Tag Archives: world series

World Series Game 7

Another World Series Game 7.  Let’s see what this matchup looks like.

WAS HOU 10_30_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.444 0.401 90 3.37 3.26 0.32
HOU 52 0.574 0.599 104 4.00 3.82 3.32

The R ( Relief ) column is always the same for each team throughout a playoff series because it’s based upon their published roster which shouldn’t change.  Lineups ( L ) are usually around the same.  S ( Starters ) is the only column that deviates game to game.

TC Sim has Houston favored more than Vegas today.  The Vegas line started out at 0.600 in favor of HOU and has been moving towards WAS.  ELO has HOU favored 52% which is close to where they had them favored yesterday.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.82

Greinke had a better regular season than Scherzer.  Both these pitchers have post season experience.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.34 89.3 3.73 14 6 Max_Scherzer_TOT PITCH  post season
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH  post season

Scherzer is around even steven and Greinke is very under water for all post seasons not including 2019.  Greinke pitched well in game 3 however.  Vegas bettors might know about the above.  At even steven, playoff Max Scherzer pitches well below regular season Max Scherzer.  HOU has home field advantage and this is a desperation game for both teams.

TC Sim relies solely on regular season performance.  Here are lineups from yesterday as an FYI.  They shouldn’t be much different than tonight.  This will be the last game of the 2019 baseball season.

WAS Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
Total 21.90 TIER=3.37

HOU Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00

World Series Game 6

World Series Game 6 tonight in Houston.  Houston up 3-2 so Washington is on the ropes.

WAS HOU 10_29_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.385 0.390 101 3.37 2.95 0.32
HOU 52 0.636 0.610 96 4.00 4.00 3.32

TC Sim and Vegas in agreement once again.  ELO has Houston favored at 53% so the WAS line would be another betting opportunity for them  Desperation for WAS is highest it can be.  Houston ahead in L, S, and R categories and have home field advantage.  Away teams  prevailed so far in each game this series.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Strasburg and Verlander face each other once again.  Each pitcher about tied in post season ranking for all seasons up to and including 2018.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH post season
+033+ 2.50 189.0 3.00 29 4 Justin_Verlander_TOT PITCH post season

We have current lineups today.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
Total 21.90 TIER=3.37

WAS fielded a close to Tier 4.00 in games 1 and 2.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00

And Houston fields yet another maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup.

That’s all for today and could be that’s all for the 2019 baseball season tonight.  After the season is over we’ll do a Cubs and White Sox post mortem showing how their 2019 players fared as well as all their prospects in minor leagues.  Until then ….

World Series Game 5

World Series Game 5 tonight in DC.  Looks like HOU evened up this series and regained home field advantage.  Let’s look at tonight’s game.

HOU WAS 10_27_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.600 0.615 102 4.00 4.00 3.32
WAS 24 0.417 0.385 92 2.74 3.26 0.32

Vegas and TC Sim almost in complete agreement.  ELO has Houston favored by only 52% which means the WAS line could be another betting opportunity for that system.  Lineup numbers taken from yesterday.  HOU is ahead in L , S , and R.  Washington needs to win tonight or they’re in trouble.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26

Both top tier pitchers in regular season.  Here are their post season numbers.

Post Season

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.10 29.0 3.72 5 2 Gerrit_Cole_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.34 89.3 3.73 14 6 Max_Scherzer_TOT PITCH

Both hovering around average for post season.  Average post season ERA is much lower than regular season ERA for obvious reasons.  Both ERAs above eerily similar however.

Might update when lineups become available but they shouldn’t be much different than yesterday.

HOU Lineup Today

no lineup for HOU

WAS Lineup Today

no lineup for WAS

World Series Game 1

World Series Game 1 tonight in Houston.

Playoff Horse Race — The End

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 70.6 31.5 26.7 12.4 14.4
WAS 24 51.0 24.9 20.9 5.2 18.4

This is the final edition of playoff horse race for 2019.  Looks like HOU is better in each category.  Both teams have very positive UR which means good fielding.   There probably won’t be many stupid errors that lose a game but strange things sometimes happen in a World Series however.

WAS HOU 10_22_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.364 0.385 106 3.98 3.26 0.32
HOU 52 0.661 0.615 93 4.00 4.00 3.32

Vegas has Houston favored more than TC Sim but not by much.  The WAS line is pretty close and will be closer if home field advantage was taken into account.  Right now home field hasn’t been incorporated into TC Sim and won’t be until there is a sold proof as to how it should be done.

HOU leads in WAA, and R.  Starters and Lineups almost equal.  Washington has weak relief which will haunt them every game this series.  WAS lack of relief is compensated by a set of good starters which will be shown again in detail tomorrow.  WAS Lineup isn’t as powerful.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00

Both pitchers hover around average in post season which is below average for top tier MLB pitchers.

Both Houston and Yankees featured only 3 starters in their roster.  The last time that was done in a 7 game series was the 2009 Yankees who did this in both ALCS and WS.  ALCS Game 6 turned into a reliever smorgasbord for both teams because each team had only 3 starters.

Rosters are out and here are starting rotations for each team.

WAS Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

HOU Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+001+ 9.70 Justin_Verlander_HOU 223.0
+002+ 9.64 Gerrit_Cole_HOU 212.3
+009+ 7.35 Zack_Greinke_HOU 208.7
Total 26.69 0.686

Houston is going with 3 starters again.  Interesting that those three starters are valued more than all four on Washington.  Only need four games to win.  Lineups coming later and relief rosters will be shown tomorrow.  Until then ….’

Update: Lineups are in.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
Total 25.34 TIER=3.98

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
-133- -2.08 Martin_Maldonado_HOU CR 374
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 27.34 TIER=4.00

Too very equal lineups.   Nationals have a very improved lineup compared to their NLCS lineups; most likely due to DH being used in Houston. Lineups face starters however to score runs — not opposing lineups.

2018 World Series Report Part 5

With Boston up 3-1 this could be the last World Series report until 2019.

DATE 10_28_8:15_PM BOS LAN

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.465 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.556 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.481 BOS 4.45 runs
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.519 LAN 4.65 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS LAN
Tier Combo 111 89
Home Field 106 92

Kershaw last pitched against Chris Sale in Boston for Game 1 so this match up is different.  Lines about the same as yesterday but TC Simulation has Dodgers favored at 0.519 break even probability.  This lowers Expected Value for Boston to 111 on a 100 risk which is close to their basic Home Field disadvantage Expected Value.

This could be the last game of the season.  If not, part 6 will be forthcoming.

Update:  It looks like Nate Silver’s model agrees.  Here’s a snapshot in case that link gets broken.

natesilver

Update2: I’m an idiot again! It might be dyslexia but read the above table opposite of what it says. Nate had BOS at 52%.  TC Simulation had Dodgers at 52%.  Nate’s model would have generated an Expected Value for Boston at 120 on a 100 bet making it a betting opportunity.  Since we’re from the future it would have been a successful betting opportunity.  Home Field Expected Value would still be 106 however and how that factors into all of this is still a work in progress.

More historical analysis between vegas lines, TC simulation, and The above coming soon in the off season ( like now ).  This will start with 2011 – 2017.  Current year event files are needed for this analysis and retrosheet.org usually releases them mid December some time.   </ end of update>