Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs Brewers start a series in Milwaukee today.  Let’s look at what the Brewers have been up to lately.

MIL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIL 43 38 16.3 -24.4 4.5 20190628
MIL 54 50 18.1 -30.8 3.1 20190726

They went 11-12 in the last 4 weeks losing a game.  BAT stayed about the same and PITCH down a little.  This is a team going sideways.  Sideways doesn’t get one into the playoffs however.

CHN MIL 07_26_8:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 8 0.512 0.550 107 1.42 1.96 0.34
MIL 4 0.512 0.450 88 0.88 0.01 -0.09

At 0.512 for each team, Vegas has no clue about this game so it’s 50/50 plus their cut according to them.  TC Sim has the Cubs favored due to better Lineup, Starter, team WAA and around equal Relief.  At EV 107 this is not a betting opportunity however.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.77 0.615 108.3 1.96
Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 0.63 0.581 35.0 0.01

Hendricks has been a better pitcher than Gonzalez this season.

MIL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+050+ 3.21 Zach_Davies_MIL 113.7
+157+ 1.72 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL 117.7
XXXXX 0.92 Chase_Anderson_MIL 83.0
XXXXX 0.63 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 35.0
XXXXX -0.65 Freddy_Peralta_MIL 67.7
-025- -2.92 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 88.7
Total 2.91 0.526

Another 6 starter rotation.  They need to figure out what kind of injury they can claim  Jhoulys Chacin came down with.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+077+ 2.56 Josh_Hader_MIL 49.7
XXXXX 0.38 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL 40.7
XXXXX 0.34 Junior_Guerra_MIL 54.7
XXXXX 0.23 Alex_Claudio_MIL 43.3
XXXXX 0.06 Adrian_Houser_MIL 52.0
XXXXX -0.15 Matt_Albers_MIL 41.7
XXXXX -0.63 Jay_Jackson_MIL 10.3
Total 2.79 Tier=-0.09

At Tier -0.09 this is almost a completely league average Relief staff based upon current rosters.  Josh Hader in top 100.  WAR has him ranked #147.

MIL Lineup 07242019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-123- -1.51 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 431
+008+ 5.77 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 416
XXXXX 0.97 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR 382
XXXXX 0.90 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 342
+193+ 1.53 Eric_Thames_MIL 1B 275
XXXXX 0.73 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 160
XXXXX -0.71 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 357
XXXXX -0.08 Tyler_Saladino_MIL SS 62
XXXXX 0.00 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL none 0
Total 7.60 0.560

That’s their lineup from 2 days ago.  Not much more to say about that.  Note: For awhile now WAA for pitchers have been zeroed out in lineup calculations  This is fodder for the next simulation update post.

That’s all for now.  Might do some blast from the past playoff horse races to provide some perspective on the current table in Part 5.  Until then ….

Cubs Giants Matchup

Cubs Giants play tonight very late so let’s look at what the Giants have been up to lately.

SFN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SFN 33 43 -67.5 -9.6 -8.4 20190624
SFN 50 50 -33.4 -1.3 -3.7 20190722

Giants went 17-7 the last 4 weeks gaining 10 games going from -10 WAA to 0 which is even steven for the year.  This is quite a run.   This was mostly due to improved hitting as can be seen above in the BAT column.  PITCH and UR also improved.  Here’s where they stand in the NL West.

NL West 7/22/2019

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 67 35 79.6 101.7 -17.7
SFN 50 50 -33.4 -1.3 -3.7
ARI 50 50 37.6 10.8 13.3
SDN 47 52 -36.9 -7.4 0.3
COL 47 52 62.6 -105.2 5.3

Giants tied for second right now although all those bottom four teams will be fighting it out for a Wild Card spot because no way can any of them overcome LAN.  It’s amazing how badly Colorado’s pitching tanked this season.  In the off WordPress site you will be able to drill down and see why but this post is about the Giants.  Let’s look at game records.

CHN SFN 07_22_9:45_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 0.533 0.549 103 0.36 -0.60 -0.03
SFN 0 0.490 0.451 92 -0.59 -1.29 2.59

Vegas and TC Sim are very much in sync about this game, both favoring the Cubs between 53% and 55%.  Cubs have a better team WAA,  lineup and starter, but worse relief going tonight.  Lineups are based upon last game played because current day lineups for this game will come out very late.  It won’t change handicapping much to make a difference.  Both lines a clear discard.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Alec_Mills_CHN -0.00 NA 6.0 -0.60
Shaun_Anderson_SFN -0.73 0.449 64.7 -1.29

A New Guy Alec Mills starting tonight for Cubs.  He only pitched 6 innings this season so far  which puts him at even steven.  Right now even steven is below league average based upon current rosters so his Tier Number is -0.60.

That doesn’t matter.  Since Mills has too few innings to evaluate this entire game would get kicked no matter what EV in the game records above say.  SFN starter Shaun Anderson is below 1/2 standard deviation below league average based on current league rosters.

SFN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+105+ 2.16 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN 125.7
XXXXX 0.80 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN 110.3
XXXXX 0.08 Conner_Menez_SFN 5.0
XXXXX -0.44 Tyler_Beede_SFN 59.3
XXXXX -0.73 Shaun_Anderson_SFN 64.7
-025- -2.88 Drew_Pomeranz_SFN 72.3
Total -1.01 0.490

They have 6 starters listed on their roster which is unusual.  Drew Pomeranz is having another bad season so he may be out the door soon.  Maybe there are contract issues.  Not sure why they don’t feign injury and stick him on DL.

SFN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+119+ 1.97 Sam_Dyson_SFN 48.0
+124+ 1.91 Reyes_Moronta_SFN 45.3
+136+ 1.81 Will_Smith_SFN 42.3
+181+ 1.43 Tony_Watson_SFN 40.7
XXXXX 0.63 Trevor_Gott_SFN 41.0
XXXXX 0.55 Mark_Melancon_SFN 42.3
Total 8.30 Tier=1.29

That’s a pretty decent relief staff with a Tier number 1.29 which means it’s over 1/2 standard deviation above league average.  Maybe the Cubs can knock them down a few notches these next few games.

SFN Lineup 07212019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.15 Donovan_Solano_SFN 2B-SS 114
XXXXX 0.59 Austin_Slater_SFN RF 46
XXXXX 0.97 Tyler_Austin_SFN LF-1B 140
XXXXX -1.05 Buster_Posey_SFN CR 270
XXXXX 0.55 Kevin_Pillar_SFN CF-RF 394
XXXXX 0.00 Zach_Green_SFN none 0
XXXXX -0.73 Brandon_Crawford_SFN SS 346
+199+ 1.22 Mike_Yastrzemski_SFN RF-LF 171
XXXXX 0.00 Conner_Menez_SFN none 0
Total 1.40 Tier=-0.59

The above is the Giant’s lineup from yesterday.  Current league average lineup is +3.76 so this lineup is below average as one should expect based upon their negative BAT in team status.

That is all for now.   Coming next will be a look into Billy Beane’s minor league system this season and throughout the years to see how it stacks up to this data model.  Until then ….

Cubs Padres Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Padres today.  This will be another matchup dump with commentary intermixed.

SDN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SDN 38 37 -25.1 -9.9 2.4 20190621
SDN 46 49 -37.4 -10.0 2.0 20190719

Padres went 8-12 losing 4 games in the last 4 weeks so they’re trending downward once again.  Player values will reflect these losses which are mostly due to poor hitting based upon that BAT number.

SDN CHN 07_19_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SDN -3 0.392 0.451 X -0.45 0.31 -0.96
CHN 8 0.630 0.549 X 0.24 0.98 0.02

Vegas has the Cubs heavily favored for this game.  The L, S, and R categories are not that different so TC Sim has the Cubs less favored.   Cubs are fielding one of their weakest lineups today — partly because the new catcher from KCA is playing.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Eric_Lauer_SDN 1.01 0.550 91.3 0.31
Jon_Lester_CHN 1.70 0.576 101.0 0.98

Lester is a better pitcher but both are above average.

SDN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+024+ 3.82 Chris_Paddack_SDN 90.0
+188+ 1.41 Joey_Lucchesi_SDN 101.0
XXXXX 1.01 Eric_Lauer_SDN 91.3
XXXXX 0.34 Cal_Quantrill_SDN 47.0
XXXXX -0.42 Dinelson_Lamet_SDN 10.0
XXXXX -1.22 Logan_Allen_SDN 20.3
Total 4.94 0.562

The above is a very capable starting rotation.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+036+ 3.38 Kirby_Yates_SDN 42.0
XXXXX 0.78 Craig_Stammen_SDN 49.3
XXXXX 0.25 Andres_Munoz_SDN 2.3
XXXXX 0.23 Luis_Perdomo_SDN 38.0
XXXXX 0.19 Trey_Wingenter_SDN 35.7
-085- -1.78 Matt_Strahm_SDN 80.7
-048- -2.33 Gerardo_Reyes_SDN 15.7
Total 0.72 0.512

Relief with a Tier # of -0.96 is almost 1/2 standard deviation below league average according current roster values.  These tables will soon be updated to include tier numbers published in the above game table.  Tier numbers provide a better context to WAA than WinPct.  WinPct is based upon seasonal data, Tier Numbers are based on current roster data.

SDN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+177+ 1.47 Fernando_Tatis_SDN SS 258
XXXXX -0.50 Manuel_Margot_SDN CF 230
+147+ 1.68 Manny_Machado_SDN 3B-SS 395
XXXXX 1.20 Hunter_Renfroe_SDN LF-RF 308
XXXXX 0.19 Franmil_Reyes_SDN RF 318
XXXXX 0.94 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 403
XXXXX -1.22 Francisco_Mejia_SDN CR 120
-043- -2.42 Ian_Kinsler_SDN 2B 266
XXXXX 0.00 Eric_Lauer_SDN none 0
Total 1.34 0.511

This is an above league average lineup based upon seasonal league averages but below based upon current rosters.   Machado and Tatis are ranked according to this data model.  WAR has them ranked #71 and #19 respectively.   Renfroe is ranked #71 so according to WAR their poor hitting is due to the other 5 guys above.  Whatever.  The Padres don’t have a -37.4 BAT derived from seasonal run differential because there are three superstars hitting in their lineup every day.

That’s enough for now.  Playoff Horse Race coming tomorrow and then another Cubs Status since that hasn’t been done in over a month now.   Unlike Draft Kings leagues,  A real baseball season moves at a glacial pace.  Until then ….

Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs play the Reds again after playing them around 2 weeks ago.  Let’s take a look at what the Reds have been up to.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 38 43 -48.0 76.0 13.9 20190701
CIN 42 48 -47.1 70.3 12.6 20190715

They went 4-5 losing 1 game in the last 2 weeks.  PITCH down a little and BAT around the same.  This is a team going sideways.   In past years Reds had great hitting and terrible pitching.

CIN CHN 07_15_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN -6 0.431 0.442 103 -1.00 3.00 -0.66
CHN 7 0.587 0.558 95 1.56 1.48 0.22

Vegas and Tier Combo simulation pretty much in agreement.  CIN has a maxed out starter today but Cubs have a better lineup and relief.  The L, S, and R columns are tier numbers used in simulation for Lineups, today’s starter, and Relief.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Luis_Castillo_CIN 5.80 0.746 106.0 3.00
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.16 0.602 95.3 1.48

Two very good pitchers starting tonight.   Castillo is top of MLB and in contention for a Cy Young so far this season.  Hendricks chugging along ranked around #100 which is pretty good.  He usually percolates to the top second half of season.

WinPct provides context for pitchers and is a mere calculation of WAA and time, time being Innings Pitched or Outs for pitchers as described here.   No one is ranked based upon  WinPct because it’s a rate.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+003+ 5.80 Luis_Castillo_CIN 106.0
+057+ 2.75 Sonny_Gray_CIN 97.3
+174+ 1.47 Tanner_Roark_CIN 97.0
XXXXX 0.78 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 86.7
XXXXX -0.42 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 97.0
Total 10.38 0.597

Pretty decent set of starters which is unusual for the Reds.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+194+ 1.28 Jared_Hughes_CIN 37.0
XXXXX 1.09 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 47.0
XXXXX 0.88 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 35.3
XXXXX 0.61 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 38.7
XXXXX 0.48 Matt_Bowman_CIN 18.0
XXXXX -0.48 Wandy_Peralta_CIN 24.7
XXXXX -0.55 Jimmy_Herget_CIN 0.7
-096- -1.70 David_Hernandez_CIN 38.7
Total 1.61 0.530

This relief staff is slightly below league average of 2.45 which is based upon current rosters.

CIN Lineup 7/14/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.17 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 245
XXXXX -0.97 Jesse_Winker_CIN LF-CF-RF 286
XXXXX 0.38 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 375
+142+ 1.76 Derek_Dietrich_CIN 2B-1B-LF 243
XXXXX 0.00 Phillip_Ervin_CIN none 0
XXXXX -0.55 Scooter_Gennett_CIN BAT 20
XXXXX -1.20 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 298
XXXXX 0.36 Kyle_Farmer_CIN 2B-1B 114
XXXXX 0.00 Tyler_Mahle_CIN none 0
Total -0.39 0.495

This is a -1 tier number lineup from yesterday which is 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current MLB rosters.  Joey Votto isn’t in this lineup but if he is, at WAA = -2.41,  CIN lineup only gets worse.

Not much more to say about this series.  Until then ….

Cubs White Sox Matchup

Tonight the Cubs play White Sox at Comiskey.  Let’s see how the White Sox have been doing since these two teams last met.

CHA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHA 34 36 -39.6 -19.7 1.5 20190618
CHA 41 43 -48.7 -21.9 0.5 20190706

Since June 18 the White Sox went 7-7 , completely even steven.  BAT declined and PITCH remained around the same, both underwater.  The White Sox are -70 in run differential right now and they are quite fortunate being only 2 games under 0.500.

CHN CHA 07_06_7:15_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 4 0.535 0.549 102 1.45 0.55 0.23
CHA -2 0.488 0.451 92 -2.04 3.00 0.30

Cubs have a better team WAA, and Lineup today, relief about the same between these two teams.  White Sox have a maxed out tier 3 starter pitching tonight. Vegas and TC Sim based upon the above tier numbers are very close, both favoring the Cubs a little, so both lines in this game would be discard.

Let’s see who today’s starters are.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jon_Lester_CHN 1.18 0.560 88.0 0.55
Lucas_Giolito_CHA 4.68 0.720 96.0 3.00

Giolito is their ace and Lester has had some rough outings this season but still above average.  Starting advantage definitely favors White Sox based upon this year’s numbers.  Last season Giolito was number one in the bottom 200 of this data model making him the least valuable player in MLB.  Somehow this season he has turned it around.  Simulations are currently only based upon current year data.  If you factor in career stats Lester is a far better overall pitcher.

CHA Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 4.68 Lucas_Giolito_CHA 96.0
XXXXX 0.40 Ross_Detwiler_CHA 11.0
XXXXX NA Dylan_Cease_CHA 5.0
-032- -2.44 Ivan_Nova_CHA 94.3
-014- -3.51 Reynaldo_Lopez_CHA 98.0
Total -0.93 0.486

A sub 0.500 starting rotation with Giolito carrying the load.

CHA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+081+ 2.25 Aaron_Bummer_CHA 31.3
+088+ 2.21 Alex_Colome_CHA 34.7
XXXXX 1.01 Evan_Marshall_CHA 22.0
XXXXX 0.61 Juan_Minaya_CHA 26.0
XXXXX -0.25 Jace_Fry_CHA 27.7
XXXXX -0.32 Josh_Osich_CHA 29.0
XXXXX -0.88 Jose_Ruiz_CHA 22.0
-062- -2.02 Kelvin_Herrera_CHA 30.7
Total 2.61 0.553

This is around a current league average relief squad based upon current MLB team rosters.  Mediocre relief and below average starters explain their poor PITCH in team status.  If the White Sox decide to become buyers at trade deadline this could change.  Not sure they have the horses to make the playoffs however.

CHA Lineup 07042019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.40 Leury_Garcia_CHA CF-RF-SS 322
XXXXX 0.97 Yoan_Moncada_CHA 3B 322
XXXXX 1.28 Jose_Abreu_CHA 1B-DH 356
XXXXX 0.34 James_McCann_CHA CR 238
XXXXX 0.23 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA LF 238
-054- -2.29 Jose_Rondon_CHA 2B-3B 132
-035- -2.31 Yolmer_Sanchez_CHA 2B 262
-160- -1.11 Ryan_Cordell_CHA RF-CF 158
XXXXX -0.99 Charlie_Tilson_CHA RF-LF-CF 138
Total -4.28 0.462

The above lineup is from their last game  July 4 and it’s below average which one would expect from their very below average BAT in team status.

Not much more to say about these White Sox.   More minor league posts coming next.  Until then ….