Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Cardinals Matchup

Cubs Cardinals start a weekend series tonight at Wrigley.  Let’s see what SLN has been up to these last two weeks.

SLN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 78 61 -39.1 94.8 8.1 20190905
SLN 85 67 -33.5 114.7 10.4 20190919

They went from +17 to +18 gaining a game.  PITCH improving and now near top of MLB.  BAT and UR also up a little.

SLN CHN 09_19_7:15_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 18 0.512 0.523 102 -0.67 3.52 3.08
CHN 12 0.512 0.477 93 0.90 2.69 2.47

Cubs have a better lineup.  Cardinals exceed in real team WAA , Starter, and Relief.  Vegas is don’t know flip a coin.  TC Sim has this game around 50/50 too.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 6.17 0.659 174.3 3.52
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 4.91 0.633 165.7 2.69

Both starters very good.

SLN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+018+ 6.13 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 174.3
+046+ 4.68 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 166.7
+120+ 2.75 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 162.3
XXXXX 1.09 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 176.3
XXXXX -0.59 Michael_Wacha_SLN 121.0
Total 14.06 0.579

This is an excellent starting rotation that could propel them through NLDS if they get there.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+059+ 3.95 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 68.7
+144+ 2.29 John_Brebbia_SLN 69.0
XXXXX 1.68 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 31.7
XXXXX 1.66 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 43.3
XXXXX 1.36 John_Gant_SLN 64.3
XXXXX 0.65 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 45.7
XXXXX 0.65 Andrew_Miller_SLN 49.7
XXXXX 0.38 Tyler_Webb_SLN 49.0
XXXXX 0.29 Junior_Fernandez_SLN 8.7
XXXXX -0.21 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 17.7
XXXXX -0.92 Dominic_Leone_SLN 36.7
XXXXX -1.18 Mike_Mayers_SLN 16.7
Total 10.60 TIER=3.08

Tiering is done on top 8 and this relief staff, at Tier +3.08,  is around 1.5 standard deviations above league average.

SLN Lineup 09182019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.59 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 522
-146- -1.74 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 542
+193+ 1.91 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 630
+065+ 3.82 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 498
-145- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 449
XXXXX -1.24 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 404
XXXXX 1.01 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 620
XXXXX 0.17 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 295
XXXXX 0.00 Adam_Wainwright_SLN none 0
Total 1.53 TIER=-0.67

Lineup value for both teams taken from yesterday.  This is a below average lineup based on current rosters and reflects their below average BAT in team status.

Last regular season Cubs status coming tomorrow.  Until then ….

Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs Reds started their series yesterday with the Cubs winning.  Let’s look at this Reds team.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 56 61 -34.6 59.7 16.0 20190813
CIN 70 81 -55.8 48.1 16.5 20190917

In the last 5 weeks Reds went from -5 to -11 losing 6 games which is pretty much a giving up for the season record.  BAT tanked even further and PITCH declined.

CIN CHN 09_17_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN -11 0.408 0.424 104 -1.38 3.77 -0.61
CHN 14 0.608 0.576 94 1.12 0.88 2.31

Cubs have better seasonal team WAA, Lineup and Relief.  Reds have a better starter pitching tonight.  Vegas and TC Sim very similar for this game.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Sonny_Gray_CIN 6.61 0.682 163.7 3.77
Yu_Darvish_CHN 2.16 0.560 163.3 0.88

Sonny Gray pitched well this year so far.  Darvish is also pitching well considering how he started the year.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+014+ 6.61 Sonny_Gray_CIN 163.7
+027+ 5.48 Luis_Castillo_CIN 178.7
+151+ 2.21 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 155.7
XXXXX 0.63 Trevor_Bauer_CIN 206.0
XXXXX -1.05 Alex_Wood_CIN 35.7
-194- -1.55 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 116.3
Total 12.33 0.565

Gray is their best starter now surpassing Castillo.; both having excellent years.  With expanded rosters Reds fielding 6 starters.  Their top 5 make a pretty decent starting rotation for any team.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+125+ 2.58 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 78.0
XXXXX 1.62 Amir_Garrett_CIN 53.0
XXXXX 0.86 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 59.7
XXXXX 0.50 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 62.3
XXXXX 0.17 Matt_Bowman_CIN 27.3
XXXXX 0 Keury_Mella 0
XXXXX -0.17 Lucas_Sims_CIN 38.0
XXXXX -0.17 Joel_Kuhnel_CIN 8.3
XXXXX -0.17 Jimmy_Herget_CIN 4.3
XXXXX -1.05 Sal_Romano_CIN 10.0
-135- -1.91 [A-Z].J._Alaniz_CIN 13.7
-034- -3.42 Kevin_Gausman_CIN 97.7
Total -1.16 TIER=-0.61

This is a below average relief squad.   A negative tier number means even their top 8 are below league average based on current rosters.

CIN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.44 Josh_VanMeter_CIN LF-2B-1B 235
-094- -2.27 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 566
+093+ 3.13 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 616
+180+ 1.95 Aristides_Aquino_CIN RF 176
-141- -1.83 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN CR 331
XXXXX -0.94 Phillip_Ervin_CIN LF-CF-RF 218
XXXXX -0.32 Brian_O’Grady_CIN BAT 32
-080- -2.42 Jose_Peraza_CIN 2B-SS-LF 361
XXXXX 0.00 Sonny_Gray_CIN none 0
Total -3.14 TIER=-1.38

This is quite a mixed bag of a lineup.  A tier number of -1.38  means this lineup is more than 1/2 standard deviation below league average.   This concurs with BAT in their team status.

Not much more to say about this other than Cubs need each and every game from now until  the end of the season in order to maintain pace with SLN and other NL teams fighting for wild card spots.  Historical playoff season series coming next as well as the final regular season Cubs status.  Until then ….

Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs Pirates meet once again.  Let’s look at these Pirates.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 50 70 -17.3 -50.9 -19.8 20190816
PIT 65 82 -6.9 -71.8 -21.4 20190913

Pirates went from -20 to -17 gaining 3 games in the last 4 weeks which is pretty good.  Their PITCH however tanked further which was compensated by an increase in BAT.   Unearned runs above average (UR) is horrible. Cubs may get some free runs this series.

PIT CHN 09_13_4:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PIT -17 0.357 0.423 X -0.03 0.09 1.58
CHN 10 0.667 0.577 X 0.43 -0.45 1.99

TC Sim has the Pirates rated much higher than Vegas today even though both systems have Cubs heavily favored.  Vegas is paying $180 on a $100 PIT bet.  L, S, and R columns are all fairly equal.  Cubs have a big advantage in deltaWAA=27 , the difference in WAA between the two teams.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Steven_Brault_PIT 0.92 0.541 100.3 0.09
Jon_Lester_CHN 0.13 0.504 155.7 -0.45

Lester has had some bad outings this season.  Both pitchers hovering around league average.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.92 Steven_Brault_PIT 100.3
XXXXX 0.10 James_Marvel_PIT 5.0
XXXXX 0.02 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 159.3
XXXXX -0.57 Dario_Agrazal_PIT 62.3
-106- -2.10 Trevor_Williams_PIT 131.3
-033- -3.34 Mitch_Keller_PIT 38.0
Total -4.97 0.455

Pirates running with 6 starters in expanded rosters.  This is a pretty terrible rotation which shouldn’t surprise based on PITCH in their team status.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+053+ 4.03 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 60.0
XXXXX 1.72 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 66.0
XXXXX 1.24 Keone_Kela_PIT 25.7
XXXXX 1.09 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT 60.0
XXXXX 1.05 Michael_Feliz_PIT 51.7
XXXXX 0.99 Wei-Chung_Wang_PIT 29.7
XXXXX -0.40 Yacksel_Rios_PIT 8.0
XXXXX -0.50 Kyle_Crick_PIT 49.0
XXXXX -0.92 Yefry_Ramirez_PIT 19.0
XXXXX -1.20 Clay_Holmes_PIT 44.3
-140- -1.85 Alex_McRae_PIT 20.3
-098- -2.14 Parker_Markel_PIT 15.3
-057- -2.79 Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT 29.3
Total 0.32 TIER=1.58

At tier 1.58 this staff is well above average which contradicts PITCH in team status.  This is because they have several well above average relievers and with expanded rosters their below average players don’t drag the staff down.

PIT Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.59 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 466
+133+ 2.37 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF-CF 506
XXXXX -0.53 Melky_Cabrera_PIT RF-LF 374
+015+ 6.30 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 610
XXXXX 1.22 Jose_Osuna_PIT RF-1B-3B 221
XXXXX -0.34 Pablo_Reyes_PIT RF-LF 111
-158- -1.74 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 552
-110- -2.08 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 304
XXXXX 0.00 Steven_Brault_PIT none 0
Total 4.61 TIER=-0.03

This is almost a league average lineup exactly which agrees with BAT in team status.

That is all for now.  One more regular season playoff horse race until the actual playoffs coming in a few days.  Until then ….

Cubs Padres Matchup

Cubs Padres start a series today.  Let’s look at this Padres team.

SDN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SDN 55 62 -38.7 2.1 3.7 20190812
SDN 66 76 -76.3 9.8 3.3 20190909

In the last 4 weeks BAT tanked even further and Padres went from -7 to -10.  Losing 3 games a month is par for the course for last place teams.  That Manny Machado acquisition hasn’t helped their hitting.

CHN SDN 09_09_10:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.583 0.608 104 -0.25 2.32 2.16
SDN -10 0.435 0.392 90 -1.90 -0.52 2.39

Cubs lead in lineup and starter and about tied with relief.  Vegas and TC Sim are pretty much in agreement on this game.  Vegas has the Cubs 58% , TC Sim at around 61% favorites to win.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 4.22 0.623 154.0 2.32
Cal_Quantrill_SDN 0.06 0.503 90.7 -0.52

Hendricks a top notch pitcher but well below max tier of 4.00.

SDN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+085+ 3.15 Chris_Paddack_SDN 129.7
+114+ 2.60 Joey_Lucchesi_SDN 150.0
XXXXX 0.84 Dinelson_Lamet_SDN 57.0
XXXXX 0.55 Eric_Lauer_SDN 136.7
XXXXX 0.04 Cal_Quantrill_SDN 90.7
Total 7.18 0.557

San Diego has a decent starting rotation which is unusual based on past years for them.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+044+ 4.49 Kirby_Yates_SDN 57.7
+181+ 1.89 Craig_Stammen_SDN 74.7
+200+ 1.70 Luis_Perdomo_SDN 63.0
XXXXX 1.43 Andres_Munoz_SDN 21.3
XXXXX 0.84 Michel_Baez_SDN 19.7
XXXXX 0.36 David_Bednar_SDN 3.3
XXXXX 0.23 Ronald_Bolanos_SDN 6.0
XXXXX -0.32 Eric_Yardley_SDN 3.0
XXXXX -0.50 Trey_Wingenter_SDN 46.3
XXXXX -0.53 Matt_Strahm_SDN 107.0
XXXXX -0.76 Javy_Guerra_SDN 0.7
XXXXX -0.78 Robbie_Erlin_SDN 49.7
-070- -2.50 Gerardo_Reyes_SDN 16.0
-068- -2.52 Nick_Margevicius_SDN 55.0
Total 3.03 TIER=2.39

Their tier number for relief is high because, for now, this model only takes the top 8 relievers.  This raises relief league average due to expanded rosters.  New guys come in at 0 pushing down negative relievers.  Right now league average for relief is at +5.8.  At the end of August it was around +3.6.  They have three relievers ranked with Kirby Yates in the top 50.

SDN Lineup 9/8/1019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.46 Greg_Garcia_SDN 2B-3B 304
XXXXX -0.34 Nick_Martini_SDN BAT 36
XXXXX -0.04 Manny_Machado_SDN 3B-SS 583
XXXXX 0.82 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 586
XXXXX -1.24 Wil_Myers_SDN LF-CF 418
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_Naylor_SDN LF-RF 219
-074- -2.27 Austin_Hedges_SDN CR 305
XXXXX -1.05 Luis_Urias_SDN 2B-SS 167
XXXXX 0.00 Eric_Lauer_SDN none 0
Total -4.94 TIER=-1.90

We don’t have to worry much about expanded rosters with lineups because they are what they are.  SDN has close to a -2 tier lineup (their lineup from yesterday), almost a complete standard deviation below league average.  This should be expected from their well below average BAT in team status based on seasonal runs scored.

That is all for now.  A new Cubs status coming soon as they move sideways into the end of a season.  Sideways is better than tanking but it usually does not get a team into playoff season.  Until then ….

Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs Brewers start a weekend series today.  Let’s see what the Brewers have been up to since 4 weeks ago when the Cubs last played them.

MIL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIL 57 53 9.3 -30.1 5.8 20190802
MIL 68 65 -13.6 -27.3 5.2 20190830

Brewers went from +4 to +3 losing a game.  BAT tanked and PITCH remained around the same as well as Unearned Runs above average (UR).

MIL CHN 08_30_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIL 3 0.444 0.449 101 -0.71 -0.32 -0.75
CHN 11 0.574 0.551 96 -0.24 0.61 1.41

Cubs have better real team WAA, around the same under water lineup, betters starter and much better relief.  Tier numbers in L, S, and R columns get fed into simulation and the result aligns closely with Vegas.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.42 0.517 112.0 -0.32
Jose_Quintana_CHN 1.70 0.552 146.7 0.61

Quintana is a better starter than Anderson this season.

MIL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+155+ 1.99 Adrian_Houser_MIL 87.0
+166+ 1.87 Zach_Davies_MIL 131.7
XXXXX 0.42 Chase_Anderson_MIL 112.0
XXXXX 0.25 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 64.3
XXXXX -0.08 Jordan_Lyles_MIL 114.7
Total 4.45 0.539

This is a slightly above average starting rotation.  Starting rotations are not tiered.  Individual starters are tiered for use in simulation.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.29 Josh_Hader_MIL 59.7
XXXXX 1.36 Junior_Guerra_MIL 71.0
XXXXX 0.78 Alex_Claudio_MIL 53.3
XXXXX 0.08 Ray_Black_MIL 6.7
XXXXX 0 Devin_Williams 8.0
XXXXX -0.27 Jay_Jackson_MIL 19.3
XXXXX -0.32 Matt_Albers_MIL 55.0
-158- -1.70 Drew_Pomeranz_MIL 90.0
Total 2.22 TIER=-0.75

This is an under water relief staff.  Hader ranked in top 200 and ranked top 100 for much of this season.

MIL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-049- -2.75 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 536
+197+ 1.64 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 292
+020+ 5.33 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 532
XXXXX 0.80 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 435
XXXXX -0.53 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR-1B 511
XXXXX -0.88 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 153
XXXXX -1.05 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-SS 188
-136- -1.81 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 458
XXXXX 0.00 Chase_Anderson_MIL none 0
Total 0.75 TIER=-0.71

This is a below average lineup based on league averages using current rosters.  Yelich having another stellar year.  Last season he gained +3.5 WAA in September to win MVP.

That is all for now.  End of month 5 Cubs status and playoff horse race coming next.  Until then ….