This will be the last minor league covered.  AAA consists of two leagues; Pacific Coast League (pcl) and International (int).  More about these leagues can be read here.  Like MLB, this model combines all 30 franchise affiliates from both leagues into one bowl of data soup.  Let’s start with the Cubs affiliate.

Iowa Cubs Team Status

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
7.9	-59.4	556	610	55	59	-0.3	-2.0	Iowa_Cubs_CHN	8/10/2017
-99.8	-10.1	478	592	46	79	0.4	-4.5	Iowa_Cubs_CHN	8/22/2018

The above shows team status for last year’s last snapshot and the one taken today.  A year ago the Cubs were almost 0.500, just 4 games under.  Today they’re -33.  BAT tanked but PITCH actually improved even though it’s still underwater as well.

Top Iowa Cubs

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+081+	2.50	Kyle_Ryan_CHN	PITCH	0.696
+142+	1.89	Randy_Rosario_CHN	PITCH	0.875
+163+	1.74	Dakota_Mekkes_CHN	PITCH	0.787
+169+	1.70	Dillon_Maples_CHN	PITCH	0.705
XXXXX	1.45	Anthony_Bass_CHN	PITCH	0.713
XXXXX	1.24	James_Norwood_CHN	PITCH	0.842
XXXXX	1.13	Ryan_Court_CHN	BAT	0.555
XXXXX	1.13	David_Bote_CHN	BAT	0.582
XXXXX	0.92	Michael_Roth_CHN	PITCH	0.639
XXXXX	0.82	Mike_Freeman_CHN	BAT	0.557
XXXXX	0.82	Jason_Vosler_CHN	BAT	0.580

Kyle Ryan has been in MLB since 2014 and came to the Cubs from Detroit.  He pitched well for the Iowa Cubs this season with a rather high Win% rate.   Names in blue have played for the MLB Cubs and we saw Jason Vosler last season  and with the Smokies this season.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+043+	2.90	Jason_Vosler_CHN	BAT	0.625	aa	2017
XXXXX	0.92	Jason_Vosler_CHN	BAT	0.603	aa	2018
XXXXX	0.82	Jason_Vosler_CHN	BAT	0.580	aaa	2018

Not bad.  Maybe we’ll see him in September call ups.

Charlette Knights  Team Status

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-61.6	-44.6	489	611	46	70	-16.3	0.5	Charlotte_Knights_CHA	8/10/2017
-111.3	21.0	472	553	57	68	8.4	1.0	Charlotte_Knights_CHA	8/22/2018

Since last season BAT tanked while PITCH improved and their W-L record went from -14 to -11, almost the same.  UR way up.   The White Sox had quite the fire sale last season so it is not expected for that talent to percolate up to AAA.  That this team has improved somewhat  means their deals from two years ago may be paying dividends.  We’ll drill down into individual players below.

The above shows the Knights had a dismal UR, a team indicator for fielding as a team, last season which has dramatically improved this season.  The current MLB White Sox have the worst UR amongst all 30 MLB teams at -23.0.  The second worst in MLB is PHI with -12.0 .  It will be interesting to see if the above improvement shows up in the MLB White Sox a year from now when we do this again.  Let’s look at the top players that make up the Knights.

Top Charlette Knights

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos
+027+	3.61	Donn_Roach_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
XXXXX	-0.17	Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
+104+	2.10	Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
XXXXX	-0.42	Tyler_Danish_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
+147+	1.85	Tyler_Danish_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
XXXXX	-0.76	Spencer_Adams_CHA	PITCH	aa	2018
+156+	1.78	Spencer_Adams_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
-015-	-3.55	Dylan_Covey_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
+157+	1.76	Dylan_Covey_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
XXXXX	0.19	Michael_Kopech_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
+172+	1.70	Michael_Kopech_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
-037-	-2.96	Jordan_Guerrero_CHA	PITCH	aa	2018
+183+	1.62	Jordan_Guerrero_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
XXXXX	0.55	Xavier_Cedeno_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
XXXXX	1.53	Xavier_Cedeno_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
+198+	1.39	Ian_Hamilton_CHA	PITCH	aa	2018
XXXXX	1.18	Ian_Hamilton_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
+059+	3.02	Carlos_Rodon_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
XXXXX	0.84	Carlos_Rodon_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018
XXXXX	0.42	Aaron_Bummer_CHA	PITCH	mlb	2018
XXXXX	0.78	Aaron_Bummer_CHA	PITCH	aaa	2018

Since this is AAA, the top level minor league, players move around a lot.  The above table lists the top Knights according to their AAA value and also shows their value and rank records from other leagues they played for this season.

First thing to notice is all their top players are pitchers — which should be expected with such a high negative BAT in team status.  This means the White Sox’ hopes for next season will rely on some of the above to be able to pitch at MLB level.

The top two guys colored in green are pitching very well at the AAA level but they have been in and out of MLB over the years.  Click on Donn Roach and Jeanmar Gomez to see their career stats from baseball-reference.com.  Donn Roach even pitched in a game for the Cubs and Gomez has been around MLB since 2010 so technically he’s a veteran.

The blue colored names are mlb records.  Interesting that Jordan Guerrero tanked in AA and was promoted to AAA and has pitched well.  There is much more going on in minors than this data model can see.  This model is only a reflection upon past performance.  With September call ups around the corner we may see many of these names on CHA MLB roster soon.  Also, this guy was left out.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	Win%
+037+	1.95	Eloy_Jimenez_CHA	BAT	0.807	aplus	2017
+037+	1.74	Eloy_Jimenez_CHN	BAT	0.692	aplus	2017
+051+	2.58	Eloy_Jimenez_CHA	BAT	0.717	aa	2018
XXXXX	0.53	Eloy_Jimenez_CHA	BAT	0.557	aaa	2018

The above show our snapshot from last season as well.  This model does not compile A level however.   His win% rate shows he excelled in A+ and AA.  He might have started at A level in 2017.  He might be on the MLB team in September and most likely sometime next season depending upon how the White Sox are handling him.

Top AAA

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+001+	6.28	Tyler_O’Neill_SLN	BAT	0.942
+002+	5.92	Christian_Walker_ARI	BAT	0.834
+003+	5.90	Mike_Tauchman_COL	BAT	0.770
+004+	5.90	Kevin_Cron_ARI	BAT	0.794
+005+	5.86	Jabari_Blash_ANA	BAT	0.858
+006+	5.59	Kyle_Tucker_HOU	BAT	0.762
+007+	5.46	AJ_Reed_HOU	BAT	0.713
+008+	5.35	Cole_Irvin_PHI	PITCH	0.661
+009+	5.33	J.D._Davis_HOU	BAT	0.813
+010+	5.25	Zach_Borenstein_NYN	BAT	0.693
+011+	5.02	Adam_Plutko_CLE	PITCH	0.767
+012+	4.89	Socrates_Brito_ARI	BAT	0.713
+013+	4.60	Franmil_Reyes_SDN	BAT	0.853
+014+	4.58	Enyel_De_Los_Santos_PHI	PITCH	0.678
+015+	4.56	Ryan_Weber_TBA	PITCH	0.698
+016+	4.45	Josh_Fuentes_COL	BAT	0.659
+017+	4.45	Dakota_Hudson_SLN	PITCH	0.679
+018+	4.41	Daniel_Poncedeleon_SLN	PITCH	0.716
+019+	4.28	Brett_Nicholas_SDN	BAT	0.699
+020+	4.18	Peter_Alonso_NYN	BAT	0.822
+021+	4.16	Trevor_Oaks_KCA	PITCH	0.658
+022+	3.99	Kolby_Allard_ATL	PITCH	0.664
+023+	3.88	Jordan_Patterson_COL	BAT	0.672
+024+	3.88	Tyler_White_HOU	BAT	0.738
+025+	3.86	Robert_Stephenson_CIN	PITCH	0.654

The above is a name dump based upon  WAA weighting which is the only appropriate way to rank.  Not familiar with any of the above names except Robert Stephenson who, IIRC, pitched against the Cubs this season.  Many of the above could be professional minor league players who can dominate AAA but can’t make it in MLB.

That is all for now and perhaps minor leagues for this season.  A playoff horse race compilation needs to be made before roster expansion and that’s in a few days.  Until then ….

 

In Part 2 of this series we’ll dive down one level into A+ minor league with focus on the Myrtle Beach Pelicans (CHN) and Winston-Salem Dash (CHA).  A+ has three divisions, Florida, California, and Carolina encompassing affiliates for all 30 MLB franchises.  This model combines  data from all divisions and ranks everyone together.  More info on A+ can be found here.

Myrtle Beach Pelicans CHN

Team Status

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-7.8	17.4	551	543	69	60	-8.4	6.9	Myrtle_Beach_Pelicans_CHN	8/24/2017
-115.5	51.1	425	500	55	69	-10.7	0.2	Myrtle_Beach_Pelicans_CHN	8/202018

Last season the Pelicans were a relatively average team with a positive win/loss record.  This season their hitting tanked tremendously making them 6th among the worst of 30 franchise affiliates in  A+.  This may not bode well for the future of the Cubs or the future of their AA team, Tennessee Smokies. next season. Their pitching is very positive which we’ll see below.

Top Pelicans

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+019+	3.46	Erick_Leal_CHN	PITCH	0.782
+106+	2.04	Tyler_Peyton_CHN	PITCH	0.646
+107+	2.04	Matt_Swarmer_CHN	PITCH	0.679
+159+	1.70	Manuel_Rondon_CHN	PITCH	0.780
XXXXX	1.36	Cory_Abbott_CHN	PITCH	0.606
XXXXX	1.26	Wyatt_Short_CHN	PITCH	0.679
XXXXX	1.24	Keegan_Thompson_CHN	PITCH	0.582
XXXXX	0.78	Ryan_Kellogg_CHN	PITCH	0.549
XXXXX	0.73	Jhon_Romero_CHN	PITCH	0.575

There are many high WinPct rate pitchers above and no batters — which should be expected based upon their dismal BAT in team status.  Some of the above will filter up the ladder next season.  Since minors are development there may be some hitters that have potential but this model does not see any.

Winston-Salem Dash CHA

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-1.8	-50.5	546	625	51	78	-22.4	-4.1	Winston-Salem_Dash_CHA	8/24/2017
88.0	38.1	624	502	73	48	0.3	-4.3	Winston-Salem_Dash_CHA	8/20/2017

The White Sox A+ team has made a complete 180 in both PITCH and BAT since last season.  This does bode well for the White Sox since many of these players will filter up next season.  Let’s see the top players on this team.

Top Dash

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+026+	3.28	Blake_Rutherford_CHA	BAT	0.650
+035+	3.02	Kyle_Kubat_CHA	PITCH	0.669
+043+	2.83	Tanner_Banks_CHA	PITCH	0.650
+056+	2.58	Bernardo_Flores_CHA	PITCH	0.649
+063+	2.48	Luis_Gonzalez_CHA	BAT	0.713
+074+	2.35	Micker_Adolfo_CHA	BAT	0.634
+128+	1.89	Yermin_Mercedes_CHA	BAT	0.603
+141+	1.81	Dylan_Cease_CHA	PITCH	0.614
+145+	1.81	Zach_Thompson_CHA	PITCH	0.731
+199+	1.41	Laz_Rivera_CHA	BAT	0.637
XXXXX	1.39	Zach_Remillard_CHA	BAT	0.574
XXXXX	1.24	Tyler_Johnson_CHA	PITCH	0.750
XXXXX	1.16	Mitch_Roman_CHA	BAT	0.565
XXXXX	1.13	Luis_Alexander_Basabe_CHA	BAT	0.589
XXXXX	1.03	Alex_Call_CHA	BAT	0.584

Nice mix of batters and pitchers, all with decent WinPct rates.  The only name I recognize is Dylan Cease who we saw on their AA team.  There is one level below A+ so many of those unranked players could have spent part of this summer there.   It is inappropriate to add WAA values from two different classes of leagues because each class is their own ecosystem.  No one would incorporate AAA stats with MLB stats for the same reason you can’t incorporate A stats with A+ stats.

Top A+ Teams

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
156.5	12.1	699	540	75	50	-11.7	2.2	Rancho_Cucamonga_Quakes_LAN
54.5	72.2	594	468	64	56	0.3	-0.8	Potomac_Nationals_WAS
88.0	38.1	624	502	73	48	0.3	-4.3	Winston-Salem_Dash_CHA
-23.5	112.1	518	403	70	52	25.3	1.2	Buies_Creek_Astros_HOU
93.5	-16.0	636	551	67	54	5.3	2.2	Charlotte_Stone_Crabs_TBA

The above shows the top 5 A+ teams sorted by BAT+PITCH.  White Sox are #3 out of 30 teams and it looks like Houston has another top notch team in their farm system.   This means they should be dominant for many years as these players filter up.  We haven’t looked at AAA yet however.  Looks like the Dodgers are grooming a bunch of hitters for the future.

Bottom A+ Teams

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-12.5	-89.0	532	627	58	65	2.3	4.2	Frederick_Keys_BAL
-23.0	-77.0	517	642	53	72	-24.7	-0.3	Modesto_Nuts_SEA
-56.5	-42.0	486	561	52	65	21.3	2.2	Bradenton_Marauders_PIT
-136.5	41.0	402	492	50	71	7.3	-1.8	St._Lucie_Mets_NYN
-116.5	26.0	416	503	47	71	11.3	-7.8	Florida_Fire_Frogs_ATL
8.5	-81.8	548	640	53	72	-17.7	-0.8	San_Jose_Giants_SFN
-115.5	51.1	425	500	55	69	-10.7	0.2	Myrtle_Beach_Pelicans_CHN

The above is sorted on combined BAT and PITCH.  Let’s look at where the Pelicans rank in A+ with respect to PITCH only.

Top A+ PITCH teams

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-23.5	112.1	518	403	70	52	25.3	1.2	Buies_Creek_Astros_HOU
-68.5	75.0	476	485	65	56	-19.7	4.2	Jupiter_Hammerheads_MIA
54.5	72.2	594	468	64	56	0.3	-0.8	Potomac_Nationals_WAS
-115.5	51.1	425	500	55	69	-10.7	0.2	Myrtle_Beach_Pelicans_CHN

The Pelicans may be one of the worst A+ teams this season overall but the above indicates the Cubs are stacking that team with quality pitching prospects so it’s not all bad.

Top A+ BAT teams

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
170.5	-155.0	720	695	65	60	0.3	9.2	Lancaster_JetHawks_COL
156.5	12.1	699	540	75	50	-11.7	2.2	Rancho_Cucamonga_Quakes_LAN
93.5	-16.0	636	551	67	54	5.3	2.2	Charlotte_Stone_Crabs_TBA
88.0	38.1	624	502	73	48	0.3	-4.3	Winston-Salem_Dash_CHA

And the White Sox appear to be stacking the Winston-Salem Dash with hitting prospects.  The above two tables represent the top teams of all 30 MLB franchise affiliates in A+.

Top A+ Players

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+001+	5.73	Cristian_Santana_LAN	BAT	0.715
+002+	5.19	Vince_Fernandez_COL	BAT	0.719
+003+	4.93	Bobby_Dalbec_BOS	BAT	0.726
+004+	4.79	Colton_Welker_COL	BAT	0.698
+005+	4.64	Spenser_Watkins_DET	PITCH	0.686
+006+	4.56	Cam_Roegner_MIL	PITCH	0.689
+007+	4.30	Nate_Mondou_OAK	BAT	0.711
+008+	3.88	Ian_Anderson_ATL	PITCH	0.675
+009+	3.80	Conor_Harber_MIL	PITCH	0.679
+010+	3.65	Cody_Thomas_LAN	BAT	0.644
+011+	3.65	Jesus_Sanchez_TBA	BAT	0.685
+012+	3.63	Patrick_Murphy_TOR	PITCH	0.619
+013+	3.57	Tyler_Mapes_WAS	PITCH	0.742
+014+	3.57	Ramon_Hernandez_ARI	BAT	0.671
+015+	3.55	Tyler_Erwin_BAL	PITCH	0.766
+016+	3.53	Jake_Walsh_SLN	PITCH	0.684
+017+	3.53	Rylan_Bannon_LAN	BAT	0.668
+018+	3.51	Nathaniel_Lowe_TBA	BAT	0.806
+019+	3.46	Erick_Leal_CHN	PITCH	0.782
+020+	3.46	Roberto_Ramos_COL	BAT	0.761
+021+	3.42	Logan_Webb_SFN	PITCH	0.708
+022+	3.40	Brandon_Bailey_HOU	PITCH	0.657
+023+	3.38	Omar_Estevez_LAN	BAT	0.630
+024+	3.32	Jo_Adell_ANA	BAT	0.743
+025+	3.30	Tristan_Gray_TBA	BAT	0.644

The above are the top 25 players sorted by WAA value with their WinPct rate in the last column.  It is inappropriate to use rate as a value for sorting.  The purpose of this column is to provide context.

There could be (and most likely are) many very good prospects who didn’t have enough playing time to make this list.   This model generates these lists for MLB because that’s where the cream always rises to the top.  Player lists for minors are for informational purposes only.    Many of the above are probably part of top prospect lists like Baseball Prospectus.

The next part to this series will cover AAA, the final minor league before MLB.  Then we’ll meander into showing  where are they now cross referencing  our minor league snapshots from last season to this season.  Until then ….

This is the first of a many part series covering minor leagues.  Focus will be for players on Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox.  Baseball Prospectus has a more concise run down on top prospects.  I thought of cross reference data with theirs but that would have to be done manually as this data model gets no data from that site nor does it have code to process it

This series will look at these minors through the lens of this data model only — the exact same model used for MLB players.  In the future it’s possible, and may be necessary, to incorporate more minor league data into this model.  Currently only one minor league snapshot is taken per year and this is it.

It has been a year since we last looked into minor leagues.  I have been reticent about applying this data model to minor leagues because their focus is player development.  The purpose of this model is to assign value to players based upon run production.  Minor league players typically move from league to league making their value more nebulous.  There are probably much better models using advanced play by play metrics that can better determine which players have a chance in MLB.

A player who excels in the minors has no guarantee of surviving the brutality of MLB talent.  Great players, however, should rise to the top of every league but great players are relatively rare.  The vast majority of MLB resides in the muddy middle of talent.  That talent or lack thereof is what either propels a team into the playoffs or relegates them to watching it  on TV like the rest of us.

This model has a specific purpose of accurately reflecting past value — something sorely lacking in modern baseball statistics.   A franchise that has minor league teams that are terrible probably need to look into why and probably have a dearth of talent waiting in the wings for next season. This could be a problem as we saw last season with the dismal season the White Sox were having with all their minor league affiliates.  White Sox were sellers at the trade deadline so we should see some improvement in all their teams.  Not sure what the Cubs have been doing with minor league acquisitions but these next bunch of reports will take a look see into their farm system which may forecast what we should expect in upcoming seasons.

AA has three different divisions, Eastern, Texas, and Southern containing affiliates who  represent all 30 current MLB franchises.   Like this model does with MLB, all divisions in all minor league classes gets lumped together and all players get ranked together.  More info on these minor leagues can be read here , an article written almost 5 years ago now.

The purpose of this data model is to simplify a player down to rank/value (WAA).  If you want to look at tables upon tables of numbers, baseball-reference.com has an excellent informative and easy to navigate site.    This series of articles represents a snapshot for commentary.

So, without further adieu, let’s get started with the Tennessee Smokies, the only  team I follow on Twitter.

Tennessee Smokies CHN

Below are team statuses from the most recent snapshot and the last snapshot taken last season for Cubs AA affiliate.

Team Status

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-44.0	48.2	464	452	62	57	4.7	3.3	Tennessee_Smokies_CHN	8/15/2017
-80.1	-33.8	449	563	43	75	9.4	-9.4	Tennessee_Smokies_CHN	8/16/2017

Last season this team was a respectable +5.  Not first place respectable but still  above average.    Both PITCH and BAT are completely terrible and, although we don’t dwell on standings here, they’re almost the worst affiliate of all 30 franchises in AA class baseball.  If I can subtract W-L in my head correctly that looks like -32.  At least they have a decent UR which indicates good fielding fundamentals so there’s that.

They do, however have a fun promotion department.  Here’s one their baseball promotions.

LOL.  Free as in beer is a common meme in reference to  software development like that  used to write this log book.  Note that it lasts only from first pitch until opposing team scores.  Don’t have enough data to run a matchup analysis on this but just looking at the team status fans better drink fast before this promotion ends after whoever they play scores. 

Top Tennessee Smokies

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos
+144+	1.70	Randy_Rosario_CHN	PITCH	0.853
+156+	1.62	Kyle_Ryan_CHN	PITCH	0.643
+160+	1.60	Dillon_Maples_CHN	PITCH	0.702
+161+	1.60	Dakota_Mekkes_CHN	PITCH	0.788
XXXXX	1.36	David_Bote_CHN	BAT	0.599
XXXXX	1.24	Ryan_Court_CHN	BAT	0.564
XXXXX	1.24	Anthony_Bass_CHN	PITCH	0.701
XXXXX	0.92	Jason_Vosler_CHN	BAT	0.603

Many of those players above have already played on the MLB Cubs and they probably are listed on the Iowa Cubs AAA roster as well.  Unlike for our MLB reports, a WinPct rate is shown.  See here for how that’s calculated.  The WAA value stat requires playing time to accumulate and since many minor league players move from league to league they can’t accumulate enough value to gain in rank.  Although many stat heads like to rank on rates like BA, OPS, wRC+ etc. etc. that is inappropriate.  We show it here for context only.  You can’t say since you shot two under par for six holes that means you should shoot 6 under for 18 holes.   In the minors teams want to promote or demote and not wait an entire season so they have to guess based upon rates.  In that case your 6 hole split in golf is all the data they have to make a decision.

Also not sure the dates these Cubs played for this team.  We saw Jason Vosler last season.

Birmingham Barons CHA

Team Status

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-65.6	-20.7	297	395	33	54	-7.6	-3.9	Birmingham_Barons_CHA	7/11/2017
-12.6	-8.9	517	552	57	62	-4.6	-8.9	Birmingham_Barons_CHA	8/16/2018

The White Sox’ AA team has improved since last season.  Let’s have a look see as to their top valued players according to this data model.

Top Birmingham Barons

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos
+039+	2.90	Colton_Turner_CHA	PITCH	0.835
+051+	2.58	Eloy_Jimenez_CHA	BAT	0.717
+074+	2.35	Dylan_Cease_CHA	PITCH	0.728
+106+	1.95	Dane_Dunning_CHA	PITCH	0.642
+145+	1.68	Bernardo_Flores_CHA	PITCH	0.623
+169+	1.53	Zach_Thompson_CHA	PITCH	0.737
+193+	1.41	Ryan_Burr_CHA	PITCH	0.648
+198+	1.39	Ian_Hamilton_CHA	PITCH	0.747
XXXXX	1.20	Tanner_Banks_CHA	PITCH	0.632
XXXXX	1.07	Brandon_Brennan_CHA	PITCH	0.576
XXXXX	1.07	Jordan_Stephens_CHA	PITCH	0.621
XXXXX	0.92	Seby_Zavala_CHA	BAT	0.576

Except for Jimenez who the Cubs traded last season for Jose Quintana, not sure who any of these players are.  Lots of high numbers in the rate column and lots of players in the top 100 and top 200 of this league.  This could be a very good sign for the future of the White Sox.  We’ll see if this improvement holds true in A+ and AAA class minor leagues in subsequent parts to this series.

Top AA players

Below is a table listing the top 25 valued players in AA according to this data model.  Again, ranking in minors is not like ranking in MLB because players move around a lot. A player who plays well at this level is not guaranteed to play well at the next level.  Dominance in a league shows capability for that class level of baseball.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos
+001+	5.21	Will_Craig_PIT	BAT	0.717
+002+	4.87	Joey_Curletta_SEA	BAT	0.695
+003+	4.85	Vladimir_Guerrero_TOR	BAT	0.850
+004+	4.68	Jacob_Scavuzzo_LAN	BAT	0.797
+005+	4.58	Cavan_Biggio_TOR	BAT	0.687
+006+	4.47	Zack_Brown_MIL	PITCH	0.680
+007+	4.43	Yordan_Alvarez_HOU	BAT	0.948
+008+	4.43	Taylor_Widener_ARI	PITCH	0.667
+009+	4.18	Peter_Lambert_COL	PITCH	0.703
+010+	4.16	Jose_Rojas_ANA	BAT	0.727
+011+	3.82	Mike_King_NYA	PITCH	0.710
+012+	3.74	Jeff_McNeil_NYN	BAT	0.798
+013+	3.67	Pablo_Lopez_MIA	PITCH	0.878
+014+	3.67	Keegan_Akin_BAL	PITCH	0.634
+015+	3.65	Logan_Allen_SDN	PITCH	0.636
+016+	3.63	Erik_Swanson_NYA	PITCH	0.883
+017+	3.53	Nick_Solak_TBA	BAT	0.634
+018+	3.53	Caleb_Frare_NYA	PITCH	0.864
+019+	3.44	Jamie_Westbrook_ARI	BAT	0.649
+020+	3.42	Ty_France_SDN	BAT	0.637
+021+	3.32	Matt_Hall_DET	PITCH	0.762
+022+	3.32	Will_Smith_LAN	BAT	0.708
+023+	3.30	Austen_Williams_WAS	PITCH	0.787
+024+	3.28	Lane_Thomas_SLN	BAT	0.645
+025+	3.21	Jesus_Luzardo_OAK	PITCH	0.684

Not sure who any of these players are either.  Pretty sure many of them are in a top  prospect list like this.

Top 5 AA Teams

The following are the top 5 teams based upon seasonal run differential.  In MLB, late in the season, run differential does not matter as much as current roster value.  We don’t follow minors day to day nor have current rosters nor care who wins or loses.  The following tables merely sorts on the sum of BAT+PITCH which is derived from team run differential.

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
63.4	66.1	601	462	74	46	10.4	-0.9	Corpus_Christi_Hooks_HOU
41.4	70.3	579	484	67	52	-15.6	-0.9	Akron_RubberDucks_CLE
73.4	16.1	609	502	67	53	20.4	-2.9	Montgomery_Biscuits_TBA
58.4	13.3	599	526	67	49	-0.6	2.1	New_Hampshire_Fisher_Cats_TOR
6.9	59.3	547	473	66	53	6.4	1.6	San_Antonio_Missions_SDN

Houston has a pretty solid AA team to go with their pretty solid MLB team which won a World Series last season.  They have a decent shot at winning another one this year.  They must be doing something right in Houston. Below shows top AA players for HOU .

Corpus Christi Hooks HOU.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+007+	4.43	Yordan_Alvarez_HOU	BAT	0.948
+026+	3.17	Cionel_Perez_HOU	PITCH	0.709
+032+	3.02	Ryan_Hartman_HOU	PITCH	0.629
+041+	2.88	Taylor_Jones_HOU	BAT	0.667
+047+	2.67	Carmen_Benedetti_HOU	BAT	0.691
+070+	2.37	Corbin_Martin_HOU	PITCH	0.623
+094+	2.08	Lorenzo_Quintana_HOU	BAT	0.669

Seven guys in top 100, twice the average for 30 teams wtih very high WinPct rates.

Bottom 5 AA Teams

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
-23.6	-121.8	509	649	52	69	11.4	-5.9	Frisco_RoughRiders_TEX
-80.1	-33.8	449	563	43	75	9.4	-9.4	Tennessee_Smokies_CHN
-61.6	-44.9	479	563	54	63	20.4	2.1	Hartford_Yard_Goats_COL
-78.6	-22.7	461	565	47	70	-3.6	1.1	Jacksonville_Jumbo_Shrimp_MIA
20.9	-85.8	564	620	58	62	4.4	4.6	Northwest_Arkansas_Naturals_KCA

There are all kinds of ways to sort this list. The number of runs scored and runs scored against are related to a team’s wins and losses and reflect upon the value of talent playing throughout the entire season — not necessarily who is on their current roster.

Only looking at the above tables, it appears the Cubs may be running out of minor league talent. Hopefully guys in A+ can rectify that situation next season. In Part 2 of this series we’ll go down one level and look at the Cubs and White Sox A+ team and more name dumps. Until then ….

Here is what we said during a Tennessee Smokies status report on Aug 16.

Jen Ho Tseng went from aa to aaa and is pitching well for Iowa right now.  We’ll see if the MLB Cubs try him out in September.

And tonight he starts in Wrigley Field against the Mets.  What does the Ouija Board think of this?

DATE 09_14 8:05_PM NYN CHN
LINEAWAY NYN [ 0.357 ] < 0.312 >
STARTAWAY -0.46(0.475) Seth_Lugo_NYN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.683 ] < 0.722 >
STARTHOME 0.00(NA) Jen-Ho_Tseng_CHN


Cubs have an expected probability of 0.72.  According to our deltaWAA table  the Cubs should be at 0.65 so there are other factors involved pushing the line more towards the Cubs.  The NA in parenthesis means we have no MLB stats on Jen-Ho Tseng and we can’t use AAA or AA stats which were good.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	Win%
+096+	2.12	Jen-Ho_Tseng_CHN	PITCH	0.606	aa
+169+	1.68	Jen-Ho_Tseng_CHN	PITCH	0.752	aaa

In the minors we add Win% showing the rate.  Jen-Ho Tseng split the season in AA and AAA and still made top 200 in both leagues.  The rate shows he played even better in Iowa.  The above is data from our August 16 report.

Good luck to Tseng tonight.  The Cubs will need more good pitchers next season.   You can’t have too many pitchers.

Today we’ll look at the state of the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, the Cubs A+ minor league team.  This will be the last of minor league reports until perhaps the off season.  Below are team statuses from today and the last time we did this on July 16.

BAT	PITCH	Rs	Ra	W	L	UR	LR	TeamID
4.2	19.3	401	385	51	40	-10.6	3.4	Myrtle_Beach_Pelicans_CHN	7/16/2017
-7.8	17.4	551	543	69	60	-8.4	6.9	Myrtle_Beach_Pelicans_CHN	8/24/2017

BAT went down and PITCH is about even and the Pelicans went 18-20 losing two games.  Let’s look at their top players.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+030+	3.07	Michael_Rucker_CHN	PITCH	0.666
+050+	2.58	Pedro_Araujo_CHN	PITCH	0.696
+078+	2.29	Dakota_Mekkes_CHN	PITCH	0.776
+096+	2.12	Justin_Steele_CHN	PITCH	0.597
+120+	1.74	Eloy_Jimenez_CHN	BAT	0.692
+164+	1.66	Adbert_Alzolay_CHN	PITCH	0.591
+165+	1.66	Duncan_Robinson_CHN	PITCH	0.688
+169+	1.64	Bryant_Flete_CHN	BAT	0.605
+177+	1.62	Craig_Brooks_CHN	PITCH	0.859
XXXXX	1.39	James_Norwood_CHN	PITCH	0.660
XXXXX	1.34	Eddy_Martinez_CHN	BAT	0.556
XXXXX	1.34	Dillon_Maples_CHN	PITCH	0.693
XXXXX	1.24	Matt_Rose_CHN	BAT	0.594

This starts to get complicated later in the season when so many players move around.  The players highlighted in tan were traded to the White Sox for Jose Quintana.  Their WAAs for CHN are frozen and they have a new entry for CHA.   Here are their lines with both teams.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+120+	1.95	Eloy_Jimenez_CHA	BAT	0.807
+120+	1.74	Eloy_Jimenez_CHN	BAT	0.692
+169+	1.64	Bryant_Flete_CHN	BAT	0.605
+169+	-1.11	Bryant_Flete_CHA	BAT	0.362
XXXXX	1.24	Matt_Rose_CHN	BAT	0.594
XXXXX	1.07	Matt_Rose_CHA	BAT	0.694

The Ranking algorithm currently treats all player entries as separate.  It should add the two WAA values but these minor league scripts have been cobbled together and don’t do that yet.  The WinPct is the important column in this table and you can see Eloy Jimenez and Matt Rose have turned on the juice after moving to the White Sox.    Bryant Flete posted negative value since moving over.

The names in green in the Cubs’ table are those players who were promoted to AA.   All players in that table have decent WinPct numbers showing they are hitting or pitching well above average in A+ right now.  We don’t have access to minor league rosters.   The above are historical data.

Below are the top White Sox players in their Winston-Salem Dash A+ team

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+069+	2.37	Louie_Lechich_CHA	PITCH	0.691
+070+	2.37	Ian_Hamilton_CHA	PITCH	0.728
+119+	1.95	Seby_Zavala_CHA	BAT	0.703
+120+	1.95	Eloy_Jimenez_CHA	BAT	0.807
+149+	1.74	Tanner_Banks_CHA	PITCH	0.591
+178+	1.60	Zack_Collins_CHA	BAT	0.572
XXXXX	1.34	Alec_Hansen_CHA	PITCH	0.603

Not sure who any of these players are other than Eloy Jimenez.    Now let’s look at the top 25 ranked players in A+.  These top players played long enough in A+ to accumulate value.  It doesn’t necessarily mean they are top prospects.

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	WinPct
+001+	6.34	Wes_Rogers_COL	BAT	0.756
+002+	6.03	Sam_Hilliard_COL	BAT	0.713
+003+	5.29	Michael_Chavis_BOS	BAT	0.906
+004+	5.19	Yonathan_Daza_COL	BAT	0.692
+005+	5.17	Garrett_Hampson_COL	BAT	0.678
+006+	5.17	Seth_Brown_OAK	BAT	0.688
+007+	4.83	Luke_Raley_LAN	BAT	0.688
+008+	4.64	DJ_Peters_LAN	BAT	0.665
+009+	4.51	Ibandel_Isabel_LAN	BAT	0.692
+010+	4.47	Brendan_Rodgers_COL	BAT	0.887
+011+	4.20	Brian_Mundell_COL	BAT	0.768
+012+	4.18	Austin_Allen_SDN	BAT	0.669
+013+	3.99	Corbin_Burnes_MIL	PITCH	0.799
+014+	3.95	Matt_Hall_DET	PITCH	0.672
+015+	3.93	Ademar_Rifaela_BAL	BAT	0.665
+016+	3.91	Beau_Burrows_DET	PITCH	0.800
+017+	3.88	Sam_Clay_MIN	PITCH	0.791
+018+	3.72	Brett_Siddall_OAK	BAT	0.663
+019+	3.53	Hamlet_Marte_COL	BAT	0.770
+020+	3.51	Aramis_Garcia_SFN	BAT	0.694
+021+	3.49	Zack_Littell_NYA	PITCH	0.720
+022+	3.49	Brett_Sullivan_TBA	BAT	0.694
+023+	3.42	Jose_Taveras_PHI	PITCH	0.651
+024+	3.36	Roberto_Ramos_COL	BAT	0.635
+025+	3.32	Tyler_Pike_ATL	PITCH	0.714

Eloy Jimenz had a total of around +3.75 so he would have made the top 25 this year.  Next season many of these players (if not all) will be on an AA team somewhere.

That is all for A+ and minor league reports for this season.  Perhaps in the off season when trading starts we’ll run through AAA, AA, and A+ once again.  Cubs start a new series with the Phillies tomorrow and then it’s another Saturday and update on Cubs team status.  Until then….