Cubs in top ten as of 9/13/2016

+001+ 8.84 Nolan_Arenado_COL 3B
+002+ 8.59 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+003+ 7.22 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN PITCH
+004+ 6.87 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+005+ 6.85 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF
+006+ 6.78 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+007+ 6.70 Edwin_Encarnacion_TOR DH-1B
+008+ 6.70 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN PITCH
+009+ 6.66 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH
+010+ 6.45 Josh_Donaldson_TOR 3B-DH

I have been doing this for three years now and have seen quite a few top tens in the
dataset that goes back to 1900. Rarely does a team field three players this late in the
season. The Cubs never have.

Here are Hendricks’ and Lester’s WAR

+036+ 4.6 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+050+ 4.2 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH

No love for either of these pitchers with WAR. Even this guy ranks higher.

+011+ 6.0 Adam_Eaton_CHA RF-CF

Here is Arrieta this day in 2015

+001+ 11.19 Zack_Greinke_LAN PITCH
+002+ 9.70 Josh_Donaldson_TOR C
+003+ 9.11 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH

The competition was a bit stiffer last year. Arrieta was a little better than Hendricks this time last season.

Here’s a year when the Yankees and Giants put three guys in the top ten.

+001+ 19.28 Lou_Gehrig_NYA 1B
+002+ 17.35 Babe_Ruth_NYA OF-RF-LF
+003+ 14.09 Lefty_Grove_OAK PITCH
+004+ 12.45 Earl_Averill_CLE CF-OF
+005+ 10.65 Bill_Walker_SFN PITCH
+006+ 10.39 Al_Simmons_OAK OF-LF
+007+ 9.45 Ben_Chapman_NYA OF-LF-RF-2B
+008+ 8.76 Chuck_Klein_PHI OF-LF-RF-CF
+009+ 8.76 Carl_Hubbell_SFN PITCH
+010+ 8.04 Mel_Ott_SFN OF-CF-RF

Ironically both teams finished second proving MLB doesn’t hand out WS trophies for most guys in top ten. It was the Cardinals (SLN) who beat the As (OAK) in the WS that year.

The above numbers are off the charts and will probably never be reached in modern day baseball.

Top Cubs 8/28/2016

Here are current and previous status lines.
I haven’t done this in awhile.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
———————————
61.7 107.7 553 373 68 41 7.8 2.8 CHN 8/8/2016
73.1 133.8 655 437 82 46 8.0 3.1 CHN As of yesterday
——————————–

Can’t complain about anything going 14-5.
Both PITCH and BAT are up. The Cubs are
way way in first for PITCH. Nationals are
second with +83, 50 runs behind Cubs.
UR is very good at +8.0. We can only hope they
keep this up through the playoffs because MLB
does not hand out trophies for best record.
Maddon can keep the guys rested for September
but not too rested.

Here are Cubs in top 200

+002+ 7.25 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+004+ 7.06 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+012+ 5.90 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+019+ 4.93 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+030+ 4.45 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+073+ 3.15 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+083+ 3.00 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF-LF
+092+ 2.83 John_Lackey_CHN PITCH
+102+ 2.75 Addison_Russell_CHN SS
+112+ 2.52 Aroldis_Chapman_TOT PITCH
+160+ 1.85 Trevor_Cahill_CHN PITCH
+173+ 1.74 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH

Bryant is almost #1. Russell has been climbing
these last few weeks and almost in top 100 again.
What an improvement over this guy

XXXXX -0.53 Starlin_Castro_NYA 2B

Although to Starlin’s credit he is out of the bottom
200 and has improved these last few months. He could
make even steven by end of year.

Here are the top 5 in MLB right now.

+001+ 7.92 Nolan_Arenado_COL 3B
+002+ 7.25 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+003+ 7.20 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN PITCH
+004+ 7.06 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+005+ 6.76 Daniel_Murphy_WAS 2B-1B

The intelligentsia that make up MVP voters who
continuously tout WAR and OPS as gospel
will never allow a Colorado hitter to be MVP
because they think their baseball stadium allows
all those hits and runs. Thus,
right now Kris Bryant is not just your NL MVP,
He is top dog MLB MVP of both pitchers and batters!

There still is a month to play though and preparing
for the playoffs only matters.

Too lazy to do blast from the past.

Top Cubs 8/8/2016

It was 8/8/88 when the Cubs turned on
lights at Wrigley Field only to have a
giant thunderstorm roll through as the
Gods were angry that night. The last week
has been very very good for the Cubs.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
——————————–
63.1 91.8 529 365 63 41 7.4 1.7 CHN One week ago
61.7 107.7 553 373 68 41 7.8 2.8 CHN Today

BAT almost exactly average, PITCH way up.
The Cubs went +5 in the last week on
PITCHing and BATs that didn’t suck.
UR is up again at +7.8 which is tied for
fifth in MLB surprisingly with NYA who has
Starlin Castro at SS. Cubs are also
up in lucky runs like when they scored
on those wild pitches. MLB counts lucky
runs equally with all other kind of runs.

Here are Cubs in top 200 as of today.

+004+ 5.69 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+010+ 5.19 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+018+ 4.58 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+019+ 4.47 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+033+ 3.88 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+058+ 3.07 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+086+ 2.50 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF-LF
+090+ 2.42 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+142+ 1.83 Aroldis_Chapman_TOT PITCH
+155+ 1.74 Addison_Russell_CHN SS
+173+ 1.60 Travis_Wood_CHN PITCH
+180+ 1.55 John_Lackey_CHN PITCH
+188+ 1.49 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF

Hendricks is #4 in MLB both batters and pitchers.
Let’s see who is in his neighborhood.

+001+ 6.76 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN PITCH
+002+ 6.55 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH
+003+ 6.07 Josh_Donaldson_TOR 3B-DH
+004+ 5.69 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+005+ 5.67 Mike_Trout_ANA CF

It will be a rough slog for Hendricks to
win a Cy Young with those two way above
him. For some reason AL pitchers really suck
this season which is unusual. AL’s highest
pitcher is #22 Michael Fulmer of DET.

Blast from the Past — 2015
—————————-
Let’s look at this day last year again.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/08/2015
-25.0 43.2 430 413 61 48 -0.6 -0.7 CHN
——————————–
+020+ 4.64 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+045+ 3.09 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
+062+ 2.67 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+077+ 2.44 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+094+ 2.25 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN C
+116+ 1.99 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+126+ 1.89 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+141+ 1.62 Justin_Grimm_CHN PITCH
+174+ 1.30 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH

The team starts to gel right now and Schwarber
is on a rocket ship ranked #94 this late in
the season with only 100 plate appearances.
CHN’s BAT is still under water but PITCH is good.
This year everything is better even with
Albert Pujols err Kyle Schwarber sitting this
season out.

And while we’re at it, here’s 2008

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/08/2008
82.8 52.1 618 474 70 46 5.5 3.7 CHN
——————————–
+016+ 4.93 Carlos_Zambrano_CHN PITCH
+023+ 4.49 Ryan_Dempster_CHN PITCH
+042+ 3.82 Alfonso_Soriano_CHN OF
+048+ 3.72 Mark_DeRosa_CHN SS
+053+ 3.67 Aramis_Ramirez_CHN 3B
+084+ 2.73 Derrek_Lee_CHN 1B
XXXXX 2.35 Jim_Edmonds_CHN CF
+110+ 2.27 Reed_Johnson_CHN OF
+155+ 1.76 Carlos_Marmol_CHN PITCH
+162+ 1.70 Mike_Fontenot_CHN 2B

Edmonds rank is XXXXX because he was traded
to the Cubs from SDN where he started the
season at -1.3. He was +2.35 for the Cubs.
Since we don’t hand out mulligans here he falls
out of top 200 adding the two together. He
played very very well for the Cubs after coming
over.

The Cubs that year were opposite of this
year in they had better BAT than PITCH back
on this day, the 20th anniversary of lights
being turned on at Wrigley Field angering
the Gods.

What were the Cubs doing on 8/8/88???

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/08/1988
-37.0 24.0 431 440 53 56 4.5 -0.4 CHN
——————————–
+037+ 3.61 Greg_Maddux_CHN PITCH
+110+ 1.72 Andre_Dawson_CHN X
+130+ 1.53 Al_Nipper_CHN PITCH
+132+ 1.53 Jamie_Moyer_CHN PITCH

This should provide some perspective on today’s
Cubs and how much they have improved.
Only 4 guys in top 200 back then.

Top Cubs as of 8/1/2016

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
——————————–
58.6 75.6 460 321 53 35 3.1 1.7 CHN All Star Break
63.1 91.8 529 365 63 41 7.4 1.7 CHN Today

They went 10-6 since the Prom^H^H^H^H
All Star break mostly due to PITCHing
but BAT is up too. UR is also up from
3.1 to 7.4 which is very good. UR
is unearned runs above average so a
positive means the Cubs aren’t committing
errors that lead to runs. Cubs are
around 7th best out of 30 teams in that
category.

Here are Cubs in top 200. There are
once again 15 players.

+006+ 5.10 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF
+011+ 4.75 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+016+ 4.56 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+018+ 4.35 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+038+ 3.57 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+082+ 2.54 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF-LF
+092+ 2.42 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+101+ 2.31 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+153+ 1.66 Addison_Russell_CHN SS
+181+ 1.47 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+184+ 1.45 Travis_Wood_CHN PITCH
+185+ 1.43 John_Lackey_CHN PITCH

The weighting factor in second column for
all CHN players must add to equal 22, their team
WAA=W-L. Unfortunately the Cubs still have
one guy in bottom 200 putting a drag on the
lineup.

-117- -1.66 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF

Heyward is improving. If he can pull himself
back to 0 it will help the Cubs win a lot
the next few months.

Blast from the Past — 1935
—————————

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 08/01/1935
73.4 62.7 551 411 62 37 3.1 0.8 CHN

Their real WAA=W-L=62-37= +25 so they’re
3 better than the Cubs today. The last
time I did this in May they were a 0.500
team. While today’s Cubs have been playing
0.500 ball since then, the 1935 Cubs were
on a rocket ship these last few months.

Here are top Cubs this day 1935.
(top 100 then is like top 200 today
because there were half as many teams)
——————————–
+028+ 3.63 Bill_Lee_CHN PITCH
+030+ 3.55 Gabby_Hartnett_CHN CR
+035+ 3.21 Charlie_Root_CHN PITCH
+039+ 3.04 Chuck_Klein_CHN OF-RF
+041+ 2.88 Larry_French_CHN PITCH
+046+ 2.52 Roy_Henshaw_CHN PITCH
+048+ 2.29 Augie_Galan_CHN LF-OF
+049+ 2.25 Frank_Demaree_CHN OF-CF-RF
+053+ 2.14 Lon_Warneke_CHN PITCH
+059+ 1.97 Phil_Cavarretta_CHN 1B
+063+ 1.91 Ken_O’Dea_CHN CR
+072+ 1.76 Freddy_Lindstrom_CHN 12.6
+092+ 1.16 Stan_Hack_CHN 3B
+101+ 1.01 Billy_Herman_CHN 2B

WAAs in second column can be directly
compared to the current Cubs. Gabby Harnett
at 3.55 is at Jon Lester’s value today. They
didn’t have a lot of top tier player, they
had a lot of middle good players and not
many bad players.

Jay Bruce to Mets

On Monday, August 1, 2016 at 11:40:36 AM UTC-5, The old geezer wrote:
> Jay Bruce to the Mutts!

First things first.  Who TF is Jay Bruce?

2008 0.8 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF-CF-LF XXXXX
2009 1.4 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +223+
2010 2.5 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +126+
2011 4.1 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +056+
2012 4.9 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +029+
2013 5.5 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +015+
2014 2.1 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +149+
2015 1.9 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +164+
2016 4.9 Jay_Bruce_CIN RF +009+
Total = 28.1

He’s a very very good player and this
year he’s #9 in MLB.  He’s at Bryant/Rizzo
level right now.  Before you start with
the sky is falling, the Mets batting
completely sucks except when they play
the Cubs this season.  Let’s look at the
Mets shall we?

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
-77.4 86.8 381 372 54 50 5.4 -5.8 NYN

As you can see at -77 BAT, that sucks.
Their real WAA=W-L= +4 so they’re barely
treading water but it looks like they
still want to make a run for it.  With
that PITCHing they probably can if they
improve hitting.  Bruce will be a huge help.

The Mets did this last season when they
acquired Cespedes.  Here’s a recent lineup.

GAME COL NYN July_30_2016 7:10_PM
———————————-
-2.23 Curtis_Granderson_NYN 413 RF
-0.84 Neil_Walker_NYN 370 2B
2.16 Yoenis_Cespedes_NYN 367 LF
-0.10 Wilmer_Flores_NYN 217 3B
-2.16 Asdrubal_Cabrera_NYN 398 SS
-1.39 Travis_d’Arnaud_NYN 141 C
0.00 Justin_Ruggiano NO_ENTRY CF
-1.99 Kelly_Johnson_TOT 210 1B
-0.55 Bartolo_Colon_NYN 39 P
TOTAL= -6.93

Granderson is having a very bad year and he’s leading
off for some reason.  By replacing Granderson with
Bruce -2.25 goes off the books and +4.9 WAA goes on
the books.  Combined Mets will add +7.15 value to their
lineup bringing it to even steven.

The Mets could get into the playoffs through the back
door with this move.