ALCS Game 3

ALCS Game 3 today.  Let’s look at the Handicapping for this game.

HOU NYA 10_15_4:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.600 0.563 X 4.00 4.00 3.28
NYA 44 0.417 0.437 X 4.00 -0.05 3.18

Main difference in this game is HOU with a maxed out 4.00 Starter and Yankkes have an average starter.  Yankees also have home field advantage which is more of a factor in post season.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00
Luis_Severino_NYA 0.84 0.815 12.0 -0.05

Neither starter has much post season experience to mention.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
-133- -2.08 Martin_Maldonado_HOU CR 374
Total 27.34 TIER=4.00

Martin Maldonado was on the Cubs for a couple weeks this year.

NYA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
XXXXX 1.51 Aaron_Hicks_NYA CF 255
Total 29.28 TIER=4.00

Both these lineups are simply incredible.  One of these lineups won’t be in the World Series this year.

NLCS Game 4 next..

NLCS Game 3

NLCS Game 3 tonight in Washington.  Let’s look at these two teams in more detail.

SLN WAS 10_14_7:38_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.455 0.455 100 -0.04 4.00 2.12
WAS 24 0.565 0.545 96 3.15 2.91 0.30

Vegas and TC Sim in agreement.  ELO has WAS at 55% as well.  L , S , and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.91

Flahertry is a maxed out Tier 4.00 pitcher.  Strasburg extremely good in regular season and playoff season.  Here is his post season record.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH  post season

Ranked #30 of all players, both Batters and Pitchers in post season history.  The above doesn’t include this season.  Babe Ruth is ranked #10 in this list, Mariano Rivera #1.  Flaherty doesn’t have a post season record.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 3.78 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 74.0
XXXXX 1.55 John_Brebbia_SLN 72.7
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 48.3
XXXXX 1.34 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 36.7
XXXXX 0.94 Tyler_Webb_SLN 55.0
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 48.7
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Miller_SLN 54.7
XXXXX -0.17 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 20.3
Total 9.95 TIER=2.12

Cardinals carrying 8 relievers as opposed to the 9 and 10 HOU and NYA had yesterday.  At Tier 2.12 this relief staff is one complete standard deviation above league average but below HOU and NYA.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX 0.65 Roenis_Elias_WAS 50.0
XXXXX -0.21 Javy_Guerra_WAS 67.7
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 5.23 TIER=0.30

This is the weakest relief staff of the 4 remaining teams.  It’s just barely above league average.  Daniel Hudson is good but he can’t pitch all innings in relief.  Washington has been using Corbin who is listed as a starter in relief.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
XXXXX -0.59 Jose_Martinez_SLN RF 373
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Jack_Flaherty_SLN none 0
Total 3.88 TIER=-0.04

This is an average lineup for regular season and below average among playoff teams.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX 0.00 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS none 0
Total 21.81 TIER=3.36

This lineup isn’t as good as what we saw yesterday from HOU and NYA but still very good; more than 1.5 standard deviations above league average.  Lineups face opposing teams pitching and not other lineups.

Starters

Cardinals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+007+ 8.04 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 196.3
+048+ 4.70 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 174.7
XXXXX 1.49 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 184.0
XXXXX 1.24 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 171.7
Total 15.47 0.596

Pitching is what won NL Central for the Cardinals.  For starters tiering is done on individual pitchers not an entire staff.  The 0.596 ratio is a calculated Win Percentage for this entire staff which provides context to the 15.47 WAA sum.  For more information on how this sausage is made click here.

Nationals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

At 0.625 Win% means the Nationals’ starting rotation is a little better than Cardinals but not by much.

That is all for now.  Upcoming games will be handicapped.  Maybe we’ll dive into historical playoff handicapping to provided context.  Until then ….

ALCS Game 2

ALCS Game 2 tonight at 7pc CST.  Let’s look at these two teams in detail and we’ll cover the NLCS teams in detail tomorrow.

NYA HOU 10_13_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.397 0.443 X 4.00 0.87 3.18
HOU 52 0.623 0.557 X 4.00 4.00 3.28

Vegas has Houston favored far higher than TC Sim.  ELO has HOU favored 57% so almost exactly what this model came up with.  The L , S , and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.87
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander much better pitcher in regular season.  Here’s his post season stats.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+033+ 2.50 189.0 3.00 29 4 Justin_Verlander_TOT PITCH

Ranked #33 best in post season history which means very consistent.  This may be why Vegas has HOU so high today.

NYA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+059+ 4.03 Adam_Ottavino_NYA 66.3
+073+ 3.72 Zack_Britton_NYA 61.3
+107+ 3.07 Aroldis_Chapman_NYA 57.0
XXXXX 1.20 Tommy_Kahnle_NYA 61.3
XXXXX 0.76 Luis_Cessa_NYA 81.0
XXXXX 0.55 Chad_Green_NYA 69.0
XXXXX -0.02 Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA 31.7
XXXXX -0.55 Tyler_Lyons_NYA 12.7
XXXXX -1.11 CC_Sabathia_NYA 107.3
XXXXX -1.51 J.A._Happ_NYA 161.3
Total 10.14 TIER=3.18

That’s 10 relievers.  Only top 8 are counted for simulation purposes.

HOU Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+056+ 4.14 Will_Harris_HOU 60.0
+121+ 2.75 Roberto_Osuna_HOU 65.0
+123+ 2.69 Ryan_Pressly_HOU 54.3
XXXXX 1.55 Joe_Smith_HOU 25.0
XXXXX 1.05 Hector_Rondon_HOU 60.7
XXXXX 0.69 Brad_Peacock_HOU 91.7
XXXXX 0.48 Jose_Urquidy_HOU 41.0
XXXXX 0 Bryan_Abreu 0
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_James_HOU 61.3
Total 12.99 TIER=3.28

Houston stocked up on relievers as well.  In a 7 game series having many relievers is probably necessary and in the Managing Baseball 101 set of rules for playoffs.

Don’t want to wait for current lineups to become available so here’s yesterday’s lineups which may be identical to what comes out later today.

NYA Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
XXXXX 0.36 Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA LF 72
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
Total 28.13 TIER=4.00

Every player but one ranked in top 200 which is incredible.  Yankees had similar playoff lineups last season.  Oh, and that Gleyber Torres.  I hear he’s only 22.

Update top of 4th:  Yankees up 2-1.  Just noticed the but in every player but is none other than former MVP  Giancarlo Stanton.  The plate appearance column is provided to show time.  With only 72 PAs Stanton hasn’t played much this season.  At 447 PAs Judge must have been out as well.   This is quite an amazing hitting squad NYA put together.  And did we mention Gleybar Torres is only 22 years old?

HOU Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 0.92 Kyle_Tucker_HOU LF-RF 72
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
Total 33.40 TIER=4.00

This is also a rock ’em sock ’em lineup.  Both lineups maxed out at Tier 4.00 which will probably continue throughout ALCS and WS for one of these teams.

That is all for now.  NLCS tomorrow.  Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 12

Now that we have all four playoff rosters here’s another edition of the playoff horse race series.  We’ll start with ELO, then this model, then WAR.elo10132019
I do not know how ELO is calculated.  Astros took a big hit however.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 71.2 31.5 26.7 13.0 14.4
WAS 24 51.0 24.9 20.9 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 45.3 31.6 3.5 10.1 11.4
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4

This data model still has HOU #1.  Valuation  for WAA and WAR tables are done using regular season results.  As always, the UR columns mean unearned runs above average, measured in runs.  All other columns are measured in wins.  It is interesting to note that all these teams have positive UR.  LAN and ATL had high negative UR and were bounced.  Not sure what this means right now but it’s something to look into in off season.  Currently UR is not incorporated in TC Sim.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 72.6 42.5 20.3 9.8 14.4
WAS 24 52.3 26.2 21.5 4.6 18.4
NYA 44 46.9 33.2 4.5 9.2 11.4
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

I’m pretty sure the above isn’t an error but not completely sure right now.   Total WAR is eerily close to Total WAA for each of these teams.  The two systems differ somewhat in the other categories.  Total is Hitters + Starters + Relief in each of these tables.  UR is shown for informational purposes only.

That is all for now.  ALDS Handicapping next.  Today will be a a rare two posts in a single day day.  Until then ….

ALCS NLCS Handicapping

Today we’ll just show handicapping for ALCS and NLCS.  Playoff rosters and horse race tables tomorrow.

WAS SLN 10_12_4:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.565 0.582 102 3.15 3.16 -0.17
SLN 20 0.455 0.418 92 -0.04 0.16 1.95

Washington more heavily favored by TC Sim than Vegas but both in the same ballpark pun intended.  L, S, and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.16
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Scherzer is a top tier pitcher, Wainwright is just average.

Update 8th inning:  Andrew Miller just came in to relieve Wainwright and got two outs.  Miller has playoff experience so I looked him up.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+053+ 2.12 38.0 1.18 0 26 Andrew_Miller_TOT PITCH

Ranked #53 of all MLB players who played in playoffs since 1903.  Not bad.  Need to incorporate this into TC Sim somehow.

NYA HOU 10_12_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.417 0.437 105 4.00 -0.41 2.96
HOU 52 0.600 0.563 93 4.00 3.71 3.46

Vegas and TC Sim pretty much in agreement.  Two maxed out Tier 4.00 lineups in this game.  HOU has much better starter and both relief squads very good — as one would expect from two teams competing for a pennant.

Note: Lineup values taken from each team’s last game because they won’t be released until later.  I do not expect either lineup to drop below Tier 4.00.  Tomorrow we’ll show these lineups in detail.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 0.25 0.506 182.0 -0.41
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.71

According to this season Greinke is a far better pitcher.  According to post season however …

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 2.69 50.0 1.26 8 1 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH

Tanaka is the superior pitcher by far.  TC Sim uses regular season stats and Vegas bettors probably don’t know about the above.  Dave Roberts certainly didn’t know how bad Kershaw was in playoff situations which is the reason Washington is playing in NLCS today.

That’s all.  NLCS already started, top of 2nd 0-0.  Playoff horse race and complete roster analysis for all four teams tomorrow.  Until then ….