Category Archives: Matchups

Cubs Mets Matchup

Cubs Mets start another series tonight in New York.  Let’s see what the Mets have been up to since the Cubs last saw them 9 weeks ago.

NYN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYN 37 42 6.8 -29.1 -4.3 20190625
NYN 67 63 -9.3 24.3 6.0 20190827

Nine weeks ago Mets were -5 and today they’re +4 gaining 9 games or almost 1 game per week.  A six month baseball season has 24 weeks.  A team winning +1 per week ends the season +24 or 94 – 68.  If Mets keep this pace the next 5 weeks they’ll end this season at +8 or +10 ( a season can’t end on an odd real team WAA ).

During these 9 weeks Mets BAT went down a little but their PITCH soared as well as their UR.  Mets are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot and right behind the Cubs.  Teams that want to make it past the first round of playoffs usually excel in September.

CHN NYN 08_27_7:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 8 0.524 0.482 92 -0.31 -0.33 1.23
NYN 4 0.500 0.518 104 0.37 2.58 -1.98

Mets have a very good starter pitching tonight and a slightly better lineup based on each team’s last game.  Cubs have better relief.  Cubs lineup last game was slightly under water.  Mets’ was slightly above water.

At 0.524/0.500 in favor of Cubs, Vegas is taking a we don’t know attitude to this game.  TC Sim based on tier numbers from L, S, and R columns  has this game close to even steven as well.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.44 0.514 144.3 -0.33
Marcus_Stroman_TOT 4.43 0.638 144.3 2.58

Darvish had his ups and downs  but still above water.  Stroman is pitching like his 2017 season.

NYN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 7.37 Jacob_deGrom_NYN 162.0
+039+ 4.43 Marcus_Stroman_NYN 144.3
+081+ 2.96 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN 160.0
XXXXX 1.36 Steven_Matz_NYN 128.7
XXXXX 0.17 Zack_Wheeler_NYN 155.3
Total 16.29 0.598

Three starters in top 100.  This is a pitching staff that could breeze through NLDS — except they’ll probably have to face the Dodgers if it comes to that.

NYN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+150+ 2.02 Seth_Lugo_NYN 63.0
XXXXX 1.51 Justin_Wilson_NYN 28.3
XXXXX 0.42 Paul_Sewald_NYN 12.0
XXXXX 0.15 Luis_Avilan_NYN 25.3
XXXXX -0.13 Chris_Mazza_NYN 8.7
XXXXX -1.18 Edwin_Diaz_NYN 48.7
-169- -1.57 Jeurys_Familia_NYN 45.0
-123- -1.87 Brad_Brach_NYN 45.7
Total -0.65 TIER=-1.98

This is an under water relief staff which contradicts PITCH in team status.  The excellent starting rotation above compensates.  At 63 IP Seth Lugo  has put in the most work this season and he’s well above water ranked in top 200.  Justin Wilson, former Cub pitching well also.  Cubs need to knock a starter out in 6th inning or go extra innings to get deep into this staff.  Looks like Mets acquired Brad Brach.  Let’s see how he’s been pitching since being traded.

Brad_Brach_TOT PITCH

Date Rank WAA
0813 -174- -1.45
0817 -138- -1.62
0821 -171- -1.49
0825 -123- -1.87
0827 -123- -1.87

Brach went -0.42 with the Mets so far.

NYN Lineup 08252019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.11 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 525
XXXXX 1.39 Jeff_McNeil_NYN LF-RF-2B-3B 444
+040+ 4.49 Pete_Alonso_NYN 1B 548
+160+ 2.08 Michael_Conforto_NYN RF-CF 515
XXXXX 0.29 J.D._Davis_NYN LF-3B 352
XXXXX -0.29 Todd_Frazier_NYN 3B 403
XXXXX -0.82 Juan_Lagares_NYN CF 232
XXXXX 0.00 Rene_Rivera_NYN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Steven_Matz_NYN none 0
Total 6.03 TIER=0.37

As expected based on their close to average BAT in team status, this is a close to average lineup.  Average team lineup based on current rosters of 30 MLB teams is now +4.36 WAA.

Cubs are up on the Mets in Wild Card and behind the Cardinals in NL Central.  If Mets sweep this series they will overtake Cubs in Wild Card race too.

Not much more to say about this.  Historical playoff handicapping based upon estimated rosters coming soon.  Next Cubs status coming near the end of month 5 of this 2019 MLB season.   Until then ….

Cubs Nationals Matchup

Cubs Nationals play again this weekend at Wrigley.  Cubs got shellacked yesterday.  Let’s take a look at this Nationals team.

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 55 48 6.6 28.9 8.4 20190727
WAS 71 57 52.9 29.3 15.1 20190824

In the last 4 weeks WAS went 16-9 gaining 7 games which is a very good run.  These wins are almost entirely due to hitting as their BAT soared.  UR also way up.  It will be difficult for them to overtake Atlanta but these things have happened before to teams in September.  Let’s look at what tonight’s game looks like.

WAS CHN 08_24_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 14 0.417 0.501 X 1.89 -1.38 -2.82
CHN 10 0.600 0.499 X 0.29 0.97 1.25

Vegas has Cubs favored by almost 60% according to Vegas and Tier Combo simulation has this game almost even steven.  EV is still turned off for now.   WAS has a much better lineup than Cubs which we saw evidence with BAT in their team status.  Cubs have better pitching and surprisingly better relief.  WAS has better WAA (i.e. win/loss record).

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Joe_Ross_WAS -0.97 0.406 46.0 -1.38
Jose_Quintana_CHN 2.21 0.570 142.7 0.97

Quintana is a better pitcher than Ross this season.  If the Cubs knock out Ross early and get into WAS poor relief this game could get interesting.

WAS Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+022+ 5.23 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 161.7
+063+ 3.49 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 165.0
+120+ 2.29 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 130.0
XXXXX 0.42 Erick_Fedde_WAS 71.0
XXXXX -0.99 Joe_Ross_WAS 46.0
Total 10.44 0.582

Three top starters which can easily get a team through a 6 game divisional series.  Ross is their worst starter.  Strasburg or Corbin will most likely pitch a wild card game if it comes to that.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.21 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 57.3
XXXXX 0.48 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 12.3
XXXXX 0.34 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 32.7
XXXXX -0.21 Javy_Guerra_WAS 55.7
XXXXX -0.42 Wander_Suero_WAS 55.3
XXXXX -1.03 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 32.0
-117- -1.95 Matt_Grace_WAS 46.7
-102- -2.08 Kyle_McGowin_WAS 16.0
Total -2.66 TIER=-2.82

Relief is WAS Achilles heel as it was in past seasons.  Although we max out at +4 and -4 now,  an almost -3 tier number is 1.5 standard deviations below league average based on current team rosters.  This is around bottom of MLB.  Whether it’s at the bottom or third from the bottom doesn’t matter.  This relief staff is bad.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.78 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 417
XXXXX -0.67 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 550
+005+ 7.27 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 503
+040+ 4.35 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 519
+081+ 2.88 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 295
XXXXX -1.22 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 429
XXXXX 0.84 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 488
XXXXX -1.28 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 269
XXXXX 0.00 Joe_Ross_WAS none 0
Total 12.95 TIER=1.73

Three guys in the top 100 and almost Tier 2.00 lineup.  Tier 2 is one complete standard deviation above league average based on current team rosters.

Game starts in a few hours.  Almost have a complete historical roster dataset complete which will allow handicapping of past playoff games.  Handicapping old playoff series might be fun as we approach the 2019 playoff season.   Until then ….

Cubs Giants Matchup

Cubs Giants start a series today.  Let’s see what the Giants have been up to lately.

SFN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SFN 51 50 -32.5 -1.8 -3.5 20190723
SFN 63 62 -52.7 3.9 1.2 20190820

In the last 4 weeks Giants went 12-12 even steven, still at +1 for the season and an outside chance at a wild card if they streak the next 6 weeks.  Let’s hope they don’t start that streak today.

BAT down PITCH and UR about the same.  They should be under 0.500 based on simple run differential but real wins and losses are all that matter.

SFN CHN 08_20_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SFN 1 0.370 0.400 108 -1.56 -2.55 1.33
CHN 8 0.667 0.600 90 0.47 1.07 -0.03

Cubs have better lineup starter and real team WAA tonight.  Giants have better relief.  TC Sim has Cubs favored at 60%, Vegas has them favored exactly 2-1.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Beede_SFN -2.56 0.361 82.7 -2.55
Cole_Hamels_CHN 2.23 0.591 109.7 1.07

Cole Hamels is a much better this season between these two starters.

SFN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+075+ 2.92 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN 139.7
+084+ 2.77 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN 164.7
XXXXX 0.32 Logan_Webb_SFN 5.0
-154- -1.60 Andrew_Suarez_SFN 21.0
-061- -2.56 Tyler_Beede_SFN 82.7
Total 1.85 0.520

Hello Jeff Samardzia!  Samardzia is on course to a career year and Bumgarner is pitching very well too.  Tonight Cubs are seeing Giants’ worst starter in Beede.

SFN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+105+ 2.42 Reyes_Moronta_SFN 53.7
+141+ 2.10 Will_Smith_SFN 54.7
XXXXX 0.84 Trevor_Gott_SFN 50.7
XXXXX 0.82 Sam_Coonrod_SFN 16.0
XXXXX 0.82 Jandel_Gustave_SFN 12.0
XXXXX 0.02 Fernando_Abad_SFN 2.3
XXXXX -0.21 Tony_Watson_SFN 46.7
XXXXX -0.59 Dereck_Rodriguez_SFN 71.3
Total 6.22 TIER=1.33

This is a very capable relief staff.

SFN Lineup 08182019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+120+ 2.48 Mike_Yastrzemski_SFN LF-RF 263
XXXXX -1.03 Scooter_Gennett_SFN 2B 118
-133- -1.66 Buster_Posey_SFN CR 349
XXXXX -1.62 Brandon_Belt_SFN 1B-LF 476
XXXXX 1.01 Kevin_Pillar_SFN CF-RF 484
XXXXX -0.17 Austin_Slater_SFN RF 115
-161- -1.55 Brandon_Crawford_SFN SS 433
XXXXX -0.17 Donovan_Solano_SFN 2B-SS 171
XXXXX 0.00 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN none 0
Total -2.71 TIER=-1.56

The above is lineup from last game played.  According BAT in team status based upon seasonal runs scored SFN is very under water with respect to hitting.  The above is confirmation.

Not much more to say about these this series.  Until then ….

Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs Pirates play again.  Let’s see what the last place team in NL Central has been up to.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 45 50 -4.8 -43.9 1.0 20190719
PIT 50 70 -17.3 -50.9 -19.8 20190816

Last 4 week split they went 5-20 losing 15 games.  That is what they call in the industry a collapse.  BAT tanked, PITCH somewhat tanked, and their fielding as represented by UR tanked the most.  At -20 PIT is in wait till next year mode.  Hopefully Cubs get to see more of that horrible UR in the next three games.

CHN PIT 08_16_7:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 7 0.574 0.597 104 0.50 1.84 -0.79
PIT -20 0.444 0.403 91 0.70 -0.87 -0.72

Both lineups about the same hovering slightly above average.  Cubs have a better starter tonight and both relief squads are terrible.  TC Sim favors Cubs around 60% mostly due to their much better win/loss record.  DeltaWAA between these two teams is +27 in favor of the Cubs and the Cubs really need to sweep this series.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 3.25 0.613 129.3 1.84
Joe_Musgrove_PIT -0.40 0.486 130.0 -0.97

Hendricks had a bad outing and dropped a bit but still far ahead of Musgrove.  Since lineups and relief are around the same for both teams the main advantage for the Cubs comes from better starter and better real team WAA.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.48 Steven_Brault_PIT 70.7
XXXXX -0.27 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 130.0
XXXXX -1.32 Mitch_Keller_PIT 17.0
-160- -1.53 Trevor_Williams_PIT 104.7
-134- -1.70 Chris_Archer_PIT 118.7
Total -4.34 0.456

This is a rather terrible starting rotation that aligns with their PITCH in team status based upon seasonal runs scored against.  PIT relief isn’t much better.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+064+ 3.17 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 47.0
+156+ 1.87 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 56.3
XXXXX 0.88 Michael_Feliz_PIT 41.3
XXXXX 0.55 Keone_Kela_PIT 16.7
XXXXX 0.08 Kyle_Crick_PIT 43.7
XXXXX -1.11 Chris_Stratton_PIT 64.7
-135- -1.70 Clay_Holmes_PIT 33.0
-062- -2.46 Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT 26.0
Total 1.28 TIER=-0.72

Current league average relief staff is +2.86 so this relief staff is under water and  around  Cubs relief in total value.   PIT has a very good reliever in Vazquez and Liriano, who used to start, is also pitching well in the bullpen.  Cubs hitters will need to knock starters out early to get into the bottom of this squad.

PIT Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-059- -2.50 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 452
+165+ 1.83 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF 383
+078+ 2.88 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 495
+014+ 5.98 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 501
XXXXX 0.78 Colin_Moran_PIT 3B-2B 371
XXXXX -0.48 Melky_Cabrera_PIT RF-LF 319
-143- -1.64 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 363
XXXXX -0.65 Jacob_Stallings_PIT CR 117
XXXXX 0.00 Joe_Musgrove_PIT none 0
Total 6.20 TIER=0.70

This is tonight’s lineup and it’s quite a mix of hitters that balance out slightly above average with a Tier # of 0.70.  This valuation aligns with their slightly below BAT in team status based upon seasonal runs scored.

That is all for now.  Blast from the Past showing playoff horse races on this day for some notable Cubs seasons like 2003 and 2008 and others coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Phillies Matchup

Cubs Phillies start another series tonight.  Let’s see what the Phillies have been up to lately.

PHI Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PHI 48 46 -0.2 -22.8 5.8 20190716
PHI 60 58 -19.1 -17.2 1.0 20190813

Phillies went 12-12 the last 4 weeks breaking even.  Their BAT tanked and PITCH improved slightly.  At +2 they’re still in the hunt for a wild card but they’re in 4th place in NL East so probably won’t be able to catch Atlanta.

CHN PHI 08_13_7:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.565 0.556 98 1.04 0.04 -1.23
PHI 2 0.455 0.444 98 -0.53 0.10 -0.93

TC Sim and Vegas are in complete agreement with this game.  Lineup value is from the last game each of these two teams played which was 2 days ago.  Tonight’s lineup comes out later and I don’t want to wait.

Cubs  have a slightly better lineup, starters about the same, and both relief staffs kind of stink; both around 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current rosters. Cubs are +8 on the Phillies in the win loss columns, the only stat in baseball that matters.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.84 0.529 129.7 0.04
Jason_Vargas_TOT 0.92 0.539 105.7 0.10

Both starters around equal and both around league average according to current rosters.    Not much to  see here.

PHI Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+075+ 2.90 Aaron_Nola_PHI 147.3
XXXXX 1.01 Jason_Vargas_PHI 105.7
XXXXX 0.40 Vince_Velasquez_PHI 83.7
XXXXX -0.44 Jake_Arrieta_PHI 135.7
-006- -4.22 Drew_Smyly_PHI 75.0
Total -0.35 0.497

Drew Smyly having a bad year.  Hopefully he has to pitch in this series.  I heard Jake Arrieta might be injured.

PHI Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+195+ 1.55 Jose_Alvarez_PHI 44.7
XXXXX 1.13 Hector_Neris_PHI 48.7
XXXXX 0.73 Mike_Morin_PHI 33.0
XXXXX 0.10 Ranger_Suarez_PHI 27.0
XXXXX 0.10 Blake_Parker_PHI 43.3
XXXXX 0.04 Zach_Eflin_PHI 118.3
XXXXX -0.76 Juan_Nicasio_PHI 42.7
-140- -1.66 Nick_Pivetta_PHI 84.0
Total 1.23 TIER=-0.93

They don’t have any stellar relievers.  This is a below average relief staff but still better than Cubs’ relief.

PHI Lineup 08112019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+118+ 2.23 Bryce_Harper_PHI RF 513
XXXXX 0.34 Rhys_Hoskins_PHI 1B 513
XXXXX -0.17 Jean_Segura_PHI SS 455
+161+ 1.72 J.T._Realmuto_PHI CR 439
XXXXX -0.50 Scott_Kingery_PHI CF-3B-SS-LF 338
XXXXX 0.38 Sean_Rodriguez_PHI BAT 87
-139- -1.78 Cesar_Hernandez_PHI 2B 473
XXXXX 0.00 Jake_Arrieta_PHI none 0
XXXXX -0.67 Roman_Quinn_PHI CF 107
Total 1,55 TIER=-0.53

This is a below average lineup according to current rosters.  As a season progresses bad players move off rosters to be replaced by new guys starting at WAA=0.  This raises league average for all three categories; lineups, relief, and starters.  PHI has a +1.55 WAA but that is currently under water based upon the other 29 teams.  Tier numbers are used in simulation.

That is all for now.  Cubs are at +10 and if they get to +15 by the end of August they’ll have an average of +3 added wins per month which is what playoff contenders should be at.  Playoff horse race posted yesterday shows they’ll be underdogs to win it all this season regardless.  But MLB still makes them play the games so there’s that.

That is all for now.  Need to fix a mistake made yesterday.  Until then ….