Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Pirates 8/1/2020

It’s back to the future when the Cubs play Pirates again after beating them yesterday even after another relief meltdown. In a normal season July and August are in the wheelhouse for this data model with regards to handicapping. These 2 months are like the boring parts of an Indy 500 or golf tournament. Contestants pace themselves and there is enough data to discern the great from the good from the mediocres from the not so good from the ones bringing up the rear. This is true for team records as well as players. This model beats Vegas the most in July and August.

April and May there is a general lack of data where both teams and players are bunched together making it difficult to discern. In September expanded rosters cause teams way ahead and way behind to work the new guys and not care so much about winning. This model is still ahead of Vegas in September but not as much.

In this bizarre pandemic season we’re a little over a week into it which is like the second week of April in a normal season. We don’t even start compiling a league until after two weeks data are in the books.

By the time we can reliably rank players the season will be half over this year and 3/4 over when handicap can begin so this presents a problem. Somehow Vegas handicaps from day one and the only way that can be done is by relying on historical data.

It has been decided, rather arbitrarily, to use three year split data for players to compile league rosters and lineups and enter them into the simulator. Today we’ll cover this game as if it were a normal mid season game with a full dataset to work from.

Forget the standings for now let’s get to the handicapping.

PIT CHN 08_01_8:15_PM

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PIT -33 0.377 0.330 87 -1.44 -1.69 -3.96
CHN 55 0.643 0.670 104 1.89 -1.63 1.40

Cubs won 55 games more than they lost in 2017.2018, and 2019.  Pittsburgh lost 33 more than they won during that period.  Vegas giving Cubs a 64.3% chance of winning today and TC Sim has them higher at 67% which translates into an Expected Value on a 100 unit bet to be 104 which isn’t enough so this game is a discard.

Cubs have a much better lineup, both Starters not so good as we’ll see below, and PIT relief is almost maxed out -4.00 in the wrong direction.  Cubs relief above average.  All of this is based on 3 year data which means Craig Kimbrel is their best reliever. 🙂

Starters

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Mitch_Keller_PIT -2.92 0.226 48.0 -1.69
Tyler_Chatwood_TOT -2.75 0.462 328.1 -1.63

Mitch Keller is new to MLB and came up from minors last season and didn’t pitch so well.  He pitched very well in AAA last season however.   Normally new starters coming in mid season cause the entire game to be discarded.  At 48 IP over 3 years means Mitch Keller is close to being an unknown quantity right now.

PIT Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.55 Adam_Frazier_PIT LF-2B-RF 1414
XXXXX -1.60 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 628
+072+ 8.00 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 1816
XXXXX 0.48 Colin_Moran_PIT BAT-3B-2B 980
XXXXX 1.76 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF-CF 546
XXXXX 0.65 Gregory_Polanco_PIT RF-LF 1113
XXXXX -0.76 Phillip_Evans_PIT BAT 61
-121- -3.97 Jarrod_Dyson_PIT CF-LF-RF 1079
XXXXX -1.01 John_Ryan_Murphy_PIT BAT-CR 300
Total 2.00 TIER=-1.44

Josh Bell had a breakout season last year ranked #19 in MLB according to this data model.

CHN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+094+ 6.97 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF 1756
+040+ 11.09 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B-2B 1969
+025+ 14.26 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B 1714
+149+ 5.00 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 1606
XXXXX 2.90 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR 1381
XXXXX 1.66 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF 1559
XXXXX 1.03 Nico_Hoerner_CHN SS 82
+150+ 4.98 Ian_Happ_CHN CF-2B-LF-RF-3B 1031
XXXXX -1.43 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B 545
Total 46.46 TIER=1.89

Cubs still have a lot of good players which is why they’re hitting so well this season so far.  Rank is for all MLB players who made an appearance any time during last 3 seasons.  Cubs have 5 players ranked, 3 in the top 100 in this lineup which is very good.  Tier 1.89 means they’re almost a complete standard deviation above league average for lineups as of today.   Perhaps in a future post we’ll cover top MLB lineups.

That is all for now.  The 1984 Cubs start a new series with the Expos tomorrow.  Until then ….

Cubs Phillies Matchup 7/30/1984

Today the Cubs start a 3 game series with the Phillies in Chicago after taking 3 out of 4 from Mets in New York over the weekend. Let’s look at this matchup on this day.

NL East 19840729

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 59 40 -41.5 49.5 -8.9
CHN 59 43 59.8 -12.5 8.1
PHI 55 46 32.8 26.5 -29.9
WAS 50 51 -53.7 48.5 10.1
SLN 50 53 -40.5 14.5 1.1
PIT 44 60 -37.7 54.5 3.1

Phillies 3 1/2 games behind Cubs ( 7 WAA ) so this series is important for them.  Cubs gaining on the Mets so they need to keep winning too.  BAT, PITCH, and UR all about the same as the last time these two teams played a week ago. 

Tier Combo

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PHI 9 X 0.428 X 2.21 -2.56 2.13  
CHN 16 X 0.572 X 4.00 -2.76 0.79  

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 57.2 % chance of winning today.  Both starters are equally under water so this game could be considered whatever they call the opposite of a pitching duel.  Both lineups well above current league average for lineups with Cubs once again maxed out, top of MLB.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-038- -2.48 115.3 Charles_Hudson PHI 5 -2.56
-025- -2.69 140.3 Dennis_Eckersley CHN 5 -2.76

Dennis Eckersley starts a tremendous run with this game.  In the next two months he will add +4 WAA which is a top of MLB rate.  Unfortunately like golf, this data model does not grant mulligans.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
PHI 100000010 2 16 10 0
CHN 10000110 3 11 8 1

Eckersley gives up 1 run in 7 innings and Cubs’ relief gives up the other run.  Cubs tier 4.00 lineup only scores 3 runs which is below average but enough to win this game which is all that matters in baseball.

PHI Lineup 198407300

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
+126+ 1.55 Juan_Samuel 2B 465
+148+ 1.32 Von_Hayes CF 344
+013+ 4.24 Mike_Schmidt 3B 415
+135+ 1.43 Sixto_Lezcano RF 213
+154+ 1.28 Len_Matuszek 1B 191
+086+ 2.08 Ozzie_Virgil CR 315
XXXXX -0.94 Glenn_Wilson LF 291
-071- -1.85 Ivan_DeJesus SS 354
XXXXX -0.32 Charles_Hudson PR 42
TOTAL 8.79

CHN Lineup 198407300

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.53 Henry_Cotto CF 80
+016+ 4.16 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 462
+026+ 3.51 Gary_Matthews LF 393
+003+ 4.85 Leon_Durham 1B 342
XXXXX 0.92 Keith_Moreland RF 311
+053+ 2.65 Jody_Davis CR 384
+064+ 2.52 Ron_Cey 3B 357
-023- -2.73 Larry_Bowa SS 291
XXXXX -0.44 Dennis_Eckersley PR 29
TOTAL 14.91

Sandberg and Durham rising in the ranks.  Durham must have had a very productive series with the Mets as he is now ranked #3 in MLB.

PHI START Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-038- -2.48 Charles_Hudson 115.3 0
+038+ 3.19 Jerry_Koosman 144.0 1
-037- -2.49 Shane_Rawley 79.0 2
+066+ 2.39 Steve_Carlton 156.3 3
XXXXX -0.65 Kevin_Gross 90.7 9
TOTAL -0.04

Two very good starters and two very bad starters.  Phillies must have been on a 4 pitcher rotation.  Kevin Gross pitched in relief today and will fall off this list tomorrow.

CHN START Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-025- -2.67 Dennis_Eckersley 140.4 0
XXXXX 1.07 Scott_Sanderson 81.0 1
+150+ 1.30 Steve_Trout 121.7 1
XXXXX -1.14 Rick_Sutcliffe 159.3 2
-094- -1.60 Dick_Ruthven 72.3 3
TOTAL -3.04

Cubs starting rotation getting better which is hard to see from a static snapshot like this.

PHI RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -0.65 Kevin_Gross 90.7 0
+046+ 2.96 Larry_Andersen 57.7 1
+080+ 2.14 Al_Holland 74.7 2
XXXXX -0.17 Don_Carman 5.3 5
XXXXX 0.53 Bill_Campbell 61.0 5
TOTAL 4.81

This is a Tier 2+ relief squad or a little more than one standard deviation above current league average for team relief.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith 65.3 0
+092+ 1.99 Tim_Stoddard 63.0 0
XXXXX -0.59 George_Frazier 72.3 2
XXXXX 1.01 Rich_Bordi 59.0 5
TOTAL 2.51

Reuschel must be hurt because he disappeared from both relief and start rosters.  With Reuschel gone Cubs relief rises to above average.

Cubs lose tomorrow and win the next day taking 2 out of 3 from Phillies. Mets lose 3 in a row and by the start of the next series with Expos Cubs will be first in NL East by a very slim margin.  A 4 game series with Expo starts Thursday August 2 which we’ll cover with another matchup post.  Until then ….

Cubs Mets Matchup 7/27/1984

Today is Friday July 27, 1984 and Cubs, after taking 2 out of 3 from the Phillies, travel to New York for a 4 game series which culminates in a scheduled double header on Sunday.  Let’s look at these two teams.

Below are NL East standings as of end of day yesterday 7/26.

NL East 19840726

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 58 37 -37.4 54.6 -5.1
CHN 56 42 51.0 -16.4 7.9
PHI 54 44 35.5 29.6 -30.1
WAS 48 50 -57.0 46.6 8.9
SLN 47 53 -41.9 10.6 -0.1
PIT 44 57 -33.0 55.6 2.9

Cubs 3 1/2 games behind Mets who suffer from bad hitting but very good PITCH.  Cubs are the opposite but their PITCH is less bad than Mets’ BAT. Seasonal run differential can be deceptive late in a season as teams contending for playoffs make acquisitions to fix problems they know they have.  

Tier Combo

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 14 X 0.446 X 4.00 -1.83 -0.74  
NYN 21 X 0.554 X -1.12 2.49 3.44  

The WAA column is simply team wins minus team losses defined in this data model as WAA’; the same value used for players.  Mets are 7 WAA ahead of Cubs.  Divide that by 2 and you get 3 1/2 which is number of games they are ahead in first place.  Not too complicated.

L, S, and R columns are tier numbers representing team Lineups, Starters, and Relief squads for today’s game.  Cubs starting a massive maxed out tier 4.00 lineup which is more than 2 standard deviations above league average for lineups as of beginning of today.

Mets starting a much better pitcher than Cubs and have much better relief. 

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-082- -1.64 66.0 Dick_Ruthven CHN 6 -1.83
+043+ 2.96 127.0 Dwight_Gooden NYN 7 2.49

Every 2 tier numbers is one complete standard deviation above league average for the complete set of MLB starters.  Gooden is more than that today.  Ruthven is almost a complete standard deviation below current league average. 

Pitchers however face opposing lineups, not opposing pitchers — except when they’re batting in a lineup.  Gooden must deal with a lineup better than him.  Ruthven faces a much weaker lineup, yet that lineup is still better.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 100000000 1 7 4 0
NYN 10000010 2 8 8 0

This is commonly known as a pitchers duel.  Each superior lineup had trouble scoring against the pitcher they faced.

Gooden pitches 8 giving up one run, Jesse Orosco in for the save in the ninth.  Ruthven gives up 2 in 6 1/3 and Tim Stoddard finishes the game for Cubs.  

CHN Lineup 198407270

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.73 Bob_Dernier CF 395
+020+ 3.59 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 445
+030+ 3.25 Gary_Matthews LF 381
+012+ 4.30 Leon_Durham 1B 325
XXXXX 0.90 Keith_Moreland RF 294
+063+ 2.39 Jody_Davis CR 368
+073+ 2.27 Ron_Cey 3B 345
-022- -2.71 Larry_Bowa SS 282
XXXXX -0.27 Dick_Ruthven PR 26
TOTAL 14.45

Leon Durham back in the clean up spot but it didn’t matter much today. This lineup scores 11 runs tomorrow however.

NYN Lineup 198407270

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -1.18 Wally_Backman 2B 319
XXXXX -0.65 Mookie_Wilson CF 372
+130+ 1.43 Keith_Hernandez 1B 395
+074+ 2.25 Darryl_Strawberry RF 374
XXXXX 1.11 George_Foster LF 360
XXXXX -0.36 Hubie_Brooks 3B 364
-110- -1.36 Mike_Fitzgerald CR 221
XXXXX -0.29 Rafael_Santana SS 30
XXXXX -0.71 Dwight_Gooden PR 48
TOTAL 0.24

At 0.24 total WAA this is an almost completely even steven lineup based upon seasonal numbers.  As a season progresses the league average for lineups goes up as teams replace negative value players with new guys, thus making this lineup below average with a tier number of -1.12, a little over 1/2 standard deviation below current league average for lineups.  This concurs with Mets’ negative BAT in team status above.

CHN START Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-082- -1.64 Dick_Ruthven 66.0 0
-032- -2.52 Dennis_Eckersley 140.4 2
XXXXX 0.69 Scott_Sanderson 73.3 3
XXXXX -1.20 Rick_Sutcliffe 153.0 4
XXXXX 0.65 Steve_Trout 112.7 5
TOTAL -4.02

These are the current set of starters for Cubs.  Sutcliffe still climbing out of the hole he dug the first couple of months with Cleveland.  He pitched well against Phillies.  Eckersley is also starting to rise which you can’t see from this static snapshot.  Since we’re from the future we know what happens these next few months which will unfold more with each of these matchup reports.

NYN START Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+043+ 2.96 Dwight_Gooden 127.0 0
XXXXX 0.42 Sid_Fernandes 18.3 2
-046- -2.20 Bruce_Berenyi 101.0 3
+088+ 2.04 Walt_Terrell 128.3 4
+093+ 1.95 Ron_Darling 127.3 5
TOTAL 5.17

Mets have 3 solid starters which compensates for their under water lineups.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+094+ 1.93 Tim_Stoddard 61.3 0
XXXXX 1.09 Rich_Bordi 59.0 2
XXXXX 0.13 Lee_Smith 62.3 4
-016- -2.94 Rick_Reuschel 77.3 5
XXXXX -0.63 George_Frazier 71.3 5
XXXXX -0.23 Warren_Brusstar 42.0 5
TOTAL -0.65

Reuschel dragged this relief squad into negative territory.  He’s on 5 day rest so Frey may make him a starter again soon.

NYN RELIEF Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+051+ 2.62 Jesse_Orosco 56.3 0
XXXXX 0.32 Ed_Lynch 86.3 2
+150+ 1.28 Brent_Gaff 34.7 3
+019+ 3.76 Doug_Sisk 64.3 3
XXXXX 0.25 Tom_Gorman 35.0 3
TOTAL 8.23

This is a very good near top of MLB set of relievers which also concurs with Mets’ excellent PITCH in team status above.

That is all for now.  Cubs lose today but since we’re from the future we know they take the next 3 against the Mets sweeping the Sunday double header only allowing Mets 1 run in both games.  This series will bring the Cubs within 1 1/2 games ( 3 WAA ) of first place in NL East.  

Phillies come to Chicago on Monday 7/30 which we’ll cover next with another look at this matchup.  Until then ….

Update from the year 2020:

On this day in the year 2020 Cubs travel to Cincinnati to start a 4 game series.  Normally Aprils are when we fix broken scripts and get all the data moving smoothly again for ranking and handicapping in May.  

We have complete opening rosters for Cubs and all teams and ready to run a playoff horse race.   Vegas lines are also coming in even though they changed their API very slightly for the first time in 5 years of doing this.  It wasn’t much of a change so the data is coming in and everything seems to be working again.

Cubs are slight favorites at 52.6%, Reds at 49.8% tonight according to Vegas. Still tweaking the simulator to take 3 year split data.  I was going to rush to get all of this online but it appears the entire MLB season could be in jeopardy only 4 days into this shortened season.  This means there may be no reason to rush.

If things settle down perhaps a current season matchup post will happen when Cubs play Pirates on 7/31.

So we’ll see.  In the meantime, since we are from the future, we know the 1984 season finishes to completion and well into October without any controversy except  for that one team that loses home field advantage in the playoffs because they can’t play night games at home.

End of Update

Cubs Phillies Matchup 7/23/1984

Cubs start a three game set against Phillies in Philadelphia.  Cubs are currently trailing the Mets by 2 1/2 games ( 5 WAA ) in NL East.  Phillies are right behind the Cubs

NL East

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYN 55 37 -47.0 55.8 -4.6 19840722
CHN 54 41 49.4 -18.2 6.4 19840722
PHI 53 42 38.9 32.8 -31.6 19840722

Phillies have very good BAT and PITCH numbers based upon seasonal run differential.  Their fielding is dragging them down however with an astonishing -31.6 UR which is #1 worst in MLB.  Those of us from the future know this cripples the Phillies turning them into an 81-81, even steven, WAA=0 team by season end.  Unearned runs are real and count equally with earned runs.

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 13 X 0.537 X 4.00 -1.57 -0.39
PHI 11 X 0.463 X 1.91 -2.41 1.19

Cubs a couple WAA ahead of the Phillies.  If Phillies win today they are tied for second in NL East.  Cubs fielding another maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup which we’ll see below.  Phillies have a good lineup today as well.  Both starters are under water.  Cubs relief dropped from last series.  We’ll see why below.

Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs around a 54% advantage today mostly due to their Lineup -> Starter Tier Combo advantage which is maxed out at integer +6 in Cubs favor ( 4.00 – [ -2.41 ] = 6 ).

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-092- -1.49 145.0 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 5 -1.57
-037- -2.37 66.0 Shane_Rawley PHI 5 -2.41

Sutcliffe still under water but improving since coming to Chicago.  He came over from Cleveland with a -3.11 WAA which means he gained around 1.5 WAA in a month.  A player who adds 1.5 WAA a month for a 6 month season  is close to the very top of MLB.

Shane Rawley is having a bad year.  He finishes this year at the exact same WAA as today, WAA = -2.37 and ranked #76 in the bottom 160.  This means he pitches exactly average from now until the end of this season.

Let’s see what happens today.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 000003000 3 16 7 0
PHI 000100100 2 14 6 0

Sutcliffe pitches 8 innings giving up 2 earned runs. Lee Smith comes in and gets the save.  Rawley gives up 3 in 5 2/3 innings which was enough for Cubs to win as they don’t score any against PHI relief.

CHN Lineup 198407230

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.71 Bob_Dernier CF 381
+026+ 3.28 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 431
+033+ 3.09 Gary_Matthews LF 369
XXXXX 0.88 Keith_Moreland RF 281
+055+ 2.56 Jody_Davis CR 355
+086+ 2.02 Ron_Cey 3B 333
+013+ 4.07 Leon_Durham 1B 312
-031- -2.54 Larry_Bowa SS 275
XXXXX -0.38 Rick_Sutcliffe PR 21
TOTAL 13.69

Leon Durham still batting low in the lineup.  He might still be hurt and Frey wants to limit his plate appearances.  Gary Matthews moving up the ranks now at #33.  He finishes this year ranked #20 which is very good.

PHI Lineup 198407230

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.61 Greg_Gross LF 102
XXXXX 1.03 Von_Hayes CF 319
+124+ 1.47 Juan_Samuel 2B 440
+007+ 4.64 Mike_Schmidt 3B 392
+115+ 1.62 Tim_Corcoran 1B 157
XXXXX -0.76 Glenn_Wilson RF 268
+069+ 2.31 Ozzie_Virgil CR 295
-083- -1.60 Ivan_DeJesus SS 333
XXXXX -0.21 Shane_Rawley PR 9
TOTAL 7.89

Mike Schmidt having a good year.

CHN START Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-092- -1.49 Rick_Sutcliffe 145.0 0
XXXXX 0.65 Steve_Trout 112.7 1
-078- -1.66 Dick_Ruthven 66.0 2
-023- -2.71 Dennis_Eckersley 133.4 3
XXXXX 0.65 Scott_Sanderson 68.3 4
TOTAL -4.56

Cubs starting rotation is what it is at the start of today.  We know this gets better but based upon numbers so far, Cubs are second in NL East because of the massive lineups they bring each day.

PHI START Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-037- -2.35 Shane_Rawley 66.0 0
+034+ 3.09 Steve_Carlton 149.3 1
XXXXX -0.13 Kevin_Gross 86.7 2
-075- -1.74 Charles_Hudson 111.3 3
+032+ 3.13 Jerry_Koosman 130.7 4
TOTAL 2.00

Jerry Koosman had his career year in 1969 playing for the Mets.  His career lasted from 1967 to 1984.  Carlton doesn’t have a very good second half to this season losing almost 2 WAA finishing unranked.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.04 Lee_Smith 61.3 0
XXXXX -0.23 Warren_Brusstar 42.0 1
-019- -2.94 Rick_Reuschel 77.3 1
XXXXX -0.63 George_Frazier 71.3 1
+143+ 1.32 Rich_Bordi 57.0 2
+091+ 1.87 Tim_Stoddard 58.3 3
TOTAL -0.57

Looks like Reuschel is in the bullpen now which brought down relief value for Cubs today.

PHI RELIEF Roster 19840723

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+066+ 2.33 Larry_Andersen 50.3 0
+076+ 2.12 Al_Holland 71.7 1
XXXXX -0.25 Don_Carman 4.3 3
-045- -2.18 Jim_Kern 13.3 3
XXXXX 0.46 Bill_Campbell 60.0 3
TOTAL 2.48

The prototype portal into this data model will turn these names into links showing their career which will have links showing their WAA trajectories through the selected season.

Cubs start a 4 game weekend series with the first place Mets on Friday, July 27 which we’ll cover next.  Until then ….

Cubs Giants Matchup 7/19/1984

Cubs took 3 out of 4 from Giants in San Francisco two weeks ago and today they start another 4 game series at Wrigley. Let’s look at these two teams again.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
CHN 52 39 49.6 -13.0 4.4 19840718
SFN 35 56 1.1 -53.0 -17.6 19840718

Cubs at the top of NL with Mets, Padres and Phillies all bunched together. Cubs hitting is superb, top of MLB while pitching is under water based upon seasonal run differential.  Giants have average hitting, terrible pitching and unearned runs above average.  Under water UR means opposing teams score a lot of unearned runs.  The MLB commissioner counts unearned runs equally with earned runs when determining who wins a baseball game.  That’s why this model keeps track of them.  

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SFN -21 X 0.271 X 0.27 -3.21 -1.22  
CHN 13 X 0.729 X 4.00 0.65 1.05  

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a whopping 73% advantage today mostly due to the drastic differences between Cubs’ maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup facing a very under water Tier -3.21 SFN starter. 

Cubs lineup against SFN Starter would compute to 4.00 – (-3.21) = +7 integer tier combo in Cubs favor.  Tier combos max out at +6 and -6 as anything above or below is very rare.  More on how the simulation sausage is made will unravel as this season progresses.

Tier combo for Giants lineup against Cubs starter is 0.27 – 0.65 which is a wash at zero.  Cubs (R)elief staff now at Tier 1.05 while Giants are under water by around the same amount.  The simulator takes these differences and uses historical data to come up with a winning percentage.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name Tm Rest Tier
-012- -3.15 105.3 Mark_Davis SFN 5 -3.21
XXXXX 0.94 64.3 Scott_Sanderson CHN 5 0.65

Mark Davis #12 in the least valuable player list, a list no one wants to be number 1.  Sanderson is unranked but above average both seasonally with raw WAA and the computed Tier number based upon the set of all starters on current MLB rosters.  It would be interesting to see what the Vegas line would be for this game since bettors heavily rely on starter value and although Sanderson is good, he might not be a big enough draw to get bettors to risk 73% betting Cubs today.  Just speculation however.

Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
SFN 001200010 4 18 12 3
CHN 00300030 6 15 8 0

Cubs score 6 against Davis who pitches all 8 innings.  Sanderson gives up 3 in 4 innings, gets pulled, and Cubs relief finishes off the other 5 innings.  

SFN Lineup 198407190

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.99 Dan_Gladden CF 83
XXXXX -0.36 Manny_Trillo 3B 177
+119+ 1.51 Chili_Davis RF 320
+061+ 2.35 Jeff_Leonard LF 358
XXXXX 0.63 Scot_Thompson 1B 95
XXXXX -0.15 Steve_Nicosia CR 101
XXXXX -0.46 Brad_Wellman SS 144
XXXXX -0.73 Duane_Kuiper 2B 85
XXXXX -0.19 Mark_Davis PR 37
TOTAL 3.59

CHN Lineup 198407190

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.63 Bob_Dernier CF 363
+028+ 3.17 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 413
+067+ 2.31 Gary_Matthews LF 353
XXXXX 0.97 Keith_Moreland RF 264
+050+ 2.67 Jody_Davis CR 338
+073+ 2.21 Ron_Cey 3B 321
+010+ 4.07 Leon_Durham 1B 294
-034- -2.33 Larry_Bowa SS 261
XXXXX -0.02 Scott_Sanderson PR 24
TOTAL 13.68

Leon Durham back and batting very low in the lineup.  When Cubs lineups top Tier 4.00 this season it’s most likely due to whether or not Durham can play.   Jody Davis must be in a slump since his ranking dropped to #50 from being in ranked 20 something earlier.

SFN START Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-012- -3.15 Mark_Davis 105.3 0
XXXXX 1.20 Atlee_Hammaker 28.0 1
-011- -3.23 Mike_Krukow 106.7 2
XXXXX 0.23 Bill_Laskey 127.0 3
-087- -1.49 Jeff_Robinson 100.3 4
TOTAL -6.44

This is why Giants’ PITCH in team status is so under water.

CHN START Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.94 Scott_Sanderson 64.3 0
-089- -1.51 Rick_Sutcliffe 145.0 1
XXXXX 1.13 Steve_Trout 108.7 2
-053- -2.06 Dick_Ruthven 59.0 3
-018- -2.77 Dennis_Eckersley 126.4 4
TOTAL -4.27

We’re still mid July so there’s plenty of time for these numbers to improve.  Tiering is done on individual starters who pitch that day, not the group.

SFN RELIEF Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -1.22 Jeff_Cornell 34.0 1
XXXXX 0.32 Greg_Minton 75.3 1
XXXXX -0.69 Bob_Lacey 4.0 1
XXXXX 0.82 Gary_Lavelle 59.7 3
XXXXX -0.40 Frank_Williams 69.7 3
TOTAL -1.17

As expected, under water relief.  Giants’ manager pitched Davis a complete 8 innings today because he had 3 relievers who pitched yesterday.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840719

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -0.34 George_Frazier 67.6 0
+093+ 1.81 Tim_Stoddard 55.3 0
XXXXX 1.24 Rich_Bordi 56.0 2
XXXXX -0.02 Warren_Brusstar 39.7 2
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith 57.3 4
TOTAL 2.79

Frasier pitched 3 innings and Stoddard finished the game pitching 2 today.  Managers used relievers very differently than they will in the future.

That’s all for now.  The first rough draft, prototype portal into this data model is almost ready.  This will allow simple lookup for any team, any game, any player, etc. etc. from 1900 – 2020.  

Also, it appears there may be some sort of MLB baseball season in the year 2020. More info on that too.  Until then ….