Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Giants Matchup 7/19/1984

Cubs took 3 out of 4 from Giants in San Francisco two weeks ago and today they start another 4 game series at Wrigley. Let’s look at these two teams again.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
CHN 52 39 49.6 -13.0 4.4 19840718
SFN 35 56 1.1 -53.0 -17.6 19840718

Cubs at the top of NL with Mets, Padres and Phillies all bunched together. Cubs hitting is superb, top of MLB while pitching is under water based upon seasonal run differential.  Giants have average hitting, terrible pitching and unearned runs above average.  Under water UR means opposing teams score a lot of unearned runs.  The MLB commissioner counts unearned runs equally with earned runs when determining who wins a baseball game.  That’s why this model keeps track of them.  

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SFN -21 X 0.271 X 0.27 -3.21 -1.22  
CHN 13 X 0.729 X 4.00 0.65 1.05  

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a whopping 73% advantage today mostly due to the drastic differences between Cubs’ maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup facing a very under water Tier -3.21 SFN starter. 

Cubs lineup against SFN Starter would compute to 4.00 – (-3.21) = +7 integer tier combo in Cubs favor.  Tier combos max out at +6 and -6 as anything above or below is very rare.  More on how the simulation sausage is made will unravel as this season progresses.

Tier combo for Giants lineup against Cubs starter is 0.27 – 0.65 which is a wash at zero.  Cubs (R)elief staff now at Tier 1.05 while Giants are under water by around the same amount.  The simulator takes these differences and uses historical data to come up with a winning percentage.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name Tm Rest Tier
-012- -3.15 105.3 Mark_Davis SFN 5 -3.21
XXXXX 0.94 64.3 Scott_Sanderson CHN 5 0.65

Mark Davis #12 in the least valuable player list, a list no one wants to be number 1.  Sanderson is unranked but above average both seasonally with raw WAA and the computed Tier number based upon the set of all starters on current MLB rosters.  It would be interesting to see what the Vegas line would be for this game since bettors heavily rely on starter value and although Sanderson is good, he might not be a big enough draw to get bettors to risk 73% betting Cubs today.  Just speculation however.

Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
SFN 001200010 4 18 12 3
CHN 00300030 6 15 8 0

Cubs score 6 against Davis who pitches all 8 innings.  Sanderson gives up 3 in 4 innings, gets pulled, and Cubs relief finishes off the other 5 innings.  

SFN Lineup 198407190

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.99 Dan_Gladden CF 83
XXXXX -0.36 Manny_Trillo 3B 177
+119+ 1.51 Chili_Davis RF 320
+061+ 2.35 Jeff_Leonard LF 358
XXXXX 0.63 Scot_Thompson 1B 95
XXXXX -0.15 Steve_Nicosia CR 101
XXXXX -0.46 Brad_Wellman SS 144
XXXXX -0.73 Duane_Kuiper 2B 85
XXXXX -0.19 Mark_Davis PR 37
TOTAL 3.59

CHN Lineup 198407190

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.63 Bob_Dernier CF 363
+028+ 3.17 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 413
+067+ 2.31 Gary_Matthews LF 353
XXXXX 0.97 Keith_Moreland RF 264
+050+ 2.67 Jody_Davis CR 338
+073+ 2.21 Ron_Cey 3B 321
+010+ 4.07 Leon_Durham 1B 294
-034- -2.33 Larry_Bowa SS 261
XXXXX -0.02 Scott_Sanderson PR 24
TOTAL 13.68

Leon Durham back and batting very low in the lineup.  When Cubs lineups top Tier 4.00 this season it’s most likely due to whether or not Durham can play.   Jody Davis must be in a slump since his ranking dropped to #50 from being in ranked 20 something earlier.

SFN START Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-012- -3.15 Mark_Davis 105.3 0
XXXXX 1.20 Atlee_Hammaker 28.0 1
-011- -3.23 Mike_Krukow 106.7 2
XXXXX 0.23 Bill_Laskey 127.0 3
-087- -1.49 Jeff_Robinson 100.3 4
TOTAL -6.44

This is why Giants’ PITCH in team status is so under water.

CHN START Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.94 Scott_Sanderson 64.3 0
-089- -1.51 Rick_Sutcliffe 145.0 1
XXXXX 1.13 Steve_Trout 108.7 2
-053- -2.06 Dick_Ruthven 59.0 3
-018- -2.77 Dennis_Eckersley 126.4 4
TOTAL -4.27

We’re still mid July so there’s plenty of time for these numbers to improve.  Tiering is done on individual starters who pitch that day, not the group.

SFN RELIEF Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -1.22 Jeff_Cornell 34.0 1
XXXXX 0.32 Greg_Minton 75.3 1
XXXXX -0.69 Bob_Lacey 4.0 1
XXXXX 0.82 Gary_Lavelle 59.7 3
XXXXX -0.40 Frank_Williams 69.7 3
TOTAL -1.17

As expected, under water relief.  Giants’ manager pitched Davis a complete 8 innings today because he had 3 relievers who pitched yesterday.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -0.34 George_Frazier 67.6 0
+093+ 1.81 Tim_Stoddard 55.3 0
XXXXX 1.24 Rich_Bordi 56.0 2
XXXXX -0.02 Warren_Brusstar 39.7 2
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith 57.3 4
TOTAL 2.79

Frasier pitched 3 innings and Stoddard finished the game pitching 2 today.  Managers used relievers very differently than they will in the future.

That’s all for now.  The first rough draft, prototype portal into this data model is almost ready.  This will allow simple lookup for any team, any game, any player, etc. etc. from 1900 – 2020.  

Also, it appears there may be some sort of MLB baseball season in the year 2020. More info on that too.  Until then ….

Cubs Padres Matchup 7/16/1984

Cubs start a three game series against Padres at Wrigley after taking 3 out of 4 from Dodgers over the weekend. Let’s look at these two teams.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
SDN 51 36 8.2 24.3 5.4 19840715
CHN 51 37 52.2 -12.7 3.4 19840715

Padres have pitching, Cubs have hitting, both teams about equal in the wins/loss columns at the top of NL.  Let’s dig down deeper into these teams based upon current rosters.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SDN 15 X 0.462 X -0.57 -0.22 0.61  
CHN 14 X 0.538 X 2.96 -2.38 0.54  

Cubs fielding an almost Tier 3 lineup while Padres’ lineup is slightly underwater.  Both teams’ Relief above water and about equal.  Cubs have a much worse Starter pitching than Padres today.  Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs almost 54% advantage.  Straight home field advantage without knowing anything about either team is 54%. 

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
XXXXX 0.00 90.0 Mark_Thurmond SDN 5 -0.22
-043- -2.14 51.0 Dick_Ruthven CHN 57 -2.38

For some reason Cubs have to pitch Dick Ruthven who is back from 57 days rest.  He didn’t have a very good start to this season.   Mark Thurmond, at WAA=0.00 is exactly seasonal average for MLB players.  At Tier -0.22 he is however very slightly under water based upon the current set of MLB starters playing.  Thurmond finishes strong the rest of this season with a +3.17 WAA ranked #74.  Let’s see what happens today.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
SDN 021000001 4 11 8 0
CHN 000000000 0 5 4 0

Ruthven gives up 3 runs in 8 innings which is a pretty good outing but Cubs bats can’t score against Thurmond.

SDN Lineup 198407160

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
XXXXX -0.8 Al_Wiggins SDN 2B 395
XXXXX 1.22 Tony_Gwynn SDN RF 389
XXXXX 0.78 Steve_Garvey SDN 1B 372
+136+ 1.32 Graig_Nettles SDN 3B 286
XXXXX 0.27 Terry_Kennedy SDN CR 326
XXXXX 0.57 Bobby_Brown SDN CF 84
XXXXX 1.01 Carmelo_Martinez SDN LF 317
-022- -2.65 Garry_Templeton SDN SS 316
XXXXX -0.46 Mark_Thurmond SDN PR 33
TOTAL 1.26

CHN Lineup 198407160

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
XXXXX 0.59 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 351
+024+ 3.23 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 401
+051+ 2.48 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 342
XXXXX 0.61 Keith_Moreland CHN 1B 252
+040+ 2.88 Jody_Davis CHN CR 329
+060+ 2.35 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 310
XXXXX 0.27 Gary_Woods CHN RF 72
-035- -2.25 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 258
XXXXX -0.19 Dick_Ruthven CHN PR 22
TOTAL 9.97

Leon Durham is missing again from this lineup.

SDN START Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
XXXXX 0.00 Mark_Thurmond START 90.0 0
+014+ 3.59 Dave_Dravecky START 90.3 1
XXXXX 0.15 Tim_Lollar START 110.7 2
XXXXX 0.94 Eddie_Whitson START 103.0 3
XXXXX 0.59 Eric_Show START 120.3 4
TOTAL 5.27

We’ll see how this roster got better when playoff coverage starts at the end of this season.

CHN START Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
-043- -2.14 Dick_Ruthven START 51.0 0
-018- -2.73 Dennis_Eckersley START 126.4 1
XXXXX 0.94 Scott_Sanderson START 64.3 2
-058- -1.99 Rick_Sutcliffe START 136.0 3
+087+ 1.91 Steve_Trout START 103.0 4
TOTAL -4.01

We’ll see how this starting rotation gets better with each matchup post through the rest of this season.

SDN RELIEF Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
XXXXX 1.18 Rich_Gossage RELIEF 60.7 0
XXXXX 0.59 Greg_Booker RELIEF 11.3 2
-072- -1.83 Andy_Hawkins RELIEF 83.7 2
+035+ 2.92 Craig_Lefferts RELIEF 59.0 3
XXXXX -0.92 Luis_DeLeon RELIEF 22.7 3
TOTAL 1.94

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
XXXXX -0.35 George_Frazier RELIEF 64.6 0
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith RELIEF 57.3 1
XXXXX -0.10 Warren_Brusstar RELIEF 38.7 2
XXXXX 1.22 Rich_Bordi RELIEF 55.7 3
+091+ 1.83 Tim_Stoddard RELIEF 55.3 4
XXXXX -0.88 Chuck_Rainey RELIEF 88.3 6
TOTAL 1.82

Both these relief squads slightly above average.

That’s all for now.  Cubs start a 4 game weekend series with the Giants on Thursday 7/19.  The next matchup post will have tables organized differently showing Tier Combos better.  Until then ….

Cubs Dodgers Matchup 7/12/1984

Cubs start their first series post All Star break at home against the Dodgers. They just played LAN about two weeks ago in Los Angeles. Let’s look at this matchup.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
CHN 48 36 56.4 -12.7 2.2
LAN 45 43 -39.5 20.3 0.2

The above are beginning of day numbers.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 2 X 0.332 X -1.54 3.34 -0.21  
CHN 12 X 0.668 X 4.00 1.49 0.67  

WAA is simply team wins minus team losses.  At +2 LAN is way behind Padres’ +15 in the NL West.  Cubs in a virtual tie with the Mets at +12.  There are no wild cards this year.

Cubs fielding a maxed Tier 4.00 lineup but Dodgers almost cancel that out with a Tier 3.34 starter.  Cubs have above water Relief.  Tier Combo simulation gives the Cubs almost exactly 2-1 or 2/3 favorites today.  Let’s dig down into these teams.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+017+ 3.55 127.3 Alejandro_Pena LAN 2 3.34
+100+ 1.64 95.0 Steve_Trout CHN 6 1.49

Trout is a halfway decent starter, Pena is top of MLB.  Starters face opposing team lineups.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
LAN 0001010000 2 16 10 1
CHN 2000000001 3 12 8 0

Cubs top of MLB lineup only manages 2 runs against Pena in 8 innings and 1 against their reliever.  That run in the 10th was a Sandberg home runs. Here’s a Tribune headline the next day.

Actually this game was more a pitchers duel but walk off home runs are always exciting.

Let’s look at lineups.

LAN Lineup 198407120

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
-111- -1.28 Steve_Sax LAN 2B 333
XXXXX -0.61 Bill_Russell LAN SS 186
XXXXX 0.9 Pedro_Guerrero LAN RF 362
+096+ 1.74 Mike_Marshall LAN LF 287
XXXXX 0.04 Candy_Maldonado LAN CF 162
XXXXX -0.13 Steve_Yeager LAN CR 146
XXXXX -0.34 Franklin_Stubbs LAN 1B 155
XXXXX -0.76 German_Rivera LAN 3B 57
XXXXX -0.63 Alejandro_Pena LAN PR 47
TOTAL -1.07

This is a below average lineup which concurs with their under water BAT in team status.

CHN Lineup 198407120

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
XXXXX 0.92 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 334
+029+ 3.04 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 384
+055+ 2.35 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 331
+007+ 3.95 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 274
XXXXX 0.36 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 237
+024+ 3.13 Jody_Davis CHN CR 315
+050+ 2.48 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 297
XXXXX -0.04 Dave_Owen CHN SS 53
XXXXX -0.36 Steve_Trout CHN PR 39
TOTAL 15.83

This is a maxed out, top of MLB, Tier 4 lineup.

LAN START Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+017+ 3.55 Alejandro_Pena START 127.3 0
+076+ 1.99 Rick_Honeycutt START 118.7 1
+071+ 2.08 Fernando_Valenzuela START 142.3 3
XXXXX -0.27 Bob_Welch START 106.7 4
XXXXX 0.10 Orel_Hershiser START 71.3 5
TOTAL 7.45

Dodgers have three good starters who would take them far if they had a half way decent set of hitters in their lineup.

CHN START Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+100+ 1.64 Steve_Trout START 95.0 0
-101- -1.36 Rick_Sutcliffe START 131.0 1
-018- -2.67 Rick_Reuschel START 75.3 2
-009- -3.12 Dennis_Eckersley START 119.7 3
+120+ 1.47 Scott_Sanderson START 58.3 4
TOTAL -4.04

Sutcliffe rising from negative value accrued first half of the season.

LAN RELIEF Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+118+ 1.49 Tom_Niedenfuer RELIEF 40.3 0
XXXXX 0.10 Orel_Hershiser RELIEF 71.3 1
XXXXX -0.38 Ken_Howell RELIEF 13.0 1
XXXXX -0.25 Pat_Zachry RELIEF 47.0 1
XXXXX -0.94 Burt_Hooton RELIEF 56.3 6
XXXXX 0.08 Larry_White RELIEF 1.0 6
TOTAL 0.10

Niedenfuer, Dodgers top reliever, gave up the walk off HR to Sandberg in the 10th.  This is Orel Hershiser’s rookie year when they had him pitching relief and starts.  He has a tremendous second half finishing 1984 ranked #25 in MLB.  His career then takes off finishing #3 in 1985 and on and on.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+098+ 1.66 Tim_Stoddard RELIEF 53.3 0
XXXXX -0.23 Lee_Smith RELIEF 53.3 1
XXXXX 0.04 Warren_Brusstar RELIEF 37.7 2
XXXXX -0.86 Chuck_Rainey RELIEF 88.3 2
XXXXX 1.05 Rich_Bordi RELIEF 53.7 4
TOTAL 1.66

Tim Stoddard is riding high now but will sink to even steven by season end. 

That’s all for the wrap up on this 4 game weekend series.  Day off Monday then Padres come into town on 7/16.  Until then ….

Cubs Giants Matchup 7/5/1984

Cubs start a 3 game series with the Giants today.  Let’s see what these two teams have been up to.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 45 35 54.0 -16.7 3.2
SFN 32 47 2.0 -33.7 -14.8

Giants have the second worst record in NL right now mostly due to pitching and unearned runs given up by fielding.

Tier Combos

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 X 0.641 X 3.85 1.26 0.23
SFN -15 X 0.359 X -0.47 1.13 -0.49

Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs a 64% advantage today.  Their lineup is once again close to maxed out Tier 4.  Starters for both teams around equal.  Cubs relief (R column) is above water today close to almost completely average.  WAA column is simply team wins minus team losses.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+122+ 1.36 53.0 Scott_Sanderson CHN 37 1.26
XXXXX 1.22 110.3 Bill_Laskey SFN 5 1.13

Sanderson starts today and he’s ranked with 37 days rest which means he was on DL for awhile.  His return will help Cubs pitching a lot.  Laskey is about equal with Sanderson in value but falls just below the 1.25 WAA cutoff for rank eligibility.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 002205000 9 23 11 0
SFN 000002010 3 13 9 1

Cubs tag Laskey with 4 earned runs in 5 innings pitched and that’s all that was needed for the win today.  Sanderson let’s up 2 in 5 1/3 innings before relief takes over to finish off the Giants.

The baseball-handbook.com web site when it becomes active will allow for a simple click through to this complete box score.

CHN Lineup 198407050

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.09 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 314
+020+ 3.21 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 365
+053+ 2.39 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 312
XXXXX 0.5 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 218
+024+ 3.04 Jody_Davis CHN CR 297
XXXXX -0.1 Thad_Bosley CHN RF 9
+063+ 2.06 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 280
XXXXX -0.23 Dave_Owen CHN 3B 43
XXXXX -0.13 Scott_Sanderson CHN PR 20
TOTAL 11.83

Leon Durham still missing yet the Cubs have an almost maxed out Tier 4 lineup today without him.  When Durham returns they’ll be even better.  Sandberg and Davis floating in the top 25 right now.

SFN Lineup 198407050

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.97 Dan_Gladden SFN CF 41
XXXXX -0.73 Johnnie_LeMaster SFN SS 294
XXXXX -0.71 Al_Oliver SFN 1B 293
+081+ 1.81 Jeff_Leonard SFN LF 302
XXXXX 0.13 Dusty_Baker SFN RF 111
XXXXX -0.08 Joel_Youngblood SFN RF 321
+135+ 1.26 Bob_Brenly SFN CR 252
XXXXX -0.55 Brad_Wellman SFN 2B 113
XXXXX -0.69 Bill_Laskey SFN PR 40
TOTAL 1.41

Hello future Cubs manager Dusty Baker and future Cubs announcer Bob Brenly.

This is a -0.47 Tier lineup even though it has positive total WAA.  As a season progresses league average lineups increase as teams retain their good players and replace their negative value players.

CHN START Roster 19840705

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
+122+ 1.36 Scott_Sanderson START 53.0 0
-070- -1.75 Rick_Sutcliffe START 123.0 1
+104+ 1.55 Steve_Trout START 95.0 2
-008- -2.83 Rick_Reuschel START 71.0 3
-006- -3.07 Dennis_Eckersley START 113.0 4
TOTAL -4.74

Cubs starting rotation just got a lot better with the return of Sanderson and since we’re from the future we know Sutcliffe and Eckersley are much better than their current stats show.   Reuschel will hover around average for the rest of this season finishing ranked #55 in the bottom 100.

Those not from the future wouldn’t know this.

SFN START Roster 19840705

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
XXXXX 1.22 Bill_Laskey START 110.0 0
-071- -1.74 Mark_Davis START 96.0 1
XXXXX -0.67 Jeff_Robinson START 96.0 1
-004- -3.49 Mike_Krukow START 86.0 2
XXXXX 0.78 Atlee_Hammaker START 11.0 4
TOTAL -3.90

This rotation concurs with their poor PITCH in team status.

Now for the first time this season we’ll cover relief as I finally got that code working.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840705

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
XXXXX 0.90 Rich_Bordi RELIEF 50.0 0
XXXXX -0.61 Lee_Smith RELIEF 49.0 1
+095+ 1.68 Tim_Stoddard RELIEF 51.0 2
XXXXX -0.38 George_Frazier RELIEF 62.0 3
XXXXX 0.55 Warren_Brusstar RELIEF 36.0 4
-092- -1.38 Dickie_Noles RELIEF 54.0 6
TOTAL 0.76

The Rest column shows how many days off each pitcher had which is also shown for starters.  There is an algorithm that estimates relief rosters and right now Cubs seem to be carrying only 6 relievers.

Current average relief staff is at +0.38 WAA so the Cubs are slightly above that.  In the next 35 years relief squad value will increase and most teams will carry 8 relievers who all work every other day.  More on this later.

SFN RELIEF Roster 19840705

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
XXXXX 0.69 Gary_Lavelle RELIEF 52.0 0
XXXXX 0.06 Frank_Williams RELIEF 57.0 0
XXXXX -0.19 Randy_Lerch RELIEF 45.0 0
XXXXX -0.13 Greg_Minton RELIEF 62.0 1
XXXXX -0.80 Jeff_Cornell RELIEF 24.0 1
TOTAL -0.37

And the Giants have a slightly below average relief squad, all 5 of whom have been busy the last two days.  The above looks abnormal so will  double check this for bugs and update if necessary.

That’s all for now.  All Star game approaching on July 10th and the final part of our 1984 All Star picks covering starters and relievers coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Padres Matchup 7/2/1984

Cubs start a 3 game series with the Padres today in San Diego. Let’s look at these two teams.

NL 19840701

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
SDN 45 31 19.4 2.7 5.6
CHN 43 34 61.9 -23.3 3.6
NYN 40 33 -71.1 46.7 -3.4
PHI 42 35 40.4 10.7 -26.4
ATL 43 37 29.9 -9.3 0.6
LAN 41 40 -32.1 12.7 -3.4

The above shows the top 6 teams of 12 in the National League as of beginning of today ( final results from yesterday ).  San Diego has a commanding lead in the NL West while Cubs are fighting it out with Mets, Phillies, and Braves in the NL East.

Cubs struggle with pitching but lead the league in BAT.  Padres have above average hitting and slightly above average pitching.  We’ll see this in more detail below.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 X 0.438 X 3.89 -3.20 -0.82  
SDN 14 X 0.562 X 0.43 1.99 -0.52  

The WAA column is real team Wins minus Losses.  It is the same type of value assigned to players.  Cubs starting an almost maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup again as we’ll see below.  Their starter ( S Column ) is almost maxed out in the other direction.  Tier combinations are explained here.

Tier Combo simulation gives San Diego a 56% probability of winning today based upon the above tier numbers.  

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-007- -2.98 65.7 Rick_Reuschel CHN 5 -3.20
+064+ 2.08 69.3 Dave_Dravecky SDN 5 1.99

Uh oh.  Rick Reuschel is pitching.  Ironically 1984 turns out to be Reuschel’s second worst year of his career with 1974, 10 years earlier, being his worst.  A simple click through to easily see all careers mentioned here is forthcoming.  

Dave dravecky is having a good season so far and at almost Tier 2.00 exactly he is one standard deviation above all MLB starting pitchers as of the rosters today.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 000001000 1 8 5 3
SDN 10000130 5 11 10 0

Reuschel gets tagged for 2 earned runs in 6 innings which isn’t bad.  Dravecky only allows 1 run in 6 and Padres win this one.  Cubs commit 3 errors which led to one unearned run.

CHN Lineup 198407020

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.13 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 301
+012+ 3.46 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 352
+041+ 2.62 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 300
XXXXX 0.38 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 206
+014+ 3.36 Jody_Davis CHN CR 285
+054+ 2.27 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 273
XXXXX 0.08 Gary_Woods CHN RF 58
-062- -1.76 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 232
XXXXX -0.1 Rick_Reuschel CHN PR 29
TOTAL 11.44

This is a top of MLB lineup and close to Tier 4, or two standard deviations above league average.  Soon there will be a clickable option to drill down into all MLB lineups used to make this calculation.

Ryne Sandberg once again rising in the ranks and almost in the top ten with his teammate Leon Durham.  Jody Davis up there as well.  Leon Durham must be hurt.

SDN Lineup 198407020

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.05 Al_Wiggins SDN 2B 349
+101+ 1.53 Tony_Gwynn SDN RF 341
+111+ 1.45 Steve_Garvey SDN 1B 327
XXXXX 0.99 Graig_Nettles SDN 3B 260
XXXXX 0.8 Terry_Kennedy SDN CR 291
XXXXX 1.09 Kevin_McReynolds SDN CF 273
XXXXX 0.97 Carmelo_Martinez SDN LF 274
-031- -2.23 Garry_Templeton SDN SS 281
XXXXX -0.23 Dave_Dravecky SDN PR 15
TOTAL 3.32

This is a slightly above average lineup at this point in the season.

CHN START Roster 19840702

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
-007- -2.98 Rick_Reuschel START 65.0 0
-006- -3.09 Dennis_Eckersley START 113.0 1
XXXXX -1.05 Chuck_Rainey START 85.0 2
-020- -2.41 Rick_Sutcliffe START 115.0 3
+105+ 1.49 Steve_Trout START 90.0 4
TOTAL -8.04

Since we’re from the future we know this gets better — and that rise will propel Cubs past Padres for the best record in National League by the end of this year. 

This sudden rise in above pitchers will cause handicapping by this data model to under value Cubs’ starters.  It’s easy to look back and say it was obvious Sutcliffe would literally pitch like Cy Young from now until the end of the season but no one can predict the future.

SDN START Roster 19840702

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+064+ 2.08 Dave_Dravecky START 69.0 0
XXXXX 0.84 Eddie_Whitson START 88.0 1
XXXXX 0.21 Tim_Lollar START 98.0 2
XXXXX 0.08 Eric_Show START 109.0 3
XXXXX 0.08 Mark_Thurmond START 80.0 4
TOTAL 3.29

This is a slightly above average rotation — enough to win NL West this year.  Probably see some of these guys in the playoffs.

That’s all for now.  Our picks for All Star catchers and outfieldiers coming next.  Until then ….