Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Padres Matchup

Tonight the Cubs start a final three game series with the Padres before their ASG vacation — except for Baez, Contreras and Lester.  Let’s see what the Cubs have to deal with these next three days.  Here is the current team status line for San Diego.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-61.5 -22.7 351 442 40 56 -9.6 1.8 SDN

That’s top of MLB worst hitting right now.  Only KCA and BAL are ahead of them.  PITCH is less bad but still terrible and this team is -16 in the win/loss column.  Even Unearned Runs above average (UR) is terrible.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board says.

Ouija Board

DATE 07_13_10:10_PM CHN SDN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.563 ] < 0.552 > -123 $181
STARTAWAY -1.53(0.413) Tyler_Chatwood_CHN TIER 4
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME SDN [ 0.457 ] < 0.469 > +113 $213
STARTHOME -1.39(0.447) Clayton_Richard_SDN TIER 4
--------------------------------------------
CHN 52 38 SDN 40 56
DELTAWAA 30 WINPCT 0.639 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 1 ==> SDN Starter 4 / Relief 2 == 0.584 CHN 4.88 runs
SDN Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 4 / Relief 1 == 0.416 SDN 3.97 runs
--------------------------------------------
EXPECTED VALUE
EV deltaWAA CHN 116 SDN 77
EV TierCombo CHN 106 SDN 89

The Ouija Board has once again expanded to include Expected Value.  Still working on a better way to present this but we’ll have to muddle through the above for now.  The last number in LINEAWAY and LINEHOME records is the value of the pot on a $100 bet.  The Cubs are favored so if they win you get your risked $100 back plus $81 making a total value of $181.  Ditto for LINEHOME record.  The second to last number in each record is the official nomenclature used by sports books and included for reference purposes only.  The bold number in each LINE record is the break even probability, the probability required for the Expected Value on a $100 to equal $100 (i.e. break even).  There is no point to bet if you’re going to break even.

The DeltaWAA line is the break even probability only looking at win/loss record and nothing else.  The Cubs are way ahead of the Padres in this   Historically teams teams with this difference win almost 64% of the time.

Tier Combo simulations, based upon the value of players playing today gives the Cubs a 0.584 chance of winning today, lower than deltaWAA but higher than the break even probability.  Since the Cubs are above their break even probability they could be a betting opportunity tonight.

The last section shows Expected Value of the two derived probabilities, deltaWAA and Tier Combo simulations.  Here is how they’re calculated for CHN.

CHN deltaWAA EV = P(win) * value = 0.639 * 181 = 116
CHN TierCombo EV = P(win) * value = 0.584 * 181 = 106

In both derived systems the CHN EV exceeds 100 but not enough to bet them.  The current working threshold is 120.  Another current rule is deltaWAA EV is never used to make a bet, only to wave off a bet.  Right now the CHN line is a discard.  The SDN line is a clear discard as its EV for both are way below the break even mark of 100.

SDN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 5 SDN -9.01
SP 4 Eric_Lauer_SDN -0.71
SP 5 Luis_Perdomo_SDN -1.91
SP 4 Clayton_Richard_SDN -1.39
SP 4 Tyson_Ross_SDN -0.82
RP 2 SDN 6.32

This table sums up the important tier categories for the Padres.  Lineups and Relief (RP) are sums of groups of players, starters are single players.  SDN has a terrible starting rotation but a half way decent relief squad at Tier 2.  Their lineup is terrible which also should be expected based up on their poor BAT number in team status.  Let’s look at the relievers Cubs will face these next few days.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+082+ 2.06 Kirby_Yates_SDN PITCH
+188+ 1.20 Phil_Maton_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 1.09 Brad_Hand_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 1.07 Matt_Strahm_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 0.99 Craig_Stammen_SDN PITCH
XXXXX 0.97 Adam_Cimber_SDN PITCH
XXXXX -0.04 Robbie_Erlin_SDN PITCH
XXXXX -0.99 Phil_Hughes_TOT PITCH
Total 6.35

Not bad.  They’re close to a Tier 1 border.  Hopefully the Cubs can take them down a notch or two like what Cleveland did to Cincinnati Reds relief two days ago.  And finally, here is the Tier 5 lineup SDN played yesterday.

SDN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 07122018
-1.97 Travis_Jankowski_SDN RF-LF-CF 219
-0.88 Carlos_Asuaje_SDN 2B 147
0.99 Wil_Myers_SDN LF 113
-1.09 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 385
-0.92 Jose_Pirela_SDN 2B-LF 356
-2.46 Freddy_Galvis_SDN SS 372
-1.74 Manuel_Margot_SDN CF 293
-0.32 Austin_Hedges_SDN CR 119
-0.61 Tyson_Ross_SDN PR 34
TOTAL WAA=-9.01 PA=2038 WinPct=0.415

That’s pretty bad.  Note that all those players above, except for Asuage,  have a much higher WAR than Anthony Rizzo who is now at WAR=-0.1.   This model has him ranked #137 now after dropping a little this month.  Let’s compare Travis jankowski and Anthony Rizzo.  Here are their current WARs.

WAR Data

Rank WAR Name_TeamID Pos
+198+ 1.3 Travis_Jankowski_SDN RF-LF-CF 2018
XXXXX -0.1 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 2018

Jankowski is actually ranked in the top 200 WAR ranking.  Here are the full lines for these two players according to this data model.

WAA Data

Rank WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_TeamID Pos
-054- -2.06 0.264 0.348 228 7 25 Travis_Jankowski_SDN RF-LF-CF
+127+ 1.66 0.236 0.333 357 59 36 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B

This model has Jankowski ranked  #54 in the bottom 200 with a whopping WAA=-2.06.  The Padres are -16 as a team and Jankowski is completely responsible for -2 of  that -16.  Batting averages aren’t that different, neither are OBPs.  Rizzo has a whopping 59 RBIs compared to Jankowski’s 7.  How could WAR get this so wrong?  Is there a single person who thinks Jankowski is out performing Anthony Rizzo this season?  Are the Cubs +14 game above 0.500 because everyone else is performing except for Anthony Rizzo?

If you subscribe to WAR philosophy you must think Jankowski is playing better and you must think that everyone in the above SDN lineup is also out performing Rizzo even though this model considers that group of players as worst in MLB.  Does SDN actually have the worst lineup in MLB as this model has measured?  If not, what caused them to have one of the worst records in baseball and why is their run differential in BAT so underwater?

A value system must be evaluated as to how accurately  it compares players.  This is an easy comparison.  I don’t think Theo Epstein is looking to trade Anthony Rizzo for Travis Jankowski any time soon.

That is all for today.  More league wide handicapping coming and then the All Star Break.  Until then ….

Cubs Reds Matchup

This post is a little late and the Cubs are down 3-1.  Cubs played the Reds a couple of weeks ago.  Here are team statuses for the last time we did this and today.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-3.9 -52.0 315 376 28 45 0.1 -1.2 CIN  6/21/2018
28.1 -48.1 407 440 38 49 -7.5 -1.5 CIN  7/6/2018

BAT up a lot, PITCH up a little, and the Reds went 10-4 gaining +6 wins (WAA).  Their UR tanked however going from around average to a miserable -7.5.  Those runs count too.  Let’s see how the above looks when we drill down into CIN.  First,  what say the markets for today.

Ouija Board

DATE 07_06_2:20_PM CIN CHN

LINEAWAY CIN [ 0.417 ] < 0.400 > +150 $150
STARTAWAY 0.48(0.524) Tyler_Mahle_CIN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.615 ] < 0.623 > -165 $60
STARTHOME 0.97(0.566) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
CIN 38 49 CHN 49 35
DELTAWAA 25 WINPCT 0.643 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CIN Lineup 1 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.495 CIN 4.73 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> CIN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.505 CHN 4.77 runs

The markets show a break even probability of .400 for CIN down from the start at 0.417, Cubs are at 0.623 up from 0.615.  Risking $100 on the Cubs nets you $60 if they win and $150 if you bet the Reds and they win.

Two Tier 3 average starters pitching today.  Tier Combo simulations show this to be an even steven game.  Based upon deltaWAA=25, the Cubs should have a 0.643 chance today.  Now we have a conundrum.  Which value is correct?  DeltaWAA is based upon a seasonal record and Tier Combo is based upon the value of who is playing today.

Tier Combo gives CIN a 0.495 chance which is greater than 0.400 plus our 0.07 margin making them a betting opportunity today.  Not so fast!  Right now the deltaWAA figure provides upward pressure on the line.  The current theory is to use deltaWAA to wave off a bet, never to make a bet.

The difference between deltaWAA for CHN and their Tier Combo result is around 0.14.  Divide that by two and subtract that from the CIN 0.495 figure in Tier Combo and you get 0.425 which is not enough margin to bet.  Thus, the CIN line is a discard.  The CHN line was totally a discard from the beginning.

That’s a rough algorithm that’s still a work in progress and the probability math is still being worked out as well as simulating entire seasons of handicapping.  Today is interesting because the Reds have a much better team than their win/loss record indicates which is why they swept the Cubs a couple of weeks ago.  Cubs currently down 3-2 but hopefully they pull this off — except for the fact that CIN has the best relief staff in MLB.  You might not know that reading sites like Fangraphs.  Let’s look more into this Reds team.

CIN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 CIN 10.98
SP 5 Luis_Castillo_CIN -3.25
SP 4 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN -0.80
SP 4 Matt_Harvey_CIN -1.47
SP 3 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 0.48
SP 5 Sal_Romano_CIN -2.98
RP 1 CIN 9.60

As mentioned earlier CIN Relief (RP) is Tier 1 and now they have a Tier 1 lineup which would align with what we saw in their current team status line.  Their starting rotation is kind of terrible which will be their Achilles heel should they think about making a run for the playoffs.  Matt Harvey moved up a tier since we last saw him.  Let’s look at what is currently the best relief staff in MLB.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+037+ 2.88 Jared_Hughes_CIN PITCH
+127+ 1.57 David_Hernandez_CIN PITCH
+169+ 1.26 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN PITCH
+183+ 1.20 Amir_Garrett_CIN PITCH
+186+ 1.20 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN PITCH
+199+ 1.11 Dylan_Floro_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.23 Jackson_Stephens_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.15 Kyle_Crockett_CIN PITCH
Total 9.6

And finally here is the third best lineup in MLB today.  Cubs are #1 today BTW.

CIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 07062018
-0.06 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 362
3.49 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 345
0.73 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 378
4.14 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 307
2.02 Adam_Duvall_CIN LF 299
1.51 Scott_Schebler_CIN RF-CF 270
-0.08 Curt_Casali_CIN CR 36
-0.65 Tyler_Mahle_CIN PR 29
-0.10 Billy_Hamilton_CIN CF 295
TOTAL WAA=10.98 PA=2321 WinPct=0.591

Looks like the Cubs lost 3-2.  Mahle is their best starter so maybe the Cubs can run up some runs in the first couple of innings tomorrow and hold out for a win.  deltaWAA between CIN and CHN will drop to 23 now which means the Reds are 11.5 games behind the Cubs and there’s almost 1/2 of a season left.

Update 7/7 12pm :  As always, past results do not affect future results, they only show capability.   The Cubs could easily take  Reds’ relief down a few notches today.  No one can predict the future.   The Cubs were -2 at ASG last season.  The Reds are now -11.  They have an uphill battle and for teams trying to eek into a WC spot the last two weeks of September is when playoff season starts for them.   Hopefully the Cubs convince the Reds to be sellers these next few games.  <end of update>

It will be interesting to see if CIN decides to fold and sell at the trade deadline or make a run for it.  They’ll need to shore up that starting rotation if they choose the latter  because you can’t totally rely on relief in the playoffs.

That’s all for today.  If lines go haywire we’ll do another post about it.  Until then ….

Cubs Twins Matchup

The Cubs start a 3 day series with the Twins.  Let’s look at who the Cubs will have to face.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-33.3 1.8 318 342 35 42 7.3 0.1 MIN

Terrible hitting, average pitching and at 35-42 they’re -7 in the win/loss columns.  UR is very high which means they don’t make a lot of errors that lead to runs scored.  Let’s see what the markets think about these two teams.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_29_5:05_PM MIN CHN

LINEAWAY MIN [ 0.500 ] < 0.455 > +120 $120
STARTAWAY 2.50(0.609) Jose_Berrios_MIN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.565 > -130 $76
STARTHOME 0.99(0.573) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
MIN 35 42 CHN 44 35
DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
MIN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.493 MIN 4.19 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> MIN Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.507 CHN 4.27 runs

CHN lineup is fluttering between Tiers 2 and 3 right now as well as their relief.  The Twins are pitching their best starter this season who is currently Tier 1.  Crunch the simulations and the Cubs are favorites but just barely at 0.507.  According to deltaWAA they should win this 61.6% of the time but that’s a blind seasonal difference.  Both lines in this game a discard.  There is no irrational exuberance from fans of either team today.

Since the MIN line is 0.493 it is greater than the sports book which has them at 0.455 right now.  However 0.493 < 0.455 + 0.07 which means discard.   There is also upward pressure from deltaWAA which applies to CHN that drag MIN down even more.  The lines are usually on the money and maybe there are 2 opportunities per day out of all games.  All four of the LAN CHN matchups were betting opportunities except for game 1 which had to be discarded because of a new guy with no data starting for CHN.

The two new numbers at the end of the LINE records show the official line nomenclature put out by the sports book which gets converted into break even probabilities.  The last number is the amount of money you would win betting $100 on that line.  CHN bettors pay a premium today because they receive less money than they risk.  Let’s look at MIN tier data.

MIN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 MIN 0.78
SP 1 Jose_Berrios_MIN 2.50
SP 2 Kyle_Gibson_MIN 1.57
SP 4 Lance_Lynn_MIN -1.13
SP 4 Jake_Odorizzi_MIN -0.86
RP 3 MIN 4.03

According to team status MIN has average PITCH and above looks pretty average.  Here are the relievers the Cubs will have to face ( based upon the latest roster data we have which may not always be the latest in real life ).

MIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+071+ 1.95 Trevor_Hildenberger_MIN PITCH
+162+ 1.26 Matt_Magill_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.88 Zach_Duke_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.78 Fernando_Rodney_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Addison_Reed_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.04 Ryan_Pressly_MIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.02 Taylor_Rogers_MIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.36 Alan_Busenitz_MIN PITCH
-123- -1.24 Matt_Belisle_TOT PITCH
Total 4,03

That’s a Tier 3 average relief pitching (RP).   At WAA=4.6 they would move up to Tier 2 so they’re close.  The simulations use deltas and do not recognize the hard tier boundaries.  MIN Relief is almost above average Tier 2.  Let’s look at their lineup as of yesterday.

MIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06282018
-1.39 Robbie_Grossman_MIN DH 211
3.11 Eddie_Rosario_MIN LF 313
1.24 Eduardo_Escobar_MIN 3B 299
-0.23 Brian_Dozier_MIN 2B 329
-0.90 Logan_Morrison_MIN 1B 263
-0.67 Ehire_Adrianza_MIN SS 187
0.50 Jake_Cave_MIN CF 22
-0.32 Taylor_Motter_TOT RF 31
-0.57 Bobby_Wilson_MIN C 69
TOTAL WAA=0.78 PA=1724 WinPct=0.509

That’s currently considered Tier 3 but close to Tier 4.  Lineups below WAA=0.10 are considered Tier 4 below average now.  As the season progresses averages for lineups, relief, and starters continue to rise.  Although the sum of all players who played this season average to 0 for both pitchers and batters, since the negative value players get washed out the resultant player average of who is left in the league will alway go up.  At the beginning of the season a lineup with WAA=0 would be Tier 3 right in the middle.

That is all for now.  Might do a Cubs status tomorrow which will be a week since the last one.  If the lines go haywire an update will be forthcoming.  All Star Picks Part 1 in two days.  Until then ….

Cubs Dodgers Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Dodgers today in LA with the game starting at 9pm CST.  This game is going to end past midnight here in Chicago.  These two teams met a week ago so Dodgers team status shouldn’t have changed much.  Here is where they’re at today.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
18.6 37.4 360 299 41 35 1.2 3.9 LAN

Decent above average BAT and very good PITCH.  At 41-35 the Dodgers are +6 in the real win/loss columns.  Let’s see how that looks when we drill down some more.  Here is the Ouija Board report for game 1 of this series.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_25_10:10_PM CHN LAN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.408 ] < 0.400 >
STARTAWAY 0.00(NA) Duane_Underwood_Jr._CHN TIER NA
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.623 ] < 0.615 >
STARTHOME 0.36(0.526) Kenta_Maeda_LAN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
CHN 42 33 LAN 41 35
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == NO_DATA CHN 4.53 runs
LAN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 0 / Relief 2 == NO_DATA LAN 4.53 runs

New guy alert!!!  This is the first MLB game for Duane Underwood which means we have no current MLB data to evaluate him.  Minor league data doesn’t count but if you’re interested baseball-reference.com has a nice table of it here.

Both lines an automatic discard because of this.  CHN lineup has dropped to Tier 3, equal now with LAN lineup.  CHN Relief has dropped to Tier 2 and according to Tiers these two teams are very very equal.  If Underwood is considered Tier 3 because his WAA=0 then the simulations indicate each team will score 4.53 runs.  Win% is nixed but  based upon deltaWAA this is probably a 50/50 game — that is if Underwood can pitch in MLB to an average level.

The market is giving the Dodgers a 3/2 advantage today.  If this game is a tossup the Cubs would be a betting opportunity because 0.500 >> 0.400.  Our betting algorithm won’t allow that however.  Let’s look at Tier data for LAN.

LA Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 LAN 5.46
SP 4 Rich_Hill_LAN -1.01
SP 2 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 1.39
SP 3 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 0.36
SP 1 Ross_Stripling_LAN 3.53
SP 3 Alex_Wood_LAN -0.08
RP 3 LAN 4.41

Former Cub Rich Hill having a bad season this year.  Kershaw is back.  He would be Tier 1 had he not been injured but this model does not recognize if, ands, or buts.  Stripling is their ace right now but that rotation has a lot of potential to dominate the rest of this season.  Here are their Tier 3, average relievers Cubs will face these next three games.

LAN Relief Pitching

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+121+ 1.51 Kenley_Jansen_LAN PITCH
+143+ 1.34 Josh_Fields_LAN PITCH
+166+ 1.20 Erik_Goeddel_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.63 Edward_Paredes_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 Scott_Alexander_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.17 Daniel_Hudson_LAN PITCH
XXXXX -0.34 Yimi_Garcia_LAN PITCH
XXXXX -0.48 Caleb_Ferguson_LAN PITCH
Total 4.41

And finally, their lineup yesterday.  Certainly do not want to wait for the lineup tonight to come out.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06242018
0.15 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN SS 194
1.32 Max_Muncy_LAN 3B 184
2.08 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF 250
1.28 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B 297
1.09 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 225
-1.20 Logan_Forsythe_LAN 2B 149
1.66 Joc_Pederson_LAN CF 192
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN C 137
-0.21 Rich_Hill_LAN P 9
TOTAL WAA=5.46 PA=1637 WinPct=0.564

Decent lineup but considered Tier 3, average, just like the Cubs’ lineup now.

That is all for today.  All Star balloting closes on July 5 this year.  The ASG game starts almost a week later than last season.  The ASG three part series, like what was done last year, will start on July 1 with the power positions, 1B, 3B, and outfield.  Part 2 covers defensive positions, 2B , SS , and Catcher.  Part 3 does starting and relief pitching which aren’t voted upon by fans.   Until then ….

Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs start a four game series with the Reds in Cincinnati.  Let’s look at this matchup focusing on the team the Cubs face.  A new Cubs status is coming soon.  Here is the current team status for CIN.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-3.9 -52.0 315 376 28 45 0.1 -1.2 CIN

BAT slightly underwater but the PITCH looks bad.  CIN 5th from worst in the league which is KCA at -92.   We should see more evidence of this as we drill down into the Reds team.  They have real WAA=-17.  As we progress in the season, the current talent on a team will differ from the seasonal numbers posted above.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks of this matchup.

Ouija Board

DATE 06_21_7:10_PM CHN CIN

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.612 ] < 0.615 >
STARTAWAY 1.16(0.562) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.403 ] < 0.400 >
STARTHOME -2.62(0.310) Matt_Harvey_TOT TIER 5
--------------------------------------------
CHN 42 29 CIN 28 45
DELTAWAA 30 WINPCT 0.639 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 2 ==> CIN Starter 5 / Relief 1 == 0.591 CHN 5.06 runs
CIN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.409 CIN 4.12 runs

Cubs lineups have been fluttering between Tier 1 and Tier 2 which means they’re right on the border.  Borders don’t matter in the simulations which will be explained more later.  Hendricks is back to Tier 2.  He also is right by a border, between Tier 2 and Tier 3.  Matt Harvey is having another bad year.  NYN dumped him and the Reds need someone to pitch and not be too terrible.  At Tier 5 Harvey is considered terrible.

The markets have the Cubs clear favorites at 0.615.  Based upon win/loss records, the Cubs are (what they say) 15 games ahead of CIN which translates into a deltaWAA=30 which translates into a 0.639 expected probability for CHN.

Win/loss records are seasonal.  Tier Combo simulations reflect who is actually on the roster in the lineup, relief, and the starter for today.  The simulations give the Cubs 0.591 advantage.  All of these numbers align with the market so both lines a complete discard.

This brings us to Matt Harvey.  Let’s look at his career because I recall him being a pretty good pitcher once.

Matt Harvey Career

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2012 1.8 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH +187+
2013 6.4 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH +010+
2015 5.3 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH +020+
2016 -1.5 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH XXXXX
2017 -5.0 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH -010-
2018 -1.8 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH -020-
2018 -0.8 Matt_Harvey_CIN PITCH -020-
Total 4.4

His best years were 2013 and 2014 and worst season was last year and he’s on track to exceed that.  His upside capability is fantastic but hitters must have figured out how to hit him and maybe he can’t figure out how to fix that.  Let’s look at Tier Data for the Reds.

CIN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 CIN 3.49
SP 5 Luis_Castillo_CIN -3.13
SP 3 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN -0.19
SP 5 Matt_Harvey_CIN -2.62
SP 3 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 0.17
SP 5 Sal_Romano_CIN -2.75
RP 1 CIN 7.22

Lineup is Tier 3 average which is what we would expect from their BAT in team status.  Three Tier 5 starters in their rotation which is also what we would expect from their PITCH in team status.   They have a Tier 1 relief staff which is unexpected.  Let’s take a look at CIN relief.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+041+ 2.39 Jared_Hughes_CIN PITCH
+135+ 1.39 Amir_Garrett_CIN PITCH
+163+ 1.22 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN PITCH
+170+ 1.18 David_Hernandez_CIN PITCH
+195+ 1.03 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.88 Dylan_Floro_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.04 Jackson_Stephens_CIN PITCH
-092- -1.41 Wandy_Peralta_CIN PITCH
Total 6.64

Unless a reliever is an uber closer, they usually get the short end of the stick when it comes to most baseball analysts.   All relievers on a relief staff, whatever inning they pitch are very valuable since they usually pitch 1/3 of each game, but as a team.  A run given up in the 7th inning is equally important mathematically as a run given up in the 9th.  As we saw last year, most successful teams in the playoffs have Tier 1 relief squads.

CIN isn’t making the playoffs this season but maybe Theo can acquire one of these guys for next season or even this season somehow.  You can never have enough pitchers!

CIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06202018
1.26 Scott_Schebler_CIN RF 220
-0.90 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN C 241
0.38 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 313
2.25 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 286
3.25 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 242
-0.99 Jesse_Winker_CIN LF 235
-0.99 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 299
-0.53 Tyler_Mahle_CIN P 23
-0.25 Billy_Hamilton_CIN CF 244
TOTAL WAA=3.49 PA=2103 WinPct=0.532

This is a Tier 3 average lineup.  WAR has Joey Votto ranked much higher than this data model has.  Joey Votto has admitted to being a big fan or WRC+ .  Joey Votto plays to maintain his WRC+.  His actual run production, which makes the Reds 17 games under is slightly above average.  WAR has him ranked #47 amongst all baseball players both pitchers and batters.  WAR has Joey Votto ranked significantly higher than Anthony Rizzo.  Who would you rather have on your team?  That is how you evaluate a value stat.

That is all for today.  Cubs status coming soon and it’s almost time for our All Star picks once we get data as to who the fans picked.  That’s always fun.  Fans like to pick based upon players who do well for their Draft Kings teams,  which doesn’t always agree with who has been helping their real teams win.  Until then ….