

Another very good rotation. Patrick Corbin just got tagged for 6 runs in relief to Sanchez.

That’s all for now. A script generates these posts and I write summary blurbs. Had to wait for lineups and didn’t get to this until late in LAN/WAS game. We’ll just handicap the 4 games tomorrow now that rosters have been covered. Until then ….

ALDS Matchups

This post will cover detail breakdowns of the 4 teams in ALDS since only AL teams are playing today. Tomorrow we’ll do the same for NLDS.

MIN vs. NYA

Minnesota is down 1-0 in the only ALDS series featuring two actual winners of their divisions.

MIN Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
MIN	91	57	136.5	47.6	-11.9	20190915
MIN	101	61	156.9	45.8	-14.6	20191005

MIN went from +34 to +40 in last two weeks of regular season gaining 6 games which was mostly due to hitting according to BAT . Their UR is near worst in MLB.

NYA Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
NYA	98	52	157.4	16.7	12.1	20190915
NYA	103	59	157.9	31.8	11.4	20191005

Yankees went from +46 to +44 losing two games. BAT stayed the same which is slightly ahead of second place MIN in that category out of all 30 MLB teams.

MIN NYA 10_05_5:07_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
MIN	40	0.377	0.495	X	3.72	0.54	3.26
NYA	44	0.643	0.505	X	3.43	-0.41	3.01

These numbers are based on regular season. Playoff factors have not been incorporated into simulation yet. On paper MIN and NYA are very similar in every aspect. Above shows Lineup , Starter , and Relief all around equivalent for each team. Both lineups above Tier 3.00 which are top shelf MLB lineups.

Minnesota’s relief choked last night and they gave up 2 unearned runs which adds to their already terrible UR. This model has this game even steven because on paper these two teams are even steven. Vegas has NYA heavily favored giving MIN bettors $170 on every $100 bet. This pushes EV into MIN territory.

Home field advantage as well as other factors that do not mean much in regular season can be significant in post season. Great HOF pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and even Greg Maddux, have trouble pitching in post season.

The Yankees won 5/7 against MIN in regular season. MIN won one of their two wins in New York. Does that matter? How do you model that? This simulation is still a work in progress. It needs to beat Vegas by more than 10% to be viable.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Randy_Dobnak_MIN	1.89	0.801	28.3	0.54
Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA	0.25	0.506	182.0	-0.41

Two relatively mediocre pitchers. Randy Dobnak is listed as a reliever below. Where this model gets current rosters could have errors. Or maybe Minnesota is pulling a Tampa Bay trick by using an opener for the first inning.

MIN Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+110+	2.96	Taylor_Rogers_MIN	69.0
+127+	2.62	Tyler_Duffey_MIN	57.7
+162+	2.27	Trevor_May_MIN	64.3
+189+	1.89	Randy_Dobnak_MIN	28.3
XXXXX	1.53	Zack_Littell_MIN	37.0
XXXXX	1.49	Sergio_Romo_MIN	60.3
XXXXX	0.69	Cody_Stashak_MIN	25.0
XXXXX	-0.04	Brusdar_Graterol_MIN	9.7
Total	13.41	TIER=3.26

That’s a solid staff with value spread evenly among top 6.

NYA Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+059+	4.03	Adam_Ottavino_NYA	66.3
+073+	3.72	Zack_Britton_NYA	61.3
+107+	3.07	Aroldis_Chapman_NYA	57.0
XXXXX	1.20	Tommy_Kahnle_NYA	61.3
XXXXX	0.76	Luis_Cessa_NYA	81.0
XXXXX	0.55	Chad_Green_NYA	69.0
XXXXX	-0.02	Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA	31.7
XXXXX	-0.55	Tyler_Lyons_NYA	12.7
XXXXX	-1.51	J.A._Happ_NYA	161.3
Total	11.25	TIER=3.01

Yankees have two relievers top 100 which can be a significant advantage over Minnesota’s spread out relief staff in a 5 game series.

MIN Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+033+	5.35	Mitch_Garver_MIN	CR	359
+193+	1.83	Jorge_Polanco_MIN	SS-DH	704
+014+	6.74	Nelson_Cruz_MIN	DH	521
+024+	6.15	Eddie_Rosario_MIN	LF-RF	590
+038+	5.23	Miguel_Sano_MIN	3B	439
+046+	4.75	Max_Kepler_MIN	RF-CF	596
XXXXX	-0.42	Marwin_Gonzalez_MIN	RF-3B-1B-LF	463
XXXXX	0.99	C.J._Cron_MIN	1B	499
XXXXX	-0.59	Luis_Arraez_MIN	2B-LF-3B	366
Total	30.03	TIER=3.72

This is a rock em sock em lineup. Looks like that Nelson Cruz free agent signing worked out well.

NYA Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+035+	5.29	DJ_LeMahieu_NYA	2B-3B-1B	655
+172+	2.14	Aaron_Judge_NYA	RF-DH	447
+126+	2.65	Brett_Gardner_NYA	CF-LF	550
+043+	4.96	Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA	1B-DH	486
XXXXX	0.36	Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA	LF	72
+062+	3.97	Gleyber_Torres_NYA	SS-2B	604
+104+	3.11	Gary_Sanchez_NYA	CR-DH	446
+142+	2.48	Didi_Gregorius_NYA	SS	344
+099+	3.17	Gio_Urshela_NYA	3B	476
Total	28.13	TIER=3.43

… and so is this. One should expect these two teams would have the highest valued lineups based on both are leading two teams with BAT in MLB.

TBA vs. HOU

TBA Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
TBA	89	61	-8.5	112.7	2.1	20190915
TBA	96	66	-16.1	120.8	1.4	20191005

Went from +28 to +30 last two weeks in September.

HOU Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
HOU	97	53	131.4	103.6	12.1	20190915
HOU	107	55	139.9	127.8	14.4	20191005

Went from +44 to +52 gaining 8 games becoming the best team in baseball based upon the only stat that matters; wins minus losses.

TBA HOU 10_05_9:07_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
TBA	30	0.278	0.326	X	-0.62	-0.37	1.76
HOU	52	0.762	0.674	X	3.80	4.00	3.52

HOU is favored 3-1 which is a very big payout for TBA bettors if they win. As Vegas expected probability approaches 1 , Expected value approaches infinity. This will be discussed in more detail in the off season. TC Sim has HOU heavily favored as well but not by as much. Houston leads in all categories; WAA, Lineup , Starter, and Relief.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Blake_Snell_TBA	0.32	0.513	107.0	-0.37
Gerrit_Cole_HOU	9.64	0.704	212.3	4.00

Gerrit Cole is the #2 best player in MLB this season. He’s at a maxed out tier of 4.00.

TBA Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+083+	3.42	Emilio_Pagan_TBA	70.0
XXXXX	1.76	Yonny_Chirinos_TBA	133.3
+198+	1.74	Nick_Anderson_TBA	65.0
XXXXX	1.62	Diego_Castillo_TBA	68.7
XXXXX	1.57	Oliver_Drake_TBA	56.0
XXXXX	0.42	Chaz_Roe_TBA	51.0
XXXXX	-0.36	Colin_Poche_TBA	51.7
XXXXX	-0.84	Brendan_McKay_TBA	49.0
Total	9.33	TIER=1.76

Decent relief staff, almost 1 complete standard deviation above league average.

HOU Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+056+	4.14	Will_Harris_HOU	60.0
+121+	2.75	Roberto_Osuna_HOU	65.0
+123+	2.69	Ryan_Pressly_HOU	54.3
+195+	1.83	Wade_Miley_HOU	167.3
XXXXX	1.55	Joe_Smith_HOU	25.0
XXXXX	1.05	Hector_Rondon_HOU	60.7
XXXXX	0.48	Jose_Urquidy_HOU	41.0
XXXXX	-0.36	Josh_James_HOU	61.3
Total	14.13	TIER=3.52

This staff is much better, almost 2 complete standard deviations above league average.

TBA Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+111+	2.94	Austin_Meadows_TBA	RF-DH-LF	591
XXXXX	-1.51	Tommy_Pham_TBA	LF-DH	654
XXXXX	-0.17	Ji-Man_Choi_TBA	1B-DH	487
XXXXX	0.67	Yandy_Diaz_TBA	3B-1B-DH	347
XXXXX	1.41	Brandon_Lowe_TBA	2B	327
+130+	2.71	Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA	CR-1B	391
XXXXX	-1.36	Joey_Wendle_TBA	2B-3B-SS	263
XXXXX	-0.21	Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA	CF	480
-114-	-2.23	Willy_Adames_TBA	SS	584
Total	2.25	TIER=-0.62

This is a below league average lineup.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+023+	6.17	George_Springer_HOU	CF-RF-DH	556
+089+	3.34	Jose_Altuve_HOU	2B	548
+124+	2.67	Michael_Brantley_HOU	LF-DH	637
+011+	7.22	Alex_Bregman_HOU	3B-SS	690
+042+	5.00	Yordan_Alvarez_HOU	DH-LF	369
+052+	4.45	Yuli_Gurriel_HOU	1B-3B	612
+137+	2.54	Carlos_Correa_HOU	SS	321
XXXXX	1.09	Robinson_Chirinos_HOU	CR	437
-137-	-1.97	Josh_Reddick_HOU	RF-LF	550
Total	30.51	TIER=3.80

This is a rock em sock em lineup on par with both NYA and MIN.

ALDS Starters

MIN

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+077+	3.55	Jose_Berrios_MIN	200.3
+080+	3.46	Jake_Odorizzi_MIN	159.0
XXXXX	0.67	Devin_Smeltzer_MIN	49.0
XXXXX	-1.47	Kyle_Gibson_MIN	160.0
Total	6.21	0.549

NYA

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+149+	2.42	James_Paxton_NYA	150.7
XXXXX	0.84	Luis_Severino_NYA	12.0
XXXXX	0.25	Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA	182.0
Total	3.51	0.546

TBA

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+021+	6.19	Charlie_Morton_TBA	194.7
+071+	3.74	Tyler_Glasnow_TBA	60.7
XXXXX	0.94	Ryan_Yarbrough_TBA	141.7
XXXXX	0.32	Blake_Snell_TBA	107.0
Total	11.19	0.600

HOU

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+001+	9.70	Justin_Verlander_HOU	223.0
+002+	9.64	Gerrit_Cole_HOU	212.3
+009+	7.35	Zack_Greinke_HOU	208.7
Total	26.69	0.686

Houston has three pitchers in the top 10 along with a +30 lineup. They will be tough for anyone to beat.

Not much more to say about this. NLDS teams tomorrow. Until then ….

AL Wild Card Game

AL Wild Card Game tonight. Let’s look at this matchup.

TBA Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
TBA	89	61	-8.5	112.7	2.1	20190915
TBA	96	66	-16.1	120.8	1.4	20191002

Tampa has near top of MLB PITCH based on runs scored against. They went from +28 to +30 in the last two weeks gaining 2 games. Their BAT is a little under water based on seasonal runs scored.

OAK Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
OAK	89	60	68.4	50.7	22.1	20190915
OAK	97	65	56.9	76.8	25.4	20191002

Oakland has balanced BAT and PITCH and top of MLB UR which means very good fielding. They went from +29 to +32 gaining 3 games in the last two weeks which is good. A team that gains 3 games a month will win 90 games in a season. Both these teams tonight won way more than that.

TBA OAK 10_02_8:09_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
TBA	30	0.465	0.468	101	-0.38	3.26	1.52
OAK	32	0.556	0.532	96	1.89	0.88	3.72

Vegas and TC Sim almost exactly in agreement on this game, both favoring the home team OAK. WAA about the same between these two teams. OAK has better lineup and relief, TBA has a better starter tonight.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Charlie_Morton_TBA	6.19	0.643	194.7	3.26
Sean_Manaea_OAK	2.25	0.840	29.7	0.88

With only 29 2/3 innings pitched, Sean Manaea is a relatively new guy who is Oakland’s hottest pitcher right now based upon Win Percentage. Oakland has Mike Fiers backing him up and listed as the only other starter on their playoff roster.

Morton is a top tier pitcher this season but had a very tumultuous career since 2008. His post season record isn’t very good.

Rank	WAA	IP	ERA	Gs	Gr	Name_TeamID	Pos
XXXXX	-1.11	54.7	4.45	10	4	Charlie_Morton_TOT	PITCH

An ERA of 4.45 would be around average in a regular season. Teams give up far less runs in post season so Morton is under water. He isn’t ranked in the bottom 200 however like a future HOF pitcher for LAN who we’ll mention during NLDS coverage. Sometimes great pitchers have trouble in post season and teams have to pitch them often and hope for the best.

TBA Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+083+	3.42	Emilio_Pagan_TBA	70.0
+198+	1.74	Nick_Anderson_TBA	65.0
XXXXX	1.62	Diego_Castillo_TBA	68.7
XXXXX	1.57	Oliver_Drake_TBA	56.0
XXXXX	0.42	Chaz_Roe_TBA	51.0
XXXXX	-0.36	Colin_Poche_TBA	51.7
Total	8.41	TIER=1.52

This is an above average relief squad.

OAK Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+037+	5.23	Liam_Hendriks_OAK	85.0
+088+	3.36	Yusmeiro_Petit_OAK	83.0
+179+	2.10	Chris_Bassitt_OAK	144.0
XXXXX	1.55	Ryan_Buchter_OAK	45.3
XXXXX	0.82	Jesus_Luzardo_OAK	12.0
XXXXX	0.65	J.B._Wendelken_OAK	32.7
XXXXX	0.34	A.J._Puk_OAK	11.3
XXXXX	0.21	Joakim_Soria_OAK	69.0
XXXXX	-0.17	Jake_Diekman_OAK	62.0
Total	14.09	TIER=3.72

This relief squad is almost 2 standard deviations above league average and might be the best of the 10 remaining teams playing baseball now. We’ll know for sure in a few days when all playoff rosters are released.

TBA Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
XXXXX	0.67	Yandy_Diaz_TBA	3B-1B-DH	347
XXXXX	-1.51	Tommy_Pham_TBA	LF-DH	654
+111+	2.94	Austin_Meadows_TBA	RF-DH-LF	591
+130+	2.71	Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA	CR-1B	391
-156-	-1.81	Matt_Duffy_TBA	3B	169
XXXXX	0.40	Avisail_Garcia_TBA	RF-DH-CF	530
-114-	-2.23	Willy_Adames_TBA	SS	584
XXXXX	-0.21	Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA	CF	480
XXXXX	-0.17	Michael_Brosseau_TBA	2B	142
Total	0.96	TIER=-0.38

This lineup is slightly below average which one would expect based upon their BAT in team status.

OAK Lineup Today

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+082+	3.42	Marcus_Semien_OAK	SS	747
+108+	3.00	Ramon_Laureano_OAK	CF-RF	481
+106+	3.09	Matt_Chapman_OAK	3B	670
+098+	3.19	Matt_Olson_OAK	1B	547
XXXXX	1.74	Mark_Canha_OAK	CF-RF-DH-1B-LF	497
XXXXX	0.57	Jurickson_Profar_OAK	2B	518
XXXXX	0.40	Khris_Davis_OAK	DH	533
-096-	-2.39	Robbie_Grossman_OAK	LF-RF	482
XXXXX	0.78	Sean_Murphy_OAK	CR	60
Total	13.80	TIER=1.89

This is a decent lineup for a playoff team.

That’s all for now. ALDS and NLDS handicapping next and when we get all playoff rosters we’ll do part 11 of the playoff horse race series — this time with actual playoff contenders. Until then .,…

Cubs Cardinals Matchup

Cubs Cardinals, last series of this season. Playoff coverage coming next. It will be like 2013 again.

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SLN Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
SLN	73	59	-42.1	90.7	10.2	20190830
SLN	90	69	-29.9	112.6	10.6	20190927

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CHN SLN 09_27_8:15_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
CHN	5	0.317	0.416	X	-1.48	0.20	1.97
SLN	21	0.714	0.584	X	-0.99	2.15	2.41

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Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Alec_Mills_CHN	1.18	0.671	31.0	0.20
Dakota_Hudson_SLN	4.26	0.613	169.7	2.15

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SLN Starters

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+010+	7.33	Jack_Flaherty_SLN	189.3
+053+	4.22	Dakota_Hudson_SLN	169.7
+177+	2.08	Adam_Wainwright_SLN	167.3
XXXXX	1.53	Miles_Mikolas_SLN	184.0
XXXXX	-0.73	Michael_Wacha_SLN	126.7
Total	14.43	0.578

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SLN Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+063+	3.80	Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN	72.0
+186+	1.95	John_Brebbia_SLN	72.3
+189+	1.93	Ryan_Helsley_SLN	36.3
XXXXX	1.30	John_Gant_SLN	66.3
XXXXX	1.30	Carlos_Martinez_SLN	46.3
XXXXX	0.92	Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN	48.7
XXXXX	0.82	Andrew_Miller_SLN	53.7
XXXXX	0.76	Tyler_Webb_SLN	53.0
XXXXX	-0.34	Junior_Fernandez_SLN	10.7
XXXXX	-0.42	Genesis_Cabrera_SLN	20.0
XXXXX	-1.03	Dominic_Leone_SLN	40.0
XXXXX	-1.05	Mike_Mayers_SLN	18.0
Total	9.94	TIER=2.41

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SLN Lineup 09252019

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
XXXXX	0.82	Tommy_Edman_SLN	3B-2B-RF	321
XXXXX	-0.86	Jose_Martinez_SLN	RF	365
XXXXX	0.02	Rangel_Ravelo_SLN	BAT	35
XXXXX	-0.44	Matt_Wieters_SLN	CR	177
XXXXX	-0.36	Tyler_O’Neill_SLN	LF	146
XXXXX	-0.13	Randy_Arozarena_SLN	BAT	17
XXXXX	-1.18	Yairo_Munoz_SLN	3B-SS-RF-LF	177
XXXXX	-0.04	Edmundo_Sosa_SLN	BAT	6
XXXXX	0.00	Michael_Wacha_SLN	none	0
Total	-2.17	TIER=-0.99

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Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs Pirates start next to the last series of the season. Although mathematically Cubs have a chance, both teams are pretty much done for the season.

PIT Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
PIT	63	81	-6.2	-76.0	-21.6	20190910
PIT	65	91	-28.6	-110.8	-23.3	20190924

Pirates went from -18 to -26 in the last two weeks which is very very bad. Both BAT and PITCH tanked equally.

CHN PIT 09_24_7:05_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
CHN	8	0.636	0.679	107	1.45	2.36	2.23
PIT	-26	0.385	0.321	83	-1.70	-2.60	-1.56

Both Vegas and TC Sim have Cubs favored today. Cubs up on WAA, Lineup, Starter, and Relief.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN	4.54	0.619	171.0	2.36
Mitch_Keller_PIT	-3.21	0.164	43.0	-2.60

Hopefully Hendricks finishes this season strong.

PIT Starters

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
XXXXX	0.23	Joe_Musgrove_PIT	164.3
XXXXX	-0.84	Dario_Agrazal_PIT	67.3
XXXXX	-1.30	Steven_Brault_PIT	108.3
-183-	-1.64	James_Marvel_PIT	12.3
-048-	-3.13	Trevor_Williams_PIT	138.7
-047-	-3.21	Mitch_Keller_PIT	43.0
Total	-9.89	0.417

This is a terrible starting rotation which is a significant reason why their team WAA is -26.

PIT Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
XXXXX	1.66	Francisco_Liriano_PIT	67.0
XXXXX	1.36	Richard_Rodriguez_PIT	62.3
XXXXX	1.36	Keone_Kela_PIT	26.7
XXXXX	0.63	Michael_Feliz_PIT	55.3
XXXXX	0.50	Wei-Chung_Wang_PIT	31.0
XXXXX	-0.10	Williams_Jerez_PIT	9.0
XXXXX	-0.92	Yacksel_Rios_PIT	11.0
XXXXX	-1.34	Clay_Holmes_PIT	48.7
-175-	-1.68	Chris_Stratton_PIT	73.3
-168-	-1.74	Yefry_Ramirez_PIT	23.3
-130-	-1.93	Parker_Markel_PIT	19.3
-089-	-2.42	Alex_McRae_PIT	24.7
-025-	-3.63	Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT	35.0
Total	-8.25	TIER=-1.56

At tier -1.56 this is a well below average relief squad.

PIT Lineup 09222019

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
XXXXX	-1.18	Cole_Tucker_PIT	SS	155
XXXXX	1.91	Bryan_Reynolds_PIT	LF-RF-CF	536
-115-	-1.91	Adam_Frazier_PIT	2B	578
XXXXX	0.65	Jose_Osuna_PIT	1B-RF-3B	255
XXXXX	0.00	Pablo_Reyes_PIT	RF-LF	130
XXXXX	-0.36	Kevin_Kramer_PIT	BAT	34
XXXXX	-1.05	Jacob_Stallings_PIT	CR	187
-116-	-2.08	Erik_Gonzalez_PIT	SS-3B	129
XXXXX	0.00	Trevor_Williams_PIT	none	0
Total	-4.02	TIER=-1.70

And their lineup is under water which one should expect based on their seasonal BAT in team status.

That is all for now. Playoff season coverage coming next. Until then ….