Category Archives: Team Ranking

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 7

Here’s a dump of the playoff horse race featuring the last 4 teams in the race.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 52.0 28.1 23.9 14.9 9.0
HOU 44 49.1 17.3 31.8 19.7 12.2
BOS 54 47.7 31.6 16.0 9.8 6.3
MIL 29 33.5 15.0 18.5 5.4 13.1

The above is sorted by Total WAA as calculated by this data model.  Hitters and Pitchers add to make Total, Starters and Relief add to make Pitchers.  Not much different from Part 6.  Milwaukee had a collapse of their top notch relief staff yesterday and still won because Dodgers had a collapse of their top notch starter.  Let’s look at handicap reports for the two games today.

DATE 10_13_4:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 > -125 $180
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.512 ] < 0.465 > +115 $215
STARTHOME 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.521 LAN 4.46 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.479 MIL 4.27 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 94 103
Home Field 83 116

Los Angeles favored slightly by Tier Combo simulations and a little more than slightly by the market.  Ryu is technically Tier 1, Miley Tier 2 and Dodgers have a Tier 1 lineup and Milwaukee brings a Tier 1 relief staff.   Since the market pretty much agrees with simulations there is no point in betting this game.

DATE 10_13_8:05_PM HOU BOS

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.476 ] < 0.488 > +105 $205
STARTAWAY 8.02(0.669) Justin_Verlander_HOU TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.545 ] < 0.535 > -115 $186
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.495 HOU 4.34 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.505 BOS 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE HOU BOS
Tier Combo 101 94
Home Field 94 100

Two top top of MLB pitchers starting tonight.  HOU has better relief, BOS has better lineup and TC simulations call this an even steven game.  BOS is favored by almost exactly at historical home field advantage which would make sense.  Both lines a discard.

That is all for today.  Handicap dumps will happen throughout the playoffs.  In the off season when the code gets finished we can reminisce handicapping playoffs from past seasons.  Since we’re from the future we know the outcomes.

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 6

There have been some problems with source data and this is starting to become ridiculous.  I don’t understand why sites can’t wait until the off season to change around their code.   Unfortunately I’m in the beggars can’t be choosers camp and don’t have standing to complain.  I think the below table is correct and contains the most current data.

The below is the corrected table from Part 5 of all teams in Divisional Series.

 Divisional Series Playoff Horse Race (corrected)

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 51.0 28.1 22.9 14.9 8.0
HOU 44 49.0 17.6 31.4 19.7 11.7
BOS 54 46.4 31.6 14.7 9.8 5.0
NYA 38 46.3 29.1 17.2 6.2 11.1
CLE 20 44.8 21.0 23.8 14.7 9.1
MIL 29 33.2 15.6 17.6 5.4 12.2
COL 19 31.6 21.2 10.4 3.1 7.3
ATL 18 31.0 14.6 16.4 12.1 4.3

Los Angeles is back on top and Atlanta drops to the bottom.  Milwaukee Starters value is up a bit.    Although Starters contribute to the Total bottom line, only one of them starts a game.  The cumulative Relief value is an important indicator which is used in simulation.

Milwaukee knocked out Colorado and since we’re from the future here’s its Ouija Board report:

DATE 10_07_4:30_PM MIL COL

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.429 ] < 0.400 > +150 $250
STARTAWAY 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME COL [ 0.580 ] < 0.615 > -160 $162
STARTHOME 1.70(0.539) German_Marquez_COL TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 MIL
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> COL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.504 MIL 4.59 runs
COL Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.496 COL 4.53 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL 126 146
COL 80 68

According to TC simulation this was a betting opportunity for MIL but we don’t know how home field advantage affects these lines yet.  Atlanta beat Los Angeles.  Here is their Ouija Board report.

DATE 10_07_8:05_PM LAN ATL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.615 ] < 0.630 > -170 $158
STARTAWAY 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.400 ] < 0.392 > +155 $255
STARTHOME 0.88(0.524) Sean_Newcomb_ATL TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 LAN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> ATL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.545 LAN 4.79 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.455 ATL 4.32 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
LAN 86 80
ATL 116 125

LAN was favored by a lot as an away team making this the first favorable EV for a home team in the playoffs so far.  Still a lot of verification work needs to be done.

That is all.  All the tiering and data required for simulation was broken.  Hopefully it’s working.  If not I may just pack up and work on off season projects that don’t require a complete set of current data.  Until then ….

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 5

This playoff horse race edition features playoff rosters for the 8 teams left in NLDS and ALDS.

Update 10/6/2018:  Due to a bug in a script the below table is not entirely correct.  MIL has better starting pitching which led to finding what led to this bug.  Ironically it was Addison Russell.

russell

See that little cross they added which references that he was suspended?  That barfed a script and it failed over by not failing so I didn’t know about it until I looked into why MIL starters was so low.  Part 6 will have the corrected table.  Most of it will look the same.

</end of Update>

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
HOU 44 44.3 15.1 29.2 20.5 8.7
BOS 54 43.7 28.8 14.9 9.8 5.1
LAN 21 38.0 18.0 20.0 11.4 8.6
NYA 38 34.5 24.0 10.5 -0.8 11.3
CLE 20 34.1 21.2 12.9 15.9 -3.0
ATL 18 28.8 12.3 16.5 11.2 5.3
MIL 29 25.7 12.2 13.4 2.5 11.0
COL 19 20.8 17.3 3.4 -0.3 3.7

Boston and Yankees have the two best hitting squads.  Today they are each fielding +27 lineups.   Houston’s ALDS Total playoff roster tops MLB  with BOS in a virtual tie.  Dodgers, who led during September expanded rosters, drop to third.  Colorado and Milwaukee bring up the rear with one of those teams guaranteed to advance.

There was some problems with data sources post regular season that seem to have been resolved.  May post simulation results with Expected Value tomorrow for all games in a single table.  So far home teams seem over valued by the market which means there may be home field advantage considerations for playoff season that need to be studied.  More on this later.  Until then ….

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 4

This will be the last playoff horse race post until after the wild card games when all 8 teams left have published their playoff rosters.  That starts the final stretch to the World Series finish line.  The table below still uses September expanded rosters.  Part 3 was published September 16.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 18 51.1 23.6 27.5 17.2 10.3
HOU 41 50.2 17.7 32.5 20.8 11.7
BOS 54 49.4 28.5 20.9 11.8 9.1
CLE 19 44.9 19.2 25.8 19.6 6.1
NYA 35 39.0 21.8 17.2 6.1 11.1
OAK 32 38.9 18.9 20.0 6.1 13.9
CHN 27 36.5 16.2 20.4 7.5 12.8
ATL 20 35.1 16.8 18.3 9.9 8.4
SLN 18 32.8 14.5 18.2 10.9 7.3
MIL 22 31.9 13.3 18.6 4.9 13.7
WAS 0 25.1 11.2 13.9 8.0 5.9
COL 15 21.2 11.5 9.7 0.8 8.9
TBA 19 17.6 -2.5 20.1 11.7 8.4
PHI 1 16.9 2.6 14.3 6.2 8.1
ARI 2 16.7 0.3 16.3 6.1 10.2

The above table is sorted by Total team WAA based upon current rosters and value according to this data model.

Bold dark blue teamids are those leading their divisions, green those holding a wild card spot, tan those still in the hunt.  AL has been locked up for awhile and right now only COL has a slim chance at overtaking SLN or LAN.

This table is somewhat different than last week.  The Dodgers ranked high in this table from Part 1 and now they’re essentially tied for first with Boston and Houston.  Cleveland rounds out  the top 4 and then Yankees.  Atlanta dropped.  National League teams round out the bottom of those teams with playoff spots.

Luckily for NL teams they have to play each other before  the World Series.  The above table has Dodgers  favored for NL and many teams close for AL.  We’ll see.   With the app you would be able to drill down into each team to see more detail as to what happened since last week.

The bold blue in  data columns are leaders, regular blue second for that category.  Even though Cubs have the best record in NL, they’re valued 2nd according to this data model.  Other than home field advantage, win/loss records are seasonal and cannot represent current team talent.  Rosters are constantly in flux throughout a season for all teams.

Not much more to say about the above.  Cubs start a new series with Pirates today.  Until then ….

Playoff Horse Race Part 3

Now that we’re into the home stretch of the season, let’s look at the Playoff Horse Race once again according to this data model.  The table below is sorted by Total team WAA according to current team rosters.  Total is the sum of Hitters and Pitchers, Pitchers is the sum of Starters and Relief.

Due to expanded rosters distorting relief value, only the top 7 relievers are counted.  The model counts all Hitters and Starters as expanded rosters do not affect those categories as much.  New guys coming from the minors start out at WAA=0.  Teams tend to label high negative pitchers as relief greatly distorting that measure in September.  This won’t be a problem for final playoff rosters nor is it a problem all the other months of a season.

Playoff Horse Race

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
BOS 55 49.1 28.5 20.7 11.7 9.0
HOU 38 47.5 16.2 31.3 18.9 12.4
LAN 15 46.5 21.9 24.6 14.9 9.7
ATL 18 36.3 15.5 20.8 11.3 9.4
CLE 18 35.9 19.4 16.5 11.0 5.5
OAK 31 35.2 14.5 20.7 5.4 15.3
NYA 34 34.0 20.8 13.2 4.7 8.4
CHN 26 31.6 12.0 19.6 7.2 12.4
MIL 21 29.3 12.2 17.1 4.5 12.7
SLN 13 28.5 11.6 16.9 11.2 5.7
WAS 1 24.6 10.5 14.1 8.1 6.0
COL 14 21.7 13.3 8.4 -0.4 8.7
ARI 7 18.5 2.7 15.9 6.1 9.8
PHI 5 17.9 3.0 15.0 6.8 8.2
ANA -3 14.6 6.4 8.2 1.0 7.2

The Cubs (CHN) rose in this table from Part 2 of this series due to the new way of counting relief in September rosters.  For brevity the above table only shows the top 15 MLB teams and all playoff contenders are now included as Colorado (COL) climbed back onto this list.

Blue teamids are those leading their divisions.  Green are wild card leaders, and tan are those still in the hunt.  There are no AL teams (other than those with a playoff spot) in the hunt right now.   Playoff teams tend to be buyers at trade deadlines while those not in contention are sellers trading high value players for future prospects.   One would expect playoff teams to top a list like this and they do.

Bold blue in the other columns are the highest among playoff contenders, regular blue second highest in that category.  This should provide an idea of what to expect during various AL and NL playoff matchups.

The Yankees talent still looks low compared to their W-L (WAA) value of +34.  Ironically this is opposite to last year when they had a rather low (for playoff teams) real team WAA=20 yet near the top in team value.  They ended up losing to a better Houston team in game 7 of ALCS.  After manually looking at Yankees roster it looks like only Aaron Judge is missing which would only propel them to around middle of the pack, around where the Cubs are now.

Dodgers and Oakland ranked very high for not being a divisional leader.  Except for the wild card game which is a crap shoot, regular season roster talent is more important than regular season wins and losses.  This model spits out these tables automatically.  There is no way I can discern what caused LAN or OAK to rank so high unless I keep track of every team’s transactions.  One of the purposes of this model is not to have to do that.

There will be one more part to this series using expanded rosters and then a final part using playoff rosters — which usually all come out after the wild card games.  Right now AL looks pretty strong and Cubs in the middle of the pack — again.

Playoff Horse Race  ASG to present

I had been toying with the idea of presenting the above table showing just the second half of the season.    I’m not a fan of streaks because in golf, you can’t just count the back 9 and ignore how you performed on the front 9.  Also past results don’t affect future results, only show capability.  Would it be interesting however to see what teams did only counting the back 9?

What started as something I thought could be simple to jury rig turned complicated and 300 lines of perl code later we get the following.

The real halftime to an MLB season is around the end of June.  The ceremonial halftime is  All Star break.  I chose to use  All Star break date as the start date, and today’s date as  end date.   All Star break give players time off and they may reflect upon their season so far and have epiphanies — like what happen to the Cubs last season.   This can be done because the WAA value measure generated by this model has proven additive properties.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
OAK 18 16.8 7.2 9.5 2.8 6.7
BOS 17 19.9 10.3 9.6 7.8 1.8
TBA 13 14.6 0.1 14.4 6.1 8.3
SLN 11 22.0 11.4 10.6 3.3 7.3
MIL 9 11.2 4.1 7.1 3.0 4.0
HOU 9 12.2 3.2 9.0 5.3 3.7
CLE 9 13.2 5.6 7.7 -1.3 9.0
CHN 9 6.4 -2.2 8.5 3.1 5.5
COL 8 10.6 0.0 10.6 0.1 10.5
ATL 8 15.8 6.3 9.5 3.5 6.0
NYN 6 8.8 1.8 7.0 3.2 3.7
NYA 5 13.1 9.9 3.2 4.0 -0.8
LAN 5 24.0 12.9 11.1 6.2 4.9
WAS 1 9.7 5.6 4.1 2.2 1.9
PIT 0 9.8 -6.2 16.0 7.5 8.5

The above is sorted by the W-L column (WAA) because sorting on Total value using an interval produces deceptive results.  This interval only represents accrued team value not true team value going into the playoffs like shown in the first table.

Edit for clarification 9/17/2018: Accrued team value can occur from getting rid of negative value players, acquiring positive value players through trades or DL activation, and earning it through play.  The above table does not discern this.  The W-L (WAA) column represents  real accrued team value for this interval  that is 100% accurate.  </>

Oakland clearly leads the league in the second half.  Unfortunately for them Houston is in their division so OAK will be stuck playing a wild card crap shoot game.  Boston has been chugging along the second half like their first half.

According to Total roster value Dodgers and Cardinals improved the most during second half as well in the real win/loss columns.  Cubs roster value increased the least among the 15 teams in the above list followed closely by the Yankees.

Since the start date and end date of this delta are two snapshots, it’s possible players on either end could be DL distorting delta value somewhat.  I’m not sure what value the above table provides.  It  uses a reduced dataset which will increase error.

Streaks are funny and many TV announcers like to cherry pick streak intervals to further some narrative.  In the realm of TV and fandom that really doesn’t matter but it’s deceptive, purposely sometimes, if you want a true analysis of the current state of a team or player.

Streaks are used by players thinking they can beat craps, roulette, slot machines, etc. etc. which keep the hotels in places like Las Vegas filled and casino profits high.  They also get people to lose money in the stock market or crypto currency LOL.  Every time you hear JD spout some streak nonsense cover your ears because BS usually follows.

This is why the delta table above may be worthless.  A true measure of a player and a team is a complete season.  More data equal less error and the MLB commissioner does not pick playoff teams based on who won the most games post All Star break.  The above was an interesting illustration and the 300 lines of code to make that table may be useful for other purposes.

That is all for now.  Part 4 of this series in a week or so and then Part 5 will be using official playoff rosters.  The wild card games will be handicapped the old fashion way and then the real playoff season begins.  Until then ….