Category Archives: Trades

Leonys Martin

Cubs just acquired Leonys Martin from Seattle, the same team that sent over Mike Mongomery last season which worked out well.  Seattle just acquired Mike Leake from SLN because they’re in the hunt for a wild card only 3.5 games behind MIN.  I don’t know how this waivers system works but let’s look at Leonys Martin’s MLB career so far.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2011 0.0 Leonys_Martin_TEX X XXXXX
2012 0.1 Leonys_Martin_TEX CF XXXXX
2013 0.7 Leonys_Martin_TEX CF-RF XXXXX
2014 -1.7 Leonys_Martin_TEX CF -137-
2015 -1.7 Leonys_Martin_TEX CF -142-
2016 -1.3 Leonys_Martin_SEA CF XXXXX
2017 -0.9 Leonys_Martin_SEA CF-RF XXXXX
Total -4.8

This season has been his 7th year in MLB.   Overall below average but the above is his offensive abilities and I read he’s a defense guy and a speed guy which can be valuable  as a pinch runner and to run down fly balls late in close games.   Maddon probably won’t use him as a pinch hitter unless he has no other choice.

Here is Martin’s full line this season and his AAA line.

Rank WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 1.11 0.312 0.352 372 39 62 Leonys_Martin_SEA BAT aaa
XXXXX -0.94 0.174 0.221 122 8 12 Leonys_Martin_SEA CF-RF mlb

He’s unranked but at least hit above average in AAA.   <anti jinx on> We may see him in October if eligible. <anti jinx off>

Edit: My comment that we may see Martin in the playoffs was in reference to a roster move Joe Maddon made in 2015 by adding Quintin Berry to the NLCS playoff roster.  I never heard of him  when it was announced.    Maddon pulled Berry from AAA for no other reason than he was fast and Maddon wants a fast guy in his tool chest for close playoff games.  You can see the 2015 Cubs’ NLCS roster here and peruse Quintin’s short baseball career here.  When I heard about the acquisition of Martin it reminded me of 2015 and what Maddon must be planning for these upcoming playoffs.

Cubs make a trade

Apparently the Cubs just traded minor leaguer Jeimer Candelario to DET for reliver Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila.  Let’s look at their careers so far.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2012 0.2 Justin_Wilson_PIT PITCH XXXXX
2013 3.0 Justin_Wilson_PIT PITCH +089+
2014 -0.7 Justin_Wilson_PIT PITCH XXXXX
2015 1.2 Justin_Wilson_NYA PITCH XXXXX
2016 0.1 Justin_Wilson_DET PITCH XXXXX
2017 1.7 Justin_Wilson_DET PITCH +155+
Total 5.5

Justin had a career year in 2013 so that’s his upside potential.  At +5.5 he’s a solid acquisition and he is pitching well this season ranked #155.  He’s still young and will be pitching for a future contract.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2009 0.7 Alex_Avila_DET CR XXXXX
2010 -1.5 Alex_Avila_DET CR -197-
2011 2.6 Alex_Avila_DET CR +110+
2012 -0.7 Alex_Avila_DET CR XXXXX
2013 0.8 Alex_Avila_DET CR XXXXX
2014 -0.4 Alex_Avila_DET CR XXXXX
2015 -1.4 Alex_Avila_DET CR-1B -188-
2016 -1.9 Alex_Avila_CHA CR -137-
2017 -0.2 Alex_Avila_DET CR-1B XXXXX
Total -2.0

The Cubs needed help in catching and Avila can also play 1B which is a plus because that means Maddon can rest Rizzo every now and then.  He’s a slightly below average hitter but that doesn’t matter if he can catch and we don’t have a model to evaluate that.  He’s a veteran and has been in the league for 8+ years.  The Cubs need some experience behind the plate and that takes pressure off Contreras who is having a very good year hitting.

The guy the Cubs gave up played for Iowa. Here are his stats so far this season.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct
XXXXX 0.86 Jeimer_Candelario_CHN BAT 0.563

He’s above average with a decent WinPct for Iowa.    We don’t have data on his previous seasons in AA or A+.   He had 36 plate appearances for the MLB Cubs but that isn’t enough to make any kind of evaluation.  Trade seems good and even though the Cubs have a top tier relief staff, you can never have enough pitchers.

Cubs acquire Jose Quintana

The Cubs acquired starting pitcher Jose Quintana from the White Sox for 4 prospects which you can read about here where I first found out.  I looked up those 4 prospects and couldn’t find them in either the AA or AAA database.  We haven’t done A+ or A leagues this season so we cannot comment on their value.  We can, however, comment on Jose Quintana.  Let’s take a look at his career.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2012 0.8 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH XXXXX
2013 1.7 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH XXXXX
2014 2.1 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH +151+
2015 2.8 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH +089+
2016 4.7 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH +038+
2017 0.0 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH XXXXX
Total 12.1

Jose Quintana is an outstanding pitcher who may have many many more years of good pitching left in his arm.  This is a real coup and hopefully the White Sox will benefit from those four prospects.   Let’s look at a full line for Jose this season.

Rank WAA IP ERA W L Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 0.04 104.3 4.49 4 8 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH

According to this data model he’s almost completely average this season.  Most places will tout his 4-8 win/loss record but that’s meaningless.  Let’s look at his ups and downs so far this season:

Date WAA Name_TeamID Pos
2017-04-15 -0.36 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-04-23 -1.03 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-05-01 -0.57 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-05-08 -0.15 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-05-15 0.08 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-05-22 0.63 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-05-29 -0.73 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-06-04 -1.83 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-06-11 -1.36 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-06-19 -1.09 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-06-27 -0.32 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH
2017-07-07 0.13 Jose_Quintana_CHA PITCH

Quintana had a rocky year so far with a rough April which he climbed out of and then tanked again.  He has gained +1.83 since 6/4 which is a little over a month.  This is very good.  If he pitches like that for the Cubs in the next 2 1/2 months that would be another +4 for the Cubs.  Our previous estimate yesterday was 92-94 wins if the core championship team started playing like last year.  Another +4 puts them in 94-96 category.  If the NL Central can be taken with 88 wins like in 2003 there is plenty of cushion.

EDIT:  I fell into the stat trap by extrapolating a short term rate to a full season.  That is not proper.  The Cubs can only hope he pitches like his 2016 career high value of +4.7 for the second half of the season.  Divide that by 2 and the Cubs would get +2 out of this trade which would only increase our optimistic estimate from 92-70 to 93-69.  There are  a lot moving parts on a baseball team and one trade won’t do it all.

A team cannot have many sub average pitchers if they expect to advance in the playoffs.  Quintana will fit nicely with Lester, Hendricks , Arrieta, and Montgomery.  Out of those 5 Maddon can pick 4 and Montgomery may be more valuable to the team in relief.

This looks like a good trade.  Future prospects are always a risk.  It’s possible Quintana’s contract is up at the end of this season which means 1) he’ll be pitching for his new contract and 2) if the Cubs won’t be able to afford his asking price that means he pitched well for them.

Tomorrow Cubs start a series with BAL.  Until then….