Category Archives: Handicapping

July 4, 1984

Today is Happy July 4, 1984 and since there are no baseball games on the radio I thought it would be interesting to handicap the final game of a 3 game series against San Diego. Rick Sutcliffe is on the mound for the Cubs.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 X 0.428 X 2.10 -2.46 -0.56  
SDN 14 X 0.572 X 0.18 0.11 -0.37  

Cubs fielding a Tier 2.1 lineup which is around half their usual value.  Cubs starter value is over one standard deviation below league average.

Tier Combo simulation gives Padres a 57% advantage in this game.  We don’t have Vegas lines to calculate Expected Value (EV) of a 100 unit bet.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-019- -2.50 115.3 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 5 -2.46
XXXXX 0.13 109.0 Eric_Show SDN 5 0.11

And Cubs under water starter is Rick Sutcliffe.  Since we’re from the future we know right now Sutcliffe is the best pitcher in baseball.  On July 4, 1984, the above is all anyone knows about these two starters.  

By the end of 1984 Eric Show finishes ranked at #158.  Next year (1985) he pitches even better for the Padres ranked #45 of all players in MLB.

Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 010010000 2 12 9 2
SDN 000010000 1 10 7 1

Sutcliffe pitches 8 1/3 letting up no earned runs.  Cubs 2 errors led to a run which will hurt their UR in team status tomorrow.  This is a Clayton Kershaw like pitching performance even though he won’t be born for several years.

Cubs take 2 of 3 from Padres and it’s off to San Francisco tomorrow which we’ll cover with a matchup analysis.  Until then ….

World Series Game 7

Another World Series Game 7.  Let’s see what this matchup looks like.

WAS HOU 10_30_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.444 0.401 90 3.37 3.26 0.32
HOU 52 0.574 0.599 104 4.00 3.82 3.32

The R ( Relief ) column is always the same for each team throughout a playoff series because it’s based upon their published roster which shouldn’t change.  Lineups ( L ) are usually around the same.  S ( Starters ) is the only column that deviates game to game.

TC Sim has Houston favored more than Vegas today.  The Vegas line started out at 0.600 in favor of HOU and has been moving towards WAS.  ELO has HOU favored 52% which is close to where they had them favored yesterday.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.82

Greinke had a better regular season than Scherzer.  Both these pitchers have post season experience.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.34 89.3 3.73 14 6 Max_Scherzer_TOT PITCH  post season
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH  post season

Scherzer is around even steven and Greinke is very under water for all post seasons not including 2019.  Greinke pitched well in game 3 however.  Vegas bettors might know about the above.  At even steven, playoff Max Scherzer pitches well below regular season Max Scherzer.  HOU has home field advantage and this is a desperation game for both teams.

TC Sim relies solely on regular season performance.  Here are lineups from yesterday as an FYI.  They shouldn’t be much different than tonight.  This will be the last game of the 2019 baseball season.

WAS Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
Total 21.90 TIER=3.37

HOU Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00

World Series Game 6

World Series Game 6 tonight in Houston.  Houston up 3-2 so Washington is on the ropes.

WAS HOU 10_29_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.385 0.390 101 3.37 2.95 0.32
HOU 52 0.636 0.610 96 4.00 4.00 3.32

TC Sim and Vegas in agreement once again.  ELO has Houston favored at 53% so the WAS line would be another betting opportunity for them  Desperation for WAS is highest it can be.  Houston ahead in L, S, and R categories and have home field advantage.  Away teams  prevailed so far in each game this series.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Strasburg and Verlander face each other once again.  Each pitcher about tied in post season ranking for all seasons up to and including 2018.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH post season
+033+ 2.50 189.0 3.00 29 4 Justin_Verlander_TOT PITCH post season

We have current lineups today.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
Total 21.90 TIER=3.37

WAS fielded a close to Tier 4.00 in games 1 and 2.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00

And Houston fields yet another maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup.

That’s all for today and could be that’s all for the 2019 baseball season tonight.  After the season is over we’ll do a Cubs and White Sox post mortem showing how their 2019 players fared as well as all their prospects in minor leagues.  Until then ….

World Series Game 5

World Series Game 5 tonight in DC.  Looks like HOU evened up this series and regained home field advantage.  Let’s look at tonight’s game.

HOU WAS 10_27_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.600 0.615 102 4.00 4.00 3.32
WAS 24 0.417 0.385 92 2.74 3.26 0.32

Vegas and TC Sim almost in complete agreement.  ELO has Houston favored by only 52% which means the WAS line could be another betting opportunity for that system.  Lineup numbers taken from yesterday.  HOU is ahead in L , S , and R.  Washington needs to win tonight or they’re in trouble.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26

Both top tier pitchers in regular season.  Here are their post season numbers.

Post Season

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.10 29.0 3.72 5 2 Gerrit_Cole_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.34 89.3 3.73 14 6 Max_Scherzer_TOT PITCH

Both hovering around average for post season.  Average post season ERA is much lower than regular season ERA for obvious reasons.  Both ERAs above eerily similar however.

Might update when lineups become available but they shouldn’t be much different than yesterday.

HOU Lineup Today

no lineup for HOU

WAS Lineup Today

no lineup for WAS

World Series Game 4

World Series game 4 starts in a few hours.  Let’s have a look see into this game.

HOU WAS 10_26_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.512 0.575 X 4.00 -0.24 3.32
WAS 24 0.512 0.425 X 2.74 3.00 0.32

Vegas is a don’t know for this game.  TC Sim has Houston favored at 57% , ELO has WAS favored at 59%.   There is much disagreement about this game today.   Washington has a much better starter pitching tonight, HOU has a better lineup and relief.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Urquidy_HOU 0.48 0.553 41.0 -0.24
Patrick_Corbin_WAS 5.96 0.633 202.0 3.00

Houston is going with a new guy starting who is listed as a reliever.  He was supposed to start Game 6 of ALCS and was replaced by Brad Peacock last minute.  This will probably be a reliever smorgasbord for HOU tonight which is a side effect of carrying only three starters.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
XXXXX 0.40 Jake_Marisnick_HOU CF 318
XXXXX 0.00 Jose_Urquidy_HOU none 0
Total 27.88 TIER=4.00

Houston still has a maxed out Tier 4.00 even without DH.  Pitcher hitting records are zeroed out in lineup calculations which will be explained more in off season.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
XXXXX 0.00 Patrick_Corbin_WAS none 0
Total 18.37 TIER=2.74

Washington dropped a complete tier from their DH lineup in Houston.