Category Archives: Minor Leagues

Who are these new guys? Part 4

The days have been flying by and I haven’t been keeping up with this so let’s do another look at new guys.  The below is just a table dump which I had to do manually looking at box scores finding names I don’t recognize on CHN.  Some players are missing from below due to not playing in A+ , AA, or AAA which is normal.  I only took a snapshot of last 2 days so missed a bunch of games.   In part 3 CHA players were shown because the Cubs played them.  All players below belong to the Cubbies.

Not much commentary because I do not know any of these players other than the numbers spit out by this data model.

Rowan Wick

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.46 Rowan_Wick_SDN PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 0.92 Rowan_Wick_SDN PITCH 0.707 aaa 25
2018 XXXXX 0.61 Rowan_Wick_SDN PITCH 0.588 aa 25
2017 XXXXX -0.42 Rowan_Wick_SLN PITCH 0.387 aaa 24
2017 XXXXX 0.88 Rowan_Wick_SLN PITCH 0.682 aa 24
2016 XXXXX -0.17 Rowan_Wick_SLN PITCH 0.461 aa 23
2016 +196+ 1.64 Rowan_Wick_SLN PITCH 0.799 aplus 23

George Kontos

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.15 George_Kontos_TOT PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX -0.38 George_Kontos_PIT PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 0.08 George_Kontos_CLE PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 1.16 George_Kontos_CLE PITCH 0.826 aaa 33
2017 XXXXX 1.49 George_Kontos_TOT PITCH XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.59 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.86 George_Kontos_PIT PITCH XXX mlb
2016 +168+ 1.99 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH XXX mlb
2015 +086+ 2.79 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX 0.73 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +103+ 2.48 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH 0.734 aaa 29
2013 XXXXX -0.65 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX -0.04 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH 0.492 aaa 28
2012 XXXXX 1.55 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH XXX mlb
2012 +190+ 1.87 George_Kontos_SFN PITCH 0.765 aaa 27
2011 XXXXX 0.13 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH XXX mlb
2011 +040+ 4.39 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH 0.721 aaa 26
2010 XXXXX 0.50 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH 0.570 aa 25
2010 XXXXX 0.38 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH 0.666 aplus 25
2009 XXXXX 1.26 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH 0.611 aaa 24
2009 XXXXX 0.63 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH 0.640 aa 24
2008 XXXXX 1.91 George_Kontos_NYA PITCH 0.557 aa 23

Alberto Baldonado

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.94 Alberto_Baldonado_CHN PITCH 0.425 aaa 25
2017 -100- -2.35 Alberto_Baldonado_NYN PITCH 0.256 aaa 24
2017 +172+ 1.55 Alberto_Baldonado_NYN PITCH 0.918 aa 24
2016 XXXXX -1.24 Alberto_Baldonado_NYN PITCH 0.362 aa 23
2016 XXXXX 1.43 Alberto_Baldonado_NYN PITCH 0.833 aplus 23

Zach Borenstein

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +010+ 5.25 Zach_Borenstein_NYN BAT 0.693 aaa 27
2017 +003+ 7.56 Zach_Borenstein_ARI BAT 0.835 aaa 26
2016 +068+ 2.81 Zach_Borenstein_ARI BAT 0.637 aaa 25
2015 XXXXX -0.59 Zach_Borenstein_ARI BAT 0.286 aaa 24
2015 +044+ 3.23 Zach_Borenstein_ARI BAT 0.690 aa 24
2014 XXXXX 0.46 Zach_Borenstein_ANA BAT 0.572 aaa 23
2014 XXXXX 0.88 Zach_Borenstein_ARI BAT 0.709 aaa 23
2014 XXXXX 0.42 Zach_Borenstein_ANA BAT 0.539 aa 23
2014 XXXXX 0.44 Zach_Borenstein_ARI BAT 0.583 aa 23
2013 +003+ 6.97 Zach_Borenstein_ANA BAT 0.788 aplus 22

Not sure how Theo and Jed acquired this guy from the Mets.  He hit very well in AAA the last two years.  That doesn’t mean he can hit in MLB though but it’s a good sign.

Vimael Machin

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -1.09 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.429 aa 24
2018 XXXXX 0.13 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.518 aplus 24
2017 XXXXX 0.10 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.515 aplus 23
2016 XXXXX 0.25 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT NA aaa 22

Roberto Caro

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -163- -1.68 Roberto_Caro_CHN BAT 0.307 aplus 24
2017 XXXXX -0.76 Roberto_Caro_CHN BAT 0.144 aa 23
2017 XXXXX 0.04 Roberto_Caro_CHN BAT 0.509 aplus 23
2015 XXXXX -0.02 Roberto_Caro_CHN BAT NA aaa 21

Aramis Ademan

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -131- -1.93 Aramis_Ademan_CHN BAT 0.418 aplus 19

Connor Myers

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -1.05 Connor_Myers_CHN BAT 0.359 aa 24
2018 XXXXX -1.28 Connor_Myers_CHN BAT 0.409 aplus 24
2017 -128- -1.89 Connor_Myers_CHN BAT 0.378 aplus 23

Christian Donahue

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.08 Christian_Donahue_CHN BAT NA aaa 23
2018 XXXXX 0.23 Christian_Donahue_CHN BAT 0.596 aplus 23

Cristhian Adames

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.13 Cristhian_Adames_MIA BAT 0.494 aaa 26
2017 XXXXX -0.25 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 1.45 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT 0.577 aaa 25
2016 -174- -1.70 Cristhian_Adames_COL SS-2B-3B XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.61 Cristhian_Adames_COL SS XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.13 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT 0.495 aaa 23
2014 XXXXX -0.23 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX -0.65 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT 0.423 aaa 22
2014 XXXXX -0.57 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT 0.471 aa 22
2013 -140- -1.87 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT 0.419 aa 21
2012 XXXXX 0.61 Cristhian_Adames_COL BAT 0.524 aplus 20

Matt Carasiti

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2017 XXXXX -0.08 Matt_Carasiti_CHN PITCH 0.481 aaa 25
2017 XXXXX 1.39 Matt_Carasiti_COL PITCH 0.706 aaa 25
2016 -155- -1.81 Matt_Carasiti_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 1.36 Matt_Carasiti_COL PITCH 0.657 aa 24
2015 XXXXX 0.71 Matt_Carasiti_COL PITCH 0.556 aplus 23

Jordan Minch

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 0.00 Jordan_Minch_CHN PITCH 0.500 aa 24
2018 XXXXX 0.19 Jordan_Minch_CHN PITCH 0.535 aplus 24
2017 -173- -1.57 Jordan_Minch_CHN PITCH 0.277 aplus 23
2016 XXXXX 0.84 Jordan_Minch_CHN PITCH 0.610 aplus 22

Mike Zagurski

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 0.82 Mike_Zagurski_MIL PITCH 0.592 aaa 35
2017 XXXXX -0.19 Mike_Zagurski_DET PITCH 0.420 aaa 34
2017 XXXXX 0.67 Mike_Zagurski_DET PITCH 0.681 aa 34
2014 XXXXX 0.61 Mike_Zagurski_CLE PITCH 0.668 aaa 31
2014 +086+ 2.65 Mike_Zagurski_TOR PITCH 0.769 aaa 31
2013 -127- -1.95 Mike_Zagurski_TOT PITCH XXX mlb
2013 -127- -1.57 Mike_Zagurski_PIT PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 0.69 Mike_Zagurski_NYA PITCH 0.618 aaa 30
2013 XXXXX 0.92 Mike_Zagurski_PIT PITCH 0.697 aaa 30
2012 XXXXX -1.30 Mike_Zagurski_ARI PITCH XXX mlb
2011 XXXXX -0.13 Mike_Zagurski_PHI PITCH XXX mlb
2011 +133+ 2.54 Mike_Zagurski_PHI PITCH 0.710 aaa 28
2010 XXXXX -1.03 Mike_Zagurski_PHI PITCH XXX mlb
2010 XXXXX 1.45 Mike_Zagurski_PHI PITCH 0.625 aaa 27
2009 XXXXX 0.42 Mike_Zagurski_PHI PITCH 0.536 aa 26

OK.  Enough of that for awhile.  Still 3 more weeks of spring training so there might be a part 5 or more.  Getting close to finishing the code to do seasonal simulations which will make for some interesting posts during the dead time in April when there isn’t enough data to compile player rankings.  Until then ….

 

Who are these new guys? Part 2

Another game and another bunch of CHN new guys.  Since I have to copy/paste search tables here manually I’m not sure if I can keep this up every day.  Do not know who most of these players are and a couple like Bethencourt haven’t made it to A+, so under our radar.  Tables should speak for themselves but tl;dr  most of the below have issues.

Table format the same as Part 1.   These tables probably should be auto outputted from a searchable web page.

Vimeal Machin

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -1.09 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.429 aa 24
2018 XXXXX 0.13 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.518 aplus 24
2017 XXXXX 0.10 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.515 aplus 23
2016 XXXXX 0.25 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT NA aaa 22

Yasiel Balaguert

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -154- -1.57 Yasiel_Balaguert_CHN BAT 0.438 aa 25
2017 XXXXX 0.99 Yasiel_Balaguert_CHN BAT 0.537 aa 24
2016 +064+ 2.96 Yasiel_Balaguert_CHN BAT 0.597 aplus 23

P.J. Higgins

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.84 P.J._Higgins_CHN BAT 0.399 aa 25
2018 XXXXX -0.59 P.J._Higgins_CHN BAT 0.459 aplus 25
2017 -025- -3.30 P.J._Higgins_CHN BAT 0.330 aplus 24

Jose Cardona

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -1.05 Jose_Cardona_TEX BAT 0.389 aaa 24
2018 XXXXX -0.63 Jose_Cardona_TEX BAT 0.445 aa 24
2017 XXXXX -0.06 Jose_Cardona_TEX BAT NA aaa 23
2017 XXXXX -0.71 Jose_Cardona_TEX BAT 0.471 aa 23
2016 +053+ 3.19 Jose_Cardona_TEX BAT 0.635 aplus 22
2014 XXXXX -0.32 Jose_Cardona_TEX BAT NA aplus 20

Chesny Young

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -139- -1.76 Chesny_Young_CHN BAT 0.382 aaa 25
2017 -067- -2.86 Chesny_Young_CHN BAT 0.384 aaa 24
2016 -058- -2.48 Chesny_Young_CHN BAT 0.414 aa 23
2015 XXXXX -0.40 Chesny_Young_CHN BAT 0.483 aplus 22

Jesse Hodges

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -041- -3.00 Jesse_Hodges_CHN BAT 0.327 aa 24
2017 XXXXX 0.40 Jesse_Hodges_CHN BAT 0.516 aplus 23
2016 XXXXX -0.25 Jesse_Hodges_CHN BAT 0.458 aplus 22

Christian Bergman

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.53 Christian_Bergman_SEA PITCH XXX mlb
2018 -030- -3.36 Christian_Bergman_SEA PITCH 0.378 aaa 30
2017 XXXXX -0.82 Christian_Bergman_SEA PITCH XXX mlb
2017 -163- -1.81 Christian_Bergman_SEA PITCH 0.405 aaa 29
2016 -082- -2.39 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.50 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH 0.544 aaa 28
2015 XXXXX -1.16 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 0.48 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH NA aaa 27
2014 -061- -2.71 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX 0.36 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH 0.518 aaa 26
2014 XXXXX 0.19 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH NA aa 26
2013 +172+ 1.64 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH 0.543 aa 25
2012 XXXXX 1.30 Christian_Bergman_COL PITCH 0.536 aplus 24

Kyle Ryan

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +081+ 2.50 Kyle_Ryan_CHN PITCH 0.696 aaa 26
2017 XXXXX -0.46 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX -0.69 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH 0.431 aaa 25
2016 XXXXX 1.51 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.65 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH NA aaa 24
2015 XXXXX -0.69 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.53 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH 0.477 aaa 23
2014 XXXXX 0.27 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +133+ 2.10 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH 0.786 aaa 22
2014 -098- -1.97 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH 0.430 aa 22
2013 +041+ 3.80 Kyle_Ryan_DET PITCH 0.620 aplus 21

Rob Scahill

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.15 Rob_Scahill_CHA PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX -0.84 Rob_Scahill_CHA PITCH 0.431 aaa 31
2017 XXXXX -0.04 Rob_Scahill_MIL PITCH XXX mlb
2017 +159+ 1.89 Rob_Scahill_MIL PITCH 0.831 aaa 30
2016 XXXXX 0.65 Rob_Scahill_TOT PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX -0.10 Rob_Scahill_PIT PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.76 Rob_Scahill_MIL PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX -0.13 Rob_Scahill_MIL PITCH NA aaa 29
2016 XXXXX -0.00 Rob_Scahill_PIT PITCH 0.500 aaa 29
2015 XXXXX 0.86 Rob_Scahill_PIT PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.02 Rob_Scahill_PIT PITCH NA aaa 28
2015 XXXXX 0.25 Rob_Scahill_PIT PITCH NA aa 28
2014 XXXXX -0.36 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX 0.06 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH 0.505 aaa 27
2013 XXXXX -0.94 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX -0.27 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH 0.474 aaa 26
2012 XXXXX 0.61 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH XXX mlb
2012 -018- -4.62 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH 0.363 aaa 25
2011 XXXXX 0.76 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH 0.521 aa 24
2010 -067- -2.77 Rob_Scahill_COL PITCH 0.420 aplus 23

Ian Clarkin

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -162- -1.55 Ian_Clarkin_CHA PITCH 0.398 aa 23
2018 XXXXX 0.27 Ian_Clarkin_CHA PITCH NA aplus 23
2017 +085+ 2.21 Ian_Clarkin_NYA PITCH 0.631 aplus 22
2017 +085+ 0.04 Ian_Clarkin_CHA PITCH NA aplus 22
2016 +187+ 1.68 Ian_Clarkin_NYA PITCH 0.577 aplus 21
2014 XXXXX 0.27 Ian_Clarkin_NYA PITCH NA aplus 19

Not much more to say.  Kyle Ryan could be a keeper out of this group.

DH Part 2 coming next which will have WAAs calculated for lineup positions and worst non-pitcher in a DH lineup.  Until then ….

Who are these new guys? Part 1

First two games of spring training for 2019 are in the history book.  Let’s go through a box score and take a look at the new guys on CHN using our newly updated minor league DB. Subsequent parts will highlight new guys that will rotate in throughout the month.

This post will be a lot of search tables into minor leagues.  Only AAA, AA, and A+ are catalogued.  First, here’s a screenshot taken from Reddit in r/ChiCubs.  What game this is doesn’t really matter.  Explanation as to how to read these tables below the fold.

chn02252018The order of new guy tables is determined by their order of appearance in the above box score starting with BATters and then PITCHers.

Winston Bernard

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.84 Wynton_Bernard_CHN BAT 0.397 aaa 27
2018 XXXXX -0.55 Wynton_Bernard_CHN BAT 0.411 aa 27
2017 XXXXX -0.88 Wynton_Bernard_SFN BAT 0.420 aaa 26
2016 XXXXX -0.78 Wynton_Bernard_DET BAT 0.408 aaa 25
2016 XXXXX 0.46 Wynton_Bernard_DET BAT 0.534 aa 25
2015 -177- -1.43 Wynton_Bernard_DET BAT 0.453 aa 24
2013 XXXXX 0.06 Wynton_Bernard_SDN BAT NA aplus 22

The above table format for a minor league career search is a work in progress.  This is a Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) data model so only rank and WAA, the value  factor used to rank that represents W-L and is the foundation of this data model, are important  A WAA=0 is completely average.  Negative means below average, positive above average.  As of now we don’t pull in position data for minor leagues other than PITCH or BAT.

Like MLB, the dataset used to calculate WAA is all players for all 30 franchises.   For example, AAA has two leagues, International (int) and Pacific Coast League (pcl) which are combined into one dataset.   Pitchers and batters are ranked together, the sum of WAA for each adds to 0 exactly — like how real team W-L records add to exactly zero.  For every win counted a team must lose.  Not too complicated!

In the above table a rank of XXXXX means neither top or bottom 200 in that league for that year.  Since players move from league to league in minors playing time is cut short so WAA cannot accumulate as much as players playing a full season in that league.  Thus, rank is not as important as it is in MLB.  The Win% column puts the WAA calculated weighting factor in perspective.  See how it’s calculated here.  Win% are not shown for MLB records as it would be deceptive.

The last column is age which is an important factor in player development.   The above shows Bernard hasn’t been a very good hitter in minors and at age 27 probably won’t make it.  Decent MLB players usually dominate when they were in minor leagues but sometimes there are exceptions.  The above table shows Bernard is a below average minor league player except for 2016 in AA for the DET franchise (Detroit Tigers).

Trent Giambrone

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.02 Trent_Giambrone_CHN BAT 0.499 aa 24
2017 XXXXX -0.82 Trent_Giambrone_CHN BAT 0.468 aplus 23

Trent has been on our radar for two years now and bats almost completely average.

Note: This model only measures past results.   There could be fundamentals that scouts and player development coaches see in these players that could make them decent MLB players one day.

Jim Adduci

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.34 Jim_Adduci_DET 1B XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 1.26 Jim_Adduci_DET BAT 0.582 aaa 33
2017 XXXXX 0.19 Jim_Adduci_DET RF XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.10 Jim_Adduci_DET BAT 0.508 aaa 32
2014 XXXXX -0.34 Jim_Adduci_TEX LF XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX -0.10 Jim_Adduci_TEX BAT NA aaa 29
2014 XXXXX 0.40 Jim_Adduci_TEX BAT NA aa 29
2013 XXXXX -0.55 Jim_Adduci_TEX X XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 1.45 Jim_Adduci_TEX BAT 0.551 aaa 28
2012 XXXXX 0.19 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.521 aaa 27
2012 XXXXX 0.21 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.514 aa 27
2011 XXXXX 0.04 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.503 aa 26
2010 XXXXX -0.63 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.470 aaa 25
2009 +101+ -0.88 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.468 aa 24
2008 XXXXX -0.50 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.482 aplus 23

At age 34 now Jim can be considered a professional minor league-er and based upon his 2018 numbers he could be a good hitting first baseman helping the Iowa Cubs win more than they lose this season.

Charcer Burks

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -116- -1.83 Charcer_Burks_CHN BAT 0.432 aa 23
2017 -186- -1.41 Charcer_Burks_CHN BAT 0.449 aa 22
2016 XXXXX -0.44 Charcer_Burks_CHN BAT 0.484 aplus 21

Charcer is still very young.

Mark Zagunis

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.04 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX -0.73 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT 0.467 aaa 25
2017 XXXXX -0.34 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 1.49 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT 0.570 aaa 24
2016 XXXXX 0.92 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT 0.584 aaa 23
2016 XXXXX 0.84 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT 0.576 aa 23
2015 +105+ 2.12 Mark_Zagunis_CHN BAT 0.580 aplus 22

Ryan Court

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 1.13 Ryan_Court_CHN BAT 0.555 aaa 30
2017 XXXXX -1.57 Ryan_Court_BOS BAT 0.432 aaa 29
2016 XXXXX -0.06 Ryan_Court_BOS BAT 0.483 aaa 28
2016 XXXXX 0.63 Ryan_Court_BOS BAT 0.535 aa 28
2014 XXXXX -0.19 Ryan_Court_ARI BAT 0.477 aa 26
2014 XXXXX 0.04 Ryan_Court_ARI BAT 0.504 aplus 26
2013 XXXXX -1.01 Ryan_Court_ARI BAT 0.410 aa 25
2013 +164+ 1.95 Ryan_Court_ARI BAT 0.719 aplus 25

Ryan is getting kind of old to be in the minors but he had a good season last year.

Ian Rice

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.44 Ian_Rice_CHN BAT 0.475 aa 24
2017 XXXXX 0.36 Ian_Rice_CHN BAT 0.518 aa 23
2016 XXXXX 0.84 Ian_Rice_CHN BAT 0.564 aplus 22

Johnny Field

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.44 Johnny_Field_TOT LF-RF-CF XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX -0.69 Johnny_Field_TBA RF-LF-CF XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 0.27 Johnny_Field_MIN LF XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 0.65 Johnny_Field_CLE BAT NA aaa 26
2018 XXXXX -0.32 Johnny_Field_MIN BAT NA aaa 26
2018 XXXXX 0.02 Johnny_Field_TBA BAT NA aaa 26
2017 XXXXX 0.59 Johnny_Field_TBA BAT 0.524 aaa 25
2016 XXXXX -0.32 Johnny_Field_TBA BAT 0.478 aaa 24
2016 XXXXX 1.07 Johnny_Field_TBA BAT 0.600 aa 24
2015 +045+ 3.19 Johnny_Field_TBA BAT 0.625 aa 23
2014 XXXXX 0.94 Johnny_Field_TBA BAT 0.607 aplus 22

Jacob Hannemann

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 -045- -3.00 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.343 aaa 27
2017 XXXXX -0.08 Jacob_Hannemann_SEA BAT XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX -1.34 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.420 aaa 26
2017 XXXXX -0.92 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.375 aa 26
2016 XXXXX -0.44 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.474 aa 25
2015 XXXXX -0.29 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.489 aa 24
2015 XXXXX 0.13 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.537 aplus 24
2014 XXXXX -0.99 Jacob_Hannemann_CHN BAT 0.380 aplus 23

Phillip Evans

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.34 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT XXX mlb
2018 +158+ 1.76 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT 0.638 aaa 25
2017 XXXXX -0.42 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX -0.50 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT 0.481 aaa 24
2016 XXXXX 0.71 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT 0.535 aa 23
2016 XXXXX -0.27 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT NA aplus 23
2015 XXXXX -0.88 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT 0.440 aplus 22
2014 -036- -3.15 Phillip_Evans_NYN BAT 0.362 aplus 21

Phillip played well last year for the Mets affiliate in AAA.  It looks like he came up twice to MLB in September call up season and hit below average.

Duncan Robinson

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +115+ 2.10 Duncan_Robinson_CHN PITCH 0.572 aa 24
2017 +165+ 1.66 Duncan_Robinson_CHN PITCH 0.688 aplus 23

Now we get to PITCHers.  Those are some pretty decent numbers.  A 0.688 Win% shows he dominated A+ in 2017.  He might have spent part of that year in A.  This model does not track A league.

Ryan Kellogg

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX 0.71 Ryan_Kellogg_CHN PITCH 0.541 aplus 24
2017 -032- -3.13 Ryan_Kellogg_CHN PITCH 0.350 aplus 23
2015 XXXXX -0.15 Micah_Kellogg_DET PITCH NA aplus 25
2014 XXXXX 0.34 Micah_Kellogg_DET PITCH NA aplus 24

Slightly above average in 2018 in A+ league.

James Norwood

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.00 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 1.24 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.842 aaa 24
2018 XXXXX 1.16 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.660 aa 24
2017 XXXXX -0.59 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.358 aa 23
2017 XXXXX 1.39 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.660 aplus 23
2016 XXXXX 0.44 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH NA aplus 22

He pitched 11 innings for the MLB Cubs last season and had very good numbers in AA and AAA leagues.

Dakota Mekkes

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +163+ 1.74 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.787 aaa 23
2018 +168+ 1.66 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.835 aa 23
2017 +078+ 2.29 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.776 aplus 22

Those are dominating numbers in all three leagues.  Dominating minor leagues does not guarantee dominating MLB but it does improve the odds.  Since he played AAA last year Cubs could bring him up mid season to help win a World Series.  You can never have enough pitchers.

Allen Webster

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 XXXXX -0.13 Allen_Webster_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 0.44 Allen_Webster_CHN PITCH NA aa 28
2017 -053- -3.11 Allen_Webster_TEX PITCH 0.260 aaa 27
2015 XXXXX -1.39 Allen_Webster_ARI PITCH XXX mlb
2015 -001- -7.39 Allen_Webster_ARI PITCH 0.068 aaa 25
2014 -112- -1.83 Allen_Webster_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +044+ 3.49 Allen_Webster_BOS PITCH 0.629 aaa 24
2013 -040- -3.36 Allen_Webster_BOS PITCH XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 1.43 Allen_Webster_BOS PITCH 0.561 aaa 23
2012 XXXXX -0.86 Allen_Webster_BOS PITCH NA aa 22
2012 XXXXX 1.01 Allen_Webster_LAN PITCH 0.537 aa 22
2011 -130- -1.87 Allen_Webster_LAN PITCH 0.408 aa 21
2011 +142+ 2.23 Allen_Webster_LAN PITCH 0.686 aplus 21

Allen Webster’s future is probably professional minor league-er.

This model only shows an accurate representation of the past.  The past can show proven capability but  cannot be used to predict the future because no on can predict the future — even if you’re time traveling here from the future.

Subsequent parts to this series will show any new guys I happen upon in box scores throughout spring training not mentioned above.   Those parts won’t be as long as this initial post.  Not much more to say.  There will be no spring training team statuses or any player rankings until perhaps the end of spring training.  Then in the regular season we have to wait until 1/6 of the season has been played to show player rankings.

Still working on 2014 – 2018 season simulations where we go mano a mano between this data model, fivethirtyeight’s ELO model, and Vegas betting lines.  Who is most accurate?  Since we’re from the future we know the outcomes for all these estimated probabilities.  More on that when I get around to it.  Until then ….

Minor Leagues: Part 4 AA (Correction)

Cubs AAA file got mixed up with their AA file and I didn’t pay enough attention to this when writing Part 1 when I should have.  I discovered it recently when looking up David Bote who somehow had AA stats but didn’t play in AA this season.  Let’s do a revised report on the Tennessee Smokies.

2018 Tennessee Smokies Corrected

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-50.8 13.6 562 583 67 71 16.2 0.1 Tennessee_Smokies_CHN

BAT very under water but pitch slightly above average for the year.  Unearned Runs above average very high at +16.2.  Overall, the team played around average for the season

Top Smokies

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+070+ 2.48 Zach_Hedges_CHN PITCH 0.678
+115+ 2.10 Duncan_Robinson_CHN PITCH 0.572
+168+ 1.66 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.835
+198+ 1.49 Trevor_Clifton_CHN PITCH 0.618
XXXXX 1.45 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.599
XXXXX 1.16 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.660
XXXXX 0.88 Trey_Martin_CHN BAT 0.563
XXXXX 0.82 Michael_Rucker_CHN PITCH 0.528
XXXXX 0.69 Craig_Brooks_CHN PITCH 0.603
XXXXX 0.63 Zack_Short_CHN BAT 0.523
XXXXX 0.61 Brad_Markey_CHN PITCH 0.750

Perhaps we’ll see some of the above playing for the MLB Cubs next season at some point.

That is all.  I should have caught this but didn’t and it doesn’t matter now anyway.  The White Sox and top AA players list is correct, only the Cubs file was in error.  World Series reports coming tomorrow and that data flow is pretty solid now after running through many issues of its own.  Until then ….

Minor Leagues Part 3: AAA

This will be the last minor league covered.  AAA consists of two leagues; Pacific Coast League (pcl) and International (int).  More about these leagues can be read here.  Like MLB, this model combines all 30 franchise affiliates from both leagues into one bowl of data soup.  Let’s start with the Cubs affiliate.

Iowa Cubs Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
7.9 -59.4 556 610 55 59 -0.3 -2.0 Iowa_Cubs_CHN  8/10/2017
-99.8 -10.1 478 592 46 79 0.4 -4.5 Iowa_Cubs_CHN  8/22/2018

The above shows team status for last year’s last snapshot and the one taken today.  A year ago the Cubs were almost 0.500, just 4 games under.  Today they’re -33.  BAT tanked but PITCH actually improved even though it’s still underwater as well.

Top Iowa Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+081+ 2.50 Kyle_Ryan_CHN PITCH 0.696
+142+ 1.89 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH 0.875
+163+ 1.74 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.787
+169+ 1.70 Dillon_Maples_CHN PITCH 0.705
XXXXX 1.45 Anthony_Bass_CHN PITCH 0.713
XXXXX 1.24 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH 0.842
XXXXX 1.13 Ryan_Court_CHN BAT 0.555
XXXXX 1.13 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.582
XXXXX 0.92 Michael_Roth_CHN PITCH 0.639
XXXXX 0.82 Mike_Freeman_CHN BAT 0.557
XXXXX 0.82 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.580

Kyle Ryan has been in MLB since 2014 and came to the Cubs from Detroit.  He pitched well for the Iowa Cubs this season with a rather high Win% rate.   Names in blue have played for the MLB Cubs and we saw Jason Vosler last season  and with the Smokies this season.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+043+ 2.90 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.625 aa 2017
XXXXX 0.92 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.603 aa 2018
XXXXX 0.82 Jason_Vosler_CHN BAT 0.580 aaa 2018

Not bad.  Maybe we’ll see him in September call ups.

Charlette Knights  Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-61.6 -44.6 489 611 46 70 -16.3 0.5 Charlotte_Knights_CHA  8/10/2017
-111.3 21.0 472 553 57 68 8.4 1.0 Charlotte_Knights_CHA  8/22/2018

Since last season BAT tanked while PITCH improved and their W-L record went from -14 to -11, almost the same.  UR way up.   The White Sox had quite the fire sale last season so it is not expected for that talent to percolate up to AAA.  That this team has improved somewhat  means their deals from two years ago may be paying dividends.  We’ll drill down into individual players below.

The above shows the Knights had a dismal UR, a team indicator for fielding as a team, last season which has dramatically improved this season.  The current MLB White Sox have the worst UR amongst all 30 MLB teams at -23.0.  The second worst in MLB is PHI with -12.0 .  It will be interesting to see if the above improvement shows up in the MLB White Sox a year from now when we do this again.  Let’s look at the top players that make up the Knights.

Top Charlette Knights

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 3.61 Donn_Roach_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX -0.17 Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+104+ 2.10 Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX -0.42 Tyler_Danish_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+147+ 1.85 Tyler_Danish_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX -0.76 Spencer_Adams_CHA PITCH aa 2018
+156+ 1.78 Spencer_Adams_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
-015- -3.55 Dylan_Covey_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+157+ 1.76 Dylan_Covey_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX 0.19 Michael_Kopech_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
+172+ 1.70 Michael_Kopech_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
-037- -2.96 Jordan_Guerrero_CHA PITCH aa 2018
+183+ 1.62 Jordan_Guerrero_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX 0.55 Xavier_Cedeno_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
XXXXX 1.53 Xavier_Cedeno_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
+198+ 1.39 Ian_Hamilton_CHA PITCH aa 2018
XXXXX 1.18 Ian_Hamilton_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
+059+ 3.02 Carlos_Rodon_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
XXXXX 0.84 Carlos_Rodon_CHA PITCH aaa 2018
XXXXX 0.42 Aaron_Bummer_CHA PITCH mlb 2018
XXXXX 0.78 Aaron_Bummer_CHA PITCH aaa 2018

Since this is AAA, the top level minor league, players move around a lot.  The above table lists the top Knights according to their AAA value and also shows their value and rank records from other leagues they played for this season.

First thing to notice is all their top players are pitchers — which should be expected with such a high negative BAT in team status.  This means the White Sox’ hopes for next season will rely on some of the above to be able to pitch at MLB level.

The top two guys colored in green are pitching very well at the AAA level but they have been in and out of MLB over the years.  Click on Donn Roach and Jeanmar Gomez to see their career stats from baseball-reference.com.  Donn Roach even pitched in a game for the Cubs and Gomez has been around MLB since 2010 so technically he’s a veteran.

The blue colored names are mlb records.  Interesting that Jordan Guerrero tanked in AA and was promoted to AAA and has pitched well.  There is much more going on in minors than this data model can see.  This model is only a reflection upon past performance.  With September call ups around the corner we may see many of these names on CHA MLB roster soon.  Also, this guy was left out.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos  Win%
+037+ 1.95 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.807 aplus 2017
+037+ 1.74 Eloy_Jimenez_CHN BAT 0.692 aplus 2017
+051+ 2.58 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.717 aa 2018
XXXXX 0.53 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA BAT 0.557 aaa 2018

The above show our snapshot from last season as well.  This model does not compile A level however.   His win% rate shows he excelled in A+ and AA.  He might have started at A level in 2017.  He might be on the MLB team in September and most likely sometime next season depending upon how the White Sox are handling him.

Top AAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
+001+ 6.28 Tyler_O’Neill_SLN BAT 0.942
+002+ 5.92 Christian_Walker_ARI BAT 0.834
+003+ 5.90 Mike_Tauchman_COL BAT 0.770
+004+ 5.90 Kevin_Cron_ARI BAT 0.794
+005+ 5.86 Jabari_Blash_ANA BAT 0.858
+006+ 5.59 Kyle_Tucker_HOU BAT 0.762
+007+ 5.46 AJ_Reed_HOU BAT 0.713
+008+ 5.35 Cole_Irvin_PHI PITCH 0.661
+009+ 5.33 J.D._Davis_HOU BAT 0.813
+010+ 5.25 Zach_Borenstein_NYN BAT 0.693
+011+ 5.02 Adam_Plutko_CLE PITCH 0.767
+012+ 4.89 Socrates_Brito_ARI BAT 0.713
+013+ 4.60 Franmil_Reyes_SDN BAT 0.853
+014+ 4.58 Enyel_De_Los_Santos_PHI PITCH 0.678
+015+ 4.56 Ryan_Weber_TBA PITCH 0.698
+016+ 4.45 Josh_Fuentes_COL BAT 0.659
+017+ 4.45 Dakota_Hudson_SLN PITCH 0.679
+018+ 4.41 Daniel_Poncedeleon_SLN PITCH 0.716
+019+ 4.28 Brett_Nicholas_SDN BAT 0.699
+020+ 4.18 Peter_Alonso_NYN BAT 0.822
+021+ 4.16 Trevor_Oaks_KCA PITCH 0.658
+022+ 3.99 Kolby_Allard_ATL PITCH 0.664
+023+ 3.88 Jordan_Patterson_COL BAT 0.672
+024+ 3.88 Tyler_White_HOU BAT 0.738
+025+ 3.86 Robert_Stephenson_CIN PITCH 0.654

The above is a name dump based upon  WAA weighting which is the only appropriate way to rank.  Not familiar with any of the above names except Robert Stephenson who, IIRC, pitched against the Cubs this season.  Many of the above could be professional minor league players who can dominate AAA but can’t make it in MLB.

That is all for now and perhaps minor leagues for this season.  A playoff horse race compilation needs to be made before roster expansion and that’s in a few days.  Until then ….