Category Archives: Team Status

Cubs Status 9/20/2019

This will be the final Cubs Status for 2019 with only 10 days left in the regular season.   Let’s look at this Cubs team right now as it fights for a spot in the playoff season.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 77 66 8.3 71.0 4.4 20190910
CHN 82 71 39.7 74.3 1.6 20190920

In the last 10 days Cubs went from +11 to +11 moving exactly sideways.  Sideways is fine for June and July but not in September for teams hoping to make the playoffs let alone go far in the playoffs.

Cubs run differential suggest a WAA of around +24 so they are way under that.  This means Cubs are piling on runs in winning situations and losing close games; like yesterday’s 5-4 loss to SLN.  Pythagorean Expectation is an estimate based on historical averages.  The Commissioner of MLB only cares about W-L, real team WAA.

CHN 5 years

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150920 25 4.2 61.3 -9.5
20160920 41 66.4 156.3 6.0
20170920 17 54.4 46.2 -4.4
20180920 26 31.6 68.8 9.1
20190920 11 39.7 74.3 1.6

It looks like Cubs Team 2017 has surpassed Team 2019.  Team 2017 would be 1 game behind the Team 2019 Cardinals.  With only 9 games left in the season Team 2019 has no way of reaching +22 where Team 2017 finished making this season the worst showing for CHN in the last 5 years.  Taking in account the last 70 years however this is a top top tier season.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 1.57
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.69
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.64
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.41
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.61
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.26
RP 2.44

These are tier assignments for various categories.  Cubs fielded a very good lineup yesterday.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+050+ 4.54 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 171.0
+180+ 1.93 Yu_Darvish_CHN 170.3
+183+ 1.87 Cole_Hamels_CHN 137.7
XXXXX 0.50 Jose_Quintana_CHN 162.7
XXXXX -0.02 Jon_Lester_CHN 165.7
Total 8.82 0.549

This is a decent starting rotation.  At rank #50 Kyle Hendricks is Cubs most valuable player this season.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+145+ 2.29 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 57.7
+158+ 2.14 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 54.3
+166+ 2.08 Steve_Cishek_CHN 61.7
XXXXX 1.47 Rowan_Wick_CHN 32.0
XXXXX 1.30 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 76.3
XXXXX 1.13 David_Phelps_CHN 30.7
XXXXX 0.67 Alec_Mills_CHN 26.3
XXXXX 0.32 Danny_Hultzen_CHN 3.0
XXXXX 0.21 Duane_Underwood_CHN 8.0
XXXXX 0 James_Norwood 0
XXXXX -0.44 Dillon_Maples_CHN 9.7
XXXXX -0.59 Pedro_Strop_CHN 38.3
XXXXX -0.63 Brad_Wieck_CHN 31.7
XXXXX -0.65 Craig_Kimbrel_CHN 19.7
-134- -2.04 Derek_Holland_CHN 81.3
Total 7.26 TIER=2.44

Kyle Ryan is now around tied with Cishek and Kintzler who all put up decent numbers in relief.  We covered Kyle Ryan in the AAA minor league report last season.  Chatwood also put up a decent season.  Maybe he can excel in long relief like Mike Montgomery.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+063+ 3.76 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+066+ 3.72 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+098+ 3.13 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
+121+ 2.73 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
+141+ 2.35 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.86 Nico_Hoerner_CHN SS
XXXXX 0.82 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
XXXXX 0.48 Ian_Happ_CHN LF-2B-CF
XXXXX 0.27 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX 0.02 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF
XXXXX -0.15 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B
XXXXX -0.25 Robel_Garcia_CHN 2B
XXXXX -0.29 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -1.07 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -1.11 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -1.34 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B
XXXXX -1.36 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
-199- -1.55 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
Total 11.02 0.532

The usual suspects top the list here.  Nobody in top 25 or top 10 however.  In the last 10 days Bryant went from unranked to blowing through ranks 100-200 ending just barely in top 100.  Not a bad year.

Castellanos at +0.82 started with the Cubs at -2.27 meaning he gained +3 in less than two months; a tremendous rate.  Unfortunately this model does not give out mulligans.   If you kill it on the back 9 you still have to count the front 9.   Without Castellanos Cubs would be at a real team WAA of +8 , 5 1/2 games behind SLN and 2 1/2 games behind MIL.

That is all for now.  This is playoff season for the Cubs from now until the end of regular season which is why Baez and Rizzo are back.  Horse race and handicapping for historical playoff seasons coming next.  Until then ….

Cubs Status 9/10/2019

We’re 1/3 through the last 1/6 of the 2019 season which means we’re 16/18 or 7/8 done.  Cubs still hanging on to the last Wild Card spot but are they done?  Let’s do another Cubs Status and see.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 69 61 3.7 55.3 4.0 20190827
CHN 77 66 8.3 71.0 4.4 20190910

In the last two weeks they went from +8 to +11 gaining 3 games which is pretty good.  PITCH doing very well while BAT, based on seasonal runs scored, is hovering around league average.  Seasonal numbers are one set, who currently represents each team as of now is another set.  Let’s drill down into this current team.

CHN 5 Year Split

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150910 22 -5.9 55.2 -4.3
20160910 39 60.1 152.6 5.7
20170910 11 37.3 37.9 -6.7
20180910 23 42.0 56.9 6.1
20190910 11 8.3 71.0 4.4

This table shows Cubs on this day this year and the last four.  Team 2019 still tied with Team 2017 as of 9/10.  Since we’re from the future we know that team 2017 ends the season +22 so they really pick up steam starting now.  That momentum helped that team beat the best team in MLB at the time according to this data model.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineup -0.57
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.54
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.71
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.31
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.44
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.83
Relief 2.16

This table shows tier numbers used in simulation for Lineup, Starter and Relief.  Lineup based on yesterday is under water even though they scored a lot of runs.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+042+ 4.54 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 159.7
+175+ 1.97 Jose_Quintana_CHN 157.3
+190+ 1.81 Cole_Hamels_CHN 130.0
XXXXX 1.55 Yu_Darvish_CHN 157.3
XXXXX 0.13 Jon_Lester_CHN 155.7
Total 10.00 0.559

Hendricks putting up another solid year.  He should look good in the 2017, 2018, 2019 three year split we’ll do at the end of this season.  The rest of the rotation is OK.  Lester is usually gold in playoff season — if the Cubs can get there.  Not sure who Maddon pitches in the Wild Card game which most likely will be in Washington this year.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+113+ 2.58 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 54.0
+155+ 2.08 Steve_Cishek_CHN 59.3
+176+ 1.95 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 54.0
XXXXX 1.07 Rowan_Wick_CHN 26.0
XXXXX 0.88 David_Phelps_CHN 28.0
XXXXX 0.84 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 69.3
XXXXX 0.40 Duane_Underwood_CHN 5.7
XXXXX 0.38 Alec_Mills_CHN 21.3
XXXXX 0.10 Danny_Hultzen_CHN 1.0
XXXXX -0.69 Pedro_Strop_CHN 35.0
XXXXX -0.80 Adbert_Alzolay_CHN 12.3
XXXXX -1.01 Brad_Wieck_CHN 28.0
-120- -2.10 Derek_Holland_CHN 80.3
Total 5.68 Tier=2.16

Expanded rosters bring in a lot of relievers.  Tiering is done on top 8 but not sure if that’s accurate.  Tiering Relief in general is a work in progress and in particular expanded rosters pose issues.  More on this in off season simulation talk.

Cubs have 3 ranked relievers and mostly above average others.  Strop having an off year.  At Tier 2.16 they’re a little above one standard deviation above league average based on current rosters.

Sometimes anecdotal incidents like blown games which this squad had done frequently this season can distort ones’ view of the big picture.  Cubs had a lot of relievers on IL  this season.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+105+ 2.75 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+147+ 2.18 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
+169+ 2.02 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 1.68 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX NA Nico_Hoerner_CHN BAT
XXXXX 0.25 Ian_Happ_CHN LF-2B-CF
XXXXX 0.15 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX -0.08 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
XXXXX -0.17 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF
XXXXX -0.21 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B
XXXXX -0.21 Robel_Garcia_CHN 2B
XXXXX -1.28 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -1.34 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B
-187- -1.43 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
XXXXX -1.45 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
-166- -1.64 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
Total 1.72 0.506

Hitting has been average according to BAT in team status but teams usually need to win more than 90 games to make the playoffs.  Winning 90 games is a real team WAA of +18.   Playing average doesn’t cut it.

Baez is out for the season, Rizzo dropped out of top 100 which is low for him, and Bryant is now unranked, out of top 200 according to this data model.  Since we’re still on Nick Castellanos watch …

Nicholas Castellanos CHN RF-DH

Date Rank WAA
0805 -133- -2.27
0809 XXXXX -1.39
0813 XXXXX -1.53
0817 XXXXX -1.68
0821 XXXXX -1.55
0825 XXXXX -0.99
0829 XXXXX -1.18
0902 XXXXX -0.69
0906 XXXXX -0.40
0910 XXXXX -0.08

Castellanos gained around +2.2 since joining Cubs a little over a month ago.  This added  value has carried the negative value incurred by the rest of Cubs bats keeping  run production above water compare to the rest of the league.  Without Castellanos’ contribution, the Cubs would be around +9 instead of +11.  That’s how this model works.

NL 09-10-2019

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 93 52 99.3 149.0 -15.6
ATL 90 55 82.3 32.1 -12.6
SLN 81 62 -32.7 103.1 9.4
WAS 79 63 61.3 37.2 15.4
CHN 77 66 8.3 71.0 4.4
MIL 75 68 -16.7 -14.9 7.4
ARI 75 69 40.3 22.0 16.4
PHI 74 69 1.8 -14.8 5.4
NYN 73 70 -0.2 12.1 8.4

This is the NL Wild Card race right now.  If Team 2019 finishes like Team 2017 Cubs could even overtake SLN for NL Central.  If if and ands were pork and beans a lot more people would eat them.

That is all for now.  New playoff horse race in a couple of days as well as historical playoff handicapping.  Since we’re from the future we’ll know the results.  Until then ….

Cubs Status 8/17/2019

After several heart breaking losses it appears the Cubs are tanking.  Since we haven’t done this in 10 days let’s step back from the ledge and look at Cubs status moving forward because the past is water under the bridge.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 61 52 11.8 55.8 3.4 20190807
CHN 64 58 8.8 52.9 2.5 20190817

Cubs went 3-6 losing 3 games in the last 10 days which is very bad for a team hoping to make the playoffs let alone one that wants to win it all.  Surprisingly both BAT and PITCH remained relatively stable.  Ian Happ’s funny error is probably the reason for the slight drop in UR which is still decent.  Could be worse.

NL Central 20190817

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 64 56 -58.2 77.9 8.5
CHN 64 58 8.8 52.9 2.5
MIL 63 59 -13.2 -12.9 6.5
CIN 57 64 -40.7 44.8 16.5
PIT 51 70 -18.2 -49.0 -19.5

Cubs in second behind St. Louis who have very weak hitting based upon runs scored.  Their pitching is compensating however and the MLB Commish only cares about the W/L columns — not run differential.

CHN  5 year split

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150817 18 -25.7 58.4 -0.3
20160817 33 63.8 128.6 10.0
20170817 6 18.8 39.3 -8.7
20180817 21 38.4 44.8 7.1
20190817 6 8.8 52.9 2.5

This table shows comparison of today’s status with that of the last 4 years.  Team 2019 is now tied with Team 2017 although the trends are reversed.  This means if you’re in “the trend is your friend don’t buck the trend” camp Team 2019 is in trouble.  Team 2017 was trending up right now.   If you’re in the Fangraphs favorite; “regress to the mean” camp then there is hope for Team 2019 and throw cold water on Team 2017.   Since we’re from the future Team 2017 follows trend is your friend through the end of that season.  CUbs fans are hoping for regress to the mean for the next 6 weeks.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 0.43
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.21
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.04
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.23
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.34
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.44
Relief 0.09

This table shows tier numbers for lineups, starters, and relief.  Hendricks and Hamels down from past reports, Quintana and Darvish up, even steven.  Lester pitches today so maybe he can start something.

Lineup is down from earlier in the year.  At 0.09 Relief is actually even steven but that’s because Cubs got Kintzler back and got rid of some negative value.  Ironically Team 2017 relief carried Cubs first half and tanked the second.  Team 2019 Cubs relief has been pretty mediocre all season.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+048+ 3.78 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 136.3
+127+ 2.21 Cole_Hamels_CHN 109.7
XXXXX 1.41 Jose_Quintana_CHN 135.7
XXXXX 1.11 Yu_Darvish_CHN 139.0
XXXXX 0.38 Jon_Lester_CHN 128.0
Total 8.89 0.562

Hendricks has been a rock solid pitcher every year for the Cubs since 2016.  Lester has potential to finish strong like he did last season.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.23 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 46.7
XXXXX 1.32 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 46.0
XXXXX 0.84 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 57.3
XXXXX 0.71 Rowan_Wick_CHN 16.7
XXXXX 0.65 David_Phelps_CHN 22.3
XXXXX 0.15 Duane_Underwood_CHN 3.3
XXXXX -0.63 Pedro_Strop_CHN 29.7
-110- -2.04 Derek_Holland_CHN 75.7
Total 3.23 0.549

This is a completely mediocre relief staff — still — even after blowing several games in the 9th inning.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+042+ 3.93 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+125+ 2.21 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+143+ 2.04 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 0.80 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.80 Ian_Happ_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.08 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX -0.27 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR
XXXXX -0.73 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -0.78 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -0.82 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -0.86 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
XXXXX -1.68 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
Total 4.72 0.521

Baez having another stellar year but not as good as last season and not MVP worthy yet.  He’s almost exactly where Christian Yelich was on this day last season.

Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF

YEAR Rank WAA
20181001 +005+ 8.40
20180927 +009+ 7.48
20180923 +012+ 6.59
20180919 +011+ 6.24
20180915 +013+ 5.86
20180911 +018+ 5.59
20180907 +016+ 5.69
20180903 +014+ 5.73
20180830 +016+ 5.12
20180826 +030+ 4.12
20180822 +030+ 3.97
20180818 +035+ 3.72

You have to read this from bottom up right now.  Ranks in this model are among both pitchers and batters so being Ranked #5 at the end of 2018 still made him the top ranked NL hitter.  The above shows it was quite a run Yelich had making it very possible for Baez.    Cubs need some players streaking like this now if they want any shot of contending in the playoffs.

Since Castellanos came to CHN with such negative value we’ll be on Castellanos watch for awhile to further demonstrate what these numbers mean and how this model works.  Negative value reflects the past and Castellanos put up negative value for DET and part of the reason why they have a real team WAA of -45.  Whether Castellanos was partly at fault for that or a mere victim of circumstance is unknown to all.  He had a good season last year, decent game stats this year, and is very young.

Player acquisition is a skill few people can do successfully which is why it’s so hard for some teams to break free from the cellar year after year (hello CHA!) even employing highly paid General Managers and staff.  I am not qualified to do that job.  This model merely shows an accurate representation of the past.  If a GM is evaluating an acquisition thinking a player’s past was good or great when that player actually ( Joe Maddon’s word ) sucked, then they are basing their decision on a shaky foundation.

WAA for players in this model can go up as fast as it can go down.  Here’s a progression of Castellanos since the Cubs acquired him.

Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH

YEAR Rank WAA
0801 -068- -2.12
0805 -133- -2.27
0809 XXXXX -1.39
0813 XXXXX -1.53
0817 XXXXX -1.68

He gained let’s say 0.5 WAA in around 2 weeks which is very good.  If you extrapolate that over a 6 month season ( which you shouldn’t ) that’s 12 weeks time 0.5 equals +6 WAA for a season.  This would rank him in the top 25 MLB players by end of season — if he could play like this for 6 months straight — which only 25 out of >1000 MLB players can each season.

Baseball has ebbs and flows that affect players as well as entire teams.  The Catellanos gamble is paying dividends right now.

That is all.  Blast from the past playoff horse races coming next.  Until then.

Cubs Team Status

It has been around 3 weeks since we did a Cubs Team Status post.  They finish a series with Oakland today before staring another one with CIN tomorrow.  Let’s look at this Cubs team according to current rosters.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 51 44 29.1 38.1 -1.7 20190717
CHN 61 52 11.8 55.8 3.4 20190807

Cubs wen from +7 three weeks ago to +9 as of yesterday gaining 2 games.  Adding three wins per month is around par for the course for a team hoping to make the playoffs, thus Cubs need to be around +15 by the end of August.  PITCH improved more than BAT tanked.

CHN 5 year split

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150807 12 -27.9 44.7 -0.7
20160807 28 60.8 110.5 8.1
20170807 7 7.7 39.7 -7.0
20180807 19 58.4 39.6 5.0
20190807 9 11.8 55.8 3.4

Cubs made the playoffs each of the last 4 years.   The above table shows where they were on this day for each of the 5 years.  Team 2017 is gaining ground on team 2019.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 0.86
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -0.17
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 2.95
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 3.00
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.44
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.29
RP -0.84

Above are  tier assignments for various categories.  Hendricks and Hamels top Cubs’ starter rotation; both having an around a +3 tier number.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+026+ 4.33 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 126.7
+034+ 4.12 Cole_Hamels_CHN 104.7
XXXXX 0.48 Yu_Darvish_CHN 126.0
XXXXX 0.34 Jose_Quintana_CHN 122.7
XXXXX 0.17 Jon_Lester_CHN 123.0
Total 9.44 0.570

Both Hendricks and Hamels rank in top 100.  The rest are above average.  Lester is one of the all time top performers in playoff season however so if Cubs make the playoffs they have 3 very good starting pitchers.  Unfortunately the next table isn’t so good.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+183+ 1.55 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 42.7
XXXXX 1.22 Steve_Cishek_CHN 49.3
XXXXX 0.48 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 54.3
XXXXX 0.25 David_Phelps_CHN 18.7
XXXXX 0.21 Duane_Underwood_CHN 2.0
XXXXX 0 Rowan_Wick 0
XXXXX -0.44 Pedro_Strop_CHN 27.7
-098- -1.97 Derek_Holland_CHN 74.3
Total 1.30 Tier=-0.84

At Tier# -0.84 Cubs relief is almost 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current rosters.  Under water relief is not good for any team thinking they can go all the way in the playoffs.   Notably missing is Kintzler, ranked #94, and Kimbrel who both went on IL.  Kintzler’s +2.37 WAA would propel Cubs relief around league average.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+037+ 3.93 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+095+ 2.35 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+140+ 1.91 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 0.67 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.15 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX 0.13 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.10 Taylor_Davis_CHN BAT
XXXXX -0.08 Ian_Happ_CHN BAT
XXXXX -0.42 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -0.71 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
-175- -1.43 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
XXXXX -1.85 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
Total 4.75 0.523

Cubs hitting squad took a hit from acquiring Castellanos from DET.  We covered Castellanos career in the MIL matchup post earlier. Note: Tier numbers are calculated on lineups not complete hitting squads.

Castellenos is young, was ranked last season, and has potential to recover much of his negative value these next 7 weeks.  Player acquisition is  gambling where not all bets will pay off.  A GM can only hope that his entire decision tree gives his team an edge over the other 29 teams.

This model is a more accurate reflection of the past than any Sabermetric value stat.  It can’t predict the future.  If a GM is getting bad information about the past using flawed stats  developed for Draft Kings teams and not real baseball teams then acquisition decisions are built upon a faulty foundation.  The past is the foundation from which one can estimate the future.  This model only presents the past.

That is all for now.  Matchup post with CIN will start up again tomorrow.  Until then ….

Cubs Status 7/21/2019

We haven’t done a Cubs Status since 6/14 or around 5 weeks ago.  Baseball generally moves at a glacial pace however.  Let’s look at this Cubs team.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 39 31 28.9 35.5 -1.4 20190616
CHN 54 44 26.5 44.1 0.0 20190721

In the past 5 weeks Cubs went 15-13 gaining 2 games, going from +8 to +10 in the WAA column.  BAT stayed around the same and PITCH improved a little as well as UR which is at 0.0, completely even steven with the league.  BAT, PITCH, and UR are in units of runs.

CHN 5 years

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150721 8 -28.0 49.9 -0.5
20160721 20 55.8 89.1 5.1
20170721 3 -2.2 27.8 -7.1
20180721 17 64.2 37.9 3.2
20190721 10 26.5 44.1 0.0

The above are team status records on 7/21 for the last 5 years.  The year 2017 was the worst but Cubs finished well making it to the NLCS losing to LAN — who are having another stellar season.  Not much more to say about this table other than the last 5 seasons have been great for Cubs fans.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 0.30
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -0.52
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.67
SP Jon_Lester_CHN 0.86
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.42
Relief 0.23

Tier numbers are used in simulation and measure the number of 1/2 standard deviations above or below league average based upon current rosters.  All starters on 30 MLB teams get averaged together into a distribution.  Lineups and Relief are groups of players and those too get averaged among the 30 MLB teams.

Cubs lineup takes a hit with the loss of Contreras being replaced with the negative hitting value Maldonado brings.  Earlier in the season their lineup hovered between 1 and 2 and now it’s between 0 and 1.  Today it’s at 0.30.

Relief isn’t as good as in previous years either as they’re just above league average and sometimes dip below.  It could be worse however.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+073+ 2.46 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 101.3
+161+ 1.60 Jon_Lester_CHN 107.0
XXXXX 0.23 Jose_Quintana_CHN 112.0
XXXXX 0.13 Yu_Darvish_CHN 109.0
XXXXX NA Alec_Mills_CHN 6.0
Total 4.42 0.546

Kyle Hendricks followed by Jon Lester currently lead the Cubs rotation.  Hendricks, like Rizzo, slowly rise to the top each season.  Both are listed in the top 25 players for the three year split of 2016, 2017, and 2018 and they’ll probably be ranked higher in next year’s edition.

Starters get evaluated individually with a tier number for the games they start.  The 4.42 Total WAA is used to calculate a team’s Total WAA for all categories for Playoff Horse Race tables.  The 0.546 WinPct is almost exactly their 0.551 WinPct based upon real wins and losses.  That’s just a coincidence however.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+103+ 2.18 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 40.7
+124+ 1.93 Steve_Cishek_CHN 44.3
XXXXX 1.03 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 33.7
XXXXX 0.21 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 46.0
XXXXX -0.06 Pedro_Strop_CHN 25.3
XXXXX -0.13 Craig_Kimbrel_CHN 8.7
XXXXX -0.32 Carl_Edwards_CHN 15.0
-134- -1.47 Brad_Brach_CHN 36.0
Total 3.37 Tier# = 0.23

League average for relief is now at 2.90 so Cubs are just a little above average with a Tier number of only 0.23.  This probably isn’t good enough for winning in the  playoffs  but it could be worse.  Strop, Kimbrel and Edwards are all talented and could raise the value of this squad in a month or so to the point they start dancing again.  We’ll just have to wait and see.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+043+ 3.30 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+045+ 3.23 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+090+ 2.27 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 0.48 Robel_Garcia_CHN BAT
XXXXX 0.34 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX 0.25 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.13 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX -0.17 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -0.73 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -1.16 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B
-129- -1.49 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
-044- -2.54 Martin_Maldonado_CHN CR
Total 3.91 0.522

BAT in team status indicates Cubs are well above average in hitting but this set of players indicates otherwise.  This is a good example of how a seasonal stat can deceive.  Maldonado is very underwater with the BAT although most all that negative value was incurred in Kansas City not the Cubs.   Contreras, ranked #85 with a WAA = 2.33 will almost cancel Madonado out when he returns.

Sometimes it’s good to invest negative hitting value for a good catcher who can improve pitching.  This model merely provides an accurate look into what investment a team is making.

That is all for now.  Cubs start a new series with someone soon so we’ll pick it up when that happens.  Until then ….