Tag Archives: world series

2018 World Series Report Part 5

With Boston up 3-1 this could be the last World Series report until 2019.

DATE 10_28_8:15_PM BOS LAN

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.465 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.556 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.481 BOS 4.45 runs
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.519 LAN 4.65 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS LAN
Tier Combo 111 89
Home Field 106 92

Kershaw last pitched against Chris Sale in Boston for Game 1 so this match up is different.  Lines about the same as yesterday but TC Simulation has Dodgers favored at 0.519 break even probability.  This lowers Expected Value for Boston to 111 on a 100 risk which is close to their basic Home Field disadvantage Expected Value.

This could be the last game of the season.  If not, part 6 will be forthcoming.

Update:  It looks like Nate Silver’s model agrees.  Here’s a snapshot in case that link gets broken.

natesilver

Update2: I’m an idiot again! It might be dyslexia but read the above table opposite of what it says. Nate had BOS at 52%.  TC Simulation had Dodgers at 52%.  Nate’s model would have generated an Expected Value for Boston at 120 on a 100 bet making it a betting opportunity.  Since we’re from the future it would have been a successful betting opportunity.  Home Field Expected Value would still be 106 however and how that factors into all of this is still a work in progress.

More historical analysis between vegas lines, TC simulation, and The above coming soon in the off season ( like now ).  This will start with 2011 – 2017.  Current year event files are needed for this analysis and retrosheet.org usually releases them mid December some time.   </ end of update>

2018 World Series Report Part 4

Another World Series Report after not being able to watch the end of Game 3 because the bar closed.

DATE 10_27_8:05_PM BOS LAN

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.400 ] < 0.426 > +135 $235
STARTAWAY 0.92(0.532) Eduardo_Rodriguez_BOS TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.615 ] < 0.592 > -145 $168
STARTHOME 1.26(0.543) Rich_Hill_LAN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.507 BOS 4.86 runs
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.493 LAN 4.79 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS LAN
Tier Combo 119 83
Home Field 108 91

Tier Combo simulations favor Boston very slightly due to  starting pitching evening out.  Lines are about the same as yesterday.  Simulation has no way of knowing how badly hurt each team’s relief staff is due to the marathon game yesterday.

2018 World Series Report Part 2

Another day, another World Series Report.

DATE 10_24_8:05_PM LAN BOS

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.444 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.574 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 3
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.503 LAN 4.65 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.497 BOS 4.61 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN BOS
Tier Combo 116 85
Home Field 106 92

Yesterday LAN was around 118 Expected Value on a 100 bet and today it’s almost the same.   As we saw in the playoff horse race series, playoff teams have the best collective talent and usually, including this season, the top top tier talent end up in the World Series.

TC Simulations are based upon regular season results where  elite teams face the dregs of MLB.  Top teams facing top teams usually end up being a 50/50 event historically.   Today LAN eeks out BOS at 0.503 but for all intents and purposes that’s a flip of a coin.  This is where home field advantage comes into play.  Boston is slightly over valued based upon that.  Since it’s a cold day that should favor Boston as well.

If lineups become available they’ll post below in an update.

Update mid game2:  Lineups are finally available.  Our lineup source was down for awhile so  estimated lineups based upon snapshots were used.  BOS fielding a slightly better lineup than the snapshot.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10242018
1.03 Brian_Dozier_LAN 2B 632
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
3.67 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF-RF 506
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
2.58 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 444
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN CR-2B 238
Total WAA=16.70 PA=4333 WinPct=0.574

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10242018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
2.12 Steve_Pearce_BOS 1B-DH-LF 251
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
1.64 Rafael_Devers_BOS 3B 490
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
-2.10 Christian_Vazquez_BOS CR 269
Total WAA=29.25 PA=4583 WinPct=0.623

That might be the highest valued set of 9 players for any team this season.

2018 World Series Report Part 1

Today will be part one of a World Series Report series.  These will be similar to the preceding playoff report series which mean mostly database dumps with some commentary about the results if they’re interesting. Today we’ll start with a complete playoff horse race sorted by team total WAA, the value stat generated by this data model.

Playoff Horse Race Part 8

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 50.7 28.1 22.6 14.9 7.6
BOS 54 42.2 31.6 10.6 8.9 1.7

… and then there were two.  Totals not much different from Part 7 of the playoff horse race series.   LAN has a better set of starters and better relief.  Boston fields a much better starting lineup as we’ll see below even though both teams have similar hitting.   Dodger hitting is spread out so they’ll have better late game pinch hitting which could be a factor in close games between two high caliber teams.  Let’s hear what the people think about tonight.

Handicapping Report

DATE 10_23_8:05_PM LAN BOS

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.426 ] < 0.417 > +140 $240
STARTAWAY 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.592 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.492 LAN 4.38 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.508 BOS 4.45 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN BOS
Tier Combo 118 84
Home Field 110 90

Two top tier MLB starters pitching tonight who must each face top tier lineups.  LAN has a slight edge with relief.  Boston fields a much better lineup even though both considered Tier 1 which gives them a slight edge in simulation.  Simulations use deltas between tiers not hard boundaries.  More about that in the off season.

The market however favors Boston significantly higher which causes Dodgers Expected Value for TC simulation to be 118, almost betting opportunity.  Home field disadvantage for LAN drops this to 110.  Right now claw back into historical lines data has not been done.  The above shows Boston is over valued based upon current data.  Kershaw can be flaky in the playoffs which are anomalies that can’t be quantified so we’ll see.

Let’s look at a lineup snapshot for each team taken a couple days ago which shouldn’t be much different than the official ones posted later.  We’ll also show Tier data and relief rosters according to our source.  For some reason (probably because our source is not that reliable) Boston is missing a player but that shouldn’t affect the below summary much.

Update 10/24:  That missing Boston player has been found and it’s starter Nathan Eovaldi who has a WAA=0.86 for the year which is solid Tier 3.  That 0.86 is not included in the playoff horse race table above.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10172018
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
4.98 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B-3B-2B 481
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN CR-2B 238
-0.48 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PR 57
Total WAA=16.00 PA=3921 WinPct=0.578

This is considered Tier 1 but just barely.  The Tier 1/2 boundary is +15.36 which is based upon a distribution of lineups from all 30 teams.

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10162018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
2.12 Steve_Pearce_BOS 1B-DH-LF 251
-1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH 502
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
-2.10 Christian_Vazquez_BOS CR 269
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
Total WAA=26.33 PA=4595 WinPct=0.610

This far exceeds the Tier 1/2 boundary and since simulations use deltas to determine differences, Boston’s lineup against Clayton Kershaw and LAN relief is greater than Dodgers barely Tier 1 lineup against a higher rated pitcher in Chris Sale.  This is why TC simulation sees the game more even steven than the blowout predicted by the market.

LAN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 LAN 16.00
SP 1 Walker_Buehler_LAN 4.64
SP 3 Rich_Hill_LAN 1.26
SP 1 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 5.02
SP 1 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 4.03
RP 2 LAN 7.64

Dodgers are showing their four starters while Boston below only shows 3.  The missing Boston player might be their fourth starter because it’s hard to make it through a seven game series with only 3 starters.

BOS Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 1 BOS 22.60
SP 3 Rick_Porcello_BOS -0.73
SP 3 David_Price_BOS 2.21
SP 1 Chris_Sale_BOS 7.41
RP 3 BOS 1.68

Lineups in tier data took a different snapshot than the listed lineup shown above.  All lineups vary a little from day to day.  Boston relief also took a big hit making them close to the Tier 3/4 border which is at WAA=0 for all 30 teams.

Note: Relief distributions are taken for the other 28 teams from end of August rosters using end of year data for each player.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+096+ 2.83 Dylan_Floro_TOT PITCH
+192+ 1.76 Kenley_Jansen_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.57 Pedro_Baez_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 1.39 Alex_Wood_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.78 Kenta_Maeda_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.59 Scott_Alexander_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.38 Julio_Urias_LAN PITCH
-186- -1.62 Ryan_Madson_TOT PITCH
Total 7.68

The Tier 2/3 border for relief is +6.26 so LAN is has a relief staff almost a complete tier above Boston.  This will be true for the entire series.

BOS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+163+ 1.99 Craig_Kimbrel_BOS PITCH
+168+ 1.97 Ryan_Brasier_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Eduardo_Rodriguez_BOS PITCH
XXXXX 0.67 Matt_Barnes_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Heath_Hembree_BOS PITCH
XXXXX -0.40 Joe_Kelly_BOS PITCH
-025- -3.38 Drew_Pomeranz_BOS PITCH
Total 1.67

I double checked this and Drew Pomeranz appears to be on the playoff roster.  Not sure why.  There maybe matchup considerations with Dodger hitting that we don’t know about.   There must be a good reason — including our source for rosters made a mistake.  We’ll see.

That is all for showing playoff roster information.  Except for lineups the above won’t change much.  The rest of the world series reports will only show the handicapping with commentary if necessary.

World Series Game 1

DATE 10_27 8:05_PM Oct_27_14:01:03 NYN KCA
LINEAWAY NYN -105 -107
STARTAWAY 5.31 Matt_Harvey_NYN
LINEHOME KCA -105 -103
STARTHOME 1.83 Edinson_Volquez_KCA

I don’t understand how KCA beat Toronto
or how they beat Anaheim last season to
get to the WS. There is something they
are doing that is not being measured.

The Ouija board has absolutely no idea
who to pick in this. NYN has a much
better starter so that wipes out home
field advantage for KCA so the bet
is pretty much even steven, we don’t
know.

Let’s look at status lines

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
34.9 32.9 724 641 95 67 12.3 0.9 KCA

Very balanced BAT and PITCH for the year.
UR= +12.3 so KCA doesn’t make many bad
errors.

-3.1 75.0 683 613 90 72 -3.7 -2.1 NYN

Mets a PITCHing team but as we saw with the
Cubs their current lineup is much better than
almost average, -3.1, their season long
measurement.

Here are lineups from their last games.

Royals
DATE 10232015
-2.35 Alcides_Escobar_KCA SS
1.53 Ben_Zobrist_TOT 2B
4.24 Lorenzo_Cain_KCA CF
4.68 Eric_Hosmer_KCA 1B
4.89 Kendrys_Morales_KCA DH
2.12 Mike_Moustakas_KCA 3B
0.06 Salvador_Perez_KCA C
-0.48 Alex_Gordon_KCA LF
-1.91 Alex_Rios_KCA RF
TOTAL 12.79

Mets
DATE 10212015
1.99 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF
0.32 David_Wright_NYN 3B
1.20 Daniel_Murphy_NYN 2B
6.05 Yoenis_Cespedes_TOT CF
1.99 Lucas_Duda_NYN 1B
1.41 Travis_d’Arnaud_NYN C
1.43 Michael_Conforto_NYN LF
0.27 Wilmer_Flores_NYN SS
0.32 Steven_Matz_NYN P
TOTAL 14.97

The Mets put together quite an impressive
lineup throughout the year which is why the
Cubs are home watching this on TV. KCA
however shut down Toronto who had by far the
best hitting squad in MLB so we’ll see
if they have similar success with the Mets.

On paper the Mets should win this series but
unfortunately for the Mets and Blue Jays, the
only numbers that count are runs and wins in
the next seven or so games.