Category Archives: Team Ranking

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 12

Now that we have all four playoff rosters here’s another edition of the playoff horse race series.  We’ll start with ELO, then this model, then WAR.elo10132019
I do not know how ELO is calculated.  Astros took a big hit however.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 71.2 31.5 26.7 13.0 14.4
WAS 24 51.0 24.9 20.9 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 45.3 31.6 3.5 10.1 11.4
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4

This data model still has HOU #1.  Valuation  for WAA and WAR tables are done using regular season results.  As always, the UR columns mean unearned runs above average, measured in runs.  All other columns are measured in wins.  It is interesting to note that all these teams have positive UR.  LAN and ATL had high negative UR and were bounced.  Not sure what this means right now but it’s something to look into in off season.  Currently UR is not incorporated in TC Sim.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 72.6 42.5 20.3 9.8 14.4
WAS 24 52.3 26.2 21.5 4.6 18.4
NYA 44 46.9 33.2 4.5 9.2 11.4
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

I’m pretty sure the above isn’t an error but not completely sure right now.   Total WAR is eerily close to Total WAA for each of these teams.  The two systems differ somewhat in the other categories.  Total is Hitters + Starters + Relief in each of these tables.  UR is shown for informational purposes only.

That is all for now.  ALDS Handicapping next.  Today will be a a rare two posts in a single day day.  Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 11

… and then there were 8.   Let’s look at the playoff horse race table for the final 8 horses in this race.

ELO

elo10042019

Looks like Dodgers eeked out Astros in ELO.  WAR has Dodgers near the bottom, this data model has them second to HOU.  Do not know how ELO is compiled so can’t comment further.  The next two tables are standard playoff horse race tables breaking down each team’s 25 player roster according to this data model (WAA) and WAR.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 63.0 28.1 26.2 8.7 14.4
LAN 50 53.8 21.1 24.5 8.3 -12.6
WAS 24 49.9 24.9 20.9 4.2 18.4
MIN 40 49.1 31.1 4.5 13.5 -14.6
NYA 44 42.3 28.6 1.6 12.1 11.4
ATL 32 38.2 14.0 13.7 10.5 -8.6
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4
TBA 30 19.3 -1.2 11.2 9.3 1.4

Houston has the best starting rotation while MIN has best hitters and relief.  Let’s see what WAR has to say.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 67.5 39.1 21.7 6.7 14.4
WAS 24 52.9 26.2 21.5 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 49.3 33.8 7.4 8.1 11.4
MIN 40 49.0 31.8 9.9 7.3 -14.6
TBA 30 45.7 27.1 10.6 8.0 1.4
ATL 32 44.2 22.7 14.0 7.5 -8.6
LAN 50 41.4 26.4 13.0 2.0 -12.6
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

Dodgers as a team gave up the fewest runs by far in MLB which means great pitching.  Below are the top two according to PITCH.

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 106 56 107.9 177.8 -12.6
HOU 107 55 139.9 127.8 14.4

The above shows the  LAN way above second place HOU.  WAA has LAN and HOU pitching around equal, top of the pack.  WAR has LAN Starter + Relief value at the bottom of these 8 teams.  That is simply not possible based on PITCH.  A team does not win by having more strikeouts or less walks than the other team.  Teams win by giving up fewer runs than the other team.

Handicapping 10/4/2019

The below will show game tables the four divisional games played today.

WAS LAN 10_04_9:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.417 0.420 97 2.63 2.95 -0.03
LAN 50 0.600 0.580 99 3.15 3.09 1.60

Vegas and TC Sim in agreement on this game except for …

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 6.11 0.654 178.3 3.09

Both pitchers about equal, each having a great season.  WAR has Strasburg ranked #15, Kershaw #95.  Here’s their post season records.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH
-008- -2.73 184.3 4.20 29 7 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH

Kershaw had problems in past post seasons and Strasburg hardly gave up any runs so far in his 33 innings of post season work.  Past results don’t affect future results.  All Cubs fans are thankful that playoff Clayton Kershaw came out to pitch in 2016 NLCS.  Handicapping is based upon the value of regular season Clayton Kershaw however.

TBA HOU 10_04_2:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.312 0.345 110 -0.54 1.68 2.04
HOU 52 0.722 0.655 90 4.00 4.00 1.79

Houston won this game.  Vegas had them at almost 3-1 favorites.  They had a maxed out lineup and starter today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 3.74 0.777 60.7 1.68
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander is the #1 player this season according to this data model.  He’s #5 with WAR.

SLN ATL 10_04_4:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.524 0.474 90 -0.31 4.00 2.29
ATL 32 0.500 0.526 105 2.14 -0.62 2.51

Vegas favors SLN slightly, TC Sim favors ATL slightly; both around 50/50 don’t know for this game.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL -0.15 0.494 117.0 -0.62

Flaherty is Cardinals’ best pitcher.

MIN NYA 10_04_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIN 40 0.370 0.494 133 3.95 1.57 3.72
NYA 44 0.655 0.506 77 3.64 0.90 3.13

Vegas has Yankees heavily favored.  TC Sim calls this game even steven.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Berrios_MIN 3.55 0.580 200.3 1.57
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.90

Neither starter has post season experience.

Looks like we’re at the end.  Handicapping post tomorrow and maybe with some drill down into playoff rosters for the ALDS teams.  Then we’ll do NLDS.   Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 10

This will be the last regular season playoff horse race post during regular season.

ELO

elo0916

The above is a screenshot taken today (9/16) of 538’s ELO model.  Don’t know how ELO is compiled or what a “Team Rating” number represents.  ELO has OAK and CLE now in top 5 with WAS bumped down to mid tier.  Since ELO does not break its numbers out like we do below there isn’t much to comment on.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
LAN 43 63.3 25.9 28.3 9.1 -15.6
HOU 45 58.6 29.1 26.8 2.8 12.4
NYA 45 41.5 34.0 -0.7 8.1 12.4
MIN 33 41.2 26.5 4.9 9.8 -14.6
WAS 16 37.0 16.8 18.8 1.4 17.4
ATL 35 35.5 17.5 13.5 4.5 -10.6
OAK 30 31.2 18.0 7.2 6.0 22.4
CHN 13 27.0 10.4 9.8 6.8 0.4
CLE 24 24.4 1.3 15.8 7.3 3.4
SLN 17 22.1 -2.2 13.5 10.8 10.4
BOS 9 17.1 20.2 -4.2 1.1 0.4
NYN 5 13.3 1.3 18.4 -6.5 10.4
TBA 27 12.7 -4.9 10.7 7.0 2.4
PHI 4 5.3 5.4 0.2 -0.3 0.4
MIL 11 0.7 1.8 5.8 -6.9 8.4

The above lists top 15 teams according to real team WAA (W-L) and then sorted on Total WAA according to this data model.  The numbers above are based on current rosters.  Since we’re in expanded roster month there may be some distortions up or down that may not represent  an actual 25 player playoff roster.  This model only counts stuff from current rosters and cannot discern who is there because of expansion.  The WAR table below is counted the same way.

WAA and WAR below has Cubs mid third; ELO has them low third.  All three models now have HOU and LAN top two and all relegate ATL to middle of the pack.  Cubs are on a sugar high with hitting because of their last three games with PIT where they put up double digit runs each game.  This propelled them ahead of SLN even though Cardinals are ahead in the only stat that matters in baseball.   Pitching has boosted SLN into first place in NL Central.

Unearned Runs above average (UR) has runs as units.  All other columns are WAA values  with wins as units.   LAN still has the worst UR but it’s up from past parts to this series.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 45 64.4 37.9 21.3 5.2 12.4
LAN 43 47.8 32.5 13.2 2.1 -15.6
OAK 30 47.4 30.6 11.2 5.6 22.4
NYA 45 46.9 33.9 6.4 6.6 12.4
WAS 16 46.2 21.6 20.1 4.5 17.4
MIN 33 42.9 29.9 7.3 5.7 -14.6
ATL 35 42.5 22.6 14.3 5.6 -10.6
CHN 13 42.1 22.8 12.7 6.6 0.4
BOS 9 41.6 24.2 7.9 9.5 0.4
TBA 27 38.2 22.3 10.1 5.8 2.4
CLE 24 37.1 17.6 13.3 6.2 3.4
SLN 17 36.9 21.4 10.3 5.2 10.4
NYN 5 35.2 18.1 17.4 -0.3 10.4
MIL 11 28.4 20.2 7.7 0.5 8.4
PHI 4 27.4 17.9 7.0 2.5 0.4

WAR has HOU way above 2nd place LAN in Total, so much so it could be its own tier.  These WAR and WAA tables are based on current rosters with values simply added together in each category.  HOU has best starting rotation in WAR, WAA has LAN with the best.  BOS has the best set of relievers according to WAR, WAA has SLN as the best.

Let’s spot check these numbers on where WAR and WAA differ most.  Both systems agree HOU has top notch pitching close enough to be tied for first.  WAR has LAN starting rotation mid tier.   In past parts to this series WAR has been shown to under value LAN pitching; both relief and starters.  Let’s look at starters.

LAN Starters WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+003+ 8.44 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 168.7
+025+ 5.56 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 165.3
+028+ 5.35 Walker_Buehler_LAN 171.3
+096+ 3.13 Julio_Urias_LAN 74.0
+144+ 2.27 Rich_Hill_LAN 53.7
+159+ 2.16 Ross_Stripling_LAN 84.7
XXXXX 1.36 Tony_Gonsolin_LAN 35.0
Total 28.27 0.669

Dodgers list 7 pitchers as starters which is a lot.   HOU follows closely in second for starter value and they only list 4 which is a typical playoff starting rotation.  Dodgers have 4 starters in top 100 which phenomenal.  Houston has three starters in the top ten which is even better according to this data model.

LAN Starters WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
+045+ 4.5 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN PITCH
+096+ 3.2 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH
+180+ 2.1 Walker_Buehler_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.0 Julio_Urias_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.9 Rich_Hill_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.8 Ross_Stripling_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.7 Tony_Gonsolin_LAN PITCH
Total 13.2

According to rank, WAR sees far less value in LAN starters than WAA.  How can that be when LAN still ranks far ahead of MLB in PITCH according to seasonal runs scored against.

Top 5 PITCH

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 97 54 95.1 159.8 -15.6
CLE 87 63 -19.9 118.9 3.4
SLN 83 66 -32.9 112.9 10.4
TBA 89 62 -9.9 111.8 2.4
HOU 98 53 138.1 105.7 12.4

These are the top 5 MLB teams according to PITCH which is a seasonal value.  There is no way Dodgers starters can be rated so low according to WAR having such high seasonal  PITCH.   Although current rosters can deviate from seasonal numbers, that’s not the case here.  All 5 of these teams should have top tier pitching ( relief + starters ) and they do according to WAA.  WAR has LAN ranked in bottom third of playoff teams with respect to total pitching which is absurd.

WAR under values relief as well.   Both BOS and SLN have major differences with WAR.

SLN Relief WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+058+ 3.82 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 67.3
+138+ 2.31 John_Brebbia_SLN 68.7
+192+ 1.85 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 31.0
XXXXX 1.62 John_Gant_SLN 64.3
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 41.7
XXXXX 0.69 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 45.7
XXXXX 0.48 Andrew_Miller_SLN 47.7
XXXXX 0.40 Tyler_Webb_SLN 49.0
XXXXX 0.29 Junior_Fernandez_SLN 8.7
XXXXX -0.10 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 16.7
XXXXX -0.90 Dominic_Leone_SLN 36.7
XXXXX -1.16 Mike_Mayers_SLN 16.7
Total 10.81 TIER=3.24

Tiers are calculated based upon the top 8 relievers.  Cardinals will have a very good relief staff going into the playoffs according to this data model. At Tier +3.24 SLN is over 1.5 standard deviation above league average for relief.

SLN Relief WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
+180+ 2.1 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 1.0 John_Brebbia_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.8 John_Gant_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.8 Carlos_Martinez_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.7 Ryan_Helsley_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.5 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.3 Tyler_Webb_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.2 Junior_Fernandez_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Andrew_Miller_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.4 Dominic_Leone_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.4 Mike_Mayers_SLN PITCH
Total 5.2

WAR only has one SLN reliever barely ranked in top 200.  One would think this is merely a so so relief staff just looking at the above numbers.

BOS Relief WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+060+ 3.78 Brandon_Workman_BOS 66.3
+189+ 1.85 Marcus_Walden_BOS 74.0
XXXXX 1.60 Josh_Taylor_BOS 45.3
XXXXX 0.55 Darwinzon_Hernandez_BOS 29.3
XXXXX 0.50 Matt_Barnes_BOS 59.0
XXXXX 0.19 Andrew_Cashner_BOS 142.3
XXXXX -0.02 Colten_Brewer_BOS 50.0
XXXXX -0.15 Travis_Lakins_BOS 18.7
XXXXX -0.55 Josh_A._Smith_BOS 29.0
XXXXX -0.63 Bobby_Poyner_BOS 8.0
XXXXX -0.65 Ryan_Weber_BOS 36.0
XXXXX -1.11 Ryan_Brasier_BOS 49.7
XXXXX -1.11 Hector_Velazquez_BOS 51.7
XXXXX -1.13 Mike_Shawaryn_BOS 17.3
-126- -2.06 Jhoulys_Chacin_BOS 94.3
Total 1.06 TIER=0.99

According to this model BOS relief, at Tier 0.99, are about 1/2 standard deviation above league average but well below the Cardinals’ +3.24 tier number.  Let’s see what WAR says.

BOS Relief WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
+119+ 2.8 Brandon_Workman_BOS PITCH
+126+ 2.7 Andrew_Cashner_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 1.4 Marcus_Walden_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 1.3 Josh_Taylor_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.9 Matt_Barnes_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.6 Colten_Brewer_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.3 Darwinzon_Hernandez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.2 Ryan_Weber_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Hector_Velazquez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Josh_Smith_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Travis_Lakins_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Jhoulys_Chacin_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Bobby_Poyner_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Mike_Shawaryn_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.3 Ryan_Brasier_BOS PITCH
Total 9.6

SLN relief had a total WAR=5.2 which is far less that the above 9.6.  WAR thinks BOS Relief >> SLN Relief.  This model has an opposite view where SLN >> BOS.  Which model is correct?

The next playoff horse race will be posted when the 8 teams in NLDS and ALDS release their 25 player rosters.  The two wild card games will be handicapped individually and there will be some historical playoff handicapping leading up to the actual playoffs.  Final Cubs status for regular season coming in a few days.  Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 9

We’re heading into the home stretch to the 2019 MLB season.  Here are Playoff Horse Race results from ELO, WAA and WAR value systems as of 8/31/2019, the end of month 5.

ELO

538_08312019

Don’t know how ELO is tabulated but there is a common theme among these three value systems; Houston, Dodgers, Yankees, and now … Washington.  WAS will most likely have to get in post season through the Wild Card crap shoot.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 41 54.1 23.1 24.7 6.2 9.6
LAN 40 45.9 20.6 19.0 6.3 -17.4
MIN 33 44.7 28.3 6.0 10.4 -14.4
WAS 18 41.9 20.1 18.6 3.3 18.6
ATL 31 34.0 13.4 11.3 9.3 -14.4
NYA 41 32.9 23.6 -1.8 11.1 13.6
CLE 22 24.6 1.3 13.5 9.7 0.6
BOS 11 24.2 23.0 -4.7 5.9 -0.4
CHN 11 22.6 4.4 10.6 7.6 5.6
OAK 20 21.7 7.2 8.6 5.9 22.6
SLN 17 18.2 -2.5 8.8 11.9 10.6
ARI 4 14.8 11.8 2.8 0.3 14.6
MIL 3 11.2 2.8 5.0 3.5 5.6
TBA 23 10.0 -4.1 8.7 5.4 0.6
PHI 6 8.3 5.0 -0.4 3.7 3.6

This model has Atlanta ranked much higher.  ELO has Cardinals ranked higher then Cubs although this was reversed in Part 8 of this series.  SLN has taken over NL Central and they appear to be streaking.   AL has a tight race for WC between CLE, OAK, and TBA.  Boston could get hot too.  BOS has the worst starting pitching of the top 15 MLB teams which may be a factor as to why their real WAA is so low.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 41 57.4 33.1 19.7 4.6 9.6
WAS 18 45.1 22.4 19.7 3.0 18.6
MIN 33 42.5 29.2 8.3 5.0 -14.4
NYA 41 42.2 28.6 5.6 8.0 13.6
OAK 20 40.2 22.9 12.0 5.3 22.6
ATL 31 39.2 20.0 12.2 7.0 -14.4
BOS 11 38.7 25.3 4.8 8.6 -0.4
CHN 11 36.7 18.7 12.2 5.8 5.6
LAN 40 36.0 24.1 10.4 1.5 -17.4
CLE 22 33.2 17.4 10.4 5.4 0.6
SLN 17 31.9 19.5 6.8 5.6 10.6
ARI 4 30.6 21.4 7.1 2.1 14.6
TBA 23 30.0 17.8 7.8 4.4 0.6
MIL 3 29.3 17.6 7.1 4.6 5.6
PHI 6 25.9 14.8 6.5 4.6 3.6

WAR has Dodgers in lower mid tier of this set which differs from WAA and ELO which both have them #2.  We covered how WAR has under valued LAN pitching in the last part to this series.  Other than some minor differences WAA and WAR pretty much agree on the rest.  Some time in the future we’ll cover why WAR has a problem with pitcher valuation.

This post used 8/31/2019 rosters with 9/2/2019 data.  MLB allows for expanded rosters in September which can distort calculations for WAA and WAR tables.  ELO is a black box so don’t know how that gets affected.  There might be one more of these mid September with caveats and then the real ones come out before NLDS and ALDS featuring the final eight teams.

That is all for now.  Until then ….

Cubs Status End of Month 5

Since we’re now at the end of month 5 of a 6 month season let’s do a Cubs status.

CHN Team Status

Team W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 64 58 8.8 52.9 2.5 20190817
CHN 73 61 11.5 61.8 4.6 20190831

In the last 2 weeks since we last did this Cubs went 9-3 gaining 6 games.  BAT, PITCH and UR all up.

NL Central 20190831

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 73 59 -47.6 95.9 10.6
CHN 73 61 11.5 61.8 4.6
MIL 68 66 -18.1 -28.1 4.6
CIN 63 70 -48.6 53.8 16.6
PIT 58 77 -12.6 -75.1 -18.4

Cubs 1 game behind the Cardinals.  Cardinals pitching continues to improve according to PITCH.

CHN 5 Year Split

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150831 18 -15.2 40.2 -2.9
20160831 38 73.4 136.9 7.8
20170831 13 52.0 47.6 -8.5
20180831 24 41.9 57.5 9.6
20190831 12 11.5 61.8 4.6

This table shows status for this season and the last four.  Team 2019 has fallen behind  rival Team 2017.  Team 2017 finishes the next month at +22.  Cubs will be in good shape if they can keep pace with that.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups -0.26
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.09
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.99
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.01
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.22
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.99
Relief 1.61

These are Tier assignments for Lineups, Starters, and Relief.  Hendricks at Tier 2.01 is one complete standard deviation above the mean for starters according to current rosters of 30 MLB teams.  Cubs lineup hovering around league average which should be expected based upon their BAT in team status.  Willson Contreras appears to be on IL so his numbers don’t coung.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+060+ 3.74 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 148.0
+123+ 2.31 Cole_Hamels_CHN 120.7
+121+ 2.31 Jose_Quintana_CHN 152.3
XXXXX 1.05 Yu_Darvish_CHN 152.3
XXXXX 0.61 Jon_Lester_CHN 144.3
Total 10.02 0.563

This is an above average starting rotation.  No pitcher is under water.  Lester has had a few bad outings which has happened to him in past seasons.  He  currently ranks #7 among all MLB players during playoff season which will matter if the Cubs make it this season.  Jose Quintana had a very good August.

Jose Quintana CHN

YEAR Rank WAA
0801 XXXXX 0.15
0805 XXXXX 0.34
0809 XXXXX 0.82
0813 XXXXX 0.92
0817 XXXXX 1.41
0821 +129+ 2.23
0825 +186+ 1.72
0829 +184+ 1.72
0831 +121+ 2.31

That’s over a +2 rise in one month which is Cy Young award numbers if a pitcher can keep this pace for 6 months straight.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+105+ 2.54 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 51.7
+187+ 1.74 Steve_Cishek_CHN 56.0
+194+ 1.66 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 49.3
XXXXX 0.86 David_Phelps_CHN 26.0
XXXXX 0.69 Rowan_Wick_CHN 22.3
XXXXX 0.46 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 63.7
XXXXX 0.04 Craig_Kimbrel_CHN 18.3
XXXXX -0.94 Pedro_Strop_CHN 32.7
Total 7.05 Tier=1.61

Relief had some pretty bad outings this season but overall this staff is above water.  Kimbrel climbed out of a hole he pitched in earlier this season.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+064+ 3.61 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+083+ 3.00 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+153+ 2.06 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 1.30 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.69 Ian_Happ_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.27 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B
XXXXX 0.10 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX -0.48 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
XXXXX -0.86 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -1.11 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -1.24 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
XXXXX -1.30 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
Total 6.04 0.524

Cubs hitters over all slightly above season average and usually field around average lineup according to current rosters.  Baez, Rizzo, Bryant compensate for Kemp, Lucroy, and Heyward.  Since we’re on Castellanos watch ever since he cam over with a < -2.00 WAA but decent game stats, let’s look at his progress.

Nicholas Castellanos CHN

YEAR Rank WAA
0805 -133- -2.27
0809 XXXXX -1.39
0813 XXXXX -1.53
0817 XXXXX -1.68
0821 XXXXX -1.55
0825 XXXXX -0.99
0829 XXXXX -1.18
0831 XXXXX -0.48

Castellanos came to the Cubs bringing -2.27 WAA with him;  all losses attributed to DET.  In one month he gained around +1.8 which is an MVP caliber number.  But like golf you can’t mulligan the front 9 because you finished great the last 6.  His contribution to the Cubs has made an impact.

Since this team is so close to Cubs 2017 let’s take a look at the playoff horse race on this day in 2017.  This model now has estimated rosters for day in the historical dataset.

Playoff Horse Race 8-31-2017

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
WAS 29 37.7 15.5 20.5 1.7 4.5
ARI 18 35.7 13.4 16.1 6.2 -14.5
NYA 9 32.8 14.2 5.6 13.1 -8.5
CLE 20 31.1 8.7 11.6 10.7 16.5
LAN 50 27.6 11.4 7.3 8.9 20.5
CHN 13 27.2 12.1 6.4 8.6 -8.5
HOU 27 26.0 16.6 9.0 0.4 12.5
BOS 18 22.9 2.6 8.3 12.0 -5.5
COL 11 22.8 17.8 1.5 3.4 19.5
SLN 1 21.8 7.9 9.7 4.2 -5.5
MIL 6 20.9 4.2 7.4 9.4 -3.5
TBA -1 8.4 -1.1 1.7 7.7 -0.5
BAL 2 7.0 12.9 -17.6 11.7 10.5
MIN 7 1.5 2.1 -1.8 1.2 -5.5
ANA 4 -0.6 -3.6 -1.5 4.5 17.5

This table type lists the top 15 MLB sorted by wins minus losses, real WAA, then sorts those teams according to Total WAA from this data model.  These tables take a roster snapshot so injured don’t get counted towards their team’s Total.  The actual true playoff horse race starts with this table using NLDS and ALDS official rosters.  We’ll do  historical post season rankings throughout next month.  HOU defeats LAN in 2017 World Series.

Cubs were upper middle of the pack in value and they knock off top ranked WAS in NLDS after streaking in September.  Tomorrow’s end of month 5 playoff horse race will show Cubs in lower middle of pack.  Until then ….