This post is a little late and the Cubs are down 3-1. Cubs played the Reds a couple of weeks ago. Here are team statuses for the last time we did this and today.
BAT up a lot, PITCH up a little, and the Reds went 10-4 gaining +6 wins (WAA). Their UR tanked however going from around average to a miserable -7.5. Those runs count too. Let’s see how the above looks when we drill down into CIN. First, what say the markets for today.
DATE 07_06_2:20_PM CIN CHN
LINEAWAY CIN [ 0.417 ] < 0.400 > +150 $150
STARTAWAY 0.48(0.524) Tyler_Mahle_CIN TIER 3
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.615 ] < 0.623 > -165 $60
STARTHOME 0.97(0.566) Mike_Montgomery_CHN TIER 3
CIN 38 49 CHN 49 35
DELTAWAA 25 WINPCT 0.643 CHN
CIN Lineup 1 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.495 CIN 4.73 runs
CHN Lineup 1 ==> CIN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.505 CHN 4.77 runs
The markets show a break even probability of .400 for CIN down from the start at 0.417, Cubs are at 0.623 up from 0.615. Risking $100 on the Cubs nets you $60 if they win and $150 if you bet the Reds and they win.
Two Tier 3 average starters pitching today. Tier Combo simulations show this to be an even steven game. Based upon deltaWAA=25, the Cubs should have a 0.643 chance today. Now we have a conundrum. Which value is correct? DeltaWAA is based upon a seasonal record and Tier Combo is based upon the value of who is playing today.
Tier Combo gives CIN a 0.495 chance which is greater than 0.400 plus our 0.07 margin making them a betting opportunity today. Not so fast! Right now the deltaWAA figure provides upward pressure on the line. The current theory is to use deltaWAA to wave off a bet, never to make a bet.
The difference between deltaWAA for CHN and their Tier Combo result is around 0.14. Divide that by two and subtract that from the CIN 0.495 figure in Tier Combo and you get 0.425 which is not enough margin to bet. Thus, the CIN line is a discard. The CHN line was totally a discard from the beginning.
That’s a rough algorithm that’s still a work in progress and the probability math is still being worked out as well as simulating entire seasons of handicapping. Today is interesting because the Reds have a much better team than their win/loss record indicates which is why they swept the Cubs a couple of weeks ago. Cubs currently down 3-2 but hopefully they pull this off — except for the fact that CIN has the best relief staff in MLB. You might not know that reading sites like Fangraphs. Let’s look more into this Reds team.
CIN Tier Data
As mentioned earlier CIN Relief (RP) is Tier 1 and now they have a Tier 1 lineup which would align with what we saw in their current team status line. Their starting rotation is kind of terrible which will be their Achilles heel should they think about making a run for the playoffs. Matt Harvey moved up a tier since we last saw him. Let’s look at what is currently the best relief staff in MLB.
And finally here is the third best lineup in MLB today. Cubs are #1 today BTW.
Looks like the Cubs lost 3-2. Mahle is their best starter so maybe the Cubs can run up some runs in the first couple of innings tomorrow and hold out for a win. deltaWAA between CIN and CHN will drop to 23 now which means the Reds are 11.5 games behind the Cubs and there’s almost 1/2 of a season left.
Update 7/7 12pm : As always, past results do not affect future results, they only show capability. The Cubs could easily take Reds’ relief down a few notches today. No one can predict the future. The Cubs were -2 at ASG last season. The Reds are now -11. They have an uphill battle and for teams trying to eek into a WC spot the last two weeks of September is when playoff season starts for them. Hopefully the Cubs convince the Reds to be sellers these next few games. <end of update>
It will be interesting to see if CIN decides to fold and sell at the trade deadline or make a run for it. They’ll need to shore up that starting rotation if they choose the latter because you can’t totally rely on relief in the playoffs.
That’s all for today. If lines go haywire we’ll do another post about it. Until then ….