NLCS Handicapping Report 10/15/2018

DATE 10_15_7:35_PM MIL LAN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.392 ] < 0.385 > +160 $260
STARTAWAY 2.73(0.564) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 2
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.623 ] < 0.636 > -175 $157
STARTHOME 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.494 MIL 4.27 runs
LAN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.506 LAN 4.31 runs

EXPECTED VALUE MIL LAN
Tier Combo 128 79
Home Field 120 85

At 0.636 break even probability,  bettors are paying a big premium to bet the Dodgers tonight.  Tier Combo simulations call this an even steven game.  Milwaukee’s better relief balances out Dodgers’ better starter in Buehler.  Lineups are almost identical in value and they both hover around the Tier 1/2 league border of +15.  Simulations do not use hard tier borders so they consider them equal,  Hard Lineup Tier numbers for these two teams were reversed in the last two games.

Due to this large premium a MIL bet will net $260 on a $100 bet for a $160 profit whereas Dodger bettors can only expect a profit of $57 should they win.  If the simulations are correct, this means an Expected Value on a $100 MIL bet to be $128.  It drops to $120 based upon historical home field advantage.

Based upon Part 7 of Playoff Horse Race, the Dodgers have a deeper bench with respect to hitting.  Simulations do not take bench value into account presently.  Also, the above is based upon posted lineups from Saturday.  They should be close enough today where it might not sway the outcome in Dodgers’ favor that much.

BTW: Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com pegs this game at 61%/39% LAN/MIL break even probability which is within the house spread.  Vegas lines seem to hover around wherever his model sets them.  This will be an off season study as Nate makes available all his data for the year.  We have historical lines data, his data, and Tier Combo data.  Since we’re from the future we will find out  who is most accurate.  Until then ….

Might update this post with current lineups when they come out later.

Update:  Lineups are in for 10/15.  LAN goes to Tier 1 and MIL drops to Tier 2.  They are still close but LAN is better today.  This drops TC sim EV for the MIL line to 123 from 128.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10152018
-1.32 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 620
8.44 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 651
2.27 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 447
2.73 Travis_Shaw_MIL 3B-2B-1B 587
6.26 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 566
1.55 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 3B-DH 635
-0.90 Erik_Kratz_MIL CR 219
-2.21 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 366
-1.30 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL PR 68
Total WAA=15.52 PA=4159 WinPct=0.572

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10152018
2.42 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-CF 443
4.98 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B-3B-2B 481
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
2.58 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 444
1.91 Yasmani_Grandal_LAN CR 518
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
-0.88 Walker_Buehler_LAN PR 47
Total WAA=19.95 PA=4162 WinPct=0.592

2018 ALCS Handicapping Report

DATE 10_14_7:05_PM HOU BOS

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.498 ] < 0.565 > -130 $176
STARTAWAY 5.86(0.632) Gerrit_Cole_HOU TIER 1
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LINEHOME BOS [ 0.526 ] < 0.476 > +110 $210
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 2
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TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.522 HOU 4.61 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.478 BOS 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE HOU BOS
Tier Combo 92 100
Home Field 81 113

Boston lost yesterday.  They are underdog today with both TC simulations and the market.

2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 7

Here’s a dump of the playoff horse race featuring the last 4 teams in the race.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 52.0 28.1 23.9 14.9 9.0
HOU 44 49.1 17.3 31.8 19.7 12.2
BOS 54 47.7 31.6 16.0 9.8 6.3
MIL 29 33.5 15.0 18.5 5.4 13.1

The above is sorted by Total WAA as calculated by this data model.  Hitters and Pitchers add to make Total, Starters and Relief add to make Pitchers.  Not much different from Part 6.  Milwaukee had a collapse of their top notch relief staff yesterday and still won because Dodgers had a collapse of their top notch starter.  Let’s look at handicap reports for the two games today.

DATE 10_13_4:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 > -125 $180
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME MIL [ 0.512 ] < 0.465 > +115 $215
STARTHOME 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.521 LAN 4.46 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.479 MIL 4.27 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 94 103
Home Field 83 116

Los Angeles favored slightly by Tier Combo simulations and a little more than slightly by the market.  Ryu is technically Tier 1, Miley Tier 2 and Dodgers have a Tier 1 lineup and Milwaukee brings a Tier 1 relief staff.   Since the market pretty much agrees with simulations there is no point in betting this game.

DATE 10_13_8:05_PM HOU BOS

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.476 ] < 0.488 > +105 $205
STARTAWAY 8.02(0.669) Justin_Verlander_HOU TIER 1
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LINEHOME BOS [ 0.545 ] < 0.535 > -115 $186
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.495 HOU 4.34 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.505 BOS 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE HOU BOS
Tier Combo 101 94
Home Field 94 100

Two top top of MLB pitchers starting tonight.  HOU has better relief, BOS has better lineup and TC simulations call this an even steven game.  BOS is favored by almost exactly at historical home field advantage which would make sense.  Both lines a discard.

That is all for today.  Handicap dumps will happen throughout the playoffs.  In the off season when the code gets finished we can reminisce handicapping playoffs from past seasons.  Since we’re from the future we know the outcomes.

2018 NLCS Handicapping Report

When the ALCS team rosters are published there will be a playoff horse race post for the last 4 teams left.  Today the Dodgers play the Brewers in Milwaukee so let’s do a handicapping report.

DATE 10_12_8:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.595 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTAWAY 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME MIL [ 0.422 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTHOME -0.23(0.494) Gio_Gonzalez_TOT TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.550 LAN 4.77 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.450 MIL 4.26 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 91 104
Home Field 76 124

Tier Combo simulations have the Dodgers at 0.550 probability and their line is at 0.600.  The Brewers probability of 0.450 is almost equal to the line break even probability of 0.435.  This makes Tier Combo EV for MIL only slightly above 100.  Both lines a discard.  Knowing nothing other than home field advantage, MIL would be favored at 0.540.   We have much more info however.  Kershaw is a top tier pitcher and Gonzalez is average.  Milwaukee has a top tier relief staff and Dodgers have a top tier lineup.  Here are valuations for the lineups tonight.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10122018
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
3.67 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF-RF 506
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
1.91 Yasmani_Grandal_LAN CR 518
-0.48 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PR 57
Total WAA=17.33 PA=4226 WinPct=0.579

Not as good as the lineups we saw in the Yankees/Boston ALDS but it’s much better than Milwaukee’s lineup below.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10122018
-1.32 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 620
8.44 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 651
2.27 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 447
6.26 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 566
-1.13 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-RF-3B-SS-LF 334
1.55 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 3B-DH 635
-0.99 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 337
-2.21 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 366
-0.88 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL PR 55
Total WAA=11.99 PA=4011 WinPct=0.557

Lots of high value and low value hitters making the sum around +12 WAA.  The Tier 1/2 border  is +15.36 right now so they’re a solid Tier 2.  Milwaukee’s only hope is that playoff Clayton Kershaw decides to pitch tonight instead of regular season Clayton Kershaw.

Tomorrow starts ALCS when we’ll have the remaining two playoff rosters.  Until then ….

Playoffs Handicapping Report 10/9/2018

DATE 10_09_8:05_PM BOS NYA

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.476 ] < 0.476 > +110 $210
STARTAWAY -0.73(0.483) Rick_Porcello_BOS TIER 3
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LINEHOME NYA [ 0.545 ] < 0.545 > -120 $183
STARTHOME 1.70(0.550) CC_Sabathia_NYA TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> NYA Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.482 BOS 4.73 runs
NYA Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.518 NYA 4.94 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS NYA
Tier Combo 101 95
Home Field 97 99

Two mediocre starters for each team.  Neither pitcher has pitched well in their post season career.  It might be useful to add that to these playoff reports.  TC simulations falls within the house spread so this game is a complete discard.  Bettors had irrational exuberance for NYA yesterday and today that is gone.  We’ll see what happens.