Category Archives: Team Ranking

2018 World Series Report Part 1

Today will be part one of a World Series Report series.  These will be similar to the preceding playoff report series which mean mostly database dumps with some commentary about the results if they’re interesting. Today we’ll start with a complete playoff horse race sorted by team total WAA, the value stat generated by this data model.

Playoff Horse Race Part 8

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 50.7 28.1 22.6 14.9 7.6
BOS 54 42.2 31.6 10.6 8.9 1.7

… and then there were two.  Totals not much different from Part 7 of the playoff horse race series.   LAN has a better set of starters and better relief.  Boston fields a much better starting lineup as we’ll see below even though both teams have similar hitting.   Dodger hitting is spread out so they’ll have better late game pinch hitting which could be a factor in close games between two high caliber teams.  Let’s hear what the people think about tonight.

Handicapping Report

DATE 10_23_8:05_PM LAN BOS

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.426 ] < 0.417 > +140 $240
STARTAWAY 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.592 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.492 LAN 4.38 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.508 BOS 4.45 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN BOS
Tier Combo 118 84
Home Field 110 90

Two top tier MLB starters pitching tonight who must each face top tier lineups.  LAN has a slight edge with relief.  Boston fields a much better lineup even though both considered Tier 1 which gives them a slight edge in simulation.  Simulations use deltas between tiers not hard boundaries.  More about that in the off season.

The market however favors Boston significantly higher which causes Dodgers Expected Value for TC simulation to be 118, almost betting opportunity.  Home field disadvantage for LAN drops this to 110.  Right now claw back into historical lines data has not been done.  The above shows Boston is over valued based upon current data.  Kershaw can be flaky in the playoffs which are anomalies that can’t be quantified so we’ll see.

Let’s look at a lineup snapshot for each team taken a couple days ago which shouldn’t be much different than the official ones posted later.  We’ll also show Tier data and relief rosters according to our source.  For some reason (probably because our source is not that reliable) Boston is missing a player but that shouldn’t affect the below summary much.

Update 10/24:  That missing Boston player has been found and it’s starter Nathan Eovaldi who has a WAA=0.86 for the year which is solid Tier 3.  That 0.86 is not included in the playoff horse race table above.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10172018
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
4.98 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B-3B-2B 481
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN CR-2B 238
-0.48 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PR 57
Total WAA=16.00 PA=3921 WinPct=0.578

This is considered Tier 1 but just barely.  The Tier 1/2 boundary is +15.36 which is based upon a distribution of lineups from all 30 teams.

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10162018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
2.12 Steve_Pearce_BOS 1B-DH-LF 251
-1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH 502
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
-2.10 Christian_Vazquez_BOS CR 269
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
Total WAA=26.33 PA=4595 WinPct=0.610

This far exceeds the Tier 1/2 boundary and since simulations use deltas to determine differences, Boston’s lineup against Clayton Kershaw and LAN relief is greater than Dodgers barely Tier 1 lineup against a higher rated pitcher in Chris Sale.  This is why TC simulation sees the game more even steven than the blowout predicted by the market.

LAN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 LAN 16.00
SP 1 Walker_Buehler_LAN 4.64
SP 3 Rich_Hill_LAN 1.26
SP 1 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 5.02
SP 1 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 4.03
RP 2 LAN 7.64

Dodgers are showing their four starters while Boston below only shows 3.  The missing Boston player might be their fourth starter because it’s hard to make it through a seven game series with only 3 starters.

BOS Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 BOS 22.60
SP 3 Rick_Porcello_BOS -0.73
SP 3 David_Price_BOS 2.21
SP 1 Chris_Sale_BOS 7.41
RP 3 BOS 1.68

Lineups in tier data took a different snapshot than the listed lineup shown above.  All lineups vary a little from day to day.  Boston relief also took a big hit making them close to the Tier 3/4 border which is at WAA=0 for all 30 teams.

Note: Relief distributions are taken for the other 28 teams from end of August rosters using end of year data for each player.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+096+ 2.83 Dylan_Floro_TOT PITCH
+192+ 1.76 Kenley_Jansen_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.57 Pedro_Baez_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.39 Alex_Wood_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.78 Kenta_Maeda_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.59 Scott_Alexander_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 Julio_Urias_LAN PITCH
-186- -1.62 Ryan_Madson_TOT PITCH
Total 7.68

The Tier 2/3 border for relief is +6.26 so LAN is has a relief staff almost a complete tier above Boston.  This will be true for the entire series.

BOS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+163+ 1.99 Craig_Kimbrel_BOS PITCH
+168+ 1.97 Ryan_Brasier_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Eduardo_Rodriguez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.67 Matt_Barnes_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Heath_Hembree_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.40 Joe_Kelly_BOS PITCH
-025- -3.38 Drew_Pomeranz_BOS PITCH
Total 1.67

I double checked this and Drew Pomeranz appears to be on the playoff roster.  Not sure why.  There maybe matchup considerations with Dodger hitting that we don’t know about.   There must be a good reason — including our source for rosters made a mistake.  We’ll see.

That is all for showing playoff roster information.  Except for lineups the above won’t change much.  The rest of the world series reports will only show the handicapping with commentary if necessary.

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 7

Here’s a dump of the playoff horse race featuring the last 4 teams in the race.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 52.0 28.1 23.9 14.9 9.0
HOU 44 49.1 17.3 31.8 19.7 12.2
BOS 54 47.7 31.6 16.0 9.8 6.3
MIL 29 33.5 15.0 18.5 5.4 13.1

The above is sorted by Total WAA as calculated by this data model.  Hitters and Pitchers add to make Total, Starters and Relief add to make Pitchers.  Not much different from Part 6.  Milwaukee had a collapse of their top notch relief staff yesterday and still won because Dodgers had a collapse of their top notch starter.  Let’s look at handicap reports for the two games today.

DATE 10_13_4:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 > -125 $180
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.512 ] < 0.465 > +115 $215
STARTHOME 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.521 LAN 4.46 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.479 MIL 4.27 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 94 103
Home Field 83 116

Los Angeles favored slightly by Tier Combo simulations and a little more than slightly by the market.  Ryu is technically Tier 1, Miley Tier 2 and Dodgers have a Tier 1 lineup and Milwaukee brings a Tier 1 relief staff.   Since the market pretty much agrees with simulations there is no point in betting this game.

DATE 10_13_8:05_PM HOU BOS

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.476 ] < 0.488 > +105 $205
STARTAWAY 8.02(0.669) Justin_Verlander_HOU TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.545 ] < 0.535 > -115 $186
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.495 HOU 4.34 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.505 BOS 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE HOU BOS
Tier Combo 101 94
Home Field 94 100

Two top top of MLB pitchers starting tonight.  HOU has better relief, BOS has better lineup and TC simulations call this an even steven game.  BOS is favored by almost exactly at historical home field advantage which would make sense.  Both lines a discard.

That is all for today.  Handicap dumps will happen throughout the playoffs.  In the off season when the code gets finished we can reminisce handicapping playoffs from past seasons.  Since we’re from the future we know the outcomes.

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 6

There have been some problems with source data and this is starting to become ridiculous.  I don’t understand why sites can’t wait until the off season to change around their code.   Unfortunately I’m in the beggars can’t be choosers camp and don’t have standing to complain.  I think the below table is correct and contains the most current data.

The below is the corrected table from Part 5 of all teams in Divisional Series.

 Divisional Series Playoff Horse Race (corrected)

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 51.0 28.1 22.9 14.9 8.0
HOU 44 49.0 17.6 31.4 19.7 11.7
BOS 54 46.4 31.6 14.7 9.8 5.0
NYA 38 46.3 29.1 17.2 6.2 11.1
CLE 20 44.8 21.0 23.8 14.7 9.1
MIL 29 33.2 15.6 17.6 5.4 12.2
COL 19 31.6 21.2 10.4 3.1 7.3
ATL 18 31.0 14.6 16.4 12.1 4.3

Los Angeles is back on top and Atlanta drops to the bottom.  Milwaukee Starters value is up a bit.    Although Starters contribute to the Total bottom line, only one of them starts a game.  The cumulative Relief value is an important indicator which is used in simulation.

Milwaukee knocked out Colorado and since we’re from the future here’s its Ouija Board report:

DATE 10_07_4:30_PM MIL COL

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.429 ] < 0.400 > +150 $250
STARTAWAY 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME COL [ 0.580 ] < 0.615 > -160 $162
STARTHOME 1.70(0.539) German_Marquez_COL TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 MIL
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> COL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.504 MIL 4.59 runs
COL Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.496 COL 4.53 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL 126 146
COL 80 68

According to TC simulation this was a betting opportunity for MIL but we don’t know how home field advantage affects these lines yet.  Atlanta beat Los Angeles.  Here is their Ouija Board report.

DATE 10_07_8:05_PM LAN ATL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.615 ] < 0.630 > -170 $158
STARTAWAY 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.400 ] < 0.392 > +155 $255
STARTHOME 0.88(0.524) Sean_Newcomb_ATL TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 LAN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> ATL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.545 LAN 4.79 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.455 ATL 4.32 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
LAN 86 80
ATL 116 125

LAN was favored by a lot as an away team making this the first favorable EV for a home team in the playoffs so far.  Still a lot of verification work needs to be done.

That is all.  All the tiering and data required for simulation was broken.  Hopefully it’s working.  If not I may just pack up and work on off season projects that don’t require a complete set of current data.  Until then ….

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 5

This playoff horse race edition features playoff rosters for the 8 teams left in NLDS and ALDS.

Update 10/6/2018:  Due to a bug in a script the below table is not entirely correct.  MIL has better starting pitching which led to finding what led to this bug.  Ironically it was Addison Russell.

russell

See that little cross they added which references that he was suspended?  That barfed a script and it failed over by not failing so I didn’t know about it until I looked into why MIL starters was so low.  Part 6 will have the corrected table.  Most of it will look the same.

</end of Update>

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
HOU 44 44.3 15.1 29.2 20.5 8.7
BOS 54 43.7 28.8 14.9 9.8 5.1
LAN 21 38.0 18.0 20.0 11.4 8.6
NYA 38 34.5 24.0 10.5 -0.8 11.3
CLE 20 34.1 21.2 12.9 15.9 -3.0
ATL 18 28.8 12.3 16.5 11.2 5.3
MIL 29 25.7 12.2 13.4 2.5 11.0
COL 19 20.8 17.3 3.4 -0.3 3.7

Boston and Yankees have the two best hitting squads.  Today they are each fielding +27 lineups.   Houston’s ALDS Total playoff roster tops MLB  with BOS in a virtual tie.  Dodgers, who led during September expanded rosters, drop to third.  Colorado and Milwaukee bring up the rear with one of those teams guaranteed to advance.

There was some problems with data sources post regular season that seem to have been resolved.  May post simulation results with Expected Value tomorrow for all games in a single table.  So far home teams seem over valued by the market which means there may be home field advantage considerations for playoff season that need to be studied.  More on this later.  Until then ….

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 4

This will be the last playoff horse race post until after the wild card games when all 8 teams left have published their playoff rosters.  That starts the final stretch to the World Series finish line.  The table below still uses September expanded rosters.  Part 3 was published September 16.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 18 51.1 23.6 27.5 17.2 10.3
HOU 41 50.2 17.7 32.5 20.8 11.7
BOS 54 49.4 28.5 20.9 11.8 9.1
CLE 19 44.9 19.2 25.8 19.6 6.1
NYA 35 39.0 21.8 17.2 6.1 11.1
OAK 32 38.9 18.9 20.0 6.1 13.9
CHN 27 36.5 16.2 20.4 7.5 12.8
ATL 20 35.1 16.8 18.3 9.9 8.4
SLN 18 32.8 14.5 18.2 10.9 7.3
MIL 22 31.9 13.3 18.6 4.9 13.7
WAS 0 25.1 11.2 13.9 8.0 5.9
COL 15 21.2 11.5 9.7 0.8 8.9
TBA 19 17.6 -2.5 20.1 11.7 8.4
PHI 1 16.9 2.6 14.3 6.2 8.1
ARI 2 16.7 0.3 16.3 6.1 10.2

The above table is sorted by Total team WAA based upon current rosters and value according to this data model.

Bold dark blue teamids are those leading their divisions, green those holding a wild card spot, tan those still in the hunt.  AL has been locked up for awhile and right now only COL has a slim chance at overtaking SLN or LAN.

This table is somewhat different than last week.  The Dodgers ranked high in this table from Part 1 and now they’re essentially tied for first with Boston and Houston.  Cleveland rounds out  the top 4 and then Yankees.  Atlanta dropped.  National League teams round out the bottom of those teams with playoff spots.

Luckily for NL teams they have to play each other before  the World Series.  The above table has Dodgers  favored for NL and many teams close for AL.  We’ll see.   With the app you would be able to drill down into each team to see more detail as to what happened since last week.

The bold blue in  data columns are leaders, regular blue second for that category.  Even though Cubs have the best record in NL, they’re valued 2nd according to this data model.  Other than home field advantage, win/loss records are seasonal and cannot represent current team talent.  Rosters are constantly in flux throughout a season for all teams.

Not much more to say about the above.  Cubs start a new series with Pirates today.  Until then ….