Tag Archives: playoffs

ALCS NLCS Handicapping

Today we’ll just show handicapping for ALCS and NLCS.  Playoff rosters and horse race tables tomorrow.

WAS SLN 10_12_4:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.565 0.582 102 3.15 3.16 -0.17
SLN 20 0.455 0.418 92 -0.04 0.16 1.95

Washington more heavily favored by TC Sim than Vegas but both in the same ballpark pun intended.  L, S, and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.16
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Scherzer is a top tier pitcher, Wainwright is just average.

Update 8th inning:  Andrew Miller just came in to relieve Wainwright and got two outs.  Miller has playoff experience so I looked him up.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+053+ 2.12 38.0 1.18 0 26 Andrew_Miller_TOT PITCH

Ranked #53 of all MLB players who played in playoffs since 1903.  Not bad.  Need to incorporate this into TC Sim somehow.

NYA HOU 10_12_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.417 0.437 105 4.00 -0.41 2.96
HOU 52 0.600 0.563 93 4.00 3.71 3.46

Vegas and TC Sim pretty much in agreement.  Two maxed out Tier 4.00 lineups in this game.  HOU has much better starter and both relief squads very good — as one would expect from two teams competing for a pennant.

Note: Lineup values taken from each team’s last game because they won’t be released until later.  I do not expect either lineup to drop below Tier 4.00.  Tomorrow we’ll show these lineups in detail.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 0.25 0.506 182.0 -0.41
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.71

According to this season Greinke is a far better pitcher.  According to post season however …

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 2.69 50.0 1.26 8 1 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH

Tanaka is the superior pitcher by far.  TC Sim uses regular season stats and Vegas bettors probably don’t know about the above.  Dave Roberts certainly didn’t know how bad Kershaw was in playoff situations which is the reason Washington is playing in NLCS today.

That’s all.  NLCS already started, top of 2nd 0-0.  Playoff horse race and complete roster analysis for all four teams tomorrow.  Until then ….

Divisional Series Handicapping

This post will simply handicap the 2 ALDS and NLDS games today.   Handicapping playoff games is still a work in progress.  The model used in TC Simulation is based upon historical regular season games but that’s all we have right now.

The game tables below outline  real team WAA, Lineups, Starter, and Relief, values used in simulation.   The intensity in desire to win is far greater in post season than regular season.  Sometimes teams get beaten down so much in playoffs they just give up, sometimes it makes them try harder.  Sometimes great teams simply choke under pressure (hello 2008 Chicago Cubs).   This is hard, if not impossible to model.

That said, below are handicapping tables for the 4 games today with comments interspersed where necessary.

LAN WAS 10_07_6:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.465 0.578 X 2.00 1.07 3.06
WAS 24 0.556 0.422 X 1.48 3.16 -0.17

Vegas has Washington favored, TC Sim the opposite.  The rest of the numbers show how TC Sim came up with its estimation.  WAS has a starter advantage today and that’s about it.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Rich_Hill_LAN 2.79 0.714 58.7 1.07
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.16

Scherzer is the better starter.  Rich Hill didn’t pitch many innings this season.  Tiering is not done on rates like Win Percentage nor should it.

ATL SLN 10_07_3:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.495 0.553 X 1.43 0.57 2.42
SLN 20 0.528 0.447 X -1.02 2.17 1.95

This is probably where home field advantage kicks in.  Cardinals have better starting pitcher.  Atlanta has better lineup.  Relief around the same.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 1.93 0.577 112.7 0.57
Dakota_Hudson_SLN 4.70 0.621 174.7 2.17

Hudson is Cardinals’ second best starter behind Flaherty.  Keuchel’s career years were 2015 and 2017.  Since we’re from the future we know Keuchel gave up two runs already in first two innings.

NYA MIN 10_07_8:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.592 0.501 X 2.85 -0.07 2.96
MIN 40 0.444 0.499 X 2.96 1.46 3.20

Again, on paper these two teams are equal.  MIN is down 2-0 after getting slaughtered in New York so they might be in giving up get it over with mode.  Vegas has NYA heavily favored almost 3/2 tonight.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Luis_Severino_NYA 0.84 0.815 12.0 -0.07
Jake_Odorizzi_MIN 3.46 0.598 159.0 1.46

With only 12 innings pitched by Severino,  this game would be disqualified for handicapping in regular season.

HOU TBA 10_07_1:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.545 0.639 X 3.21 3.71 3.46
TBA 30 0.476 0.361 X -0.82 3.04 1.72

Since we’re from the future we know TBA is up 9-3 in the 6th.  This is probably an example where home field advantage comes into play for playoffs.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.71
Charlie_Morton_TBA 6.19 0.643 194.7 3.04

Two top shelf pitchers pitching today and it looks like the over won on this game already.  Baseball outcomes can be funny sometimes.  Data like this is also not evaluated by TC Simulation in post season either.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH post season

Grienke had a rough go of it in post season and today he gave up 6 runs in 3 2/3 innings which will sink him even further into the playoff abyss.

That is all for now.  Historical playoff data to compare with the current crop of contenders coming soon.  More handicapping tomorrow.  Until then ….

NLDS Matchups

Here are the NLDS Matchups for today.  Not much commenting because I had to wait for lineups and watched the Bears game.

Braves vs. Cardinals

Atlanta beat the Cardinals 3-1 today.  Below are last two week stretches for both teams.

ATL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ATL 93 57 85.4 36.7 -10.9 20190915
ATL 97 64 71.8 49.0 -8.8 20190930

SLN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 83 65 -33.6 113.8 11.1 20190915
SLN 90 71 -31.2 106.1 6.2 20190930

ATL SLN 10_06_4:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.545 0.604 X 1.60 3.71 2.42
SLN 20 0.476 0.396 X -0.78 0.16 1.95

EVs will not be displayed because there are other aspects of playoffs that need to be modeled.  The L , S and R columns represent Lineups, Starter, and Relief strengths.  Atlanta has Cardinals beat in every category.  That doesn’t mean Atlanta is guaranteed to win however, just that they have a greater than 50/50 chance.  TC Sim calculates that probability and has them favored more than Vegas today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Mike_Soroka_ATL 7.35 0.689 174.7 3.71
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Soroka is a better pitcher than Wainwriight this season.  Even WAR agrees.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+097+ 3.25 Shane_Greene_ATL 62.7
+176+ 2.10 Sean_Newcomb_ATL 68.3
+196+ 1.81 Max_Fried_ATL 165.7
XXXXX 1.36 Josh_Tomlin_ATL 79.3
XXXXX 1.32 Mark_Melancon_ATL 67.3
XXXXX 1.09 Luke_Jackson_ATL 72.7
XXXXX 0.34 Darren_O’Day_ATL 5.3
Total 11.27 TIER=2.42

Top notch relief staff.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 3.78 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 74.0
XXXXX 1.55 John_Brebbia_SLN 72.7
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 48.3
XXXXX 1.34 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 36.7
XXXXX 0.94 Tyler_Webb_SLN 55.0
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 48.7
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Miller_SLN 54.7
XXXXX -0.17 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 20.3
Total 9.95 TIER=1.95

At almost Tier 2 means SLN has a relief staff around one standard deviation above league average.

ATL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+030+ 5.69 Ronald_Acuna_ATL CF-LF-RF 715
+192+ 1.83 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 702
+013+ 6.91 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 692
+102+ 3.13 Josh_Donaldson_ATL 3B 659
XXXXX 0.94 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 469
XXXXX -0.29 Matt_Joyce_ATL RF 238
XXXXX -0.40 Brian_McCann_ATL CR 316
XXXXX 1.01 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 545
XXXXX 0.00 Mike_Soroka_ATL none 0
Total 18.82 TIER=1.60

This isn’t a +30 lineup like 3 ALDS teams put up yesterday but it’s decent.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
-158- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 492
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Adam_Wainwright_SLN none 0
Total 2.66 TIER=-0.78

SLN has a below average lineup which reflects their below average BAT in team status above.

Dodgers vs. Nationals

Dodgers are beating Nationals 8-4 right now.  Last two weeks team statuses below for each team.

LAN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 96 54 97.5 156.6 -15.9 20190915
LAN 105 56 102.8 174.1 -12.8 20190930

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 81 66 56.0 31.7 17.1 20190915
WAS 92 69 78.8 42.0 18.2 20190930

LAN WAS 10_06_7:45_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.615 0.619 X 2.15 4.00 3.06
WAS 24 0.408 0.381 X 1.65 0.96 -0.17

Vegas and TC Sim almost completely in agreement.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN 9.30 0.729 182.7 4.00
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 0.96

Patrick Corbin comes in relief to Sanchez in this game because we’re from the future.  Corbin’s ranking shown below in Starters section.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+070+ 3.74 Julio_Urias_LAN 79.7
+161+ 2.27 Pedro_Baez_LAN 69.7
+170+ 2.16 Ross_Stripling_LAN 90.7
XXXXX 1.64 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 153.7
XXXXX 1.47 Adam_Kolarek_LAN 55.0
XXXXX 1.16 Kenley_Jansen_LAN 63.0
XXXXX 0.69 Dustin_May_LAN 34.7
XXXXX -0.08 Joe_Kelly_LAN 51.3
Total 13.05 TIER=3.06

This is a top shelf MLB relief staff.  WAR has this staff bottom of 8 MLB contenders.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX -0.04 Wander_Suero_WAS 71.3
XXXXX -0.59 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 24.3
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 4.16 TIER=-0.17

This is a league average relief staff and a weakness for the Nationals.

LAN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+090+ 3.34 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-RF-1B 514
+029+ 5.82 Max_Muncy_LAN 2B-1B-3B 589
XXXXX 1.39 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 549
+008+ 7.85 Cody_Bellinger_LAN RF-1B-CF 661
+064+ 3.91 Corey_Seager_LAN SS 541
XXXXX 1.32 A.J._Pollock_LAN CF-LF 342
XXXXX 0.10 Gavin_Lux_LAN 2B 82
XXXXX -1.22 Russell_Martin_LAN CR 249
XXXXX 0.00 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN none 0
Total 22.51 TIER=2.15

Around one standard deviation above average lineup.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX -1.45 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 482
XXXXX -1.13 Michael_A._Taylor_WAS CF 97
XXXXX 0.00 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS none 0
Total 19.15 TIER=1.65

A slightly less lineup than Dodgers.

Starters

Below is a dump of starters for the four NLDS teams according to our source that publishes roster data.

Braves

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 7.35 Mike_Soroka_ATL 174.7
+122+ 2.73 Julio_Teheran_ATL 174.7
+187+ 1.93 Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 112.7
XXXXX -0.15 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 117.0
Total 11.86 0.592

Cardinals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+007+ 8.04 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 196.3
+048+ 4.70 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 174.7
XXXXX 1.49 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 184.0
XXXXX 1.24 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 171.7
Total 15.47 0.596

Dodgers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 9.30 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 182.7
+025+ 6.11 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 178.3
+036+ 5.27 Walker_Buehler_LAN 182.3
+120+ 2.79 Rich_Hill_LAN 58.7
Total 23.47 0.675

This is an extremely good rotation which one would expect based on their PITCH in team status.

Nationals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

Another very good rotation.  Patrick Corbin just got tagged for 6 runs in relief to Sanchez.

That’s all for now.  A script generates these posts and I write summary blurbs.  Had to wait for lineups and didn’t get to this until late in LAN/WAS game.  We’ll just handicap the 4 games tomorrow now that rosters have been covered.  Until then ….

2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 11

… and then there were 8.   Let’s look at the playoff horse race table for the final 8 horses in this race.

ELO

elo10042019

Looks like Dodgers eeked out Astros in ELO.  WAR has Dodgers near the bottom, this data model has them second to HOU.  Do not know how ELO is compiled so can’t comment further.  The next two tables are standard playoff horse race tables breaking down each team’s 25 player roster according to this data model (WAA) and WAR.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 63.0 28.1 26.2 8.7 14.4
LAN 50 53.8 21.1 24.5 8.3 -12.6
WAS 24 49.9 24.9 20.9 4.2 18.4
MIN 40 49.1 31.1 4.5 13.5 -14.6
NYA 44 42.3 28.6 1.6 12.1 11.4
ATL 32 38.2 14.0 13.7 10.5 -8.6
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4
TBA 30 19.3 -1.2 11.2 9.3 1.4

Houston has the best starting rotation while MIN has best hitters and relief.  Let’s see what WAR has to say.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 67.5 39.1 21.7 6.7 14.4
WAS 24 52.9 26.2 21.5 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 49.3 33.8 7.4 8.1 11.4
MIN 40 49.0 31.8 9.9 7.3 -14.6
TBA 30 45.7 27.1 10.6 8.0 1.4
ATL 32 44.2 22.7 14.0 7.5 -8.6
LAN 50 41.4 26.4 13.0 2.0 -12.6
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

Dodgers as a team gave up the fewest runs by far in MLB which means great pitching.  Below are the top two according to PITCH.

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 106 56 107.9 177.8 -12.6
HOU 107 55 139.9 127.8 14.4

The above shows the  LAN way above second place HOU.  WAA has LAN and HOU pitching around equal, top of the pack.  WAR has LAN Starter + Relief value at the bottom of these 8 teams.  That is simply not possible based on PITCH.  A team does not win by having more strikeouts or less walks than the other team.  Teams win by giving up fewer runs than the other team.

Handicapping 10/4/2019

The below will show game tables the four divisional games played today.

WAS LAN 10_04_9:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.417 0.420 97 2.63 2.95 -0.03
LAN 50 0.600 0.580 99 3.15 3.09 1.60

Vegas and TC Sim in agreement on this game except for …

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 6.11 0.654 178.3 3.09

Both pitchers about equal, each having a great season.  WAR has Strasburg ranked #15, Kershaw #95.  Here’s their post season records.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH
-008- -2.73 184.3 4.20 29 7 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH

Kershaw had problems in past post seasons and Strasburg hardly gave up any runs so far in his 33 innings of post season work.  Past results don’t affect future results.  All Cubs fans are thankful that playoff Clayton Kershaw came out to pitch in 2016 NLCS.  Handicapping is based upon the value of regular season Clayton Kershaw however.

TBA HOU 10_04_2:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.312 0.345 110 -0.54 1.68 2.04
HOU 52 0.722 0.655 90 4.00 4.00 1.79

Houston won this game.  Vegas had them at almost 3-1 favorites.  They had a maxed out lineup and starter today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 3.74 0.777 60.7 1.68
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander is the #1 player this season according to this data model.  He’s #5 with WAR.

SLN ATL 10_04_4:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.524 0.474 90 -0.31 4.00 2.29
ATL 32 0.500 0.526 105 2.14 -0.62 2.51

Vegas favors SLN slightly, TC Sim favors ATL slightly; both around 50/50 don’t know for this game.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL -0.15 0.494 117.0 -0.62

Flaherty is Cardinals’ best pitcher.

MIN NYA 10_04_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIN 40 0.370 0.494 133 3.95 1.57 3.72
NYA 44 0.655 0.506 77 3.64 0.90 3.13

Vegas has Yankees heavily favored.  TC Sim calls this game even steven.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Berrios_MIN 3.55 0.580 200.3 1.57
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.90

Neither starter has post season experience.

Looks like we’re at the end.  Handicapping post tomorrow and maybe with some drill down into playoff rosters for the ALDS teams.  Then we’ll do NLDS.   Until then ….

AL Wild Card Game

AL Wild Card Game tonight.  Let’s look at this matchup.

TBA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
TBA 89 61 -8.5 112.7 2.1 20190915
TBA 96 66 -16.1 120.8 1.4 20191002

Tampa has near top of MLB PITCH based on runs scored against.  They went from +28 to +30 in the last two weeks gaining 2 games.  Their BAT is a little under water based on seasonal runs scored.

OAK Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
OAK 89 60 68.4 50.7 22.1 20190915
OAK 97 65 56.9 76.8 25.4 20191002

Oakland has balanced BAT and PITCH and top of MLB UR which means very good fielding.  They went from +29 to +32 gaining 3 games in the last two weeks which is good.  A team that gains 3 games a month will win 90 games in a season.  Both these teams tonight won way more than that.

TBA OAK 10_02_8:09_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.465 0.468 101 -0.38 3.26 1.52
OAK 32 0.556 0.532 96 1.89 0.88 3.72

Vegas and TC Sim almost exactly in agreement on this game, both favoring the home team OAK.  WAA about the same between these two teams.  OAK has better lineup and relief, TBA has a better starter tonight.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Charlie_Morton_TBA 6.19 0.643 194.7 3.26
Sean_Manaea_OAK 2.25 0.840 29.7 0.88

With only 29 2/3 innings pitched, Sean Manaea is a relatively new guy who is Oakland’s hottest pitcher right now based upon Win Percentage.  Oakland has Mike Fiers backing him up and listed as the only other starter on their playoff roster.

Morton is a top tier pitcher this season but had a very tumultuous career since 2008.  His post season record isn’t very good.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -1.11 54.7 4.45 10 4 Charlie_Morton_TOT PITCH

An ERA of 4.45 would be around average in a regular season.  Teams give up far less runs in post season so Morton is under water.  He isn’t ranked in the bottom 200 however like a future HOF pitcher for LAN who we’ll mention during NLDS coverage.  Sometimes great pitchers have trouble in post season and teams have to pitch them often and hope for the best.

TBA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+083+ 3.42 Emilio_Pagan_TBA 70.0
+198+ 1.74 Nick_Anderson_TBA 65.0
XXXXX 1.62 Diego_Castillo_TBA 68.7
XXXXX 1.57 Oliver_Drake_TBA 56.0
XXXXX 0.42 Chaz_Roe_TBA 51.0
XXXXX -0.36 Colin_Poche_TBA 51.7
Total 8.41 TIER=1.52

This is an above average relief squad.

OAK Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+037+ 5.23 Liam_Hendriks_OAK 85.0
+088+ 3.36 Yusmeiro_Petit_OAK 83.0
+179+ 2.10 Chris_Bassitt_OAK 144.0
XXXXX 1.55 Ryan_Buchter_OAK 45.3
XXXXX 0.82 Jesus_Luzardo_OAK 12.0
XXXXX 0.65 J.B._Wendelken_OAK 32.7
XXXXX 0.34 A.J._Puk_OAK 11.3
XXXXX 0.21 Joakim_Soria_OAK 69.0
XXXXX -0.17 Jake_Diekman_OAK 62.0
Total 14.09 TIER=3.72

This relief squad is almost 2 standard deviations above league average and might be the best of the 10 remaining teams playing baseball now.  We’ll know for sure in a few days when all playoff rosters are released.

TBA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.67 Yandy_Diaz_TBA 3B-1B-DH 347
XXXXX -1.51 Tommy_Pham_TBA LF-DH 654
+111+ 2.94 Austin_Meadows_TBA RF-DH-LF 591
+130+ 2.71 Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA CR-1B 391
-156- -1.81 Matt_Duffy_TBA 3B 169
XXXXX 0.40 Avisail_Garcia_TBA RF-DH-CF 530
-114- -2.23 Willy_Adames_TBA SS 584
XXXXX -0.21 Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA CF 480
XXXXX -0.17 Michael_Brosseau_TBA 2B 142
Total 0.96 TIER=-0.38

This lineup is slightly below average which one would expect based upon their BAT in team status.

OAK Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+082+ 3.42 Marcus_Semien_OAK SS 747
+108+ 3.00 Ramon_Laureano_OAK CF-RF 481
+106+ 3.09 Matt_Chapman_OAK 3B 670
+098+ 3.19 Matt_Olson_OAK 1B 547
XXXXX 1.74 Mark_Canha_OAK CF-RF-DH-1B-LF 497
XXXXX 0.57 Jurickson_Profar_OAK 2B 518
XXXXX 0.40 Khris_Davis_OAK DH 533
-096- -2.39 Robbie_Grossman_OAK LF-RF 482
XXXXX 0.78 Sean_Murphy_OAK CR 60
Total 13.80 TIER=1.89

This is a decent lineup for a playoff team.

That’s all for now.  ALDS and NLDS handicapping next and when we get all playoff rosters we’ll do part 11 of the playoff horse race series — this time with actual playoff contenders.  Until then .,…