Today we’ll look at Game 3 of the 1919 World Series. Game 2 of this series took place on 10/2/1919 in Cincinnati and Game 3 takes place the next day on 10/3/1919 in Chicago. How did they get from Cincinnati to Chicago in one day and be ready to play World Series class baseball? There were no Interstates, no airplanes. They would have had to take a bus. Not sure. We just crunch numbers here.
Update: They took the train. They ate and drank on the train, slept on the train, and sometimes got into their uniforms on the train. Here’s a good article about early baseball and train travel. The trip takes 9 1/2 hours today on Amtrak. Wouldn’t be surprised if it took the same amount of time back then too.
Game 3 Line Score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Score | |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 |
Formatting the above still a work in progress. White Sox scored early and those were the only runs needed. Let’s look at handicapping for this game.
CIN CHA 191910030
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 52 | x | X | X | 0.60 | 1.51 | 1.93 |
| CHA | 36 | x | X | X | 4.11 | -0.12 | -2.34 |
The WAA and R columns are static for all games in a series. Lineup (L) doesn’t change much from game to game so that leaves the Starter (S) column making the most difference. Relief was insignificant during this period of baseball.
TC Simulation relies on Lineup -> Starter , Lineup -> Relief
For now Lineup -> Relief can be eliminated. The Away advantage would be
L(away) – S(home) = 0.60 – (-0.12) = 0.72 rounded up to the integer 1.
L(home) – S(away) = 4.11 – 1.51 = 3.6 rounded up to the integer 4.
In simulation the home lineup above will score more runs per game than the away lineup so CHA would be favored in this game. By how much is unknown right now. The simulation dataset for 16 team seasons is an off season work in progress. Handicapping tables give a quick visual as to which team is favored based upon strength of L, S, and R (for modern era baseball).
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray_Fisher_CIN | 3.49 | 0.590 | 174.3 | 1.51 |
| Dickey_Kerr_CHA | 0.80 | 0.517 | 212.3 | -0.12 |
White Sox start the worst of their three starter rotation. Fischer is another well above average decent (not great) starter in CIN’s rotation.
CIN Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | PA | R | RBI | TB | H | W | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -079- | -1.51 | 1 | Morrie_Rath_CIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2B |
| XXXXX | 0.50 | 2 | Jake_Daubert_CIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1B |
| +024+ | 4.26 | 3 | Heinie_Groh_CIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3B |
| +033+ | 3.53 | 4 | Edd_Roush_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CF-OF |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | 5 | Pat_Duncan_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | LF-OF |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | 6 | Larry_Kopf_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | SS |
| XXXXX | -0.15 | 7 | Greasy_Neale_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | OF-RF-LF |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | 8 | Bill_Rariden_CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CR |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | 9 | Ray_Fisher_CIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | PITCH |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | 10 | Sherry_Magee_CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | OF-LF |
| TOTAL | 6.64 | X | TIER=0.60 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | X |
According to TB all hits singles, only one walk. CIN bats were flat which could have been due to sleeping on the bus all night between Cincinnati and Chicago.
Note: WAA numbers and Tiering have been changed. Tiers are now calculated based upon end of August lineups and Starting rotations using official end of year data. In previous parts data was taken from daily snapshots which were derived from an incomplete season causing error in the valuation.
Using end of August rosters is a more accurate representation of the core of each team. In modern baseball rosters get expanded in September that change valuations. For tiering we need to know the distribution of lineup, starter, and relief valuations and September rosters can distort that.
Tables in Part 2 and Part 3 will not be changed. The only thing off are WAAs and ranking but just a little bit. The numbers here are more accurate and this process will be used from now on for every World Series report like this.
CIN Pitching
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Outs | PA | ER | R | SO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +034+ | 3.49 | Ray_Fisher_CIN | 21 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | SP |
| XXXXX | 0.97 | Dolf_Luque_CIN | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | RP |
| TOTAL | X | CIN | 24 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Fischer gives up 2 earned runs in 7 innings which is around par for what his seasonal numbers would suggest. CIN gives up another unearned run which is unusual considering their seasonal very positive unearned runs above average.
Update: After spot checking the historical dataset names tend to get stuck in my head and Dolf Luque was one of them because he had an extraordinary year 4 years from now in 1923.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +001+ | 15.25 | 322.0 | 1.93 | 37 | 4 | Dolf_Luque_CIN | PITCH | 1923 |
This was one of the top 25 highest single season WAA post 1900 according to this data model. Babe Ruth was #2 that year although WAR has Ruth #1, Luque #2. That’s how I remembered. Today he pitched in relief and 1919 was his 4th year in the league.
End of Update
CHA Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | PA | R | RBI | TB | H | W | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.94 | 1 | Nemo_Leibold_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | OF-RF-LF |
| +017+ | 5.17 | 2 | Eddie_Collins_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2B |
| +020+ | 5.00 | 3 | Buck_Weaver_CHA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3B-SS |
| +010+ | 6.57 | 4 | Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | OF-LF-RF |
| +021+ | 4.98 | 5 | Happy_Felsch_CHA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | CF-OF |
| +053+ | 2.65 | 6 | Chick_Gandil_CHA | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1B |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | 7 | Swede_Risberg_CHA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | SS-1B |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | 8 | Ray_Schalk_CHA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CR |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | 9 | Dickey_Kerr_CHA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | PITCH |
| TOTAL | 25.65 | X | TIER=4.11 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | X |
In the last part CHA had a maxed out Tier 5.00 Lineup. The new tiering distribution using end of August rosters, official end of year data, lowered that significantly even though their Total WAA rose to 25+. This is an extremely good lineup which is comparable to what HOU and NYA put up 100 years later in 2019 playoffs.
Shoeless Joe goes 2/3 scoring a run and Chick Gandil who purportedly organized the 8 players gets 2 RBIs.
CHA Pitching
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Outs | PA | ER | R | SO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.80 | Dickey_Kerr_CHA | 27 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | SP |
| TOTAL | X | CHA | 27 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Dickey Kerr was not part of the fix which might be because he wasn’t good enough. He had a good chance of losing on his own based upon the above. He only gives up 0 runs in 9 innings White Sox win with their worst starter.
The White Sox are down 2-1 in this 5 to win up to 9 game series. Lots of games left to be played. Game 4 tomorrow. Until then ….