Top Cubs 8/8/2016

It was 8/8/88 when the Cubs turned on
lights at Wrigley Field only to have a
giant thunderstorm roll through as the
Gods were angry that night. The last week
has been very very good for the Cubs.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
——————————–
63.1 91.8 529 365 63 41 7.4 1.7 CHN One week ago
61.7 107.7 553 373 68 41 7.8 2.8 CHN Today

BAT almost exactly average, PITCH way up.
The Cubs went +5 in the last week on
PITCHing and BATs that didn’t suck.
UR is up again at +7.8 which is tied for
fifth in MLB surprisingly with NYA who has
Starlin Castro at SS. Cubs are also
up in lucky runs like when they scored
on those wild pitches. MLB counts lucky
runs equally with all other kind of runs.

Here are Cubs in top 200 as of today.

+004+ 5.69 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+010+ 5.19 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+018+ 4.58 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+019+ 4.47 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+033+ 3.88 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+058+ 3.07 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+086+ 2.50 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF-LF
+090+ 2.42 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+142+ 1.83 Aroldis_Chapman_TOT PITCH
+155+ 1.74 Addison_Russell_CHN SS
+173+ 1.60 Travis_Wood_CHN PITCH
+180+ 1.55 John_Lackey_CHN PITCH
+188+ 1.49 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF

Hendricks is #4 in MLB both batters and pitchers.
Let’s see who is in his neighborhood.

+001+ 6.76 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN PITCH
+002+ 6.55 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH
+003+ 6.07 Josh_Donaldson_TOR 3B-DH
+004+ 5.69 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+005+ 5.67 Mike_Trout_ANA CF

It will be a rough slog for Hendricks to
win a Cy Young with those two way above
him. For some reason AL pitchers really suck
this season which is unusual. AL’s highest
pitcher is #22 Michael Fulmer of DET.

Blast from the Past — 2015
—————————-
Let’s look at this day last year again.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/08/2015
-25.0 43.2 430 413 61 48 -0.6 -0.7 CHN
——————————–
+020+ 4.64 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+045+ 3.09 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
+062+ 2.67 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+077+ 2.44 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+094+ 2.25 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN C
+116+ 1.99 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+126+ 1.89 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+141+ 1.62 Justin_Grimm_CHN PITCH
+174+ 1.30 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH

The team starts to gel right now and Schwarber
is on a rocket ship ranked #94 this late in
the season with only 100 plate appearances.
CHN’s BAT is still under water but PITCH is good.
This year everything is better even with
Albert Pujols err Kyle Schwarber sitting this
season out.

And while we’re at it, here’s 2008

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/08/2008
82.8 52.1 618 474 70 46 5.5 3.7 CHN
——————————–
+016+ 4.93 Carlos_Zambrano_CHN PITCH
+023+ 4.49 Ryan_Dempster_CHN PITCH
+042+ 3.82 Alfonso_Soriano_CHN OF
+048+ 3.72 Mark_DeRosa_CHN SS
+053+ 3.67 Aramis_Ramirez_CHN 3B
+084+ 2.73 Derrek_Lee_CHN 1B
XXXXX 2.35 Jim_Edmonds_CHN CF
+110+ 2.27 Reed_Johnson_CHN OF
+155+ 1.76 Carlos_Marmol_CHN PITCH
+162+ 1.70 Mike_Fontenot_CHN 2B

Edmonds rank is XXXXX because he was traded
to the Cubs from SDN where he started the
season at -1.3. He was +2.35 for the Cubs.
Since we don’t hand out mulligans here he falls
out of top 200 adding the two together. He
played very very well for the Cubs after coming
over.

The Cubs that year were opposite of this
year in they had better BAT than PITCH back
on this day, the 20th anniversary of lights
being turned on at Wrigley Field angering
the Gods.

What were the Cubs doing on 8/8/88???

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/08/1988
-37.0 24.0 431 440 53 56 4.5 -0.4 CHN
——————————–
+037+ 3.61 Greg_Maddux_CHN PITCH
+110+ 1.72 Andre_Dawson_CHN X
+130+ 1.53 Al_Nipper_CHN PITCH
+132+ 1.53 Jamie_Moyer_CHN PITCH

This should provide some perspective on today’s
Cubs and how much they have improved.
Only 4 guys in top 200 back then.

Top Cubs as of 8/1/2016

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
——————————–
58.6 75.6 460 321 53 35 3.1 1.7 CHN All Star Break
63.1 91.8 529 365 63 41 7.4 1.7 CHN Today

They went 10-6 since the Prom^H^H^H^H
All Star break mostly due to PITCHing
but BAT is up too. UR is also up from
3.1 to 7.4 which is very good. UR
is unearned runs above average so a
positive means the Cubs aren’t committing
errors that lead to runs. Cubs are
around 7th best out of 30 teams in that
category.

Here are Cubs in top 200. There are
once again 15 players.

+006+ 5.10 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+011+ 4.75 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+016+ 4.56 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+018+ 4.35 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+038+ 3.57 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+082+ 2.54 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF-LF
+092+ 2.42 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+101+ 2.31 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+153+ 1.66 Addison_Russell_CHN SS
+181+ 1.47 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+184+ 1.45 Travis_Wood_CHN PITCH
+185+ 1.43 John_Lackey_CHN PITCH

The weighting factor in second column for
all CHN players must add to equal 22, their team
WAA=W-L. Unfortunately the Cubs still have
one guy in bottom 200 putting a drag on the
lineup.

-117- -1.66 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF

Heyward is improving. If he can pull himself
back to 0 it will help the Cubs win a lot
the next few months.

Blast from the Past — 1935
—————————

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/01/1935
73.4 62.7 551 411 62 37 3.1 0.8 CHN

Their real WAA=W-L=62-37= +25 so they’re
3 better than the Cubs today. The last
time I did this in May they were a 0.500
team. While today’s Cubs have been playing
0.500 ball since then, the 1935 Cubs were
on a rocket ship these last few months.

Here are top Cubs this day 1935.
(top 100 then is like top 200 today
because there were half as many teams)
——————————–
+028+ 3.63 Bill_Lee_CHN PITCH
+030+ 3.55 Gabby_Hartnett_CHN CR
+035+ 3.21 Charlie_Root_CHN PITCH
+039+ 3.04 Chuck_Klein_CHN OF-RF
+041+ 2.88 Larry_French_CHN PITCH
+046+ 2.52 Roy_Henshaw_CHN PITCH
+048+ 2.29 Augie_Galan_CHN LF-OF
+049+ 2.25 Frank_Demaree_CHN OF-CF-RF
+053+ 2.14 Lon_Warneke_CHN PITCH
+059+ 1.97 Phil_Cavarretta_CHN 1B
+063+ 1.91 Ken_O’Dea_CHN CR
+072+ 1.76 Freddy_Lindstrom_CHN 12.6
+092+ 1.16 Stan_Hack_CHN 3B
+101+ 1.01 Billy_Herman_CHN 2B

WAAs in second column can be directly
compared to the current Cubs. Gabby Harnett
at 3.55 is at Jon Lester’s value today. They
didn’t have a lot of top tier player, they
had a lot of middle good players and not
many bad players.

Jay Bruce to Mets

On Monday, August 1, 2016 at 11:40:36 AM UTC-5, The old geezer wrote:
> Jay Bruce to the Mutts!

First things first.  Who TF is Jay Bruce?

2008 0.8 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF-CF-LF XXXXX
2009 1.4 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +223+
2010 2.5 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +126+
2011 4.1 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +056+
2012 4.9 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +029+
2013 5.5 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +015+
2014 2.1 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +149+
2015 1.9 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +164+
2016 4.9 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +009+
Total = 28.1

He’s a very very good player and this
year he’s #9 in MLB.  He’s at Bryant/Rizzo
level right now.  Before you start with
the sky is falling, the Mets batting
completely sucks except when they play
the Cubs this season.  Let’s look at the
Mets shall we?

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
-77.4 86.8 381 372 54 50 5.4 -5.8 NYN

As you can see at -77 BAT, that sucks.
Their real WAA=W-L= +4 so they’re barely
treading water but it looks like they
still want to make a run for it.  With
that PITCHing they probably can if they
improve hitting.  Bruce will be a huge help.

The Mets did this last season when they
acquired Cespedes.  Here’s a recent lineup.

GAME COL NYN July_30_2016 7:10_PM
———————————-
-2.23 Curtis_Granderson_NYN 413 RF
-0.84 Neil_Walker_NYN 370 2B
2.16 Yoenis_Cespedes_NYN 367 LF
-0.10 Wilmer_Flores_NYN 217 3B
-2.16 Asdrubal_Cabrera_NYN 398 SS
-1.39 Travis_d’Arnaud_NYN 141 C
0.00 Justin_Ruggiano NO_ENTRY CF
-1.99 Kelly_Johnson_TOT 210 1B
-0.55 Bartolo_Colon_NYN 39 P
TOTAL= -6.93

Granderson is having a very bad year and he’s leading
off for some reason.  By replacing Granderson with
Bruce -2.25 goes off the books and +4.9 WAA goes on
the books.  Combined Mets will add +7.15 value to their
lineup bringing it to even steven.

The Mets could get into the playoffs through the back
door with this move.

Cubs record against bad pitchers

After the Cubs lost to Shields I started to
wonder their record when playing against
bad starting pitchers.  One thing led to
another and I got this report.

Second column WAA of opposing starting pitcher
Third score, forth, fifth are away/home
and then date and then whether the Cubs
lost or won.  The final record is the total
for this season.

score -1.64 2-4 CHN MIL 2016-05-17-1 LOSE
score -3.40 8-1 CHN SFN 2016-05-20-1 WIN
score -2.25 3-5 CHN SFN 2016-05-21-1 LOSE
score -2.29 3-4 CHN SLN 2016-05-23-1 LOSE
score -1.24 5-0 LAN CHN 2016-05-31-1 LOSE
score -1.18 3-5 ARI CHN 2016-06-04-1 WIN
score -1.68 3-2 ARI CHN 2016-06-05-1 LOSE
score -2.46 6-4 CHN PHI 2016-06-06-1 WIN
score -1.24 1-5 CHN ATL 2016-06-10-1 LOSE
score -1.28 0-6 PIT CHN 2016-06-17-1 WIN
score -1.13 4-3 SLN CHN 2016-06-21-1 LOSE
score -2.04 2-4 CHN MIA 2016-06-23-1 LOSE
score -1.83 4-10 CIN CHN 2016-07-04-1 WIN
score -2.33 4-8 CHN PIT 2016-07-08-1 LOSE
score -2.21 0-3 CHN CHA 2016-07-26-1 LOSE
score TOTAL WIN=5  LOSE=10  WinPct=0.333

That’s pretty bad.  The pattern I had noticed
to write the code to do this has been proven
true.  The Cubs have had difficult
times with opposing pitchers who currently
suck at game time.

I need to run numbers league wide because
it’s possible that current bad pitchers
win more often than they should because
they’re desperate.

2015 totals were

score TOTAL WIN=13  LOSE=12  WinPct=0.520

At 0.520 the Cubs had a lower record playing
against bad pitching last season too but not
as bad as this season so far.

Mets Cubs Analysis 7/18/2016

Here we ago again.  I did this 2 1/2 weeks ago
at the start of the last series in New York
when the Cubs got swept.  Here’s what the Ouija
board has to say about today’s game.

DATE 07_18 7:05_PM Jul_18_10:02 NYN CHN
LINEAWAY NYN +156 +140
STARTAWAY 1.97 Steven_Matz_NYN
LINEHOME CHN -166 -150
STARTHOME 3.09 Jon_Lester_CHN

CHN is -150 and it started at -166 so the line
is moving away from CHN.  Matz vs. Lester is
almost exactly what Matz vs. Lackey was
on June 30 except Cubs now have home field
advantage.  Here are the lines on June 30.

DATE 06_30 7:10_PM Jun_30_10:06 CHN NYN
LINEAWAY CHN -109 -125
STARTAWAY 2.12 John_Lackey_CHN
LINEHOME NYN -101 +115
STARTHOME 1.74 Steven_Matz_NYN

Normally an away team will be +118 and a
home team should be -118 with no other
knowledge of the two teams.  The delta
of -150 to -118 is -32 which are the
points above home field advantage the
Cubs are getting right now.

On June 30 the delta from +118 to -125
is -53.  I’m not sure comparing these
two numbers is mathematically legal
but it seems CHN may have lost some
but not a lot of luster these last
2 1/2 weeks.

Let’s look at NYN status lines

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID  6/30/2016
-69.2 70.7 276 272 40 37 7.2 -4.7 NYN

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID  Today
-60.4 80.8 342 322 48 42 4.9 -5.2 NYN

Their PITCH got better, their BAT got better and their
real WAA=W-L=48-42= +6 so they’re up 3 in that category.

+012+ 4.20 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN PITCH
+028+ 3.57 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH
+053+ 2.81 Bartolo_Colon_NYN PITCH
+086+ 2.31 Yoenis_Cespedes_NYN CF-LF
+091+ 2.18 Addison_Reed_NYN PITCH
+106+ 1.97 Steven_Matz_NYN PITCH

They have 5 guys now in top 100 compared to only
3 on 6/30.  If Matz pitches well they’ll have 6
guys in top 100.  Hopefully the Cubs can drop him
down a bunch of notches today.

NYN is improving and the Ouija board shows that.

That is all for now.  Now that we’re getting late
in the season I’ll need to show lineup values because
as we saw last year, lineups and relief staffs
can be vastly different than from their yearly
stat totals indicate.