Tag Archives: playoffs

NL Wild Card Game

Playoff season starts tonight with the NL Wild Card game between Brewers and Nationals in Washington.  This post will be like a regular season matchup post except it will feature both teams’ instead of just the team playing the Cubs.

Teams submit a 25 player roster at the beginning of each set of playoffs.  September expansion rosters cause problems for tiering for many reasons that we’ll get into later.  Tiering for playoffs will use end of August rosters using end of year data for all non playoff teams.

Wild Card playoff games are one and out.  Let’s look at these two teams.

MIL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIL 78 69 -22.0 -16.7 8.9 20190914
MIL 89 73 -9.1 8.9 6.4 20191001

Last two weeks Brewers went from +9 to +16 gaining 7 games which is very good.  Both BAT and PITCH improved to register almost even steven for the season in run differential.

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 81 65 59.5 37.3 16.9 20190914
WAS 93 69 82.9 43.8 18.4 20191001

Nationals went from +16 to +24 gaining 8 games  in the last two weeks of this season which is also very good.  These two team put the Cubs’ -5 games performance during their last two week run into perspective.

BAT improved tremendously, PITCH up, and UR, Unearned Runs above average, which is second best in MLB behind OAK this season.

MIL WAS 10_01_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIL 16 0.377 0.400 106 0.13 0.90 0.17
WAS 24 0.643 0.600 93 3.97 3.28 -0.51

Washington is up in WAA, way up in Lineup and Starter.  MIL has a slight edge with relief but both squads hovering around average.  At 0.643 Vegas has WAS almost a 2-1 favorite tonight.  TC Sim has them less favored at 0.600 ( 3/2 ).  Both systems are fairly equal, both favor the Nationals tonight.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Brandon_Woodruff_MIL 2.37 0.588 121.7 0.90
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.28

Not much more to say about this.  Being a one game series each team plays their best  starter.  There is no need to list starters since this is a one game series.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+096+ 3.25 Josh_Hader_MIL 75.7
+197+ 1.78 Junior_Guerra_MIL 83.7
XXXXX 1.70 Brent_Suter_MIL 18.3
XXXXX 0.57 Alex_Claudio_MIL 62.0
XXXXX 0.00 Jay_Jackson_MIL 30.3
XXXXX -1.01 Drew_Pomeranz_MIL 104.0
-191- -1.66 Freddy_Peralta_MIL 85.0
Total 4.63 TIER=0.17

That’s a good top end to this relief squad but it drops off quickly which will be trouble for Brewers if Woodruff goes down early.  And if he does Brewers have real starters to do long relief.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX -0.59 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 24.3
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 2.96 TIER=-0.51

WAS relief is no bowl of cherries either.  Hudson had a good season but he can’t pitch every inning in relief unless Scherzer goes 7 or 8 innings.  But they have Stasburg and Corbin sitting on the bench if things get out of hand.

MIL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.38 Trent_Grisham_MIL CF-LF-RF 183
XXXXX 0.27 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR-1B 632
+125+ 2.65 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 3B-2B 584
XXXXX 1.64 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 348
+160+ 2.29 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 508
XXXXX 1.74 Eric_Thames_MIL 1B-RF 459
-058- -2.96 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 623
-100- -2.37 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 546
XXXXX 0.00 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL none 0
Total 3.64 TIER=0.13

At Tier 0.13 this is a league average lineup.  Looks like Yelich is still missing.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX 0.00 Max_Scherzer_WAS none 0
Total 25.28 TIER=3.97

This is a rock em sock em lineup that should light up a relatively mediocre playoff pitcher like Woodruff.  Tier 3.97 means this lineup is almost 2 complete standard deviations above league average based on 30 MLB teams.  This is a lineup that can win a World Series.

The next playoff horse race post will come when when the 8 divisional contenders release their playoff rosters.  If WAS wins it will be interesting to see how they fare against teams like LAN and HOU.  The MLB commissioner makes teams play the game instead of determining who wins based on best stats.  One game playoffs can be a crap shoot where anything can happen.  Having a 60% chance of winning means WAS has a 40% chance of losing — well within the realm of possibility.

AL Wild Card tomorrow and then some historical playoff horse race tables coming next.  Until then ….

2018 World Series Report Part 1

Today will be part one of a World Series Report series.  These will be similar to the preceding playoff report series which mean mostly database dumps with some commentary about the results if they’re interesting. Today we’ll start with a complete playoff horse race sorted by team total WAA, the value stat generated by this data model.

Playoff Horse Race Part 8

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 50.7 28.1 22.6 14.9 7.6
BOS 54 42.2 31.6 10.6 8.9 1.7

… and then there were two.  Totals not much different from Part 7 of the playoff horse race series.   LAN has a better set of starters and better relief.  Boston fields a much better starting lineup as we’ll see below even though both teams have similar hitting.   Dodger hitting is spread out so they’ll have better late game pinch hitting which could be a factor in close games between two high caliber teams.  Let’s hear what the people think about tonight.

Handicapping Report

DATE 10_23_8:05_PM LAN BOS

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.426 ] < 0.417 > +140 $240
STARTAWAY 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.592 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.492 LAN 4.38 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.508 BOS 4.45 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN BOS
Tier Combo 118 84
Home Field 110 90

Two top tier MLB starters pitching tonight who must each face top tier lineups.  LAN has a slight edge with relief.  Boston fields a much better lineup even though both considered Tier 1 which gives them a slight edge in simulation.  Simulations use deltas between tiers not hard boundaries.  More about that in the off season.

The market however favors Boston significantly higher which causes Dodgers Expected Value for TC simulation to be 118, almost betting opportunity.  Home field disadvantage for LAN drops this to 110.  Right now claw back into historical lines data has not been done.  The above shows Boston is over valued based upon current data.  Kershaw can be flaky in the playoffs which are anomalies that can’t be quantified so we’ll see.

Let’s look at a lineup snapshot for each team taken a couple days ago which shouldn’t be much different than the official ones posted later.  We’ll also show Tier data and relief rosters according to our source.  For some reason (probably because our source is not that reliable) Boston is missing a player but that shouldn’t affect the below summary much.

Update 10/24:  That missing Boston player has been found and it’s starter Nathan Eovaldi who has a WAA=0.86 for the year which is solid Tier 3.  That 0.86 is not included in the playoff horse race table above.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10172018
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
4.98 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B-3B-2B 481
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN CR-2B 238
-0.48 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PR 57
Total WAA=16.00 PA=3921 WinPct=0.578

This is considered Tier 1 but just barely.  The Tier 1/2 boundary is +15.36 which is based upon a distribution of lineups from all 30 teams.

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10162018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
2.12 Steve_Pearce_BOS 1B-DH-LF 251
-1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH 502
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
-2.10 Christian_Vazquez_BOS CR 269
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
Total WAA=26.33 PA=4595 WinPct=0.610

This far exceeds the Tier 1/2 boundary and since simulations use deltas to determine differences, Boston’s lineup against Clayton Kershaw and LAN relief is greater than Dodgers barely Tier 1 lineup against a higher rated pitcher in Chris Sale.  This is why TC simulation sees the game more even steven than the blowout predicted by the market.

LAN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 LAN 16.00
SP 1 Walker_Buehler_LAN 4.64
SP 3 Rich_Hill_LAN 1.26
SP 1 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 5.02
SP 1 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 4.03
RP 2 LAN 7.64

Dodgers are showing their four starters while Boston below only shows 3.  The missing Boston player might be their fourth starter because it’s hard to make it through a seven game series with only 3 starters.

BOS Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 BOS 22.60
SP 3 Rick_Porcello_BOS -0.73
SP 3 David_Price_BOS 2.21
SP 1 Chris_Sale_BOS 7.41
RP 3 BOS 1.68

Lineups in tier data took a different snapshot than the listed lineup shown above.  All lineups vary a little from day to day.  Boston relief also took a big hit making them close to the Tier 3/4 border which is at WAA=0 for all 30 teams.

Note: Relief distributions are taken for the other 28 teams from end of August rosters using end of year data for each player.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+096+ 2.83 Dylan_Floro_TOT PITCH
+192+ 1.76 Kenley_Jansen_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.57 Pedro_Baez_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.39 Alex_Wood_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.78 Kenta_Maeda_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.59 Scott_Alexander_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 Julio_Urias_LAN PITCH
-186- -1.62 Ryan_Madson_TOT PITCH
Total 7.68

The Tier 2/3 border for relief is +6.26 so LAN is has a relief staff almost a complete tier above Boston.  This will be true for the entire series.

BOS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+163+ 1.99 Craig_Kimbrel_BOS PITCH
+168+ 1.97 Ryan_Brasier_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Eduardo_Rodriguez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.67 Matt_Barnes_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Heath_Hembree_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.40 Joe_Kelly_BOS PITCH
-025- -3.38 Drew_Pomeranz_BOS PITCH
Total 1.67

I double checked this and Drew Pomeranz appears to be on the playoff roster.  Not sure why.  There maybe matchup considerations with Dodger hitting that we don’t know about.   There must be a good reason — including our source for rosters made a mistake.  We’ll see.

That is all for showing playoff roster information.  Except for lineups the above won’t change much.  The rest of the world series reports will only show the handicapping with commentary if necessary.

Playoff Report 10/20/2018

This will be the final playoff report for LCS.  Apparently Milwaukee’s gambit in LA paid off and now the NLCS is down to a final game — much like how the Cubs did it in 2016.  Here’s what the people say about today.

DATE 10_20_8:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.535 ] < 0.531 > -113 $188
STARTAWAY 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.488 ] < 0.493 > +103 $203
STARTHOME 2.73(0.564) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.535 LAN 4.46 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.465 MIL 4.12 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 101 94
Home Field 86 110

Vegas lines and Tier Combo simulation are almost exactly in sync making this game a complete discard.  EV for Home Field advantage is at 110 for MIL but bets are not to be made based upon historical home field advantage because we have a lot more information about this game.  Game starts tonight so we’ll see.

World Series reports will come next.  Until then ….

Playoff Report 10/19/2018

Boston back in the World Series since 2013 when we started doing this.  More on the World Series when we get there.  Still two teams battling it out for the other spot.  Let’s hear what the people say about this game tonight in this playoff report.

DATE 10_19_8:35_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.545 ] < 0.524 > -110 $190
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.476 ] < 0.500 > +100 $200
STARTHOME 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.507 LAN 4.31 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.493 MIL 4.27 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 96 99
Home Field 87 108

The people don’t know how to call this game.  Lines settled on more or less even steven with LAN bettors paying the juice.  TC simulation also give LAN a very slight edge so Expected Value for both lines less than 100.  Since LINEHOME of 0.500 is less than historical home field advantage, EV for that is above 100 for Milwaukee.   Both lines clear discards.

If Milwaukee wins we’ll do this again tomorrow and if not, then we’ll wait for World Series rosters and see how the final two teams compare with each other.  Until then ….

2018 ALCS Handicapping Report

DATE 10_14_7:05_PM HOU BOS

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.498 ] < 0.565 > -130 $176
STARTAWAY 5.86(0.632) Gerrit_Cole_HOU TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.526 ] < 0.476 > +110 $210
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 2
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.522 HOU 4.61 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.478 BOS 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE HOU BOS
Tier Combo 92 100
Home Field 81 113

Boston lost yesterday.  They are underdog today with both TC simulations and the market.