Tag Archives: hof

Hall of Fame Part 3

In this part we’ll cover the other 3 MLB hall of fame inductees from the latest vote which can be seen here.   Below is a bunch of career tables showing year by year valuations for both WAR and WAA value systems.  According to this data model all 3 deserve HOF induction with the weakest being Edgar Martinez who squeaked in on his last year of eligibility.

This data model abhors tables of numbers but there is no other way to present these long careers.  Comments will be interspersed among the tables.  Order is their appearance on the HOF voting ballot according to this baseball-reference web site.

Edgar Martinez WAA

Edgar Martinez is ranked #214 of all post 1900 MLB players according to this data model which just barely gets him in.  The threshold should be somewhere between 200 and 250.  Ranking score for this data model is 1120.  WAR has him ranked much higher with a ranking score of 1974.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1987 XXXXX -0.02 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1988 XXXXX -0.34 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1989 XXXXX -0.15 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1990 XXXXX -0.32 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1991 XXXXX 1.13 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1992 +034+ 5.17 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1993 XXXXX -0.53 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH-3B
1994 XXXXX 0.10 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1995 +005+ 8.53 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1996 +024+ 7.33 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1997 +041+ 5.50 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1998 +117+ 2.88 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1999 +180+ 1.83 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2000 +013+ 8.13 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2001 +030+ 6.36 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2002 XXXXX 0.82 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2003 +129+ 2.77 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2004 -093- -2.44 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
Total 46.75  1120

Edgar Martinez WAR

Below is an extended WAR table available for hitters in WAR.  WAR has an offensive component oWAR and a defensive component dWAR.  The two cannot be added together to make WAR because WAR does not have additive properties.

Normally this model adheres to a Keep It Simple Policy (KISS) meaning fewer entries in a table the better.  The total (or whatever) WAR is used for sorting and ranking both pitchers and batters together, like what is done for this data model throughout.

Year Rank WAR oWAR dWAR PA Name_Tm Pos
1987 XXXXX 0.2 0.4 -0.2 46 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1988 XXXXX -0.1 0.1 -0.2 38 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1989 XXXXX 0.5 0.0 0.6 196 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1990 +022+ 5.5 4.2 1.5 572 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1991 +017+ 6.1 5.5 0.8 642 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B
1992 +011+ 6.6 7.1 -0.7 592 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1993 XXXXX 0.2 0.5 -0.4 165 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH-3B
1994 +079+ 3.0 2.4 0.5 387 Edgar_Martinez_SEA 3B-DH
1995 +006+ 7.0 7.2 -1.4 639 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1996 +021+ 6.4 6.4 -1.1 634 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1997 +020+ 6.2 6.1 -1.3 678 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1998 +044+ 5.6 5.6 -1.4 672 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
1999 +046+ 4.9 4.8 -1.1 608 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2000 +029+ 5.6 5.6 -1.2 665 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2001 +051+ 4.8 4.8 -1.1 581 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2002 +163+ 2.6 2.6 -0.8 407 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2003 +117+ 3.3 3.3 -1.2 603 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
2004 XXXXX -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 549 Edgar_Martinez_SEA DH
Total 68.1 1974

WAR has a ranking score of 1974, significantly higher than this data model’s 1120.   We know from his poor dWAR numbers this is totally due to offense which makes him a good direct comparison between the two models.  This model shows why it took him 10 years to get in.  He should have gotten in much sooner according to WAR.

WAR tends to over value hitters based upon anecdotal observation.  We know the sum of WAR hitters consists of 60% of the league total of 1000 year after year.  This might be due to overvaluing oWAR.   Perhaps we’ll explore this further … perhaps not.  It doesn’t really matter.

Roy Halladay WAA

This data model has Roy Halladay ranked #125 out of all post 1900 MLB players so he clearly qualifies for HOF and he gets in on first ballot with 85% of the vote.  He had very bad years in 2000 and 2013 but made all that negative value back and more with many superb top ten years.

WAR and WAA are almost in complete agreement according to ranking scores highlighted in brown.  Both systems pegged him #1 in the bottom 200 in 2000.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1998 XXXXX 0.80 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
1999 +129+ 2.77 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2000 -001- -9.24 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2001 +111+ 2.94 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2002 +014+ 7.58 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2003 +015+ 7.33 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2004 XXXXX 1.09 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2005 +024+ 6.15 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2006 +017+ 7.08 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2007 +061+ 3.97 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2008 +006+ 8.84 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2009 +008+ 8.42 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2010 +003+ 9.37 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2011 +006+ 8.32 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2012 -128- -1.81 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2013 -027- -4.20 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
Total 59.41  1362

Roy Halladay WAR

Year Rank WAR IP Name_Tm Pos
1998 XXXXX 0.4 14.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
1999 +160+ 2.6 149.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2000 -001- -2.8 67.2 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2001 +125+ 3.0 105.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2002 +005+ 7.4 239.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2003 +004+ 8.1 266.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2004 +179+ 2.4 133.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2005 +025+ 5.5 141.2 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2006 +029+ 5.2 220.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2007 +098+ 3.5 225.1 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2008 +019+ 6.2 246.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2009 +011+ 6.9 239.0 Roy_Halladay_TOR PITCH
2010 +002+ 8.3 250.2 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2011 +001+ 8.9 233.2 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2012 XXXXX 0.9 156.1 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
2013 -065- -0.9 62.0 Roy_Halladay_PHI PITCH
Total 65.6  1408

Mike Mussina WAA

Mike Mussina gets voted in after 6 years with 76% vote.  This data model has him ranked #123, almost exactly tied with Roy Halladay above.   WAR has his career valued much higher than all current HOF inductees based upon ranking score.

Even though Mussina and Halladay are virtually tied in career WAA,  Mussina has a much higher ranking score.   Career WAA is the only factor used for ranking purposes, both seasonal and year to year.  Ranking scores are only computed to compare how WAA values a player with WAR.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1991 +134+ 2.10 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1992 +012+ 6.66 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1993 XXXXX -0.99 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1994 +008+ 6.38 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1995 +019+ 6.38 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1996 XXXXX -1.49 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1997 +030+ 5.96 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1998 +065+ 4.79 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1999 +037+ 5.84 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2000 +037+ 5.61 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2001 +026+ 6.64 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2002 XXXXX 1.03 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2003 +055+ 4.77 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2004 XXXXX -0.44 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2005 XXXXX -0.36 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2006 +051+ 4.64 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2007 -099- -2.44 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2008 +049+ 4.51 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
Total 59.59 1776

Mike Mussina WAR

Year Rank WAR IP Name_Tm Pos
1991 XXXXX 2.2 87.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1992 +004+ 8.2 241.0 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1993 XXXXX 1.5 167.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1994 +012+ 5.4 176.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1995 +014+ 6.1 221.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1996 +086+ 3.6 243.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1997 +027+ 5.5 224.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1998 +055+ 5.0 206.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
1999 +065+ 4.4 203.1 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2000 +026+ 5.6 237.2 Mike_Mussina_BAL PITCH
2001 +013+ 7.1 228.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2002 +056+ 4.5 215.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2003 +013+ 6.6 214.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2004 +177+ 2.4 164.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2005 +110+ 3.4 179.2 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2006 +035+ 5.0 197.1 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2007 XXXXX 1.0 152.0 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
2008 +038+ 5.2 200.1 Mike_Mussina_NYA PITCH
Total 82.7  2269

Next season Clemens and Bonds will probably get in breaking the no PEDs seal.  We’ll run through a couple of interesting careers who didn’t make the 75% in the next, and possibly final, part to this series.  Until then ….

Hall of Fame Part 2

It appears the HOF voting table referenced in Part 1 had percentages from last season.  They just held a vote and Mariano Rivera got unanimous vote.  According to this data model the career of Mariano Rivera is slightly below Curt Schilling ( tables at the end).   He is ranked #95 in MLB history which should clearly put him into HOF but HOF voters are a fickle bunch.  They never agree on anything.  How could Rivera get unanimous first ballot?

Simple.  Mariano Rivera is by far the most valuable player in post season history according to this data model and anyone who looks at his play off stats.

Top 10 Players in Playoff Season

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+001+ 9.30 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
+002+ 6.17 Christy_Mathewson_SFN PITCH
+003+ 5.46 Bernie_Williams_NYA RF-DH-CF
+004+ 4.89 Manny_Ramirez_TOT LF
+005+ 4.62 Albert_Pujols_TOT 1B-DH
+006+ 4.37 John_Smoltz_TOT PITCH
+007+ 4.18 David_Ortiz_TOT DH
+008+ 4.05 Curt_Schilling_TOT PITCH
+009+ 4.01 Carlos_Beltran_TOT DH
+010+ 3.78 Babe_Ruth_TOT OF-RF-LF

All playoff games are treated as a single season.  A usual modern season will have around 1500 unique players.  From 1903 to present there have been more than 7800 unique players or around 5x a standard season.

Correction 2/22/2019:  From 1903 – present there are only around 4000 unique players or around 3x a regular season.  I messed up the DB search.

Bernie Williams in the above list had 545 playoff season plate appearances which is almost a full regular season of playing time.   Babe Ruth, on the other hand, had only 167 playoff season plate appearances yet he still ranks #10.  He ranks #67 as a pitcher and if you add the two together, which you can,  Ruth would be ranked #5.  He’s the only player in MLB history with both a stellar PITCH and BAT record.

Due to the fact that there are far more playoff games played now than in the past modern players will eventually rise to the top of this list.  Mariano Rivera will probably never be topped however.   Christy Mathewson started his career in 1900 and held the top spot until Rivera came along.

Let’s look at Mariano’s extended record.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+001+ 9.30 141.0 0.70 0 97 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH

141 innings pitched in 97 games in relief is around two complete reliever seasons and almost a complete season for a starter.  An ERA under 1 is simply phenomenal that may never happen again.  Curt Schilling is also in the top ten at #8.

Below are the details of Mariano Rivera’s career according to both this data model and WAR.

Mariano Rivera Career

WAA

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
1995 -163- -1.64 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1996 +033+ 6.40 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1997 +070+ 4.07 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1998 +090+ 3.57 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1999 +064+ 4.64 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2000 +101+ 3.49 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2001 +081+ 3.86 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2002 XXXXX 1.62 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2003 +066+ 4.43 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2004 +052+ 4.64 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2005 +031+ 5.38 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2006 +046+ 4.77 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2007 +162+ 2.18 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2008 +044+ 4.83 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2009 +065+ 3.93 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2010 +093+ 3.19 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2011 +095+ 2.88 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2012 XXXXX 0.36 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2013 +110+ 2.65 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
Total 65.25  1960

His best year was 1996, his second season and second best year was 2005.  Overall he was consistently good every single year.  The ranking score highlighted in brown can be directly compared with the ranking score calculated for the WAR value system below.

WAR

Year Rank WAR IP Name_TeamID Pos
1995 XXXXX 0.2 67.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1996 +048+ 5.0 107.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1997 +088+ 3.7 71.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1998 +151+ 2.8 61.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
1999 +100+ 3.5 69.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2000 +156+ 2.6 75.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2001 +111+ 3.3 80.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2002 XXXXX 1.6 46.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2003 +097+ 3.6 70.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2004 +068+ 4.2 78.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2005 +074+ 4.0 78.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2006 +083+ 3.9 75.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2007 XXXXX 1.9 71.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2008 +071+ 4.3 70.2 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2009 +099+ 3.5 66.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2010 +179+ 2.4 60.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2011 +112+ 3.2 61.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2012 XXXXX 0.4 8.1 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
2013 +172+ 2.5 64.0 Mariano_Rivera_NYA PITCH
Total 56.6  1391

With a 1391 ranking score WAR has him less valued than this data model by a significant margin.  I do not have any WAR information about post season and doubt that can even be calculated.

Not much more to say about Mariano Rivera except he totally deserves a unanimous first ballot induction.  In subsequent parts will cover the other inductees and the ones who almost made it.  Until then ….

How can Larry Walker not be in the HOF?

After checking my automated scripts that generate yearly top and bottom ten lists at both the league and team level I ran across Larry Walker who scored very high in both WAR and WAA results.  I googled to see when Larry Walker got inducted into the HOF to find that he hasn’t.  Here is a blurb from Sports Illustrated article written 1/11/2013.

Larry Walker, who played 17 years with the Expos, Rockies and Cardinals, received 21.6 percent of this year’s Hall of Fame vote in his third year on the ballot after receiving 20.3 percent and 22.9 percent his first two years. (Seventy-five percent is needed for election; five percent is needed to remain on the ballot.) Despite Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio and Curt Schilling, among others, joining the ballot for the first time, no player received enough votes for Hall enshrinement.

via Larry Walker on Hall of Fame ballot results, controversy – MLB – SI.com.

This is a good opportunity to introduce a new career presentation that will be generated for every MLB baseball player.  Below is the script output for Larry Walker.

Larry Walker 1989 – 2005

The first table represents this data model.  War is shown in the Extended Stats section.  WAA is the weighting factor that is generated by the mathematics used in this data model.  The Score column is a new concept described in this post.

Year WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_Tm Pos Score
1989 -0.4 0.170 0.264 56 4 4 Larry_Walker WAS RF 0
1990 0.7 0.241 0.326 478 51 59 Larry_Walker WAS RF 36
1991 0.2 0.290 0.349 539 64 59 Larry_Walker WAS RF-1B 0
1992 6.0 0.301 0.353 583 93 85 Larry_Walker WAS RF 277
1993 4.0 0.265 0.371 582 86 85 Larry_Walker WAS RF 232
1994 5.8 0.322 0.394 452 86 76 Larry_Walker WAS RF-1B 284
1995 6.8 0.306 0.381 562 101 96 Larry_Walker COL RF 285
1996 4.4 0.276 0.342 304 58 58 Larry_Walker COL CF-RF 229
1997 12.7 0.366 0.452 664 130 143 Larry_Walker COL RF 298
1998 5.9 0.363 0.445 524 67 113 Larry_Walker COL RF 261
1999 10.3 0.379 0.458 513 115 108 Larry_Walker COL RF 295
2000 2.4 0.309 0.409 372 51 64 Larry_Walker COL RF-LF 138
2001 9.7 0.350 0.449 601 123 107 Larry_Walker COL RF 292
2002 7.5 0.338 0.421 553 104 95 Larry_Walker COL RF 283
2003 3.4 0.284 0.422 564 79 86 Larry_Walker COL RF 195
2004 1.0 0.324 0.464 138 20 22 Larry_Walker COL RF 148
2004 1.4 0.280 0.393 178 27 29 Larry_Walker SLN RF X
2005 3.6 0.289 0.384 367 52 66 Larry_Walker SLN RF 214

Career WAA BAT Value = 85.4

Career WAA Ranking Score = 3467

Extended Stats

Year WAR AB HR SB Name_Tm Score
1989 -0.2 47 0 1 Larry_Walker WAS -43
1990 3.4 419 19 21 Larry_Walker WAS 211
1991 3.4 487 16 14 Larry_Walker WAS 207
1992 5.4 528 23 18 Larry_Walker WAS 264
1993 4.3 490 22 29 Larry_Walker WAS 241
1994 4.7 395 19 15 Larry_Walker WAS 282
1995 4.7 494 36 16 Larry_Walker COL 266
1996 1.2 272 18 18 Larry_Walker COL 0
1997 9.8 568 49 33 Larry_Walker COL 299
1998 5.7 454 23 14 Larry_Walker COL 261
1999 5.1 438 37 11 Larry_Walker COL 260
2000 1.6 314 9 5 Larry_Walker COL 21
2001 7.8 497 38 14 Larry_Walker COL 291
2002 6.0 477 26 6 Larry_Walker COL 278
2003 4.4 454 16 7 Larry_Walker COL 235
2004 2.7 258 17 6 Larry_Walker TOT 138
2005 2.4 315 15 2 Larry_Walker SLN 108

Career WAR BAT Value = 72.4

Career WAR Ranking Score = 3319

The two systems are very much in agreement over Larry Walker with respect to ranking score.  I have not yet done a historical analysis as to what scores qualifies for HOF but off the top of my head any WAA over 80 should be voted in on first ballot.   Other than PEDs which Walker hasn’t been linked to in any way there is no excuse why Larry Walker has not been voted in other than perhaps  HOF voters cannot properly discern baseball stats.

2014 Career Leaders

2014 Career Leaders

The following table lists the top 25 careers for players on an active 2014 roster according to WAA.   There isn’t enough data to include the 2014 season so far.  This is the first time I automated this kind of sort so I found this list rather interesting.  A WAA over 70 gets a player into the HOF for certain.  For other positions HOF eligibility may vary due to their defensive contributions.  Fielding is a separate class and treated independently of the WAA valuation.

Career WAA Name Years BAT/PITCH
103.1 Albert_Pujols_ANA 2001-2013 BAT
81.4 David_Ortiz_BOS 1997-2013 BAT
74.5 Miguel_Cabrera_DET 2003-2013 BAT
62.1 Carlos_Beltran_NYA 1998-2013 BAT
59.6 Tim_Hudson_SFN 1999-2013 PITCH
58.2 Mark_Teixeira_NYA 2003-2013 BAT
57.1 Matt_Holliday_SLN 2004-2013 BAT
56.6 Ryan_Howard_PHI 2004-2013 BAT
44.7 Aramis_Ramirez_MIL 1998-2013 BAT
44.4 Felix_Hernandez_SEA 2005-2013 PITCH
44.0 CC_Sabathia_NYA 2001-2013 PITCH
43.0 Ryan_Braun_MIL 2007-2013 BAT
41.9 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 2008-2013 PITCH
41.0 Torii_Hunter_DET 1997-2013 BAT
40.3 Alfonso_Soriano_NYA 1999-2013 BAT
40.0 Chase_Utley_PHI 2003-2013 BAT
39.2 David_Wright_NYN 2004-2013 BAT
38.9 Roberto_Hernandez_PHI 1991-2007 PITCH
37.5 Derek_Jeter_NYA 1995-2013 BAT
37.3 Raul_Ibanez_ANA 1996-2013 BAT
36.5 Josh_Hamilton_ANA 2007-2013 BAT
36.5 Adam_Dunn_CHA 2001-2013 BAT
36.1 Paul_Konerko_CHA 1997-2013 BAT
35.3 Prince_Fielder_TEX 2005-2013 BAT
35.1 Robinson_Cano_SEA 2005-2013 BAT