Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs play the Reds again after playing them around 2 weeks ago.  Let’s take a look at what the Reds have been up to.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 38 43 -48.0 76.0 13.9 20190701
CIN 42 48 -47.1 70.3 12.6 20190715

They went 4-5 losing 1 game in the last 2 weeks.  PITCH down a little and BAT around the same.  This is a team going sideways.   In past years Reds had great hitting and terrible pitching.

CIN CHN 07_15_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN -6 0.431 0.442 103 -1.00 3.00 -0.66
CHN 7 0.587 0.558 95 1.56 1.48 0.22

Vegas and Tier Combo simulation pretty much in agreement.  CIN has a maxed out starter today but Cubs have a better lineup and relief.  The L, S, and R columns are tier numbers used in simulation for Lineups, today’s starter, and Relief.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Luis_Castillo_CIN 5.80 0.746 106.0 3.00
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.16 0.602 95.3 1.48

Two very good pitchers starting tonight.   Castillo is top of MLB and in contention for a Cy Young so far this season.  Hendricks chugging along ranked around #100 which is pretty good.  He usually percolates to the top second half of season.

WinPct provides context for pitchers and is a mere calculation of WAA and time, time being Innings Pitched or Outs for pitchers as described here.   No one is ranked based upon  WinPct because it’s a rate.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+003+ 5.80 Luis_Castillo_CIN 106.0
+057+ 2.75 Sonny_Gray_CIN 97.3
+174+ 1.47 Tanner_Roark_CIN 97.0
XXXXX 0.78 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 86.7
XXXXX -0.42 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 97.0
Total 10.38 0.597

Pretty decent set of starters which is unusual for the Reds.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+194+ 1.28 Jared_Hughes_CIN 37.0
XXXXX 1.09 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 47.0
XXXXX 0.88 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 35.3
XXXXX 0.61 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 38.7
XXXXX 0.48 Matt_Bowman_CIN 18.0
XXXXX -0.48 Wandy_Peralta_CIN 24.7
XXXXX -0.55 Jimmy_Herget_CIN 0.7
-096- -1.70 David_Hernandez_CIN 38.7
Total 1.61 0.530

This relief staff is slightly below league average of 2.45 which is based upon current rosters.

CIN Lineup 7/14/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.17 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 245
XXXXX -0.97 Jesse_Winker_CIN LF-CF-RF 286
XXXXX 0.38 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 375
+142+ 1.76 Derek_Dietrich_CIN 2B-1B-LF 243
XXXXX 0.00 Phillip_Ervin_CIN none 0
XXXXX -0.55 Scooter_Gennett_CIN BAT 20
XXXXX -1.20 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 298
XXXXX 0.36 Kyle_Farmer_CIN 2B-1B 114
XXXXX 0.00 Tyler_Mahle_CIN none 0
Total -0.39 0.495

This is a -1 tier number lineup from yesterday which is 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current MLB rosters.  Joey Votto isn’t in this lineup but if he is, at WAA = -2.41,  CIN lineup only gets worse.

Not much more to say about this series.  Until then ….

Cubs White Sox Matchup

Tonight the Cubs play White Sox at Comiskey.  Let’s see how the White Sox have been doing since these two teams last met.

CHA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHA 34 36 -39.6 -19.7 1.5 20190618
CHA 41 43 -48.7 -21.9 0.5 20190706

Since June 18 the White Sox went 7-7 , completely even steven.  BAT declined and PITCH remained around the same, both underwater.  The White Sox are -70 in run differential right now and they are quite fortunate being only 2 games under 0.500.

CHN CHA 07_06_7:15_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 4 0.535 0.549 102 1.45 0.55 0.23
CHA -2 0.488 0.451 92 -2.04 3.00 0.30

Cubs have a better team WAA, and Lineup today, relief about the same between these two teams.  White Sox have a maxed out tier 3 starter pitching tonight. Vegas and TC Sim based upon the above tier numbers are very close, both favoring the Cubs a little, so both lines in this game would be discard.

Let’s see who today’s starters are.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jon_Lester_CHN 1.18 0.560 88.0 0.55
Lucas_Giolito_CHA 4.68 0.720 96.0 3.00

Giolito is their ace and Lester has had some rough outings this season but still above average.  Starting advantage definitely favors White Sox based upon this year’s numbers.  Last season Giolito was number one in the bottom 200 of this data model making him the least valuable player in MLB.  Somehow this season he has turned it around.  Simulations are currently only based upon current year data.  If you factor in career stats Lester is a far better overall pitcher.

CHA Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 4.68 Lucas_Giolito_CHA 96.0
XXXXX 0.40 Ross_Detwiler_CHA 11.0
XXXXX NA Dylan_Cease_CHA 5.0
-032- -2.44 Ivan_Nova_CHA 94.3
-014- -3.51 Reynaldo_Lopez_CHA 98.0
Total -0.93 0.486

A sub 0.500 starting rotation with Giolito carrying the load.

CHA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+081+ 2.25 Aaron_Bummer_CHA 31.3
+088+ 2.21 Alex_Colome_CHA 34.7
XXXXX 1.01 Evan_Marshall_CHA 22.0
XXXXX 0.61 Juan_Minaya_CHA 26.0
XXXXX -0.25 Jace_Fry_CHA 27.7
XXXXX -0.32 Josh_Osich_CHA 29.0
XXXXX -0.88 Jose_Ruiz_CHA 22.0
-062- -2.02 Kelvin_Herrera_CHA 30.7
Total 2.61 0.553

This is around a current league average relief squad based upon current MLB team rosters.  Mediocre relief and below average starters explain their poor PITCH in team status.  If the White Sox decide to become buyers at trade deadline this could change.  Not sure they have the horses to make the playoffs however.

CHA Lineup 07042019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.40 Leury_Garcia_CHA CF-RF-SS 322
XXXXX 0.97 Yoan_Moncada_CHA 3B 322
XXXXX 1.28 Jose_Abreu_CHA 1B-DH 356
XXXXX 0.34 James_McCann_CHA CR 238
XXXXX 0.23 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA LF 238
-054- -2.29 Jose_Rondon_CHA 2B-3B 132
-035- -2.31 Yolmer_Sanchez_CHA 2B 262
-160- -1.11 Ryan_Cordell_CHA RF-CF 158
XXXXX -0.99 Charlie_Tilson_CHA RF-LF-CF 138
Total -4.28 0.462

The above lineup is from their last game  July 4 and it’s below average which one would expect from their very below average BAT in team status.

Not much more to say about these White Sox.   More minor league posts coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs play the Pirates again today in Pittsburgh.  Let’s look at game 2 of this series in particular and in general the state of the Pirates roster.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 28 30 -30.0 -31.0 -4.8 20190604
PIT 40 43 -4.5 -30.4 -3.0 20190702

In the last 4 weeks Pirates went 12-13 losing a game which is almost even steven.  At team WAA = -3 they’re still in contention.  Cubs were -2 at All Star break in 2017 and made it to NLCS that year.

They’re BAT improved a lot during this period going from very negative to almost completely average,  PITCH and UR remained about the same.  Let’s look at game records for today.

CHN PIT 07_02_7:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 5 0.565 0.557 98 0.96 1.72 0.30
PIT -3 0.455 0.443 97 0.30 -0.01 -0.31

The above shows Vegas and Tier Combo simulations to be almost equal leading to EV (Expected Value) for a 100 bet to be less than 100 for each line.  Clearly a discard.  Team WAA, L,  S, and R columns favor the Cubs today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.21 0.612 88.3 1.72
Joe_Musgrove_PIT 0.61 0.530 90.7 -0.01

Starters above favor the Cubs.   Every 2 Tier # represents one standard deviation above or below league average based on current rosters.  Musgrove is almost completely current league average right now.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+159+ 1.34 Jordan_Lyles_PIT 70.3
XXXXX 0.57 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 90.7
XXXXX 0.32 Steven_Brault_PIT 56.7
XXXXX -0.02 Trevor_Williams_PIT 71.3
-095- -1.66 Chris_Archer_PIT 73.7
Total 0.55 0.507

Although technically this is an above average rotation with a WinPct above 0.500, current league averages based upon rosters is higher than team averages based upon seasonal run differential.   Tier numbers for starting rotations are not calculated because individual starters matter in a game simulation, not the starters sitting on the bench resting their arms.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+087+ 2.23 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 35.0
+134+ 1.70 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 40.0
XXXXX 1.18 Kyle_Crick_PIT 29.0
XXXXX 0.42 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT 35.7
XXXXX -0.02 Clay_Holmes_PIT 23.7
XXXXX -0.69 Michael_Feliz_PIT 21.3
XXXXX -0.69 Dovydas_Neverauskas_PIT 7.3
-024- -2.69 Chris_Stratton_PIT 42.7
Total 1.44 0.528

According to a Tier #  = -0.31, this is a below average relief squad

PIT Lineup 7/1/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-105- -1.99 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 307
XXXXX 0.71 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF 223
XXXXX 0.90 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 325
+003+ 4.49 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 356
XXXXX 0.55 Corey_Dickerson_PIT LF 72
+171+ 0.94 Colin_Moran_PIT 3B 246
XXXXX -0.94 Jung_Ho_Kang_PIT 3B 137
XXXXX -0.59 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 176
XXXXX 0.00 Trevor_Williams_PIT none 0
Total 4.07 0.542

Lineup from yesterday because current lineups haven’t been released yet.  This was a slightly above current league average for lineups which one would predict based upon their around average BAT in team status.

That is all for now.  Cubs status hasn’t been done in over two weeks so that report will post tomorrow.  Until then ….

 

Cubs Reds Matchup

Today the Cubs start a series against the Reds in Cincinnati.  Let’s lookup at how this current Reds team.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 26 30 -12.5 36.8 12.6 20190531
CIN 36 42 -47.7 76.6 13.5 20190628

Reds went 10-12 in the last 4 weeks.  Pitch excelled, BAT tanked and UR stayed around the same and still top of MLB right now.  If it wasn’t for their poor hitting they could be in contention this season.  Ironically last season around this time Reds had great hitting and lousy pitching.  Based upon BAT+PITCH+UR this team should be well above 0.500.  Unfortunately for them the MLB commissioner only cares about real wins.

CHN CIN 06_28_7:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 7 0.550 0.609 110 0.24 3.00 -0.12
CIN -6 0.472 0.391 83 -1.70 0.47 2.95

The above are game records showing what Vegas thinks of this game and what the simulations based upon this data model thinks.   TC Sim has the Cubs favored much more than Vegas which is usually due to home field irrational exuberance.  Cubs are ahead in real team WAA (first column), Lineup, and Starter.  CIN has much better relief.  Lineups are from the last game played since we don’t have current ones at the time of posting this.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Cole_Hamels_CHN 3.51 0.660 98.7 3.00
Sonny_Gray_CIN 1.03 0.561 76.0 0.47

Cole Hamels is having an exceptional year with a maxed out +3 tier number.  This will be expanded to +4 or higher in next TC sim iteration.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 4.45 Luis_Castillo_CIN 91.3
+051+ 2.58 Tanner_Roark_CIN 85.7
XXXXX 1.11 Sonny_Gray_CIN 76.0
XXXXX 0.57 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 82.7
XXXXX -0.08 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 74.7
Total 8.63 0.595

Above are their starters who are pretty good.  The aggregate of this rotation matches their PITCH in team status.  This may change drastically if Reds decide to sell at the trade deadline.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 2.33 Amir_Garrett_CIN 35.0
+152+ 1.43 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 40.3
+159+ 1.39 Jared_Hughes_CIN 34.0
XXXXX 0.84 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 29.0
XXXXX 0.71 Matt_Bowman_CIN 14.3
XXXXX 0.61 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 32.7
XXXXX 0.40 David_Hernandez_CIN 34.7
XXXXX 0.00 Zach_Duke_CIN 23.3
Total 7.71 0.643

This is a very good relief staff so far.

CIN Lineup  6/28/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.04 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 204
-044- -2.18 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 306
XXXXX -0.23 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 327
XXXXX 0.25 Yasiel_Puig_CIN RF 294
XXXXX -0.63 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 260
XXXXX 0.00 Scooter_Gennett_CIN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Phillip_Ervin_CIN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Sonny_Gray_CIN none 0
XXXXX -0.04 Curt_Casali_CIN CR 134
Total -2.87 0.464

This is a very under water lineup which reflects their dismal BAT in team status.    A couple of new guys in the lineup today.

The voting for All Star game changed drastically this season so it was kind of mess to analyze compared to previous years.  Still deciding whether or not to bother and might just do pitchers.  Until then ….

Cubs Braves Matchup

Cubs start a four game series with the Braves today.  Let’s look at this Atlanta team the Cubs face.

ATL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ATL 30 24 20.1 5.3 -8.3 20190527
ATL 46 32 56.5 12.3 -19.4 20190624

In the last 4 weeks ATL went 16-8 gaining 8 games to make them +14 for the season so far.  Based upon the above BAT improved a lot and PITCH improved somewhat.  Unearned Runs above average (UR) took a steep hit yet that didn’t prevent Atlanta from going on a tremendous run putting them first in the NL East.   It will be interesting to see how many runs they give to the Cubs this week.

ATL CHN 06_24_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 14 0.450 0.571 X 3.00 1.58 0.86
CHN 7 0.569 0.429 X 1.14 0.03 0.08

Vegas has the Cubs favored, TC Sim has ATL favored today.  The L, S, and R columns as well as real team WAA (first column), the only stat in baseball that counts, all favor ATL.  Lineups are from yesterday for both teams.  The Cubs usually field a +2 tier number lineup and Lester below took a big hit his last game.  This would narrow the difference somewhat but nowhere near where Vegas has this game right now.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Julio_Teheran_ATL 1.99 0.603 87.3 1.58
Jon_Lester_CHN 0.61 0.536 76.3 0.03

This model can only count past results and Lester has had his ups and downs this season.   Lester has a better career but Teheran has pitched better this season so far.  WAR has Teheran ranked #87, top 100, and Lester unranked.

ATL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+012+ 4.22 Mike_Soroka_ATL 78.3
+090+ 1.99 Julio_Teheran_ATL 87.3
XXXXX 0.69 Max_Fried_ATL 82.7
XXXXX -0.13 Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 5.0
-022- -2.75 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 59.3
Total 4.02 0.558

The above is ATL’s starting rotation which isn’t bad.  Soroka pitched yesterday based upon their lineup yesterday so the Cubs probably won’t face him this series.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+101+ 1.93 Jacob_Webb_ATL 27.0
XXXXX 1.16 Luke_Jackson_ATL 38.0
XXXXX 1.05 Anthony_Swarzak_ATL 29.3
XXXXX 0.61 Josh_Tomlin_ATL 43.0
XXXXX 0.59 Grant_Dayton_ATL 7.7
XXXXX -0.06 Jerry_Blevins_ATL 13.7
XXXXX -0.23 Touki_Toussaint_ATL 32.7
XXXXX -1.20 [A-Z].J._Minter_ATL 17.0
Total 3.85 0.583

Relief staff not the greatest but above average with a tier number of 0.86, almost 1/2 standard deviation above current league average for relief.

ATL Lineup 06232019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+087+ 1.95 Ronald_Acuna_ATL CF-LF 349
+104+ 1.99 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 330
+017+ 4.07 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 344
XXXXX 0.63 Josh_Donaldson_ATL 3B 305
+119+ 1.81 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 312
+045+ 2.90 Austin_Riley_ATL LF 150
XXXXX 0.84 Brian_McCann_ATL CR 152
XXXXX 0.88 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 337
XXXXX 0.00 Mike_Soroka_ATL none 0
Total 15.07 0.627

This is a maxed out +3 tier number lineup.  Actually it’s 2 complete standard deviations above current league average lineup of +2.75 which would give it a +4 tier number.  This will be implemented in the next simulation iteration.  Bottom line: This is an extremely powerful lineup and possibly/likely best in MLB right now.

The lineup they field today probably will be somewhat lower than above because managers like to rest players.  There are a few differences in WAR with the above, some higher, some lower, but based upon cumulative ranking score, WAR would rate this lineup like this data model.

That is all for now.  We’re getting close to All Star picks as well as another Cubs status and perhaps another Playoff Horse Race update.  Until then ….