Tag Archives: alcs

ALCS Game 7

Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in. Tonight is game 7 ALCS and I didn’t want to comment on this anymore but there might be an interesting clue here about the betting markets;. Here is tonight’s game according to the market.

DATE 10_21 8:00_PM NYA HOU
LINEAWAY NYA [ 0.463 ] < 0.461 >
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA
LINEHOME HOU [ 0.558 ] < 0.559 >
STARTHOME 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU

The above is tonight’s game.  Two possibly Tier 2 or Tier 3 starting pitchers.  Both HOU and NYA have Tier 1 lineups so this is a 50/50 game with NYA having a relief advantage.    These same two starters pitched against each other 5 days ago in New York.  Here is what the markets said about that game on 10/16.

DATE 10_16 8:05_PM HOU NYA
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.465 ] < 0.450 >
STARTAWAY 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.556 ] < 0.569 >
STARTHOME 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA

Our analysis then is about the same  except HOU is now favored and by almost the same amount.  There is a concept of home field advantage and home field irrational exuberance.  It’s difficult to discern the two and for now a one game series like this, who knows.  Something to look into in the off season.

And finally, below is the playoff horse race table of the 10 MLB teams in the playoffs this year.  After tonight it will be … and then there are two.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
WAS 22.21 32.34 21.09 11.25 54.55 32
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
CLE 19.30 28.61 17.35 11.26 47.91 42
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 10.42 31.72 19.90 11.82 42.14 46
ARI 15.99 24.49 15.98 8.51 40.48 24
CHN 18.85 19.74 7.41 12.33 38.59 22
COL 19.80 7.53 -0.11 7.64 27.33 12
BOS 7.56 19.71 8.69 11.02 27.27 24
MIN 9.41 -4.08 -6.51 2.43 5.33 8

ALCS Game 3

I’m reaching the point of burn out with the Cubs down 0-2 in NLCS and there aren’t many betting opportunities in the playoffs.  Betting opportunities only occur when there is irrational exuberance based upon fans wanting their team to win thus pushing the line away from its true probability.  The Yankees have not been given respect in these playoffs.  They play tonight so let’s look at what the Ouija Board says.

DATE 10_16 8:05_PM HOU NYA
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.465 ] < 0.444 >
STARTAWAY 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.556 ] < 0.574 >
STARTHOME 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA
------------------------------------
HOU 101 61 NYA 91 71
DELTAWAA 20 WINPCT 0.619 HOU

Today both pitchers, same tier, and each starting lineup is Tier 1.  Below is the value chart again.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 12.18 33.80 19.90 13.90 45.98 46
CHN 18.85 20.93 7.41 13.52 39.78 22

Since the lineup-starter combo pairs are identical that makes this a 50/50 game or flip of a coin.  The Yankees have the best relief squad in MLB (if we listed all 30 teams).   Although slightly above average, HOU relief may be Tier 4.  This should push the line in the Yankees favor.

We won’t finish lineup-relief tables until off season.  Relief pitching typically represents 1/3 of each baseball game.   Normally relief squads aren’t that far apart.  The Dodgers and Cubs have similar valued relief squads.

There is one other wild card in this game, CC Sabathia, a pitcher who has been around for a very long time.  Here is his post season numbers.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-013- -2.50 107.3 4.53 18 4 CC_Sabathia_TOT PITCH

He’s ranked #13 in the bottom 200 of all players in the playoff season dating back to 1903.  He pitched well against Cleveland and NYA have the relievers to back him up.  Houston has a Tier 1 lineup and the above shows a Tier 5 pitcher in the playoffs.  If the Yankees lineup get into HOU relief the Astros will be in trouble.

If this is a even steven, flip of a coin game then HOU is under valued at 0.444 because our expected probability is 0.500 (for argument sake).  We typically want a margin between .07 to .10 to compensate for any errors and this wouldn’t quite cut it but it’s close.

That is all for now.  Until then….

Koji Uehara Career

Koji Uehara named MVP of the ALCS today. Here’s his career stats.

Koji Uehara

Year WAA BA/IP OBP/ERA PA/G RBI/W R/L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
1999 9.7 197.2 2.09 25 20 4 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2000 1.1 131.0 3.57 20 9 7 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2001 -0.8 138.2 4.02 24 10 7 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2002 4.7 204.0 2.60 26 17 5 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2003 4.9 207.1 3.17 27 16 5 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2004 7.1 163.0 2.60 22 13 5 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2005 3.6 187.1 3.31 27 9 12 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2006 2.0 168.1 3.21 24 8 9 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2007 3.1 62.0 1.74 55 4 3 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2008 -0.2 89.2 3.81 26 6 5 Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl PITCH
2009 0.5 66.7 4.05 12 2 4 Koji_Uehara_BAL PITCH
2010 1.3 44.0 2.86 43 1 2 Koji_Uehara_BAL PITCH
2011 2.6 47.0 1.72 43 1 1 Koji_Uehara_BAL PITCH
2011 -0.0 18.0 4.00 22 1 2 Koji_Uehara_TEX PITCH
2011 2.5 65.0 2.35 65 2 3 Koji_Uehara_TOT PITCH
2012 2.0 36.0 1.75 37 0 0 Koji_Uehara_TEX PITCH
2013 5.0 74.3 1.09 73 4 1 Koji_Uehara_BOS PITCH

Shane Victorino Career

These are the career numbers for Shane Victorino seen through the lens of WAA.

Year WAA BA/IP OBP/ERA PA/G RBI/W R/L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2003 -0.9 0.151 0.232 83 4 8 Shane_Victorino_SDN BAT
2005 0.9 0.294 0.263 19 8 5 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2006 0.8 0.287 0.346 462 46 70 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2007 0.6 0.281 0.347 510 46 78 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2008 1.4 0.293 0.352 627 58 102 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2009 0.5 0.292 0.358 694 62 102 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2010 1.1 0.259 0.327 648 69 84 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2011 3.3 0.279 0.355 586 61 95 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2012 -2.4 0.255 0.321 666 55 72 Shane_Victorino_TOT BAT
2012 -1.0 0.261 0.324 431 40 46 Shane_Victorino_PHI BAT
2012 -1.3 0.245 0.316 235 15 26 Shane_Victorino_LAN BAT
2013 3.7 0.294 0.351 532 61 82 Shane_Victorino_BOS BAT

Career WAA Value = 9.2

Top Ten Detroit Tigers 2013

Rank WAA BA/IP OBP/ERA PA/G RBI/W R/L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2 11.6 0.348 0.442 652 137 103 Miguel_Cabrera_DET BAT
20 5.7 182.0 2.57 29 14 8 Anibal_Sanchez_DET PITCH
32 5.0 214.3 2.90 32 21 3 Max_Scherzer_DET PITCH
40 4.5 0.279 0.362 712 106 82 Prince_Fielder_DET BAT
45 4.4 0.304 0.334 652 84 90 Torii_Hunter_DET BAT
98 3.0 67.0 2.01 66 4 1 Joaquin_Benoit_DET PITCH
113 2.8 76.0 2.37 63 6 0 Drew_Smyly_DET PITCH
141 2.4 0.272 0.337 614 49 99 Austin_Jackson_DET BAT
172 2.0 218.3 3.46 34 13 12 Justin_Verlander_DET PITCH
193 1.8 0.244 0.351 191 30 26 Matt_Tuiasosopo_DET BAT