Tag Archives: alds playoffs

ALDS Game 5

Update Post Game:  Astros won this game and play the Yankees in ALCS.  A data flow error has been discovered in Lineup tier calculations for all playoff games this year.  HOU below has a maxed out tier 4.00 lineup at +27 tonight and Ray’s lineup was around -0.5 tier number, not -1.59 shown in below table.

As games completed standard deviations were calculated using past playoff lineups when they should have been using the end of September regular season set of lineups.  The error got worse as more playoff games polluted the  lineup dataset, by raising league averages significantly.  This depressed both home and away L tier numbers.  The resultant simulation % estimation  didn’t change much in the below game however.  League championship  tier numbers will be calculated the way they should.

When this season is  in the books, when retrosheet.org releases event data, all this gets recalculated anyway for the historical dataset.  Right now we’re working off current year data which uses a different set of scripts to keep track of everything.

End of update

ALDS Game 5 tonight.  Washington beat Dodgers last night which makes NLCS interesting.

TBA HOU 10_10_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.294 0.340 X -1.59 1.61 1.72
HOU 52 0.737 0.660 X 2.75 4.00 3.46

Vegas has Houston almost 3-1 favorites, TC Sim almost 2-1.  Lineujp value taken from last game.  HOU usually fields a max 4.00 lineup so that and home field advantage should push things up for them with TC Sim.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 3.74 0.777 60.7 1.61
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00

This model has Cole ranked #2 behind Verlander.  WAR has him ranked #10.  Glasnow has a very high Win Percentage based on only 60 innings pitched.  Tiering is done on raw WAA not rates like Win Percentage.

That’s all for now.  Next up some historical playoff numbers to put these two series into perspective.  Until then ….

ALDS Game 4

ALDS game 4 in a few minutes. Let’s look at what this data model thinks.

HOU TBA 10_08_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.706 0.667 94 2.91 4.00 3.46
TBA 30 0.323 0.333 103 -1.40 0.38 1.72

TC Sim has HOU at exactly 2-1 or 2/3 which is exactly where ELO has them tonight as well.  After perusing ELO it appears Nate might be predicting this post season better so far but it’s still early.  We’re also working on leads into how to refine this model for the playoffs and regular season.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00
Diego_Castillo_TBA 1.62 0.606 68.7 0.38

Verlander, the #1 player in MLB, both BAT and PITCH, pitches on short rest.  The only thing TBA has going for them is playing at home and how that affects L, S, and R  for playoffs is still a work in progress.  More on this later when we do post mortem.

Tomorrow there are two NLDS game 5s to cover.  Until then ….

NLDS Matchups

Here are the NLDS Matchups for today.  Not much commenting because I had to wait for lineups and watched the Bears game.

Braves vs. Cardinals

Atlanta beat the Cardinals 3-1 today.  Below are last two week stretches for both teams.

ATL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ATL 93 57 85.4 36.7 -10.9 20190915
ATL 97 64 71.8 49.0 -8.8 20190930

SLN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 83 65 -33.6 113.8 11.1 20190915
SLN 90 71 -31.2 106.1 6.2 20190930

ATL SLN 10_06_4:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.545 0.604 X 1.60 3.71 2.42
SLN 20 0.476 0.396 X -0.78 0.16 1.95

EVs will not be displayed because there are other aspects of playoffs that need to be modeled.  The L , S and R columns represent Lineups, Starter, and Relief strengths.  Atlanta has Cardinals beat in every category.  That doesn’t mean Atlanta is guaranteed to win however, just that they have a greater than 50/50 chance.  TC Sim calculates that probability and has them favored more than Vegas today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Mike_Soroka_ATL 7.35 0.689 174.7 3.71
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Soroka is a better pitcher than Wainwriight this season.  Even WAR agrees.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+097+ 3.25 Shane_Greene_ATL 62.7
+176+ 2.10 Sean_Newcomb_ATL 68.3
+196+ 1.81 Max_Fried_ATL 165.7
XXXXX 1.36 Josh_Tomlin_ATL 79.3
XXXXX 1.32 Mark_Melancon_ATL 67.3
XXXXX 1.09 Luke_Jackson_ATL 72.7
XXXXX 0.34 Darren_O’Day_ATL 5.3
Total 11.27 TIER=2.42

Top notch relief staff.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 3.78 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 74.0
XXXXX 1.55 John_Brebbia_SLN 72.7
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 48.3
XXXXX 1.34 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 36.7
XXXXX 0.94 Tyler_Webb_SLN 55.0
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 48.7
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Miller_SLN 54.7
XXXXX -0.17 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 20.3
Total 9.95 TIER=1.95

At almost Tier 2 means SLN has a relief staff around one standard deviation above league average.

ATL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+030+ 5.69 Ronald_Acuna_ATL CF-LF-RF 715
+192+ 1.83 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 702
+013+ 6.91 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 692
+102+ 3.13 Josh_Donaldson_ATL 3B 659
XXXXX 0.94 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 469
XXXXX -0.29 Matt_Joyce_ATL RF 238
XXXXX -0.40 Brian_McCann_ATL CR 316
XXXXX 1.01 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 545
XXXXX 0.00 Mike_Soroka_ATL none 0
Total 18.82 TIER=1.60

This isn’t a +30 lineup like 3 ALDS teams put up yesterday but it’s decent.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
-158- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 492
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Adam_Wainwright_SLN none 0
Total 2.66 TIER=-0.78

SLN has a below average lineup which reflects their below average BAT in team status above.

Dodgers vs. Nationals

Dodgers are beating Nationals 8-4 right now.  Last two weeks team statuses below for each team.

LAN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 96 54 97.5 156.6 -15.9 20190915
LAN 105 56 102.8 174.1 -12.8 20190930

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 81 66 56.0 31.7 17.1 20190915
WAS 92 69 78.8 42.0 18.2 20190930

LAN WAS 10_06_7:45_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.615 0.619 X 2.15 4.00 3.06
WAS 24 0.408 0.381 X 1.65 0.96 -0.17

Vegas and TC Sim almost completely in agreement.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN 9.30 0.729 182.7 4.00
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 0.96

Patrick Corbin comes in relief to Sanchez in this game because we’re from the future.  Corbin’s ranking shown below in Starters section.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+070+ 3.74 Julio_Urias_LAN 79.7
+161+ 2.27 Pedro_Baez_LAN 69.7
+170+ 2.16 Ross_Stripling_LAN 90.7
XXXXX 1.64 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 153.7
XXXXX 1.47 Adam_Kolarek_LAN 55.0
XXXXX 1.16 Kenley_Jansen_LAN 63.0
XXXXX 0.69 Dustin_May_LAN 34.7
XXXXX -0.08 Joe_Kelly_LAN 51.3
Total 13.05 TIER=3.06

This is a top shelf MLB relief staff.  WAR has this staff bottom of 8 MLB contenders.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX -0.04 Wander_Suero_WAS 71.3
XXXXX -0.59 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 24.3
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 4.16 TIER=-0.17

This is a league average relief staff and a weakness for the Nationals.

LAN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+090+ 3.34 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-RF-1B 514
+029+ 5.82 Max_Muncy_LAN 2B-1B-3B 589
XXXXX 1.39 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 549
+008+ 7.85 Cody_Bellinger_LAN RF-1B-CF 661
+064+ 3.91 Corey_Seager_LAN SS 541
XXXXX 1.32 A.J._Pollock_LAN CF-LF 342
XXXXX 0.10 Gavin_Lux_LAN 2B 82
XXXXX -1.22 Russell_Martin_LAN CR 249
XXXXX 0.00 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN none 0
Total 22.51 TIER=2.15

Around one standard deviation above average lineup.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX -1.45 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 482
XXXXX -1.13 Michael_A._Taylor_WAS CF 97
XXXXX 0.00 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS none 0
Total 19.15 TIER=1.65

A slightly less lineup than Dodgers.

Starters

Below is a dump of starters for the four NLDS teams according to our source that publishes roster data.

Braves

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 7.35 Mike_Soroka_ATL 174.7
+122+ 2.73 Julio_Teheran_ATL 174.7
+187+ 1.93 Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 112.7
XXXXX -0.15 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 117.0
Total 11.86 0.592

Cardinals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+007+ 8.04 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 196.3
+048+ 4.70 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 174.7
XXXXX 1.49 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 184.0
XXXXX 1.24 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 171.7
Total 15.47 0.596

Dodgers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 9.30 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 182.7
+025+ 6.11 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 178.3
+036+ 5.27 Walker_Buehler_LAN 182.3
+120+ 2.79 Rich_Hill_LAN 58.7
Total 23.47 0.675

This is an extremely good rotation which one would expect based on their PITCH in team status.

Nationals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

Another very good rotation.  Patrick Corbin just got tagged for 6 runs in relief to Sanchez.

That’s all for now.  A script generates these posts and I write summary blurbs.  Had to wait for lineups and didn’t get to this until late in LAN/WAS game.  We’ll just handicap the 4 games tomorrow now that rosters have been covered.  Until then ….

ALDS Matchups

This post will cover detail breakdowns of the 4 teams in ALDS since only AL teams are playing today.  Tomorrow we’ll do the same for NLDS.

MIN vs. NYA

Minnesota is down 1-0 in the only ALDS series featuring two actual winners of their divisions.

MIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIN 91 57 136.5 47.6 -11.9 20190915
MIN 101 61 156.9 45.8 -14.6 20191005

MIN went from +34 to +40 in last two weeks of regular season gaining 6 games which was mostly due to hitting according to BAT .  Their UR is near worst in MLB.

NYA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYA 98 52 157.4 16.7 12.1 20190915
NYA 103 59 157.9 31.8 11.4 20191005

Yankees went from +46 to +44 losing two games.  BAT stayed the same which is slightly ahead of second place MIN in that category out of all 30 MLB teams.

MIN NYA 10_05_5:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIN 40 0.377 0.495 X 3.72 0.54 3.26
NYA 44 0.643 0.505 X 3.43 -0.41 3.01

These numbers are based on regular season.  Playoff factors have not been incorporated into simulation yet.  On paper MIN and NYA are very similar in every aspect.  Above shows Lineup , Starter , and Relief all around equivalent for each team.  Both lineups above Tier 3.00 which are top shelf MLB lineups.

Minnesota’s relief choked last night and they gave up 2 unearned runs which adds to their already terrible UR.  This model has this game even steven because on paper these two teams are even steven.  Vegas has NYA heavily favored giving MIN bettors $170 on every $100 bet.  This pushes EV into MIN territory.

Home field advantage as well as other factors that do not mean much in regular season can be significant in post season.  Great HOF pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and even Greg Maddux, have trouble pitching in post season.

The Yankees won 5/7 against MIN in regular season.  MIN won one of their two wins in New York.  Does that matter?  How do you model that?   This simulation is still a work in progress.  It needs to beat Vegas by more than 10% to be viable.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Randy_Dobnak_MIN 1.89 0.801 28.3 0.54
Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 0.25 0.506 182.0 -0.41

Two relatively mediocre pitchers.  Randy Dobnak is listed as a reliever below.  Where this model gets current rosters could have errors.  Or maybe Minnesota is pulling a Tampa Bay trick by using an opener for the first inning.

MIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+110+ 2.96 Taylor_Rogers_MIN 69.0
+127+ 2.62 Tyler_Duffey_MIN 57.7
+162+ 2.27 Trevor_May_MIN 64.3
+189+ 1.89 Randy_Dobnak_MIN 28.3
XXXXX 1.53 Zack_Littell_MIN 37.0
XXXXX 1.49 Sergio_Romo_MIN 60.3
XXXXX 0.69 Cody_Stashak_MIN 25.0
XXXXX -0.04 Brusdar_Graterol_MIN 9.7
Total 13.41 TIER=3.26

That’s a solid staff with value spread evenly among top 6.

NYA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+059+ 4.03 Adam_Ottavino_NYA 66.3
+073+ 3.72 Zack_Britton_NYA 61.3
+107+ 3.07 Aroldis_Chapman_NYA 57.0
XXXXX 1.20 Tommy_Kahnle_NYA 61.3
XXXXX 0.76 Luis_Cessa_NYA 81.0
XXXXX 0.55 Chad_Green_NYA 69.0
XXXXX -0.02 Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA 31.7
XXXXX -0.55 Tyler_Lyons_NYA 12.7
XXXXX -1.51 J.A._Happ_NYA 161.3
Total 11.25 TIER=3.01

Yankees have two relievers top 100 which can be a significant advantage over Minnesota’s spread out relief staff in a 5 game series.

MIN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+033+ 5.35 Mitch_Garver_MIN CR 359
+193+ 1.83 Jorge_Polanco_MIN SS-DH 704
+014+ 6.74 Nelson_Cruz_MIN DH 521
+024+ 6.15 Eddie_Rosario_MIN LF-RF 590
+038+ 5.23 Miguel_Sano_MIN 3B 439
+046+ 4.75 Max_Kepler_MIN RF-CF 596
XXXXX -0.42 Marwin_Gonzalez_MIN RF-3B-1B-LF 463
XXXXX 0.99 C.J._Cron_MIN 1B 499
XXXXX -0.59 Luis_Arraez_MIN 2B-LF-3B 366
Total 30.03 TIER=3.72

This is a rock em sock em lineup.  Looks like that Nelson Cruz free agent signing worked out well.

NYA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
XXXXX 0.36 Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA LF 72
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
Total 28.13 TIER=3.43

… and so is this.  One should expect these two teams would have the highest valued lineups based on both are leading two teams with BAT in MLB.

TBA vs. HOU

TBA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
TBA 89 61 -8.5 112.7 2.1 20190915
TBA 96 66 -16.1 120.8 1.4 20191005

Went from +28 to +30 last two weeks in September.

HOU Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
HOU 97 53 131.4 103.6 12.1 20190915
HOU 107 55 139.9 127.8 14.4 20191005

Went from +44 to +52 gaining 8 games becoming the best team in baseball based upon the only stat that matters; wins minus losses.

TBA HOU 10_05_9:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.278 0.326 X -0.62 -0.37 1.76
HOU 52 0.762 0.674 X 3.80 4.00 3.52

HOU is favored 3-1 which is a very big payout for TBA bettors if they win.  As Vegas expected probability approaches 1 , Expected value approaches infinity.  This will be discussed in more detail in the off season.  TC Sim has HOU heavily favored as well but not by as much.  Houston leads in all categories; WAA, Lineup , Starter, and Relief.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Blake_Snell_TBA 0.32 0.513 107.0 -0.37
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00

Gerrit Cole is the #2 best player in MLB this season.  He’s at a maxed out tier of 4.00.

TBA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+083+ 3.42 Emilio_Pagan_TBA 70.0
XXXXX 1.76 Yonny_Chirinos_TBA 133.3
+198+ 1.74 Nick_Anderson_TBA 65.0
XXXXX 1.62 Diego_Castillo_TBA 68.7
XXXXX 1.57 Oliver_Drake_TBA 56.0
XXXXX 0.42 Chaz_Roe_TBA 51.0
XXXXX -0.36 Colin_Poche_TBA 51.7
XXXXX -0.84 Brendan_McKay_TBA 49.0
Total 9.33 TIER=1.76

Decent relief staff, almost 1 complete standard deviation above league average.

HOU Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+056+ 4.14 Will_Harris_HOU 60.0
+121+ 2.75 Roberto_Osuna_HOU 65.0
+123+ 2.69 Ryan_Pressly_HOU 54.3
+195+ 1.83 Wade_Miley_HOU 167.3
XXXXX 1.55 Joe_Smith_HOU 25.0
XXXXX 1.05 Hector_Rondon_HOU 60.7
XXXXX 0.48 Jose_Urquidy_HOU 41.0
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_James_HOU 61.3
Total 14.13 TIER=3.52

This staff is much better, almost 2 complete standard deviations above league average.

TBA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+111+ 2.94 Austin_Meadows_TBA RF-DH-LF 591
XXXXX -1.51 Tommy_Pham_TBA LF-DH 654
XXXXX -0.17 Ji-Man_Choi_TBA 1B-DH 487
XXXXX 0.67 Yandy_Diaz_TBA 3B-1B-DH 347
XXXXX 1.41 Brandon_Lowe_TBA 2B 327
+130+ 2.71 Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA CR-1B 391
XXXXX -1.36 Joey_Wendle_TBA 2B-3B-SS 263
XXXXX -0.21 Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA CF 480
-114- -2.23 Willy_Adames_TBA SS 584
Total 2.25 TIER=-0.62

This is a below league average lineup.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=3.80

This is a rock em sock em lineup on par with both NYA and MIN.

ALDS Starters

MIN

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+077+ 3.55 Jose_Berrios_MIN 200.3
+080+ 3.46 Jake_Odorizzi_MIN 159.0
XXXXX 0.67 Devin_Smeltzer_MIN 49.0
XXXXX -1.47 Kyle_Gibson_MIN 160.0
Total 6.21 0.549

NYA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+149+ 2.42 James_Paxton_NYA 150.7
XXXXX 0.84 Luis_Severino_NYA 12.0
XXXXX 0.25 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 182.0
Total 3.51 0.546

TBA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+021+ 6.19 Charlie_Morton_TBA 194.7
+071+ 3.74 Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 60.7
XXXXX 0.94 Ryan_Yarbrough_TBA 141.7
XXXXX 0.32 Blake_Snell_TBA 107.0
Total 11.19 0.600

HOU

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+001+ 9.70 Justin_Verlander_HOU 223.0
+002+ 9.64 Gerrit_Cole_HOU 212.3
+009+ 7.35 Zack_Greinke_HOU 208.7
Total 26.69 0.686

Houston has three pitchers in the top 10 along with a +30 lineup.  They will be tough for anyone to beat.

Not much more to say about this.  NLDS teams tomorrow.  Until then ….

ALDS Snapshot 10/6/2018

The roster problem may have been fixed.   Expanded rosters caused havoc with team relief value.  During September only the top 7 relievers were counted but that had a side effect of raising the per team relief value which also isn’t correct when using as comparison with 25 man playoff rosters.

Right now all these tier combo simulations use historical regular season data as reference which also might not be proper.  But it is what it is for now.   Lineups and starters weren’t affected by expanded rosters.  Current relief for playoff teams depends upon a proper set of MLB data.  Expanded rosters are distorted so it was decided the last August roster would be used to determine relief value for each non playoff teams.  Playoff rosters are used for the 10 official playoff teams.

Reliever’s end of year data was used to tabulate non playoff team relief value so we get a more apples to apples distribution.  Since the data seems fixed let’s take a look at the Ouija Board for the two ALDS games going on right now and tonight.

Ouija Board

DATE 10_06_4:35_PM CLE HOU

LINEAWAY CLE [ 0.426 ] < 0.455 > +120 $220
STARTAWAY 3.34(0.578) Carlos_Carrasco_CLE TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME HOU [ 0.592 ] < 0.565 > -130 $176
STARTHOME 5.86(0.632) Gerrit_Cole_HOU TIER 1

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 24 WINPCT 0.631 HOU
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CLE Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.481 CLE 4.32 runs
HOU Lineup 2 ==> CLE Starter 2 / Relief 5 == 0.519 HOU 4.53 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CLE 106 81
HOU 91 111

Cleveland has a better lineup which we’ll see below but HOU has a starter advantage — but not much.  Cleveland has a bottom tier, Tier 5, relief staff.  I had to double check that to because Cleveland usually has good relief.  According to TC simulations HOU has a slight edge overall and they get more of an edge with home field advantage, something that’s still a work in progress as we talk through these games.  Both lines well under 120 EV which means they fall within margin of the betting market.

DATE 10_06_8:15_PM NYA BOS

LINEAWAY NYA [ 0.476 ] < 0.524 > -110 $190
STARTAWAY 1.36(0.539) Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.545 ] < 0.524 > -110 $190
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 2

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 BOS
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
NYA Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.510 NYA 4.79 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> NYA Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.490 BOS 4.67 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
NYA    97 73
BOS    93 117

Both TC simulations and the market think this is an even steven game which is why TC Expected Value is less than $100 on a $100 bet for each line.  These two teams have superb lineups which we’ll see below.  Yankees have a better relief squad.  Starters almost equal.

CLE Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
5.73 Francisco_Lindor_CLE SS 745
2.52 Michael_Brantley_CLE LF 631
6.19 Jose_Ramirez_CLE 3B-2B 698
5.42 Edwin_Encarnacion_CLE DH-1B 579
0.29 Josh_Donaldson_CLE 3B-DH 219
1.97 Yonder_Alonso_CLE 1B 574
0.50 Melky_Cabrera_CLE RF 278
0.29 Yan_Gomes_CLE CR 435
0.59 Jason_Kipnis_CLE 2B-CF 601
Total WAA=23.52 PA=4760 WinPct=0.595

HOU Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
3.25 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 620
0.82 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 599
4.89 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 705
2.50 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B-2B 573
0.27 Marwin_Gonzalez_HOU LF-SS-2B-1B 552
1.87 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 468
1.55 Tyler_White_HOU 1B-DH 237
-0.17 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 487
-1.05 Martin_Maldonado_HOU CR 404
Total WAA=13.94 PA=4645 WinPct=0.558

Cleveland has a much better lineup going into today’s game which they lost 3-1.

NYA Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
-0.88 Andrew_McCutchen_NYA RF-LF 682
3.38 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 498
3.13 Luke_Voit_NYA 1B 161
4.60 Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA DH-RF-LF 705
2.10 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 374
4.96 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 569
4.09 Miguel_Andujar_NYA 3B-DH 606
2.35 Gleyber_Torres_NYA 2B-SS 484
0.34 Brett_Gardner_NYA LF-CF 609
Total WAA=24.07 PA=4688 WinPct=0.599

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
2.35 Mitch_Moreland_BOS 1B 459
-1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH 502
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
-1.30 Sandy_Leon_BOS CR 288
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
Total WAA=27.36 PA=4822 WinPct=0.609

This is one of the best two lineups in a single game all year or for many years.  Boston has home field advantage but the market doesn’t care about that at all tonight.  That game starts in a few minutes.

That is all for now.  Until then ….