Today we’ll cover Game 2 of the 1919 World Series between the White Sox and Reds. Reds had a better seasonal record meaning they had home field advantage for the series. The first two games were played in Cincinnati. Reds already won the first game which was covered in Part 2.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | X | 4 |
The formatting of game line scores is a work in progress. The above shows White Sox lost Game 2 4-2 with Reds scoring 3 in the fourth which was all they needed to win this.
Below are the same handicapping tables we saw throughout the 2019 regular season. These tables are still an off season work in progress. The code to process the data flow into these tables is getting better.
CHA CIN 191910020
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 36 | x | X | X | 5.00 | 1.33 | -2.34 |
| CIN | 52 | x | X | X | 0.74 | 3.03 | 1.93 |
Reds had much better team WAA than the White Sox for the year 1919. Vegas, TC Sim, and Expected Value (EV) columns are blanked. We don’t know the Vegas odds and in 1919 the Mafia was Vegas, the same people who paid to fix this series.
The above shows White Sox with a max tier lineup, far better than what the Reds put up. We saw in Team Status in Parts 1 and 2 of this series that CIN’s strength was PITCHing, White Sox was BATting. Reds had a much better starter pitching today and much better relief.
The R column doesn’t mean much back then because starters typically pitched an entire game. TC Sim currently relies on data from 1970 – 2018, far into the future. It will be possible to simulate the above but not right now and not during this series of posts. Eyeballing the tier numbers White Sox should be favored in this game based upon their Lineup advantage.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lefty_Williams_CHA | 2.81 | 0.543 | 297 | 1.33 |
| Slim_Sallee_CIN | 5.14 | 0.602 | 227.7 | 3.03 |
The Starters tables are working. Lefty Williams was one of the eight players who are playing for someone other than Charles Comiskey. He had a decent but not stellar regular season and represents the second best starter in the White Sox rotation. We’ll cover starting rotations later in this series.
CHA Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | PA | R | RBI | TB | H | W | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.06 | 1 | Shano_Collins_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | OF-RF |
| +017+ | 5.17 | 2 | Eddie_Collins_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2B |
| +020+ | 5.00 | 3 | Buck_Weaver_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3B-SS |
| +010+ | 6.57 | 4 | Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | OF-LF-RF |
| +021+ | 4.98 | 5 | Happy_Felsch_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CF-OF |
| +053+ | 2.65 | 6 | Chick_Gandil_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1B |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | 7 | Swede_Risberg_CHA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | SS-1B |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | 8 | Ray_Schalk_CHA | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | CR |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | 9 | Lefty_Williams_CHA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | PITCH |
| XXXXX | 1.32 | 10 | Fred_McMullin_CHA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3B |
| TOTAL | 24.60 | X | TIER=3.91 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 1 | X |
During the 2019 season we maxed out tiers at tier 4.00. It may be necessary to max out at tier 5.00 however. During this season Houston, Yankees, and Twins all registered 30+ WAA lineups during certain games. The distribution among lineups of 30 MLB teams is different than 16 MLB teams. This will be examined further when we run numbers on all seasons between 1919 and 2019. The above shows White Sox with pretty much a top of league lineup. Unfortunately for White Sox bettors the guys in red were being paid not to score runs. In this game Ray Shalk, one of the players not in on the fix, had 2 RBIs and a Run contributing to 3/4 of all CHA scoring for today.
Shoeless Joe and Buck Weaver racked up hits but had no run production to show for it. In baseball the only stat that matters in determining who wins a game is the R column, not the H column. As a team CHA racked up 10 hits only scoring 2 runs. On average a team should score around 5 runs on 10 hits. CHA had a total of 12 total bases or 1.2 bases per hit which is also well below the historical average of 1.5. It means at least 8 of those 10 hits were singles.
All players in on the fix knew they had to pad stats to keep suspicion off them. Right now there may be rumors of a fix but fans don’t know for sure and they don’t know which players are in on it. We know because we’re from the future.
CHA Pitchers
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Outs | PA | ER | R | SO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +047+ | 2.81 | Lefty_Williams_CHA | 24 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 1 | SP |
| TOTAL | X | X | 24 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
White Sox did not give up an unearned run during this game.
CIN Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | PA | R | RBI | TB | H | W | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -079- | -1.51 | 1 | Morrie_Rath_CIN | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2B |
| XXXXX | 0.50 | 2 | Jake_Daubert_CIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1B |
| +024+ | 4.26 | 3 | Heinie_Groh_CIN | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3B |
| +033+ | 3.53 | 4 | Edd_Roush_CIN | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | CF-OF |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | 5 | Pat_Duncan_CIN | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | LF-OF |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | 6 | Larry_Kopf_CIN | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | SS |
| XXXXX | -0.15 | 7 | Greasy_Neale_CIN | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | OF-RF-LF |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | 8 | Bill_Rariden_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | CR |
| XXXXX | -0.53 | 9 | Slim_Sallee_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | PITCH |
| TOTAL | 6.44 | X | TIER=0.43 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | X |
The Reds on the other hand scored 4 runs on only 4 hits but 6 walks. The surest way to get someone on base is to let them walk.
CIN Pitchers
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Outs | PA | ER | R | SO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +018+ | 5.14 | Slim_Sallee_CIN | 27 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 2 | SP |
| TOTAL | X | X | 27 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Both runs White Sox scored in this game were the result of an error. We saw in team status how CIN had very positive unearned runs above average. There were only 3 strikeouts between the two teams and not many in Game 1 which is kind of interesting and something to look into.
Reds are up 2-0 and now they travel to Chicago for game 3. The fixers are breathing easy as it appears their players are honoring their contracts with them. We’ll cover Game 3 next. Until then ….