Category Archives: Team Ranking

Cubs Cardinals Matchup 6/22/1984

Today the Cubs start a Friday to Sunday weekend series with the Cardinals. Let’s take a look at this matchup.

NL_East 19840621

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 36 27 -52.6 34.7 -4.8
PHI 37 29 39.9 24.7 -22.8
CHN 35 31 43.4 -11.3 3.2
WAS 33 34 -27.1 31.7 0.2
SLN 34 35 -31.1 10.7 14.2
PIT 26 39 -56.6 44.7 11.2

These are the standings you would know about before the start of this game today.  Cardinals in next to last place but close to 0.500 with terrible BAT and slightly above average PITCH.  We’ll see why in their lineup today and set of starters currently on their roster shown below.

Tier Combo Table

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN -1 X 0.369 X -1.77 -2.05 1.60  
CHN 4 X 0.631 X 3.57 -2.44 -0.58  

These two teams aren’t that far apart with respect to real team WAA (first column).  Cubs have a top tier +3.57/4 lineup.  Both teams starting pitchers  are underwater this season.  Cubs have a 63% probability of winning today, largely due to their top lineup going against Cardinals’ terrible starter.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-036- -1.99 52.7 John_Stuper SLN 8 -2.05
-014- -2.35 53.3 Rick_Reuschel CHN 6 -2.44

This could be considered the opposite of a pitching duel as both pitchers ranked in the bottom 50 of MLB at the start of today.  Both pitchers had a lot of rest.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
SLN 000300000 3 11 8 0
CHN 40000212 9 24 13 0

Cubs take out Stuper early while Reuschel gives up 3 in 7 1/3 innings which isn’t bad and the Cubs win handily teeing off on SLN relief.  Here are the lineups for today.

SLN Lineup 198406220

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.07 Tom_Herr SLN 2B 288
XXXXX -0.19 Andy_Van_Slyke SLN CF 192
XXXXX -0.86 Willie_McGee SLN CF 251
XXXXX 1.01 Darrell_Porter SLN CR 209
XXXXX 0.27 Mike_Jorgensen SLN 1B 36
XXXXX -0.02 Mark_Salas SLN CR 1
XXXXX -0.23 David_Green SLN 1B 152
XXXXX -0.88 Ozzie_Smith SLN SS 261
XXXXX -0.27 John_Stuper SLN PR 17
TOTAL -2.24

their

This lineup value concurs with their under water BAT in team status above.

CHN Lineup 198406220

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.25 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 248
+059+ 1.91 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 301
+035+ 2.44 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 259
+006+ 3.78 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 264
XXXXX -0.19 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 155
+033+ 2.48 Jody_Davis CHN CR 243
+070+ 1.72 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 239
-057- -1.64 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 196
XXXXX -0.08 Rick_Reuschel CHN PR 23
TOTAL 10.67

TC sim is counting pitcher’s hitting WAA again.  Leon Durham is in the top ten.  Cubs have solid hitting that will take them far if  pitching improves.

SLN START Roster 19840622

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
-036- -1.99 John_Stuper START 52.0 0
+045+ 2.27 Joaquin_Andujar START 129.0 2
-060- -1.57 Ken_Dayley START 20.0 3
+061+ 1.85 Ricky_Horton START 36.0 5
XXXXX -1.20 Danny_Cox START 79.0 6
TOTAL -0.64

Cardinals have two good starters and three bad starters.  Simulation only cares who starts for that day.

CHN START Roster 19840622

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
-014- -2.35 Rick_Reuschel START 53.0 0
-006- -2.79 Dennis_Eckersley START 103.0 1
XXXXX -0.57 Chuck_Rainey START 75.0 2
-011- -2.57 Rick_Sutcliffe START 102.0 3
XXXXX 0.71 Rich_Bordi START 40.0 8
TOTAL -7.57

Since we’re from the future we know this improves as the season progresses.

1984 Playoff Horse Race Part 1

As we approach the half way point of the season, let’s look at the playoff horse race as of today, Wednesday 6/20/1984.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
DET 32 22.06 16.50 1.89 3.67 5.7
PHI 9 12.68 8.25 2.08 2.35 -19.3
TOR 17 11.01 6.81 4.59 -0.39 9.7
ATL 10 10.19 7.33 -0.65 3.51 -1.3
BAL 10 9.52 3.49 3.72 2.31 -4.3
MIN -1 4.60 3.06 3.38 -1.84 1.7
SDN 13 4.58 3.71 -2.12 2.99 7.7
HOU -7 3.66 -5.62 5.61 3.67 1.7
ANA 3 3.12 2.78 -2.82 3.16 11.7
CHN 5 2.74 9.64 -6.64 -0.26 2.7
NYA -8 1.98 5.17 1.46 -4.65 -9.3

The above are end of day  W-L (WAA) after Cubs lose to Pittsburgh 5-1.  Horse race tables are sorted by the sum of player WAA according to the current roster of each team.  The above is the top half of MLB according to this data model.  In bold are the 4 playoff contenders as of today.

UR is unearned runs given up above average in units of runs.  As always, plus is good, negative is bad.  The Phillies (PHI) have the worst UR above which cripples them the second half of this season.

Detroit is way way ahead in both real WAA and Total WAA based on this data model.  Right now Cubs are valued around the middle of the pack based on total WAA which isn’t much different than where they stand with the league in real team WAA, the only stat in baseball that matters.  

The Cubs set of starters are worst of the top 12 after taking on negative value from Eckersley and Sutcliff and Reuschel pitching poorly.  Since we’re from the future we know that changes and we’ll see that from this data model as this season progresses.

That’s all for now.  Cubs team status might be next since this hasn’t been done yet or maybe after 6/22 when Cubs start a series with the Cardinals at Wrigley with Rick Reuschel on the mound.  Until then …. 

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 12

Now that we have all four playoff rosters here’s another edition of the playoff horse race series.  We’ll start with ELO, then this model, then WAR.elo10132019
I do not know how ELO is calculated.  Astros took a big hit however.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 71.2 31.5 26.7 13.0 14.4
WAS 24 51.0 24.9 20.9 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 45.3 31.6 3.5 10.1 11.4
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4

This data model still has HOU #1.  Valuation  for WAA and WAR tables are done using regular season results.  As always, the UR columns mean unearned runs above average, measured in runs.  All other columns are measured in wins.  It is interesting to note that all these teams have positive UR.  LAN and ATL had high negative UR and were bounced.  Not sure what this means right now but it’s something to look into in off season.  Currently UR is not incorporated in TC Sim.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 72.6 42.5 20.3 9.8 14.4
WAS 24 52.3 26.2 21.5 4.6 18.4
NYA 44 46.9 33.2 4.5 9.2 11.4
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

I’m pretty sure the above isn’t an error but not completely sure right now.   Total WAR is eerily close to Total WAA for each of these teams.  The two systems differ somewhat in the other categories.  Total is Hitters + Starters + Relief in each of these tables.  UR is shown for informational purposes only.

That is all for now.  ALDS Handicapping next.  Today will be a a rare two posts in a single day day.  Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 11

… and then there were 8.   Let’s look at the playoff horse race table for the final 8 horses in this race.

ELO

elo10042019

Looks like Dodgers eeked out Astros in ELO.  WAR has Dodgers near the bottom, this data model has them second to HOU.  Do not know how ELO is compiled so can’t comment further.  The next two tables are standard playoff horse race tables breaking down each team’s 25 player roster according to this data model (WAA) and WAR.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 63.0 28.1 26.2 8.7 14.4
LAN 50 53.8 21.1 24.5 8.3 -12.6
WAS 24 49.9 24.9 20.9 4.2 18.4
MIN 40 49.1 31.1 4.5 13.5 -14.6
NYA 44 42.3 28.6 1.6 12.1 11.4
ATL 32 38.2 14.0 13.7 10.5 -8.6
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4
TBA 30 19.3 -1.2 11.2 9.3 1.4

Houston has the best starting rotation while MIN has best hitters and relief.  Let’s see what WAR has to say.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 67.5 39.1 21.7 6.7 14.4
WAS 24 52.9 26.2 21.5 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 49.3 33.8 7.4 8.1 11.4
MIN 40 49.0 31.8 9.9 7.3 -14.6
TBA 30 45.7 27.1 10.6 8.0 1.4
ATL 32 44.2 22.7 14.0 7.5 -8.6
LAN 50 41.4 26.4 13.0 2.0 -12.6
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

Dodgers as a team gave up the fewest runs by far in MLB which means great pitching.  Below are the top two according to PITCH.

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 106 56 107.9 177.8 -12.6
HOU 107 55 139.9 127.8 14.4

The above shows the  LAN way above second place HOU.  WAA has LAN and HOU pitching around equal, top of the pack.  WAR has LAN Starter + Relief value at the bottom of these 8 teams.  That is simply not possible based on PITCH.  A team does not win by having more strikeouts or less walks than the other team.  Teams win by giving up fewer runs than the other team.

Handicapping 10/4/2019

The below will show game tables the four divisional games played today.

WAS LAN 10_04_9:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.417 0.420 97 2.63 2.95 -0.03
LAN 50 0.600 0.580 99 3.15 3.09 1.60

Vegas and TC Sim in agreement on this game except for …

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 6.11 0.654 178.3 3.09

Both pitchers about equal, each having a great season.  WAR has Strasburg ranked #15, Kershaw #95.  Here’s their post season records.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH
-008- -2.73 184.3 4.20 29 7 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH

Kershaw had problems in past post seasons and Strasburg hardly gave up any runs so far in his 33 innings of post season work.  Past results don’t affect future results.  All Cubs fans are thankful that playoff Clayton Kershaw came out to pitch in 2016 NLCS.  Handicapping is based upon the value of regular season Clayton Kershaw however.

TBA HOU 10_04_2:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.312 0.345 110 -0.54 1.68 2.04
HOU 52 0.722 0.655 90 4.00 4.00 1.79

Houston won this game.  Vegas had them at almost 3-1 favorites.  They had a maxed out lineup and starter today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 3.74 0.777 60.7 1.68
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander is the #1 player this season according to this data model.  He’s #5 with WAR.

SLN ATL 10_04_4:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.524 0.474 90 -0.31 4.00 2.29
ATL 32 0.500 0.526 105 2.14 -0.62 2.51

Vegas favors SLN slightly, TC Sim favors ATL slightly; both around 50/50 don’t know for this game.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL -0.15 0.494 117.0 -0.62

Flaherty is Cardinals’ best pitcher.

MIN NYA 10_04_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIN 40 0.370 0.494 133 3.95 1.57 3.72
NYA 44 0.655 0.506 77 3.64 0.90 3.13

Vegas has Yankees heavily favored.  TC Sim calls this game even steven.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Berrios_MIN 3.55 0.580 200.3 1.57
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.90

Neither starter has post season experience.

Looks like we’re at the end.  Handicapping post tomorrow and maybe with some drill down into playoff rosters for the ALDS teams.  Then we’ll do NLDS.   Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 10

This will be the last regular season playoff horse race post during regular season.

ELO

elo0916

The above is a screenshot taken today (9/16) of 538’s ELO model.  Don’t know how ELO is compiled or what a “Team Rating” number represents.  ELO has OAK and CLE now in top 5 with WAS bumped down to mid tier.  Since ELO does not break its numbers out like we do below there isn’t much to comment on.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
LAN 43 63.3 25.9 28.3 9.1 -15.6
HOU 45 58.6 29.1 26.8 2.8 12.4
NYA 45 41.5 34.0 -0.7 8.1 12.4
MIN 33 41.2 26.5 4.9 9.8 -14.6
WAS 16 37.0 16.8 18.8 1.4 17.4
ATL 35 35.5 17.5 13.5 4.5 -10.6
OAK 30 31.2 18.0 7.2 6.0 22.4
CHN 13 27.0 10.4 9.8 6.8 0.4
CLE 24 24.4 1.3 15.8 7.3 3.4
SLN 17 22.1 -2.2 13.5 10.8 10.4
BOS 9 17.1 20.2 -4.2 1.1 0.4
NYN 5 13.3 1.3 18.4 -6.5 10.4
TBA 27 12.7 -4.9 10.7 7.0 2.4
PHI 4 5.3 5.4 0.2 -0.3 0.4
MIL 11 0.7 1.8 5.8 -6.9 8.4

The above lists top 15 teams according to real team WAA (W-L) and then sorted on Total WAA according to this data model.  The numbers above are based on current rosters.  Since we’re in expanded roster month there may be some distortions up or down that may not represent  an actual 25 player playoff roster.  This model only counts stuff from current rosters and cannot discern who is there because of expansion.  The WAR table below is counted the same way.

WAA and WAR below has Cubs mid third; ELO has them low third.  All three models now have HOU and LAN top two and all relegate ATL to middle of the pack.  Cubs are on a sugar high with hitting because of their last three games with PIT where they put up double digit runs each game.  This propelled them ahead of SLN even though Cardinals are ahead in the only stat that matters in baseball.   Pitching has boosted SLN into first place in NL Central.

Unearned Runs above average (UR) has runs as units.  All other columns are WAA values  with wins as units.   LAN still has the worst UR but it’s up from past parts to this series.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 45 64.4 37.9 21.3 5.2 12.4
LAN 43 47.8 32.5 13.2 2.1 -15.6
OAK 30 47.4 30.6 11.2 5.6 22.4
NYA 45 46.9 33.9 6.4 6.6 12.4
WAS 16 46.2 21.6 20.1 4.5 17.4
MIN 33 42.9 29.9 7.3 5.7 -14.6
ATL 35 42.5 22.6 14.3 5.6 -10.6
CHN 13 42.1 22.8 12.7 6.6 0.4
BOS 9 41.6 24.2 7.9 9.5 0.4
TBA 27 38.2 22.3 10.1 5.8 2.4
CLE 24 37.1 17.6 13.3 6.2 3.4
SLN 17 36.9 21.4 10.3 5.2 10.4
NYN 5 35.2 18.1 17.4 -0.3 10.4
MIL 11 28.4 20.2 7.7 0.5 8.4
PHI 4 27.4 17.9 7.0 2.5 0.4

WAR has HOU way above 2nd place LAN in Total, so much so it could be its own tier.  These WAR and WAA tables are based on current rosters with values simply added together in each category.  HOU has best starting rotation in WAR, WAA has LAN with the best.  BOS has the best set of relievers according to WAR, WAA has SLN as the best.

Let’s spot check these numbers on where WAR and WAA differ most.  Both systems agree HOU has top notch pitching close enough to be tied for first.  WAR has LAN starting rotation mid tier.   In past parts to this series WAR has been shown to under value LAN pitching; both relief and starters.  Let’s look at starters.

LAN Starters WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+003+ 8.44 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 168.7
+025+ 5.56 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 165.3
+028+ 5.35 Walker_Buehler_LAN 171.3
+096+ 3.13 Julio_Urias_LAN 74.0
+144+ 2.27 Rich_Hill_LAN 53.7
+159+ 2.16 Ross_Stripling_LAN 84.7
XXXXX 1.36 Tony_Gonsolin_LAN 35.0
Total 28.27 0.669

Dodgers list 7 pitchers as starters which is a lot.   HOU follows closely in second for starter value and they only list 4 which is a typical playoff starting rotation.  Dodgers have 4 starters in top 100 which phenomenal.  Houston has three starters in the top ten which is even better according to this data model.

LAN Starters WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
+045+ 4.5 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN PITCH
+096+ 3.2 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH
+180+ 2.1 Walker_Buehler_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.0 Julio_Urias_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.9 Rich_Hill_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.8 Ross_Stripling_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.7 Tony_Gonsolin_LAN PITCH
Total 13.2

According to rank, WAR sees far less value in LAN starters than WAA.  How can that be when LAN still ranks far ahead of MLB in PITCH according to seasonal runs scored against.

Top 5 PITCH

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 97 54 95.1 159.8 -15.6
CLE 87 63 -19.9 118.9 3.4
SLN 83 66 -32.9 112.9 10.4
TBA 89 62 -9.9 111.8 2.4
HOU 98 53 138.1 105.7 12.4

These are the top 5 MLB teams according to PITCH which is a seasonal value.  There is no way Dodgers starters can be rated so low according to WAR having such high seasonal  PITCH.   Although current rosters can deviate from seasonal numbers, that’s not the case here.  All 5 of these teams should have top tier pitching ( relief + starters ) and they do according to WAA.  WAR has LAN ranked in bottom third of playoff teams with respect to total pitching which is absurd.

WAR under values relief as well.   Both BOS and SLN have major differences with WAR.

SLN Relief WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+058+ 3.82 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 67.3
+138+ 2.31 John_Brebbia_SLN 68.7
+192+ 1.85 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 31.0
XXXXX 1.62 John_Gant_SLN 64.3
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 41.7
XXXXX 0.69 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 45.7
XXXXX 0.48 Andrew_Miller_SLN 47.7
XXXXX 0.40 Tyler_Webb_SLN 49.0
XXXXX 0.29 Junior_Fernandez_SLN 8.7
XXXXX -0.10 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 16.7
XXXXX -0.90 Dominic_Leone_SLN 36.7
XXXXX -1.16 Mike_Mayers_SLN 16.7
Total 10.81 TIER=3.24

Tiers are calculated based upon the top 8 relievers.  Cardinals will have a very good relief staff going into the playoffs according to this data model. At Tier +3.24 SLN is over 1.5 standard deviation above league average for relief.

SLN Relief WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
+180+ 2.1 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 1.0 John_Brebbia_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.8 John_Gant_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.8 Carlos_Martinez_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.7 Ryan_Helsley_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.5 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.3 Tyler_Webb_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.2 Junior_Fernandez_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Andrew_Miller_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.4 Dominic_Leone_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.4 Mike_Mayers_SLN PITCH
Total 5.2

WAR only has one SLN reliever barely ranked in top 200.  One would think this is merely a so so relief staff just looking at the above numbers.

BOS Relief WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+060+ 3.78 Brandon_Workman_BOS 66.3
+189+ 1.85 Marcus_Walden_BOS 74.0
XXXXX 1.60 Josh_Taylor_BOS 45.3
XXXXX 0.55 Darwinzon_Hernandez_BOS 29.3
XXXXX 0.50 Matt_Barnes_BOS 59.0
XXXXX 0.19 Andrew_Cashner_BOS 142.3
XXXXX -0.02 Colten_Brewer_BOS 50.0
XXXXX -0.15 Travis_Lakins_BOS 18.7
XXXXX -0.55 Josh_A._Smith_BOS 29.0
XXXXX -0.63 Bobby_Poyner_BOS 8.0
XXXXX -0.65 Ryan_Weber_BOS 36.0
XXXXX -1.11 Ryan_Brasier_BOS 49.7
XXXXX -1.11 Hector_Velazquez_BOS 51.7
XXXXX -1.13 Mike_Shawaryn_BOS 17.3
-126- -2.06 Jhoulys_Chacin_BOS 94.3
Total 1.06 TIER=0.99

According to this model BOS relief, at Tier 0.99, are about 1/2 standard deviation above league average but well below the Cardinals’ +3.24 tier number.  Let’s see what WAR says.

BOS Relief WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
+119+ 2.8 Brandon_Workman_BOS PITCH
+126+ 2.7 Andrew_Cashner_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 1.4 Marcus_Walden_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 1.3 Josh_Taylor_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.9 Matt_Barnes_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.6 Colten_Brewer_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.3 Darwinzon_Hernandez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.2 Ryan_Weber_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Hector_Velazquez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Josh_Smith_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Travis_Lakins_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Jhoulys_Chacin_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Bobby_Poyner_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Mike_Shawaryn_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.3 Ryan_Brasier_BOS PITCH
Total 9.6

SLN relief had a total WAR=5.2 which is far less that the above 9.6.  WAR thinks BOS Relief >> SLN Relief.  This model has an opposite view where SLN >> BOS.  Which model is correct?

The next playoff horse race will be posted when the 8 teams in NLDS and ALDS release their 25 player rosters.  The two wild card games will be handicapped individually and there will be some historical playoff handicapping leading up to the actual playoffs.  Final Cubs status for regular season coming in a few days.  Until then ….