Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Dodgers Matchup 6/28/1984

Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Dodgers. Let’s look at this matchup. Below are the top half of the National League as of the start of today.

NL 19840627

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
SDN 43 29 25.0 -0.2 4.9
PHI 41 32 43.0 18.8 -22.1
NYN 38 31 -65.5 41.8 -2.1
CHN 40 33 55.5 -23.2 3.9
ATL 41 35 33.0 -14.2 -0.1
LAN 40 37 -31.0 19.8 -3.1

Cubs still struggling with pitching based upon PITCH, Dodgers (LAN) have problems with hitting based upon BAT in team status.

Tier Combos 

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 7 X 0.574 X 3.22 1.67 -1.27  
LAN 3 X 0.426 X -1.20 3.31 -1.83  

According to Tier Combo simulation Cubs have a 57% chance of winning based upon Lineups (L column), Starters (S column) and Relief (R column).  L, S, and R columns contain tier numbers where every plus or minus tier represents 1/2 standard deviation above or below current league average.

Cubs have a much better lineup than Dodgers as should be expected based upon their respective BAT numbers in team status above.  Dodgers have a better starter pitching today and both teams have bad relief.

Let’s look at today’s starters.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+100+ 1.55 83.7 Steve_Trout CHN 5 1.67
+023+ 3.13 106.0 Alejandro_Pena LAN 4 3.31

Steve Trout on the mound for Cubs and right now ranked exactly 100.  This is a career season for Alejandro Pena who is Dodger’s ace pitcher.  Let’s see what happens

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 000104000 5 11 8 2
LAN 000300000 3 10 10 1

Cubs bats tag Pena with 4 runs which is enough to win this game.  Cubs underwater relief hold Dodger to no runs in 2 2/3 innings.  Let’s look at lineups which will be very similar for these two teams on Saturday and Sunday.

CHN Lineup 198406280

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.9 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 281
+020+ 3.21 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 333
+043+ 2.46 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 287
XXXXX 0.25 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 187
+016+ 3.32 Jody_Davis CHN CR 267
+066+ 2.02 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 255
XXXXX -0.32 Jay_Johnstone CHN LF 33
-042- -1.99 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 218
XXXXX -0.23 Steve_Trout CHN PR 34
TOTAL 9.62

Ryne Sandberg keeps rising in the ranks.  Top ten player Leon Durham is missing from this series and must be hurt.  With him in the lineup Cubs should be close to a maxed out Tier 4 lineup.

LAN Lineup 198406280

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.94 Steve_Sax LAN 2B 279
XXXXX -0.34 Bill_Russell LAN SS 152
XXXXX -0.84 Ken_Landreaux LAN RF 232
XXXXX 0.59 Pedro_Guerrero LAN 1B 314
+075+ 1.83 Mike_Marshall LAN LF 239
XXXXX -0.25 Steve_Yeager LAN CR 125
XXXXX 0.08 Candy_Maldonado LAN CF 143
XXXXX -0.63 Dave_Anderson LAN SS 156
XXXXX -0.5 Alejandro_Pena LAN PR 37
TOTAL -1.00

Mike Marshall is the only player ranked in this lineup.

CHN START Roster 19840628

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+100+ 1.55 Steve_Trout START 83.0 0
-006- -2.98 Rick_Reuschel START 65.0 1
XXXXX 0.88 Rich_Bordi START 50.0 2
-004- -3.54 Dennis_Eckersley START 105.0 2
XXXXX -0.63 Chuck_Rainey START 82.0 3
TOTAL -4.72

Rick Sutcliffe pitches tomorrow.  Frey seems to be carrying 6 starters.  The script that makes these tables cuts off at 5 which will need to be fixed.

LAN START Roster 19840628

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+023+ 3.13 Alejandro_Pena START 106.0 0
+079+ 1.76 Fernando_Valenzuela START 127.0 1
XXXXX -0.08 Bob_Welch START 97.0 2
+077+ 1.81 Rick_Honeycutt START 112.0 3
-089- -1.30 Burt_Hooton START 50.0 16
TOTAL 5.32

Valenzuela reaches rank #30 by the end of this season. Next year, 1985 is his career season. Former Cub Burt Hooton having a bad season but he recovers to even steven by the end of September.

That’s all for this weekend away series for the Cubs.  Part 2 of our All Star picks featuring catchers and outfielders coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Pirates Matchup 6/25/1984

Cubs start a home series with the Pirates today after sweeping the Cardinals in a three game weekend series.  Let’s look at this matchup.

Update from present time:  It looks like baseball will play a 60 game/2 month season.  More on this later.

First let’s look at the standings in the NL East.

NL_East 19840624

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYN 37 29 -60.6 41.7 -4.4
PHI 39 31 44.9 14.7 -22.4
CHN 38 31 54.9 -12.3 4.6
WAS 35 35 -34.1 38.7 1.6
SLN 34 38 -31.1 -1.3 14.6
PIT 28 41 -46.6 41.7 8.6

Pittsburgh still in the basement of NL East even though they have pretty decent pitching based upon PITCH in team status.  Cubs are bunched with Phillies and Mets at the top of this division.  Cubs have great hitting based on BAT but somewhat below average pitching.

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PIT -13 X 0.343 X -2.81 1.49 0.45
CHN 7 X 0.657 X 1.64 -0.52 -0.54

Cubs are heavy favorites in this at almost 66% or 2/3.  At Tier 1.64 Cubs are fielding a much weaker lineup than we saw last series with the Cardinals.  PIT has a better starter and better relief but a very weak lineup which would concur with negative BAT in team status above.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+111+ 1.32 73.0 Jose_DeLeon PIT 5 1.49
XXXXX -0.55 75.7 Chuck_Rainey CHN 5 -0.52

Pirates have a better starter pitching today.  Starters face lineups however in simulation.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
PIT 011001000 3 16 7 1
CHN 000000000 0 4 4 0

Cubs weaker lineup couldn’t score a single run and Pittsburgh wins. Here are the lineups for today.

PIT Lineup 198406250

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
-061- -1.74 Marvell_Wynne PIT CF 315
XXXXX -0.46 Johnny_Ray PIT 2B 269
-072- -1.49 Bill_Madlock PIT 3B 282
XXXXX -0.15 Jason_Thompson PIT 1B 256
XXXXX -0.02 Tony_Pena PIT CR 255
XXXXX -0.59 Lee_Mazzilli PIT LF 139
+086+ 1.62 Leon_Lacy PIT RF 175
XXXXX -1.2 Dale_Berra PIT SS 242
XXXXX -0.48 Jose_DeLeon PIT PR 25
TOTAL -4.51

CHN Lineup 198406250

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.94 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 263
+028+ 2.81 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 316
+040+ 2.42 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 273
XXXXX 0.1 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 169
XXXXX 0.55 Richie_Hebner CHN 1B 70
XXXXX -0.15 Jay_Johnstone CHN LF 25
XXXXX -0.61 Ron_Hassey CHN 1B 173
XXXXX 0.02 Dave_Owen CHN 3B 32
XXXXX -0.23 Chuck_Rainey CHN PR 29
TOTAL 5.85

Main guy missing from Cubs lineup today is Leon Durham.  Sandberg went from being ranked #59 at the start of the last series with St. Louis to being  ranked #28 at the start of today.  That Cardinals series was infamous for Ryne Sandberg  propelling him into the national spotlight.

A lineup however consists of 9 players and the above shows why Cubs were considered tier 1.64 instead of their usual close to tier 4.  A tier of 4 is two standard deviations above league average for that day.

Next we’ll look at the set of starters for each tema for this series.

PIT START Roster 19840625

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
+111+ 1.32 Jose_DeLeon START 73.0 0
+112+ 1.32 John_Tudor START 101.0 1
+100+ 1.45 John_Candelaria START 74.0 2
XXXXX -1.24 Lee_Tunnell START 34.0 3
+023+ 2.98 Larry_McWilliams START 92.0 3
TOTAL 5.83

This is a very good starting rotation which concurs with their very good PITCH in team status.

CHN START Roster 19840625

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
XXXXX -0.55 Chuck_Rainey START 75.0 0
-063- -1.70 Rick_Sutcliffe START 111.0 1
+083+ 1.64 Steve_Trout START 83.0 2
-017- -2.31 Rick_Reuschel START 60.0 3
-005- -2.75 Dennis_Eckersley START 103.0 4
TOTAL -5.67

Since we’re from the future we know starting pitching gets better for the Cubs.  Right now pitching has dragged down Cubs top tier hitting even though they couldn’t score a run in today’s game.  Tomorrow is another day.

Cubs status coming soon as well as our 1984 All Star Picks and how we’ll deal with this 60 game 2020 season.  Until then ….

Cubs Pirate Matchup 6/19/1984

Cubs start a series with the Pirates today. Let’s look at this matchup.

NL_East 19840619

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
PHI 37 27 37.6 30.7 -19.7
NYN 34 27 -60.9 35.7 -2.7
CHN 35 29 44.1 -6.3 3.3
WAS 33 33 -19.4 26.7 -0.7
SLN 33 35 -25.4 3.7 13.3
PIT 24 39 -61.9 44.7 10.3

Cubs just got swept by the Phillies in a 4 game series and now reside in third place  in the NL East.

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 5 X 0.599 X 3.97 -3.27 -0.93  
PIT -14 X 0.401 X -4.00 1.88 -0.18  

According to real team WAA (first column), Cubs have a much better record than the last place Pirates.  Pirates have a bottom of MLB lineup going today at maxed out -4.  Cubs have almost a maxed out +4 top of MLB lineup right now.

Pirates have an advantage in starting pitching today as we’ll see below.  This all adds up to Cubs having around a 60% chance of winning today.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-006- -3.11 94.3 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 7 -3.27
+068+ 1.76 88.7 John_Tudor PIT 5 1.88

Rick Sutcliff had a very poor start to the 1984 season with SDN, Cleveland Indians (CLE) and ranked #7 as the least valuable player in MLB right now.  This was probably an incentive for the Padres to deal him to the Cubs.  He had 7 days of rest so let’s see how he did.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 202000000 4 10 7 1
PIT 000000003 3 6 5 0

Cubs score early and Pirates only come up with 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th against Cubs relatively poor relief which we’ll describe in more detail later this season.

CHN Lineup 198406190

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.36 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 235
+078+ 1.6 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 288
+050+ 2.12 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 246
XXXXX -0.42 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 142
+064+ 1.89 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 228
+024+ 2.73 Jody_Davis CHN CR 232
+004+ 3.99 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 251
-067- -1.39 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 186
XXXXX 0 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN PR 0
TOTAL 10.88

This is a maxed out tier 4 top of the league lineup according to this data model.

PIT Lineup 198406190

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
-030- -2.1 Marvell_Wynne PIT CF 280
XXXXX -0.84 Lee_Mazzilli PIT LF 116
XXXXX -1.24 Bill_Madlock PIT 3B 253
XXXXX -1.03 Jason_Thompson PIT 1B 230
XXXXX -0.76 Johnny_Ray PIT 2B 241
XXXXX -0.23 Tony_Pena PIT CR 228
XXXXX 0.04 Benny_Distefano PIT RF 52
XXXXX -1.18 Dale_Berra PIT SS 214
XXXXX -0.61 John_Tudor PIT PR 35
TOTAL -7.95

And this is a bottom of MLB lineup based on league data as of 6/19/1984.

CHN START Roster 19840619

Rank WAA Name Pos Rest
-006- -3.11 Rick_Sutcliffe START 0
-042- -1.89 Dennis_Eckersley START 2
-016- -2.37 Rick_Reuschel START 3
XXXXX -0.61 Chuck_Rainey START 4
XXXXX 0.69 Rich_Bordi START 5
TOTAL -7.29

Right now Cubs still don’t have a very good starting rotation.  It might be one of the worst in the league but we only tier individual starters, not entire squads. 

Since we’re from the future we know pitching fortunes improve across the board for the Cubs which we’ll see as this season progresses.

PIT START Roster 19840619

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+068+ 1.76 John_Tudor START 0
+042+ 2.31 Larry_McWilliams START 2
+040+ 2.35 Rick_Rhoden START 3
XXXXX 0.84 Jose_DeLeon START 4
XXXXX -0.34 Lee_Tunnell START 6
TOTAL 6.92

Pirates have a very good pitching staff right now which is reflected in their very positive PITCH based upon run differential.  

That’s all for now.  1984 playoff horse race Part 1 coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Phillies Matchup 6/15/1984

Cubs started this series on 6/14/1984 and lost 11-2, the day they acquired Rick Sutcliff in a 7 player deal. Let’s look at these two teams on this day in 1984.

NL_East 19840614

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
CHN 34 26 45.8 -0.8 5.7
NYN 32 25 -59.7 29.2 -0.3
PHI 33 27 26.3 30.2 -21.3
SLN 32 32 -18.2 5.2 12.7
WAS 29 33 -17.2 17.2 -0.3
PIT 24 35 -53.2 42.2 8.7

Cubs, Phillies, and Mets bunched together at the top of NL East.  Cubs had great hitting according to BAT run differential and very mediocre pitching according to PITCH.  Phillies, who Cubs play in this weekend series had balanced BAT and PITCH.  The end of 6/14/1984 standings is beginning of day for 6/15/1984.  This Cubs/Phillies series stretched from Thursday to Sunday with 6/15 being a Friday.

Below is the handicapping table for this game.  We don’t know what the Vegas lines were back then so that can’t be displayed nor can Expected Value of a 100 bet (EV) be calculated.  

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV Lineup Starter Relief
PHI 6 X 0.435 X 1.34 -2.56 0.45  
CHN 8 X 0.565 X 3.89 -0.30 -1.38  

Cubs favored at 56.5% for this game.  They have an almost maxed out Tier 4 lineup going against a very poor Phillies starter.  

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-017- -2.29 72.3 Charles_Hudson PHI 5 -2.56
XXXXX -0.27 67.3 Chuck_Rainey CHN 5 -0.30

Rainey at almost Tier 0 and WAA 0 is very mediocre but much better than Charles Hudson who ranks 17th in the bottom 200 on this day in 1984.  The Rest column is new and shows how many days rest each pitcher has had.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
PHI 100400000 5 16 7 1
CHN 011000000 2 8 4 1

The Phillies take game 2 of this series 5-2.  Rainey gets tagged for 5 runs early and Cubs great lineup can’t score against the Phillies below average starter and mediocre relief.  These things happen in baseball.  

Let’s look at lineups and starters in more detail for today’s game.

PHI Lineup 198406150

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.18 Juan_Samuel PHI 2B 280
XXXXX 0.15 Garry_Maddox PHI CF 110
XXXXX 0.8 Von_Hayes PHI CF 184
+019+ 2.77 Mike_Schmidt PHI 1B 251
XXXXX -0.32 Joe_Lefebvre PHI LF 173
XXXXX 0.9 Tim_Corcoran PHI RF 39
XXXXX 0.38 John_Wockenfuss PHI CR 81
XXXXX -1.05 Ivan_DeJesus PHI SS 211
XXXXX 0.02 Charles_Hudson PHI PR 27
TOTAL 4.83

This is an above average lineup with a total WAA of 4.83 which translates into a tier of 1.34.  Every 2 tier numbers is one complete standard deviation above current league average.

CHN Lineup 198406150

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.34 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 222
+075+ 1.57 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 275
+039+ 2.27 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 234
+005+ 3.86 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 238
XXXXX -0.65 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 129
+067+ 1.76 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 219
+017+ 2.81 Jody_Davis CHN CR 224
-067- -1.32 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 178
XXXXX -0.17 Chuck_Rainey CHN PR 27
TOTAL 10.47

Cubs have a top of MLB lineup with 5 players in top 100 at this point in the season.

PHI START Roster 19840615

Rank WAA Name Pos Rest
-017- -2.29 Charles_Hudson START 0
+038+ 2.27 Steve_Carlton START 1
+077+ 1.51 Jerry_Koosman START 2
+070+ 1.72 Kevin_Gross START 3
XXXXX -1.16 Marty_Bystrom START 4
TOTAL 2.05

These are all the starters on PHI roster on this day in 1984.  Carlton pitched yesterday and got the win.

CHN START Roster 19840615

Rank WAA Name Pos Rest
XXXXX -0.27 Chuck_Rainey START 0
XXXXX 0.59 Rich_Bordi START 1
+015+ 2.96 Steve_Trout START 2
-050- -1.62 Dennis_Eckersley START 3
-076- -1.26 Rick_Reuschel START 4
TOTAL 0.40

Above is the starting rotation for the Cubs.  Since Cubs just acquired Rick Sutcliffe he hasn’t shown up on our roster radar yet.  Dennis Eckersley came over from Boston after a pretty bad start to the 1984 season.  Since we’re from the future we know he turns his and Cubs fortunes around.  

NLDS Matchups

Here are the NLDS Matchups for today.  Not much commenting because I had to wait for lineups and watched the Bears game.

Braves vs. Cardinals

Atlanta beat the Cardinals 3-1 today.  Below are last two week stretches for both teams.

ATL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ATL 93 57 85.4 36.7 -10.9 20190915
ATL 97 64 71.8 49.0 -8.8 20190930

SLN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 83 65 -33.6 113.8 11.1 20190915
SLN 90 71 -31.2 106.1 6.2 20190930

ATL SLN 10_06_4:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.545 0.604 X 1.60 3.71 2.42
SLN 20 0.476 0.396 X -0.78 0.16 1.95

EVs will not be displayed because there are other aspects of playoffs that need to be modeled.  The L , S and R columns represent Lineups, Starter, and Relief strengths.  Atlanta has Cardinals beat in every category.  That doesn’t mean Atlanta is guaranteed to win however, just that they have a greater than 50/50 chance.  TC Sim calculates that probability and has them favored more than Vegas today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Mike_Soroka_ATL 7.35 0.689 174.7 3.71
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Soroka is a better pitcher than Wainwriight this season.  Even WAR agrees.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+097+ 3.25 Shane_Greene_ATL 62.7
+176+ 2.10 Sean_Newcomb_ATL 68.3
+196+ 1.81 Max_Fried_ATL 165.7
XXXXX 1.36 Josh_Tomlin_ATL 79.3
XXXXX 1.32 Mark_Melancon_ATL 67.3
XXXXX 1.09 Luke_Jackson_ATL 72.7
XXXXX 0.34 Darren_O’Day_ATL 5.3
Total 11.27 TIER=2.42

Top notch relief staff.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 3.78 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 74.0
XXXXX 1.55 John_Brebbia_SLN 72.7
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 48.3
XXXXX 1.34 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 36.7
XXXXX 0.94 Tyler_Webb_SLN 55.0
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 48.7
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Miller_SLN 54.7
XXXXX -0.17 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 20.3
Total 9.95 TIER=1.95

At almost Tier 2 means SLN has a relief staff around one standard deviation above league average.

ATL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+030+ 5.69 Ronald_Acuna_ATL CF-LF-RF 715
+192+ 1.83 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 702
+013+ 6.91 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 692
+102+ 3.13 Josh_Donaldson_ATL 3B 659
XXXXX 0.94 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 469
XXXXX -0.29 Matt_Joyce_ATL RF 238
XXXXX -0.40 Brian_McCann_ATL CR 316
XXXXX 1.01 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 545
XXXXX 0.00 Mike_Soroka_ATL none 0
Total 18.82 TIER=1.60

This isn’t a +30 lineup like 3 ALDS teams put up yesterday but it’s decent.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
-158- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 492
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Adam_Wainwright_SLN none 0
Total 2.66 TIER=-0.78

SLN has a below average lineup which reflects their below average BAT in team status above.

Dodgers vs. Nationals

Dodgers are beating Nationals 8-4 right now.  Last two weeks team statuses below for each team.

LAN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 96 54 97.5 156.6 -15.9 20190915
LAN 105 56 102.8 174.1 -12.8 20190930

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 81 66 56.0 31.7 17.1 20190915
WAS 92 69 78.8 42.0 18.2 20190930

LAN WAS 10_06_7:45_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.615 0.619 X 2.15 4.00 3.06
WAS 24 0.408 0.381 X 1.65 0.96 -0.17

Vegas and TC Sim almost completely in agreement.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN 9.30 0.729 182.7 4.00
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 0.96

Patrick Corbin comes in relief to Sanchez in this game because we’re from the future.  Corbin’s ranking shown below in Starters section.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+070+ 3.74 Julio_Urias_LAN 79.7
+161+ 2.27 Pedro_Baez_LAN 69.7
+170+ 2.16 Ross_Stripling_LAN 90.7
XXXXX 1.64 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 153.7
XXXXX 1.47 Adam_Kolarek_LAN 55.0
XXXXX 1.16 Kenley_Jansen_LAN 63.0
XXXXX 0.69 Dustin_May_LAN 34.7
XXXXX -0.08 Joe_Kelly_LAN 51.3
Total 13.05 TIER=3.06

This is a top shelf MLB relief staff.  WAR has this staff bottom of 8 MLB contenders.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX -0.04 Wander_Suero_WAS 71.3
XXXXX -0.59 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 24.3
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 4.16 TIER=-0.17

This is a league average relief staff and a weakness for the Nationals.

LAN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+090+ 3.34 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-RF-1B 514
+029+ 5.82 Max_Muncy_LAN 2B-1B-3B 589
XXXXX 1.39 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 549
+008+ 7.85 Cody_Bellinger_LAN RF-1B-CF 661
+064+ 3.91 Corey_Seager_LAN SS 541
XXXXX 1.32 A.J._Pollock_LAN CF-LF 342
XXXXX 0.10 Gavin_Lux_LAN 2B 82
XXXXX -1.22 Russell_Martin_LAN CR 249
XXXXX 0.00 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN none 0
Total 22.51 TIER=2.15

Around one standard deviation above average lineup.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX -1.45 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 482
XXXXX -1.13 Michael_A._Taylor_WAS CF 97
XXXXX 0.00 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS none 0
Total 19.15 TIER=1.65

A slightly less lineup than Dodgers.

Starters

Below is a dump of starters for the four NLDS teams according to our source that publishes roster data.

Braves

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 7.35 Mike_Soroka_ATL 174.7
+122+ 2.73 Julio_Teheran_ATL 174.7
+187+ 1.93 Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 112.7
XXXXX -0.15 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 117.0
Total 11.86 0.592

Cardinals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+007+ 8.04 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 196.3
+048+ 4.70 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 174.7
XXXXX 1.49 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 184.0
XXXXX 1.24 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 171.7
Total 15.47 0.596

Dodgers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 9.30 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 182.7
+025+ 6.11 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 178.3
+036+ 5.27 Walker_Buehler_LAN 182.3
+120+ 2.79 Rich_Hill_LAN 58.7
Total 23.47 0.675

This is an extremely good rotation which one would expect based on their PITCH in team status.

Nationals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

Another very good rotation.  Patrick Corbin just got tagged for 6 runs in relief to Sanchez.

That’s all for now.  A script generates these posts and I write summary blurbs.  Had to wait for lineups and didn’t get to this until late in LAN/WAS game.  We’ll just handicap the 4 games tomorrow now that rosters have been covered.  Until then ….